Well.  I think we will see resistance in this decade, but I believe the gas pedal is getting mushed pretty good.   I think we have these ranges to contend with:



But I think we will spend less time in the 5-s than we did in the 40s range.

This really is the tipping point...  If we do not get rejected here the time spent between 50-60 will be less than 40-50 was.

My no fee node is cranking along.  I particularly love the 5 sat streaming payments to podcast index.

I have tried to make some strategic connections with my node so that it will be friendly for routing traffic.  But I am wondering what will happen with the zero fees... You'd think my traffic would go up...

Well.  A bitcoin node is not too heavy a task.  You can do that on any "sometimes on" computer, but a lightning node takes a little more dedication (and the doing of it will also flesh out why a conservative approach to the blocksize limit is smart.)



When lightning was brand new (reckless etc) I spun up a node on a QNAP using a docker image i created.  That was one of the dumbest things ever.  I made something completely NOT ready for production in a containerized format. Bitch to maintain.

But currently my suggestion is Raspiblitz!
https://github.com/rootzoll/raspiblitz

It's not too hard out of the box, follows the FOSS ethos quite well, and can be extended to various power-user features.

Buying a little RPI and a 1T hard drive (mine is still 500g.  I have to upgrade soon) that can be ALWAYS ON is how lightning is going to work.  The more of us willing to do it at home, the more decentralized the network will be.

But the instructions at the Raspiblitz github are good.

It is a project that DOES require a minimum of dedication.  But once you have it up and running it's not terribly hard to maintain.  One of my biggest "problems" is when I set it up i put a little pittance of BTC on it, and kept adding now and then, but over the last few years the value of the damn thing has gone up a bit. Lol.

Brings up another point... Be conservative and intentional about opening channels.  Every open costs a TX, and so will each close.

I recently opened channels to nodes in:
Nigeria
El Salvador
Venezuela
Cuba
Afghanistan

And for those my fees were all ZERO.  But recently I just dropped ALL my fees to zero.

The thought of quietly bringing down the government of Cuba while they are not looking was just too awesome to pass up.

If you get into it and want help, reach out... I will help how I can.  I'll open a channel to you on one of my nodes too if you like!

Oof.  That is ugly.

I want to see how to set up as a swap provider.

There is a fairly rocking arb opportunity here, I think.

Because of it's trust minimized nature I think the spread will be 100% user defined.  This is a beautiful thing.

But it is indeed obvious selling XMR is buying tainted BTC at least once this going.  Isn't it?  And it looks like, at least in it's current form, you will not see the sending BTC address until the transaction is complete.  I might try a little nibble sometime straight into a whirlpool...

Lightning thoughts.

I want to spearhead a movement for cypher-punk inspired idealist zealots begin to run lightning nodes that have low, or even ZERO FEES.

One way to make lightning not become what people all worry about (banks) would be for the people who want to see the system run as counter to the existing one to make that happen themselves.

In fact, I think people who complain about the risks of centralization and exploitation in lightning have something they can do that is far more powerful than complain.

And that is to be the change you want to see.  Run a damn node, and run it the way you think Bitcoin should work!

For those who care about the direction of bitcoin... there really are only three choices.

1.  Complain.
2.  Fork bitcoin.
3.  Join us.

*EDIT* Are zero fees dangerous for spam etc?  Exploitable?

I am 100% certain that a LOT of professional traders who are newly into Bitcoin made an error because of this particular fake out.  I mean... I suppose I can be wrong about where we are headed and this is a dead cat?  But I doubt it.

This is an over-classic spot on formation at the end of a parabolic run to all time highs.  I guarantee that a LOT of money traded out of this.

I remember seeing Microstrategy announcing new buys over and over during the 3-4 month correction.  And I can remember pros commenting on them sending good money after bad, and pointing out the levels at which they would be under water.

This is not a post saying "HA HA!  Look at the dumb 'professionals!'".  They are good at what they do.  And notice I said "the ones new to bitcoin".  Because the ones that UNDERSTAND bitcoin a bit more were... well, doing what Saylor did.



One more bit of thought...  A lot of really smart professional money got out in the 60 to 45 range. So part of this rally will be them getting back in while they are still at a discount.  It's sort of an implied short squeeze. And for some it is probably as REAL short squeeze.  But others just have money on the sidelines like Raja...  They are going to be buying in more as the price starts to continue to head up, because more of them will be hedging under their sale price that they were wrong.

And Voila.  They were.

Feel free to dig this quote up and post it to embarrass me in 6 months:

We are now entering the next phase of the bullsplosion.  And I think it is highly likely to be the uber-face-melter.

But it won't get quoted.  Because it will be correct. 

Cards face up.  All in.

Love you folks. 

(PS.  I think the real tell will be the volume over the next month or so...  If it stays low then all the above theories were wrong.  If we see it start to build from here???  CCMF)

I would guess that many of us that are "from the early days" and are still here, are still holding significant portions, if not all, of their holdings from back when.  Some of us also wish we had acquired more   That's for sure...  And this makes the holding even easier.

Since there is no way to downvote or unlike your offensive post, I will simply ignore you.  I have been doubtful you offer much, and I believe that was a correct position.

