21e6 is reportedly an asic manufacturer. They fall in the same category as the mega-mines being deployed by KnC, CT, Bitfury/cex.io and possibly a few others like BFL. You can bet that spoonsomething will join them later.  If I could buy shares in those companies, I certainly would,  as Asic manufacturers are not beholden to the market value of their chips, they can produce them at cost and opt to either self mine or sell them for whatever the greatest fool is willing to pay. Doing the latter generates the funds to invest in a far larger hashing capacity for their own mine later. win-win, but for them, not for you.

There is no way AMT can make good on its promises and debt, I mean anyone enforcing the MPP alone is enough to bankrupt them. If you want to stop them from burning whatever money and assets they still have, /me thinks a hashfast style chapter 7 involuntary bankruptcy is the only way forward.

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Reread my statement pls. I was merely pointing out it was impossible to objectively determine ROI of gigamining at that point, since there was no market price and future dividends could not be established. Theoretically *IF* difficulty was projected to drop dramatically, a profit could still be realized, but of course that was never going to happen. YOu wanted to bet on the statement "will be able to realise a positive ROI ", which is far too vague, Im explaining why. Theoretically, gigamining bond holders where still able to realize a positive ROI, but of course they never would nor did.


I agree. But if you can not sell your shares on an open market, we have no way to objectively assess their value. You claiming to be able to sell them via IRC for a certain price isnt good enough for me.



See above. if cryptx migrates to another open exchange, I have no issue with that and the bet remains valid. THe moment you have to rely on private dealings to establish a price, I will not accept that as criterion for this bet for fairly obvious reasons.



Indeed, they are just like activemining and satoshidice and feedzbirds in the sense that they are selling unregistered securities to raise capital.  As for the reason being weird... you cant be that naive. Did you really expect a court or regulator to order someone to pay damages in bitcoin? The moment authorities get involved, everything will be denominated in legal fiat currency. If I accept this bet with the condition that if/when cryptx is forced to pay a fiat sum that can be converted in to more bitcoin than the IPO was worth, Im effectively betting on a price rise because I think the scenario where cryptx is forced to repay in fiat is fairly likely. You seem to think this is unthinkable, so I cant see why you would object to me winning this bet under those circumstances, regardless of what BTC price does.

If I got a satoshi for every time i heard a similar statement, Id have a bitcoin by now. Such a shame BurtW deleted his historic pirate profit thread.

Anyway, sure if you are lucky, flipping shares after an IPO can give you a nice short term profit. If you dont forget to cash out, and if you only bought a handful. However, since bitcoin securization took off,  there must have been close to 100 mining bonds/shares/contracts/cooperatives/units/whatever listed on all the exchanges. Someone correct me if Im wrong, but out of all of these, afaik exactly ZERO achieved a long term btc denominated positive ROI.

So yeah, I wanna play this game.

Clearly, 6 month exactly. As for taking my 10BTC, I was pretty clear this is about the 0.0975 BTC iPO.


Yes, but I put those provisions in for a reason. You seem unaware of what happened to gigamining and activemining. Gigamining, after consulting with lawyers, was taken off the market, so those bonds were no longer in any way liquid but the issuer continued paying dividends to bondholders (at least to those willing to fork over all their personal information, doxing themselves and sign a small pile of legal documents). Not that these investors ever got a positive ROI, but it would be impossible to say that for certain, at least before a forced buyback at an arbitrary price took place several years after IPO. The odds of a positive ROI only ever were theoretical, like when difficulty would drop by a few orders of magnitude, but in such a scenario I want to avoid you claiming its possible to ROI. If the cryptx units are no longer being traded on the open market, I win.

As for euro/dollar, that was a reference to activemining who is being forced by regulators to offer reimbursement to its investors at IPO price +8% interest (again only to those doxing themselves). This will have be done in fiat, based on the exchange rate at the IPO. Now, in the case of activemining,  BTC price increased about five fold between the IPO and now, so this ends up being a pretty horrible deal, but if the same were to happen to cryptx, and BTC price were to plummet instead of soar, investors could end up with a BTC denominated profit if you convert the reimbursed dollars/euro's in to BTC. Again this is not a situation were I would want to lose the bet, especially since you claim there is no legal risk, and Im already betting plenty on a BTC price rise.

OH, and one more provision I would have to insist on: if regulatory pressure forces cryptx to reimburse shareholders at IPO price (probably plus interest), like happened with activeminer, I also win the bet even if shareholders happen to end up with a profit (which would be EUR denominated). Since you were adamant cryptx isnt violating any regulations, you should have no problem accepting this as term.

Too vague. You might be able to get a positive ROI at some point during those 6 months if you actually sell at the right time and some bigger fool is willing to overpay. After all people made profit trading Pirate bonds too. Heck you could might even be able to spend 10 BTC to make it look like that happened.

Also, if cryptx gets delisted and goes private GigaVPS style, it will be impossible to objectively state if it will still be "possible" to ROI since you wouldnt be able to sell and thus have no market price. Unless you accept that under those circumstances, the value of the bond itself is considered zero and only dividend payments up to that date are considered.

It may well be the same kind of "bank limits": insufficient funds.

