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1641  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 10:21:58 AM
Everyone just shut up and trade. Thank the Chinese for all this magnificient volatility and profit making opportunities. It's not like you don't get ample TA indicators to tell to buy and sell when the trend is changing. The candle didn't just go straight down to 700 to 340 or straight up from 340 to 540 or straight down thereafter and then just die at the new level. No. There are ample bounces, indicators, and opportunities. You have hours to realize the 1H MACD is going down and then days to realize the 4H and 1D are going down before most of the damage is gone. But instead of paying attention you sit there in some state of denial complaining about how chinese shouldn't be able to control the trend. You ignore the chart indicators because of your belief, and then complain later and ask why you are losing. "but... but... it's just china fud. the west should control bitcoin". Well that's too bad. You just have to accept reality and roll with the punches.

I do accept reality, including the reality that I'm just not good enough to trade this, T. We're not as skilled at this as you are, at least I'm not. That's why we're not shutting up.
Take your own advice or give us some more help.  I have to wait for the market to sink significantly lower or just wave it goodbye as it goes farther out of reach. I feel dumb and it's pissing me off.

I was positioned at $427 before you were by a day, but that head-fake dump to $400 threw me off. How did you know to jump in at the same time I jumped out?? It had nothing to do with the 1 hr, 4 HR or 1 day MACD, and it happened in minutes.



Here was my 425 long entry. It did not coincide with any particular MACD cross at that exact time - I cannot always rely on MACD all the time and sometimes I have to react to sudden unsual breakouts by entering on their retracements. In this case, the 1 hour MACD had gone up at $415 about 6 hours ago, but I did not want to enter then because it looked like 4 hour MACD was going down. I think the candle was even just barely red right before this breakout. Then suddenly there is a huge break upwards on high volume. So I look look for the first retracement to enter on, which was at $425.
1642  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 10:02:52 AM
TERA, who admittedly does not do well unless there is a raging bull cycle, is telling people to do more of what he does.

When I say I'm not doing well what I mean is that I'm only increasing my net worth by 4% per week instead of 50% per week. In the post you are referring to, I was pointing out that it would be more efficient if I simply waited for the bull market instead of trading for peanuts during the bear market, to give me a break and let me focus on other things in life.
1643  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 10:00:07 AM
Everyone just shut up and trade. Thank the Chinese for all this magnificient volatility and profit making opportunities. It's not like you don't get ample TA indicators to tell to buy and sell when the trend is changing. The candle didn't just go straight down to 700 to 340 or straight up from 340 to 540 or straight down thereafter and then just die at the new level. No. There are ample bounces, indicators, and opportunities. You have hours to realize the 1H MACD is going down and then days to realize the 4H and 1D are going down before most of the damage is gone. But instead of paying attention you sit there in some state of denial complaining about how chinese shouldn't be able to control the trend. You ignore the chart indicators because of your belief, and then complain later and ask why you are losing. "but... but... it's just china fud. the west should control bitcoin". Well that's too bad. You just have to accept reality and roll with the punches.

Spoken like a true bear turned bull 36 hours ago and $55 higher.

Reasons why I felt bullish the other day:

1. A 3D MACD cross seemed inevitable
2. There were giant surges in altcoins.
3. It broke the linear downtrend line on bitstamp and the logarithmic downtrend line on huobi.
4. A major support level had been broken only to fall $40
5. It bounced all the way back into the middle of the previous trading zone's range, indicating weakness in the downtrend.
6. De-patterning from the 2011 crash due to #4 and #5
7. There were 3 large daily up candles in a row, which hadn't occured since January
8. All of the Chinese bank shutdowns might have in fact been a hoax

Now I realize that none of these are confirmations that a bull market has begun. However, it does make me much less bearish than earlier when I thought we were mimicking a 2011-like crash and heading to $180.
1644  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 09:45:21 AM
Everyone just shut up and trade. Thank the Chinese for all this magnificient volatility and profit making opportunities. It's not like you don't get ample TA indicators to tell to buy and sell when the trend is changing. The candle didn't just go straight down to 700 to 340 or straight up from 340 to 540 or straight down thereafter and then just die at the new level. No. There are ample bounces, indicators, and opportunities. You have hours to realize the 1H MACD is going down and then days to realize the 4H and 1D are going down before most of the damage is gone. But instead of paying attention you sit there in some state of denial complaining about how chinese shouldn't be able to control the trend. You ignore the chart indicators because of your belief, and then complain later and ask why you are losing. "but... but... it's just china fud. the west should control bitcoin". Well that's too bad. You just have to accept reality and roll with the punches.
1645  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 08:58:03 AM
Huobi dump 3 days straight same time, why?
The Chinese are very organized and methodical.
1646  Economy / Speculation / Re: Strong hands on: April 18, 2014, 08:10:05 AM
What is a "strong hand" and a "weak hand"?? Does this imply bitcoin is some kind of investment scheme? I thought it was a currency.

