A touch of hopium going into the week... nice little setup for volume to come in to on Monday. 

How absolutely bonkers that statement would have sounded just a couple years ago.  Luckily it still seems unlikely, but it would not be shocking.  This is the scenario in which a little bucket of silver rounds may also come in handy.

Lord Jesus,  I have become some sort of cyber-prepper.  I have also stockpiled a little kCal dense food along with a great deal of ammo.  May my children joke about crazy old dad some decades into the future as they sort through all my shit.

Exactly.  It is, and has been for a LONG TIME a hedge, not an "investment".

I think for sure we are ripe to see some sort of financial collapse.  There is a lot of nuance as to what the "Elites" are currently trying to do.  They are orchestrating this take down, while they give us our bread and circuses in Ukraine and dividing us to keep us going in circles.

And every now and then they tip their hand...

“We need to frame bitcoin globally because, you know… if there’s a loophole, that loophole will be used. Global cooperation is absolutely necessary. It could be initialized first at the G7, then at the G20. “

Loophole to/from what?  She was not talking about darknet markets, or taxes.

She was talking about a way out of the cattle call they have been planning for decades and are executing NOW.

In the end it really is a curse to be able to see what is happening but have no way to stop it, or even wake up a SINGLE ONE of the sleepers around us.  Ah well...  I have a decent chair to sit in for the watching.

The reason I say land is the riskiest is draconian governments can simply seize it.  And the dirtiest secret is they do not even have to.  They can also tax all your value out of it.

As to gold... Yeah. if we start mining asteroids... But until then it is one of the hardest monies we have ever known, and has a track record like no other.  I see it as a hedge against mad max scenarios.  Well not really.  Particularly silver would be better for those. But in the case the world economic system goes down the toilet gold will MOST DEFINITELY reflect that value.

We even have precedent for this.  Look at the price of gold in German Marks between 1919-1923. 

Even if world reserve currencies do not collapse as bad as that one did gold's stable price will protect a person's value.  Of course if an ounce of gold will be a very fine suit today, and we have a USD/Fiat collapse, then when gold is worth 50kUSD it may still only buy a fine suit.  But that is way better than the $2000.

Gold has really small upside compared to Bitcoin.  But it also has very little risk.  That is why I mention it along with real estate and Bitcoin.  But also when I say gold, I generally mean "and silver".  You can live on your land.  You can hedge against all kinds of bad scenarios with precious metals.  You can both SAVE and take advantage of the price rise of a bootstrapping asset with Bitcoin.

I am personally very satisfied with my extraordinarily lopsided distribution in these three assets.  I have enough land to live on.  I have enough Silver in case of nuclear war, and I have plenty of that other thing, whatever it was.

All those who are arrogant are an abomination to the Lord; be assured, they will not go unpunished.

Before his downfall a man's heart is proud, but humility comes before honor.

A man's pride shall bring him low, but honor shall uphold the humble in spirit.

Frankly if I were Do Kwon I would be VERY afraid for my life.  A LOT of people lost a LOT of money.  Some may have considered taking their own lives. But I guarantee you there are also some he effectively screwed out of "size" who, when they are thinking deadly thoughts, are not thinking of themselves.

As usual you are not reading my context.

My point is RETAIL (not the WO thread) is NOT interested in BTC right now.  They have not been since they bought between 13k-20 in 2017, held and lost at least half their money when they got out, or shifted into garbage coins.

Institutional buyers have been filing in over the last 5 years, and some of the smarter one offs.  Billionaires, home offices and the like.

I would say the average WO denizen is somewhere between 20-80% in Bitcoin.  But the average monkey jppg buyer has less than 5%.

The list I am making saves the best for last and puts it in all caps.  But land and precious metals are also going to be safe havens in the coming storm.  The riskiest of the three is land, with bitcoin coming in second.  Metals are not risky, they are boring and reliable... and may just hold their relative value at best.

I personally have a small cache of silver and gold, and own my own home.  I am not going to reverse mortgage my home to buy Bitcoin, and I do not need to.

The rest of your post is good enough including the reference to various scenarios.  I should clarify my moderately bearish up/down/sideways numbers are meant to be interpreted as VERY short term.

I think right now we are biased to choppy/down scenarios.  But I do not think we go very far down... we are right around the 200DMA currently.   And with a good non trivial chance at going up from here.  The reason for this is the macro environment is horrifying. Ultimately this makes Bitcoin more valuable.  Bigly so. But maybe not during the next month.

I will also point out that while you call me dumb over and over, I was here at this forum years before you, and I expect also "in bitcoin" then too...  Dumb luck I guess. (It really was... but so was yours )

C'mon little corn!

I honestly do not think retail (the masses) were EVER buying seriously since the 2017 runup.  We have seen very little retail action.  I believe there is a growing groundswell of millennial and Gen-Z DCA buyers.  But their footprint is relatively small still.  It will honestly take that groundswell moving into Gen-x and Boomers for it to really start to have an impact.