 

Anyway, since you seem both sure of your investment, and willing to double down, I have an opportunity for you. I could ask you to borrow me some shares so I can short them, but unfortunately thats not very practical and I dont feel like registering and depending on havelock, so lets make this an escrowed bet. Ill bet you 10BTC that 6 months from now, the sum of cryptx share/bond/'unit' price plus all paid dividends will be less than the 0.0975 IPO price, or shares are no longer publicly tradeable. If you win, you will double your investment, something I dont believe even you will think possible by buying cryptx shares.

Who's game?

Who cares? If cryptx did indeed pay the price you quote, then he made a nice big fat profit for himself, not for you.

IPO was 0.0975 BTC per share for 15GH/s or 6.7 BTC/TH.


Ill take bets on that. But even if you are correct, you just proved my point. Even you dont seem to think the hardware can ever mine back its IPO price, let alone generate profit on top of all the expenses.

Why do you guys worry so much? You will ROI anyway, no matter how late they ship. They guarantee it:


https://advancedminers.com/miner-protection-plan/

Dont forget to screenshot/save that page, may come in handy.

A boom in what? A BTC valuation boom isnt going to help you generate a BTC denominated profit. Au contraire, it will only add fuel to the already explosive network growth (and of course, helps BTC holders like me).

Timing is important, but its even more important to understand the fundamentals of the market. When it comes to asic mining, on average anyone who is directly or indirectly dependent on market prices for their hardware, ie, doesnt produce his own chips,  will get shafted. You may get lucky here and there, with clever or lucky "timing", but those instances are the proverbial exceptions that prove the rule; The odds are firmly stacked against you, and this is inherent to the weird market dynamics of bitcoin mining. Its no coincidence that about the only bitcoin mining related security ever to yield a healthy long term profit for their investors was Asicminer, who produces chips and therefor does not fall in the above category. And even that profit is in the double digits, no more than that.

Far too few people understand this, and they just look for the "least worst" opportunity out there. Since there are so many wannebee investors, they create demand and drive up prices (and directly or indirectly, hashrate) in a market that is zero sum, and the result is that there are no decent opportunities for anyone. Maybe cryptx will be among least worst, but its not gonna yield a BTC denominated profit in the long run. All it will do is funnel capital to the asic vendors and their mega mines who will end up owning this market.

BTW, I should add, cryptx is no fool. If he can avoid regulatory trouble, then he will profit too, regardless of his investors ROI. I suspect he also understands the fundamentals all too well.

Im just giving you the facts, like I have been doing for years. Understanding what most of you fail to understand made me reasonably rich, not through shorting (how I wish I could, Id have been filthy rich!)  but simply by not falling in to the traps everyone else keeps falling in. A >10000% profit in a few short years without doing anything is more than enough for me, that I dont understand why everyone keeps gambling their bitcoins on things that can yield no more than single or low double digit profits at the enormous risk, if not near certainty, of losing them.

But yeah, I also do it because I get some perverse satisfaction from seeing people ignore my advice or vehemently arguing against basic logic, and subsequently losing their coins, time and again.

The regulations where clear enough that a precedent wasnt needed. But more importantly, nothing limits this to US citizens. It applies to anyone or any business soliciting funds from US investors. And that has been explained and detailed many times already, if you dont actively try to block US investors by verifying their identity, then any online solicitation is deemed to be targeting US investors.

Not that EU regulations allow such securities to be issued without registration.

Maybe the newbie can do basic math?  Difficulty is growing at >1% per day (short term even 3%).

1%^7 = 7.2% per week.
1%^30 = ~35% per month

Your shares represent 15 GH/s each. To just keep up with difficulty,  that would need to increase by >35% per month or ~5GH over the next month.
Lets use tsm13's optimistic estimate for mining revenue: 0.002393 BTC/share/week and lets even assume difficulty wouldnt go up this month. 50% reinvestment yields ~0.0005 BTC or a bit over $3.

$3/5GH =$0.6/GH. Good luck with that.

Excellent strategy. If only you had done that ~2 years ago, bought all those "cheap" penny stocks and returned today to cash out your pirate bonds, gigaminng, GLBSE, BTCTC  Bitfunder stock and whatever else was hot back then.  

IN case you missed it, Erik Voorhees has been fined $50K and barred for 5 years from offering bitcoin securities for breaking SEC regulations:

SEC Division of Enforcement director Andrew Ceresney reiterated that entrepreneurs need to remember that the agency’s regulations still apply to bitcoin-related ventures, saying:

“All issuers selling securities to the public must comply with the registration provisions of the securities laws, including issuers who seek to raise funds using bitcoin."

http://www.coindesk.com/sec-eric-voorhees-deal-unauthorized-securities-sales/

Please note that the issuer of the security was targeted here, not the exchange (at least not yet), so forget the argument that because Havelock or whatever exchange is located in some fiscal paradise, or even if it is decentralized, that EU or US laws dont apply. Thats hogwash if those securities are being offered to investors in the US or EU. Ive been saying that for years now.

Erik got off extremely cheaply IMO, but thats besides the point. Id suggest you all think what will happen to your bitcoin investments if or when the issuer gets targeted, be it by the US SEC or similar organizations in EU, Japan and elsewhere. A hint of those consequences is offered by what Gigaminng had to do after GLBSE shut down, or the arrangement Ken Slaughter of active mining made with local authorities.

Of course, this being the bitcointalk security subforum, feel free to just carry on as usual