The node I am working on today.  Takes 3.4watts.  It's on 24/7.  It costs less than 1 cent a day to run, and under 3 dollars a year.

It uses less energy than a nightlight.  It would be considered EXTREMELY environmentally friendly.

I have exactly ZERO problem with this existing.  Just like if you want to buy only organic apples.  Or more apropos if you choose to buy your energy from a provider that buys 100% renewable to offset your use (They market this like you are actually using only renewable energy when in fact you are paying for the production, not the use of renewables... you house uses energy from coal, just like you next door neighbor who does not give a crap).

So if people want to participate in, and fund businesses that produce "GREEN" bitcoin?  Fine.

But the moment the market starts to try to differentiate between UTXOs, or some draconian legislation goes into effect.  Then I have a problem.

Thing is they will learn the hard way like everyone has who tries to attack bitcoin.  But it *could* delay the journey for all of us.

Yeah...  But I wanted to offer to my brethren first...  Otherwise I will likely choose more randomly/anonymously.

Plus there is virtually no delay.  Lightning payments settle instantly.  When have we ever had that?  BOOM money just went from Chicago to Ghana in less than 5 seconds, and it's DONE.  And peer to peer.

This is a Trojan horse, and jack knows it i think.  Because eventually why use the banks on either end at all?  Right now they are doing all this extra work to keep the banks in the loop.

It was like those people who printed out their emails to read them in the 90s.

I like where you put the little elbow.  I surely do not know as much as you about technical things (I still have no idea what the ichimoku clouds are)... but it seems to me that somewhere between 50-56k might be a bit of a fight, but there is a certain point where not that much is holding honeybadger back...

HEY WOers!

I am cleaning out some of my problem channels on my little Raspiblitz node and am going to have some incoming liquidity to aim at new nodes.  I was starting to research what's out there that would likely increase my connectivity, and traffic.  And it's really hard to do... It's hard to see what channels would be USED by the network etc.

Then I had a thought!

Maybe one of you might want some inbound liquidity?  I certainly understand the whole OpSec angle etc... but I personally do not mind if you don't!  Particularly if you are a regular denizen here. 

So let me know...  In about 4 hours I will have as much as 3 million sats to open a channel with maybe more depending on if I close some more weak channels today cooperatively.  But would also be willing to go down to 500k.  My channel size philosophy has changed over the months.  I started out not really caring about size, then I set the min channel size i would accept at 1mm. And it's still there.  But with MPP active there are arguments for smaller channels as well.  But I think I still prefer aiming for 1mm at the lowest.

I am a "BOS" ranked node with a score of 11940298 putting it in the top 200 nodes. I expect that to go up a little bit as I add back the channels. I am well connected.  Well maintained on this little node, and plan to leave it up indefinitely.  I have a much larger node running on server hardware, but I might take that one down as it costs me money.  And if so, I may also migrate sats over to this little one.  But at the moment this little guy has about 2/3rds of a bitcoin liquidity, but heavily skewed to inbound liquidity, so opening a channel to you would help me!

Anyone interested?

PS.  I used to keep my channels fairly balanced.  But this is 1.  A LOT of work and not easy to do, and 2. Futile in my humble opinion.  My node keeps itself fairly well balanced with relatively ample liquidity on both sides.  So I do not care as much if channels get out of "balance" as long as they don't just sit dormant.  in fact some of my most active channels tend to have all the liquidity sitting on one side or the other of the channel and then whoosh over to the other side...

Well... That's more than one whole bitcoin!

But it was probably ETH or some other shit tokens.

Actually the comments are the best part.  VERY VERY negative on "crypto".  Funny that many of us here would agree with them to some extent.



Note the upvotes as well as the "Editors Pick" tag.  LOL.

I hope I will live long enough to see the end of "Still Early".

That's still sightly nice quality... maybe next time try some pink.. but otherwise, yesh!

Was just thinking.

Bitcoin has built a big brand.  Most people in the US (I would guess) have HEARD of it.

But what percentage of us have bought it, or used it (inset your own country if you like)?

Is there ANY chance that number of people does NOT start going up?

It's gonna be pretty soon when we start to really notice it, isn't it?

You have more info than me.  And the buys could have happened on an exchange publicly.  My thoughts are 100% speculation... no facts.   But if you were Armstrong (I think I remember a story is was CB?  But either way)  And you had a customer who wanted to get 9 figures of USD into bitcoin... how would you do it?

It's fun to imagine Saylor in his Bathrobe mashing buy on 1k lots of bitcoin.  But not only would this take a looooong time but it would BLOW up the price.

I would love to read more about how they actually did it... is that out there somewhere?

You know one very interesting factor is how quickly the smart money realizes the absolute waste of time that the alts are.  Preston Pysh (I think) said at BitBlockBoom this last weekend that managers of 9 and 10 figure accounts are not going to trust a leader of a blockchain project who picks his nose and sticks it to the wall to not change monetary policy on them... again.

We know the dumb money will never realize this.  But the big money is starting to coalesce around the Corn as it should...

Once the somewhat less smart money starts to abandon the sinking ships of the bigblock nightmares, where is that money going to go?

Tether?

This idea leaves out the bearish option (lol).  When you see the two major cycle tops dropping.  This is a "Dave the Wave" sort of prediction.  That the parabola is softening all the way up.  So 2017 had less magnitude than 2013 (55%), and 2021 could have less than 2017 making a top of something like 150k possible:

2021=2013 -> 542k
2021=2017 -> 300k
2021=2017x.55 -> 150kish.

BUT!!!  It also leaves out the "supercycle" scenario... the one in which 2021 is BIGGER than either previous top.

I have no model for that one...  but I'd take it.