Even though the dollar value of Bitcoin was larger this time around it was only between 1.x-3 times bigger.  SO we could expect that volume may decrease, but not this much.

The reason for this?  I may have said it too many times, but it is because the big buys that actually DID move the price were happening at OTC desks.  Bitcoin OGs with 5 digits plus of BTC were unloading behind the scenes into the hands of mostly institutional and "home office" investors so they can secure their earthly comfort while holding enough behind to never need to worry.

The masses ONLY were interested in DeFi and NFTs again this time. Bitcoin is "Boomercoin".  Novogratz with his stupid tattoo has the even more permanent imprint of his failure in the record of time.  And now we are the point where the dominoes of all the projects similar to Luna are going to go.  I could be wrong, and instead all the people currently calling for an "altseezon" might be right (so many of these it seems) but if I were a big alt investor I would be looking at my holdings wondering where the disease would show up next, and try to frontrun it.

The easy solution is to just divest the alts and put it in safe investments like gold, silver, land and...  BITCOIN.

As I write this post we are 82 blocks deep in the mempool.


Overwhelmingly large amounts of this are 1s/b transaction.  So either large consolidations or some sort of attack.  I am biased to the former, but the latter is not impossible.  In fact I think we stand a chance to see what started with Luna continue on to the next most vulnerable alt available to the people who stand to make incredible amounts of money orchestrating the attack.

On the other had it seems that if people are actually doing this as a planned attack on "crypto" then they must realize that after a certain number of these failures they will drive an ENORMOUS amount of smarter retail straight into Bitcoin.  All that missing volume that was aimed at monkey  jpegs, dog coins, and various smart contract ponzis will either get out of "crypto" entirely, or run to the safety of hard assets like precious metals, real estate and BITCOIN.  If either by design or by natural forces we see the next alt go down, then the next, then the next...

When do we expect to see the market waking up and abandoning crypto altogether?

I am having a hard time figuring the impact this will have on BTC.  But my gut thinks it could look something like this:

50% - Lower price
30% - Chop
20% - Rocket

Because enough people are going to exit ALL crypto to probably hurt bitcoin's price, or possibly keep it mostly even.  But if humans are smarter than I am giving them credit for in my above estimation then we will see a fire lit under our little rocket.

If your eyes are open you can see that SOMEONE is executing a planned, controlled demolition of western crony-capitalism.  And BITCOIN is either part of that plan or a huge bete-noir for those planners.  I think it is WAY more likely the latter which means they are going to HAVE to try to destroy it or render it somehow neutered.  But we know how this goes.  They can't.

So where do we go next?  Feck if I know.

I think since it is the weekend this sagging price is not as scary as it might be during the week.  We are starting to clear out the mempool, and as long as we do not re-test that V I think we still have a decent chance.

But it is fairly disappointing that we are not bouncing the way we should be if that V was a bottom...  

I really don't think we can go LOTS lower... and I still hope this is the bottom but it aint acting like it.

However, it is hard to imagine we do not see lots of support for Bitcoin at these prices...  But again the volume DOES scream weekend...

I might regret not leaving myself more $$$ to spend.





I actually slipped on my vote here... I picked a zone which i think is MOST unlikely.

After this post I will observe this threads preference not to talk about this topic...

But you are talking about data you know nothing about and drawing conclusions in your imagination.  I helped set up covid ICUs at multiple hospitals.  I have been on those units, full of dying people at times during the pandemic.  (The one you said did not exist)

The point that the pandemic is exaggerated, and was used to control the greater population, and that there were lots of dirty data in some settings is something I not only agree with, but probably know more about than you.

I just get sick of the constant insinuation that the people who i saw struggling to breathe and dying in hospital beds did not die of Covid, and the other insinuation that the good people who worked double shift after double shift to save as many of them as possible were in on some giant healthcare scam bug the SHIT out of me.

I know those nurses.  Including the ones that would not touch the vaccine with a 10 foot pole because of what they saw.

Last time I say it.  Nuance is important.

That's weird.  I know three people who died from the imaginary virus, and one who it gave a heart attack to.  All people in risk groups.  Also as a hospital data professional I was in part responsible for building the dashboards that tracked the progress of the imaginary disease.

Nuance is important.  There is no doubt that the greater contagion was the mind virus you mention.  But the design of that is to polarize us into extreme groups so we can be easily controlled.

When I was a kid you could also divide the population into two groups.  There were the "popular" kids who knew what to wear, and what music was currently cool, and what Saturday Night Live punchline should be currently said.  And then there was the other group, who was also aware of all those things but rejected them. We (I was in the latter group) made sure NOT to wear those clothes, made fun of the music and mocked the Saturday Night Live one liners.

It took me a while to realize we were really all playing the same game.

