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861  Economy / Services / Re: PB Mining -- 5 year mining contracts! on: December 05, 2014, 07:10:30 AM
A - B = C

Where
A= last week total sales
B= arbitrary profit margin
C= weekly total payouts (capped at theoretical mining revenue)

Recently sales have been dropping, they are now quite close to the theoretical mining revenue. No surprise payouts had to be lowered, otherwise there wouldnt have been a ponzi profit. Next move will likely be to lower prices, but doing so will accelerate the collapse of this ponzi.

862  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Cloud Mining Rating System on: December 04, 2014, 08:14:15 PM
I look at this from a purely probabilistic standpoint.

Would you rather invest in a company that is 50% likely to be a Ponzi, but has a 6 month ROI of 400%, versus a company that is only 10% likely to be a Ponzi but has a 6 month ROI of 2%?

Id invest in neither.

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I disagree somewhat.  A ponzi scheme relies on ever increasing investments for its success.  A ponzi that starts out at 1 BTC, has to get 1.2 BTC new investment in order to provide a 20% ROI to the first investor.  The resulting demand for cash in any ponzi is always an exponential curve

No its not. Not if you assume difficulty is going up. Theoretically a mining ponzi doesnt even have to collapse, if difficulty keeps going up fast enough ensuring investors lose money that way, and if its run by a benevolent scammer.
Of course the latter is pretty darn rare so they vanish much earlier, around the time where there daily/weekly/monthly intake is less than their payouts.
863  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Cloud Mining Rating System on: December 04, 2014, 10:11:12 AM
I applaud the effort, but dont see the logic in scoring simultaneously things like  profitability and legitimacy. They are dramatically different things and should be gauged separately. Who cares what the (apparent) long term profitability of a ponzi is when legitimacy is non existent and therefore the issuer very likely to just run off with your coins?  Of course the obvious ponzi's  can lower prices why should that balance out the fact they are a ponzi?

Longevity by itself is also a misguided criterion.  For a ponzi it merely shows how successful it has been in the past, and to some extend, how likely it is it will collapse soon. Neither seems a positive thing to me. It makes more sense to look at payouts vs sales - if the numbers are available; if for a sustained period the company is paying out more than it receives in fresh sales, that *migh* be an indication of legitimacy, but only if you accept the provided stats as truthful.

There are many more things that IMO dont make sense, but Ill just put here that pbmining has been underpaying for a few weeks now, not been answering  emails or PM's  since quite some time. How it scores anything >0 shows me your rating system is both not correctly applied and flawed.
864  Economy / Services / Re: PB Mining -- 5 year mining contracts! on: December 04, 2014, 09:16:29 AM
Therefore I was asking for another promotion.... Wink

translation: "lets try to convince some new suckers to throw away their money so that I can limit my loss or maybe profit".

865  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Mining contracts on: December 04, 2014, 08:02:51 AM
Before buying anything, and instead of following advice from referral whores with a vested interest in deceiving you, I recommend you read this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=878387.0

866  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Advice for new users regarding CLOUD MINING on: December 04, 2014, 07:58:18 AM
as if you care about the answer. All you care about is spamming your ref link. Your life must be sad.
867  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Cloudmining 101 (spamfree thread) on: December 03, 2014, 10:58:46 PM
Hi I want to ask something.

You're saying Amhash is legit but when I want to buy some hash from amhash, it redirects me to hashie.co which is marked as ponzi.

So, is hashie.co legit or ponzi?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=878387.msg9698863#msg9698863
868  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: CloudMining.website is offering 1 GHs @ 0.001 BTC | 5% affiliate commission on: December 03, 2014, 04:14:44 PM
How much return in BTC per MH/s avg.?

question is not how much, but for how long.
2 or 3 months tops.
869  Economy / Services / Re: CloudMining.website is looking for bitcoin miners | Upto 900 GHs Giveaway on: December 03, 2014, 12:34:22 PM
It is interesting to find out that PB has deleted his statement !!! Shocked

Yep. Im guessing he posted it with a different account than he intended to.
870  Economy / Services / Re: PB Mining -- 5 year mining contracts! on: December 03, 2014, 12:31:12 PM
Hoping that some of the content in this thread isnt true.

That he is underpaying is a proven fact. That not more people are outraged can only be explained by me by the fact those people are glad to still be receiving anything at all.
Its also a fact pbmining has never demonstrated any proof of legitimacy and countless red flags make this as trustworthy as a nigerian 419 scam.

You should have read this before investing: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=878387
871  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Cloudmining without proof of mining [poll] on: December 03, 2014, 07:46:29 AM
I just want to draw the distinction from someone selling you a mining contract as opposed to someone selling you real (!) hash power.  The mining contract sale may or may not have actual mining behind it.  As long as the seller is not presenting it to be actual mining I think it is more or less ok.

I have no problems with synthetic mining contracts that are presented as such, and have a provable way to generate the potential profits. For instance B.MINE and B.SELL on havelock. Thats not a ponzi scheme, even if difficulty drops by 50% tomorrow and remains there, investors in B.MINE will make a profit, the funds will be there, it just happens at the expense of B.SELL holders. Thats VERY different from a mining ponzi.

Secondly you are naive if you believe a mining ponzi operator will pay dividends from his own stash of coins just because he can. He is by definition scamming you if he doesnt have the hashrate he is selling. What makes you think an anonymous scammer will voluntarily give out his profits and potentially even make a huge personal loss on the entire scam,  instead of maximizing his profits by running away the moment divs > sales ?