Who was it?

Coinbase articles about rolling out bech32 are online from 2019?  I can't figure out what big exchange it was.  I was assuming coinbase.  That jerkface has been one of the worst things to happen to bitcoin.  It's a shame honey badger has not destroyed him.

And as to nations coming on board...  we are in the calm before the storm.

We like to talk about "fuck you money".  What about the poor billions in nations enslaved by the current system... what happens when they say "fuck you"?  Oh and it's not like us "rich westerners" are not also just farm animals to them.  Like George Carlin said: "It's a BIIIG club, and YOU AINT in it".

No one is more aware of the way the bullshit has been run than those in developing nations.  Now many of them (see Venuzeula) are on the take... but some of them (ES or Tonga) are not... and in time they are all going to drop out of the rigged game that the rich countries have been playing with them for >50 years.



https://twitter.com/noisevault/status/1432390064605118465

There we go!! You got this!

(I feel like we have been talking about supply shocks in one form or another for a decade...  but this time its DIFFERENT! )

You know... to be completely serious.  (I MEAN IT)

It is inevitable. 

There is going to come a point where even the speculators say... OK I am not selling into *THIS*.  And we realize how minuscule the actual real liquid BTC float actually is.

I have been speculating for months (maybe over a year now) that most of the action for bitcoin trade has been happening away from the retail exchanges.  I think most of the big trades are happening on OTC desks.  This is where Microstrategy, and Greyscale et al buy their corn.  It's not like they use Tradeogre... lol.  And really what we are seeing cleared out are OG whales and miners backstock that they want to part with.  I have speculated that there has been a LOT of this.  Early bitcoiners with 4-5 digit holdings are most certainly hedging all kinds of regulatory risk as well as wanting to just go ahead and buy the nice house or diversify into real estate, collectables etc.  While the miners also have back stock, and are willing to sell X amount for either the same sorts of reasons, or for cap-ex stuff.

But what happens after the third or fourth El Salvador rolls out.  And the retail markets hit phase II.

So far  (as in since 2010) it's been rich folks in the east and west speculating.  But more and more it's going to be users in developing countries using it to trade and save. And eventually we run out of loose float.  Many of the hands buying are pretty strong...

I honestly do not think we have seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the feedback loop we all know is possible.

Call it whatever you like... supply shock?  Ok.

Just to keep this ball rollin...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_shock



According to Wikipedia:
A supply shock is an event that suddenly increases or decreases the supply of a commodity or service, or of commodities and services in general. This sudden change affects the equilibrium price of the good or service or the economy's general price level.

In the short run, an economy-wide negative supply shock will shift the aggregate supply curve leftward, decreasing the output and increasing the price level.[1] For example, the imposition of an embargo on trade in oil would cause an adverse supply shock, since oil is a key factor of production for a wide variety of goods. A supply shock can cause stagflation due to a combination of rising prices and falling output.

In the short run, an economy-wide positive supply shock will shift the aggregate supply curve rightward, increasing output and decreasing the price level.[1] A positive supply shock could be an advance in technology (a technology shock) which makes production more efficient, thus increasing output.

Technical analysis
Negative supply shock

The diagram to the right demonstrates a negative supply shock; The initial position is at point A, producing output quantity Y1 at price level P1. When there is a supply shock, this has an adverse effect on aggregate supply: the supply curve shifts left (from AS1 to AS2), while the demand curve stays in the same position. The intersection of the supply and demand curves has now moved and the equilibrium is now point B; quantity has been reduced to Y2, while the price level has been increased to P2.

The slope of the demand curve determines how much the price level and output respond to the shock, with more inelastic demand (and hence a steeper demand curve) causing there to be a larger effect on the price level and a smaller effect on quantity.

Mempool kind of heating up a bit...  So far nothing out of the ordinary, but it looks like a pretty good splash forming... let's see!

Compared to rest of the month does not stand out... but the spike seems to be forming quickly.  Good to watch.



I noticed because I went to force close an inactive channel, and I paid like 3x what I needed to in fees, and then it did not confirm... went to look and we had gone from 1 block deep to 6 deep very fast.

Oh quit your grumping!  I am very conscientious around here and respect the maximalist vibe etc. I am most certainly a Bitcoin maximalist myself... but I am also a privacy maximalist.  So I end up a little less black and white in my thinking, and simply think that until Bitcoin inherits Monero's privacy... Monero is a candidate to act as both Bitcoin's privacy layer, as well as a way for Bitcoin to be somewhat out of the line of fire from governments insofar as the bad press from DNMs and other nefarious activity.

AND you have inspired me to buy myself a nice Monero mug to go with my mug with the genesis block on it!    

Also, have y'all seen this?  Interesting times.   https://unstoppableswap.net/ 

I suppose there is probably a pretty thriving Bitcoin meetup around here...  I am not quite a OPSEC careful as another WO member who *might* live in this town lol... and is moving out east a little.  You know i bet I could find him if I go to Tyler and say, "Hey any of you know about that guy building the racetrack out here somewhere?"

But I do not really know what a Bitcoin meetup would do other than put me at some risk.  I have thought about consulting, maybe even throwing some "What the heck is Bitcoin" presentations and start that sort of business...  in which case all these meetups and conferences become more important.

Nah, I'm good.

It's funny.. BitBlockBoom is right here in my backyard (I could literally walk to the bar they meet at one of the nights) and every year i think "I should go and hang out at the most maximallist Bitcoin convention of them all."

Then I realize that there is no way my contrarian soul would get away without wearing my Monero shirt, and the shit I would get for that, plus the price, tends to stop me.

I bet it'd be fun though...

Any of you go to that thing?