That kind of thing, yes.  Most exploits in current markets are enabled by the tradeoffs with the asset at the center of the exploit.  I say "at the center" because it is also the instruments designed to take advantage of limitations in the asset, or even regulatory structures.

But Bitcoin does away with a lot of those sorts of handles.

For example... gold is extremely difficult to custody and transport.  It is heavy and there is a lot of value tied up in a physical thing the needs a tremendous amount of effort to be spent in protecting it. m And it is expensive to assay.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6qEee1_4fw

So it tends to be consolidated in well protected fortresses and vaults.  Then all the trade has to do with paper that represents the asset.  And because of that... an almost limitless amount of schemes can be designed to take advantage of the fact that you might own gold on paper, but demanding delivery is often not realistic, or feasible.  And sustaining the security even assuming control after the delivery is complete becomes quite difficult as well.  So people settle for gold on paper, and then abstracted contracts for delivery of paper that represents gold.  And options on those contracts.  And so on.

Bitcoin as the first trust minimized digital (instant, ephemeral) bearer asset.

If customers suspect that Coinbase is a fractional reserve it is extremely simple thing for them to demand delivery of the asset.  And in this case one of three things will happen.

Coinbase has the reserves, and delivers the bitcoin.
Coinbase does not have the bitcoin and goes broke as this happens. (my fav scenario... sorry people holding there!)
Coinbase defaults, and is somehow protected by a government.

Both of those last two ways expose a terminal flaw that will drive the worldwide flow of bitcoin away from institutions that custody and into trust reduced, or minimized setups.  Multi-sigs with third parties, large cryptographic Federations, or self custody.

Bitcoin will be harder to play these games with EXACTLY because trusted third parties are security holes. 

And we don't need them anymore.

The thing that went down with GME is merely a foreshadowing of the hard destruction that awaits people who try to abuse a system that has no escape valve.

I will most certainly come if allowed.

Then again, do I really want to go to a party where people like me are allowed?

You are surprisingly generous to scambulb.

And you might be right.

But to me he seems like he saw a 107 IQ sort of "electronic money!  Blockchain!!! Technology!!!" level Vision.  And has been blinded by the flashing lights and whizzing whirleygigs ever since.

I would put money on the idea that his position is something like: 
It's very hard for me to believe, but I think it is really possible that he has never really understood the actual innovation that Bitcoin is.

Either that or hes a damned slimey evil genius who is OK with offering people carnival barker level risks to make himself the next technoking.

I sincerely hope Mallers crushes him to a pulp in the arena of the "bitcoin bank" world...

Oh, did Brian Armstrong grow a little beard and get a tan?

Monero price action is so delightfully weird.

On a day that Bitcoin is raping shitcoins... it decides to go up a little bit.

lol.

I've been watching it for what 7 years?  And I can still not quite figure out what it's gonna do.

PS. Febo:  The WHM stuff is SUPER compelling.  I have always seen it is a mixed blessing.

There are only three crypto assets that are REALLY REALLY being used.

1. Bitcoin.
2. Eth.
3. Monero.

The rest is all BS.  And ETH is really being used as a convoluted lottery ticket/toll.  Not that that is not a use case.  Just that it's an annoying one. Dark market usage is the ACID TEST for privacy.  And also a good enough reason for the state to try to crack down.  Mixed blessing...

Bah whatever.  What a freaking POX that Armstrong is on Bitcoin.  He has been anti-BTC for at LEAST six years, and their announcement is they will put their money in "crypto".  I actually believe that there are a few projects besides Bitcoin that do matter, so I am not even a maximalist.  Well i believe there is ONE.  And he won't list or hold that one for fear he won't keep getting to lick the boots of the state.  He picks the WORST, and has never understood why bitcoin matters as far as I can tell.  In a way it's win/win.  Either it's SUPER heavy BTC allotment (proving the point) or it's super heavy shitcoins, and he loses his ass.  Sadly the percentage of BTC in the mix is likely to hedge against total ass losing...

I hope with all my heart that they put WAY too much into shitcoins that end up getting clobbered.  Yet their "investment" will somehow legitimize the shitcoins.

He can't take any crown away from Microstrategy anymore than someone who specializes in slot machine gambling could win a WSOP bracelet.

I keep it clean.  Actually it is overdue for a breakdown.  As to knowing how to use it?  Well... it is mostly used at a range.   Outdoor @ 100 meters or so.  It's fine tuned for distance.  It would not typically be what I would defend my node with unless the target was approaching from down the street.  Hard to imagine that scenario.

Plus I am not a big fan of guns, or violence.  I abhor the idea of having to use a weapon against any living creature.

However, I do have a family, and would defend them without hesitation.

But someone coming to see my node uninvited would not most likely see the rifle.

They would see the Remington 870, or the SIG P226 first.  And last.

But I do not like thinking about that very much.

As to your picture?  The dude in the foreground looks markedly less likely to shoot himself in the face than Santa Claus back there...  And in the past I have seen those folks carry a lot more AKs.  But recent pictures look more like this.

I suppose that's what 20 years of us dropping gear around will do...  I imagine the AKs will show back up soon enough.