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I agree that you could possibly trace that but it's no proof that they are ponzi.

You cant prove a ponzi. No more than you can prove the Nigerian princess that emailed you yesterday, isnt really a princess and didnt really inherent an oil concession.
An operator however, can easily disprove a ponzi. If he doesnt, the conclusion should be obvious.

Quote
It's interesting the difficulty has decreased.  To quote Warren Buffett:
Quote
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

Let's see if we see someone without pants Wink

Im not convinced that will make a big difference just yet. For all I know, it will fuel sales.
872  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Cloudmining 101 (spamfree thread) on: December 03, 2014, 07:34:11 AM
Checked and added
873  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Cloudmining 101 (spamfree thread) on: December 02, 2014, 10:56:24 PM

The other reseller is havelockinvestments.com


havelock is a secondary market, there are no IPO's there right now for amhash, and non planned that I know off. Not that havelock is beyond scrutiny
874  Economy / Securities / Re: AMHash1: Cost-Effective Mining Contract on: December 02, 2014, 10:28:06 PM
Dont spend it all at once Smiley
875  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Cloudmining 101 (spamfree thread) on: December 02, 2014, 10:10:36 PM
As I can see here u have listed GAWminer and Genesis-Mining as Probably Legit. Maybe, according to your criteria, they are. But, I'd request to u to check the following threads to get informed about the actual picture.


i. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809563.0
ii. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=875487.0
iii. http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/2enhh4/genesisminingcom_is_a_dishonestly_run_business/

I suggest you read the entire line about GAW.  in case you cant scroll horizontally its rated "4/7*= Possibly/partially legit based on criteria set forth. Based on wider context: more suspicious than a nun squatting in a cucumber field".

As for genesis mining; I only see an accusation of shilling or sock puppetry. That sort of behavior wouldnt surprise me one bit from any company on my list. I make no attempt to judge company ethics, the disclaimer defines legit as " All it shows is that said company has provided reasonable evidence it is a real company and your investment is backed by actual hashrate." If you have evidence that undermines that claim for genesis mining, or my rating for it,  Id love to see it.
876  Other / Off-topic / Re: The Origin of Cellular Life on Earth on: December 02, 2014, 09:47:07 PM
I think about it as a sort of state of matter, or a sustained, replicating chemical reaction.

By that definition, many ordinary chemical reactions could be considered "alive".  Not that I have a better definition, but I had to point out we have no firm definition and we may not even recognize "life" if we stumbled over it on planet Y.

Quote
Whatever it is, a long time ago a DNA monster began as a simple form of life. It replicated and over time the offspring became more different. They radiated and diversified, building up a tree of related DNA forms. That is where we are today, but how it started is still a mystery.

From the lecture, it appears extremely likely life (our variety) did not start with DNA. DNA is too complicated already to have been a starting point. RNA seems like a more likely candidate, even though that still poses lots of big hurdles and from the third lecture (much of which I admit went over my head due to a lack of chemistry knowledge), it seems researchers are focusing now on other (synthetic) molecules. Mostly to learn about the properties of the processes involved, but its not inconceivable something very different kickstarted "life". Something we may in our lifetimes create, or who knows, find on Europa.

Anyway, thats your job. Ill focus on writing a quantum model of gravity Wink.
877  Other / Off-topic / Re: The Origin of Cellular Life on Earth on: December 02, 2014, 09:10:12 PM
Out of curiosity, how do you define "alive" ?
878  Economy / Goods / Re: 15$ Anonymous Visa Cards USD | GBP | EUR | PLN + Prevent from blocking tutorial on: December 02, 2014, 08:19:14 PM
Sorry for lack of communication, please check your PM. Card was sent as I claimed on PM.

thx, edited my post, Ill update if/when I receive it.
I should add on my request the card was sent without tracking/signing.
879  Economy / Securities / Re: AMHash1: Cost-Effective Mining Contract on: December 02, 2014, 08:13:28 PM
I want to bet on the next diff rise which is in ~7 days. I say it will be below 0.

ok, so the bet I proposed. You're on, 0.1 BTC, I say it will be above 0.

(And if its precisely zero, I suggest we both donate to a charity :p)

Time to turn on my 100PH machine!

Ok.

Havent done the math, but I think at this point its even mathematically impossible for me to win.
Post or pm me an address so I can send you a life changing amount of btc :p.
880  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Cloudmining 101 (spamfree thread) on: December 02, 2014, 08:05:27 PM
Thanks for putting this up.  I am considering investing in cloud mining and this list is helpful.  I'm surprised about Zeus.  Aren't they a vendor also?  If so do they qualify for a 2? 

The list is mostly targeting bitcoin (sha), as I dont really follow the altcoin scene. Zeusminer does sell scrypt machines. but I have not seen any compelling evidence for the SHA mining contracts they sell. If there is any, please link it.

Quote
Are AMHash legit.  They don't look it?  What evidence is there that are legit?

AMhash is a cooperation between asicminer (AM) and RockMiner. Both are well known, especially AM, which is one of the first companies to produce bitcoin asics. There is no real doubt AMhash is "real", in the sense that they have the hashrate. Not only do have the endorsements, photo's, most importantly we have public mining addresses for them. The big problem IMO with AMhash is the reseller, which currently only is hashie which is at best shady.
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