OK...

For this to look like our pukey capitulation event, I think we need to get well up over that 32k area pretty quick...  If we keep following this downward trendline I do NOT see how we can be done yet.  And I do not expect we should see this take super long.


Too bad we are going into a weekend too, though at least maybe the mempool will clear out a little.

Speaking of which, I think several things are going on there.  Some consolidation transactions for example.  But it would be nice for some of the on chain guys to talk about where this traffic is going.  Is all that stuff BTC flowing TO exchanges?  Or more FROM?  I suppose I am afrid it's people lining up with the whole intent of getting out of Bitcoin just like the markets and taking whatever gains or losses they have at this point.

Of course we would all rather it be folks pulling coins into cold storage.  right?

WOW!  

I imagine all the crypto-bro incels are either in rapture when they see Natalie Brunell, or very frustrated that someone as pretty as her is so articulate in this arena... But she just KILLS this little segment on Tucker.

https://twitter.com/noisevault/status/1525101604931764230?s=20&t=YhwAjEH9W3DMjjYqjGnZKw

She does make a teeny verbal slip, sadly... but otherwise such a great job explaining to the masses what is important about Bitcoin, and what is actually happening in the world of money right now.



(also does Tucker sit in front of the mirror and practice whatever that face is he always makes?)

I just want to say one thing.  It is gonna sound like I am bragging.  Maybe I am, but I am just happy about it.

If you know my posts, you have read all my bullish theories of what things I think are going to happen with BTC.  In brief I think eventually we break out of the extremities of the "halving cycle", and we will see price mirror adoption and look like an S curve.  At some point rising crazy fast breaking models like S2F to the upside.

I have been very open in saying I think this "cycle" has a high chance of doing just that.  But I have also said I think the next most possible scenario would be a somewhat muted version of the 4 year cycle, with the "supercycle" occurring later on, perhaps next time etc...

Well it currently looks like that is what is currently happening.  And along the way I have also said I would not think that going through that would have the soul crushing effect I felt during the 2018+ bear.  And based on that supposition I have chosen to NOT sell any Bitcoin during this cycle.  The theory being that I am fine to withstand another one of those monstrous swings.  And although I am liquidating other assets right now for healthcare reasons I am not touching the Bitcoin...  I do not need to, and do not want to.

Well, I was wrong about the "cycle" (maybe?) but right about me. 

I have not been even really interested in the Bitcoin price for quite some time.  I took all the widgets off my phone, and just don't care.  Part of my ability to succeed in this way is understanding that to pull this off, I kind of have to NOT trade.  Because if I do that then the widgets go back on my phone etc.

I am perfectly happy waiting to see it continue to blow people's minds, and tip my hat to those of you (LFC, Bob, others?) with the fortitude and wisdom to trade the tops and bottoms well...  I just don't do well with that.  But I am good at holding.  And the last 11 years have taught me that money does not deserve to be so important that it makes you miserable.  It cannot get me what I really want.  And neither can the lack of it take away the things that are of real value.

So the only scenario in which I lose is if "they" can kill Bitcoin.  Which I honestly think we are seeing the beginning of a plan to try to do, possibly.  But I think the chance of "them" pulling that off is somewhere near the chance of the sun not coming up tomorrow.  At the worst their efforts will cause some exaggerated price swings, and a delay of the inevitable.

Oh and one more thing...  I *STILL* do not think this "cycle" is over.  And we might still see that S curve start reflecting in the price sooner rather than later.

Where dat bounce doh?

I am fairly sure he turned it around and his actual name is ttaM.

Pretty sneaky, this guy.

Good grief.

There's not even a dead cat.  This thing has just been reduced down to nearly nothing.  It is not even a penny anymore.  I sure am glad I did not take the bounce gamble I thought about for nearly 1 second before deciding I like my money too much.

Now #139 in market cap with ~$300mm cap.

Those bagholders.

I know this is not a shitcoin thread... but this is magnificent, and it is going to have a profound effect  on many things...  legally, regulatory etc...  Woof.

What an absolute knob that Do Kwon fucker is.

I have known zero about Luna, or UST (obvious affinity marketing) or him until now.

I am a laid back guy that values mercy over judgement, but I honestly hope he loses everything including his freedom.

The story that is NOT being talked about yet is lost in the significant chaos we are seeing as the dust settles.  This was NOT an accident.  The was a CAREFULLY planned, and very well funded attack.  Meant to produce effects on multiple assets, and used to tremendous advantage by the planners.

That Hoskinson jack-handle also needs to be immediately investigated as well, as he is might be in on it with all the smoke he is blowing.

The good side of this is, though it will be used to try to delegitimize ALL of the "space" it is going to just strengthen Bitcoin's security and image in the end.

Purchase made.

Last time I bought something this big was March 2020.  

More USD, but got Less BTC.

I suppose it will generally be that way over time!