You can invest and trade in currencypairs it's been done for many many years Smiley.
An investment scheme is usually a company that trades for you and tells you it will make a good profit and lose your money Cheesy

"Weak hands"
are people who feel compelled to sell when the market takes a small dip, they give into fear or they have invested with money they cannot afford to lose (also fear). They panic sell. (e.g. The market just went down $10 O-NO quickly sell before it goes down $20. If it does I can't afford to pay back the loan I took out for bitcoin)

"Strong hands"
are people who only sell at their targets. (e.g. I will sell at $2500 or if it goes below $200)

"HODlers"
are the ultimate strong hands and go for max profit or max pain. (e.g. I will sell at 100k or go down with bitcoin. Let's take that sixth whiskey *burp* while the market takes a $600 dive)
When we're evaluating forex market trends such as, say, EUR/USD, do we speak of "strong hands", "weak hands", and "hodlers"?
1647  Economy / Speculation / Re: Strong hands on: April 18, 2014, 07:08:43 AM
What is a "strong hand" and a "weak hand"?? Does this imply bitcoin is some kind of investment scheme? I thought it was a currency.
1648  Economy / Speculation / Re: What spurs the next run? on: April 18, 2014, 07:04:47 AM
Bitcoin opens on eTrade


[citation needed]1
Sorry I interpreted this thread as what would spur the next run, as in hypothetically.
1649  Economy / Speculation / Re: NOTHING have changed? Think again. You've all seen this but nobody understands?? on: April 17, 2014, 07:48:07 PM
Actually it's the other way around.

High bitcoin price => mining is more profitable => more miners

Hashrate follows price, but price does not follow hashrate.




Reality disagrees
Can you point on out on this chart the proof for the causation effect between hashrate to price?
1650  Economy / Speculation / Re: Huobi bank account shut down today 4/17/14 on: April 17, 2014, 07:44:16 PM
Yea some mixed signals coming out for sure.  Seems like some folks want to mislead others in hopes of gaining profits or Bitcoin for cheap.
It's not a conspiracy to get bitcoin cheap - it's a conspiracy to daytrade. Every other week, an alternating piece of Chinese news comes out. Can't you see? Inside traders are making a fortune.
1651  Economy / Speculation / Re: Question... on: April 17, 2014, 07:40:35 PM
Actually if I look Bitstamp's latest address on their website it is now the United Kingdom.  When did that happen? Do they still use a bank in Slovenia even though they are in UK now?
1652  Economy / Speculation / Re: NOTHING have changed? Think again. You've all seen this but nobody understands?? on: April 17, 2014, 07:33:07 PM
no


You don't understand? The harsh rate is the "infrastructure" the winklewoss was talking about to get ready in the "next 6 month" in nov/dec.
I do understand, and I refute. Based on the timing of the Chinese crash, it had to do with the PBOC factor and not hashrate. Most Chinese investors don't even know what a 'hashrate' is and they just trade bitcoin because it is a shadow currency and they are a shadow currency trader in the trillion dollar Chinese shadow currency market.

Actually, the network has gotten weaker because now mining strength is concentrated into large corporations and pools, which could become compromised. The power of the hardware used is less relevant because governments could always buy whatever our current hardware is themselves and they have more money to do it. But why even bother to do that when they could infilitrate the people behind the corporations and pools or use a virus.
1653  Economy / Speculation / Re: What spurs the next run? on: April 17, 2014, 07:22:35 PM
Bitcoin opens on eTrade
1654  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2014, 07:20:47 PM
Bid/Ask sums on stamp becoming very bearish again after a short peak.

Im guessing if we dont see $550 soon we go back down.  (Still HODLING since $390)
The orderbooks are so thin that it doesn't take much to do this at all. Subtract 2K from the buy side and add 3K to the sell side.  Remember mtgox with the 200KBTC orderbooks where these types of amounts of btc were just irrelevant noise?
1655  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2014, 11:42:18 AM
If the dust ever settled in Bitcoin, we'd just be buying and holding and we wouldn't be here trading. The dust is never settled.
1656  Economy / Speculation / Re: NOTHING have changed? Think again. You've all seen this but nobody understands?? on: April 17, 2014, 11:20:34 AM
no
1657  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2014, 11:04:42 AM
Is China banned in Bitcoin today?

1658  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2014, 10:57:23 AM
So buying back in now, because of an expected pump would be a good strategy?
'speculating about imminent news' is another one of those things on the list of traits of losing traders.
1659  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 17, 2014, 10:55:31 AM
Here is the full fractal (1d bars):



Although I think that the probability of this fractal is quite small (but growing every day), it's interesting to visualize the speed of 2011 superbubble in today's prices:

- over 700 by end of April, clearly breaking de 2014 downtrend (10-15 days from now)
- ATH by mid May 2014 (1 month from now)
- around 10,000 by mid June 2014 (2 months from now)
- around 50,000 by mid July 2014 (3 months from now) 100x in just 3 months from now!!!
- around 120,000 by mid Sept 2014 (5 months from now)
- around 5,000 by Oct 2015 (1 year of heavy correction)

If we are over 700 by end of month...

This is legit TA. $250,000 by September confirmed.
1660  Economy / Speculation / Re: Happiness doesn't last long on: April 17, 2014, 10:47:19 AM
Been a while since I haven't seen all the noobs cheering with the usual "to the moon", "10000 by July" and other forms of insanity.
Go to the rpetelia thread and you will see the latest projection for $200,000 by September.
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