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Updated the post with the leveraged shorts added in..
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Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath 25s25 seconds ago
At $400M post, @coinbase valuation is almost 15% of entire BTC market cap. Top 20 BTC co's market cap > entire BTC market cap.
Not for long  |
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I hope you and Jorge are making enough per-post to make this worth your time... If you did this as a hobby that would be pretty sad  I fear sadness abounds.. |
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Explain to me how Coinbase is profitable while it is now valued at 12% of the total market cap of BTC?
Without the underlying asset increasing dramatically in value, how do the NYSE investors see ROI?
AFAIK, Coinbase does not invest in bitcoin either. Their profit does not depend on the price of bitcoin, but on how much USD they process. I would guess (just guess) that they are valued so much because they plan to become a competitor to PayPal (including dollar-to-dollar payments rather than just bitcoin-to-dollar like BitPay). Certainly not because bitcoin is undervalued jorge! You are hilarious. |
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the crash was not driven by manipulation, the run-up was. Now the free market is correcting btc value, I still think were going down in the near term (next 6-8 months).
The latest move downwards (from below 600) is probably one of the clearer moves of direct market manipulation I have ever seen. Up there with gold moving vertically down 50 dollars when the SNB announced it would peg to the euro or when QE4EVER was announced last year by the FED. A single glance at bfxdata shows 24,350 coins are currently borrowed in BTC swaps for shorts. This is virtually at the ATH despite a price 85% down from the actual ATH. A lot of small traders are expecting price drops. Yet those drops aren't happening and once the market begins to collectively realise we aren't going lower, there is only one way for it to go. And those coins need to be bought back. The average number of coins swapped for short contracts through most of 2014 was between 5,000 and 10,000 - mainly closer to 5,000. The change since august 2014 is quite instructive to observe. Short interest has risen 500% since then when the price was 580 ish. Short interest soared from 5,000 upwards, fell back after a major selloff, then rose even higher to where we are now. So what I am saying is that most of this entire move is manipulated with the use of leveraged selling into the market, allowing major players to accumulate astonishing amounts of bitcoin in the recent capitulation low, probably off exchange. The great thing is we will find out over the coming months, won't we. Either the price will nose dive into the ground (because ..the chart..but the chart!..oh shiii) and the former CEO of Citi will have chucked away millions of dollars betting on bitcoin (today investing in coinbase) or it will rise. And if it rises, it will rise very quickly indeed - the bitcoin price is currently a football being held under the water - something that is hard to do for very long. |
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How far is this from being a possible scenario for 2015? The bottom is in. After a huge volume capitulation the bears cannot push the price down any lower - the invisible selling hand has stopped selling. VC funding continues to pour into the space ignoring the bitcoin price entirely (75,000,000 USD in coinbase today including investment from US banking partners). The reason for banks investing is they know that the Bitlicense (due to be released in days) is positive for bitcoin. Once bitlicense is released and major players are positioned the ETF will go live shortly after, resulting in an avalanche of investment capital entering the space. The entire 'crash' of inexplicable selling (in a sea of positive fundamentals) has been major players manipulating the market to buy up as many coins as possible for the next bull run. They are now positioned and with short interest near ATH's still and long interest languishing at levels not seen for almost a year, it is time to push the price back upwards. This will squeeze the only gamblers who aren't in on the move - retail shorters - who are all sure we will see sub $100 coins. The squeeze will signal the start of the next bull run and drive the price back upwards towards 500 dollars where it will stabilise temporarily.  Once the ETF is announced the price will begin moving upwards rapidly and draw in institutional investors and joe public alike. Online companies will begin offering a discount to buy goods online with bitcoin, creating a persistent use case for widespread adoption of the coin. The price will break 1000 dollars and keep moving upwards resulting in a mania of the like not seen since 2013. Hopefully EDIT: Previous low 166.45, current price 248.29 EDIT2: Added the historic btc short swap data.. EDIT3: Added bitcoins day destroyed to show that coins arent really moving despite the price weakness. This is new coins on the move!  EDIT4: Can you see a high volume capitulation event? We thought it was October when the price hit 274 but the move in January was huge..  EDIT5: Added in the btc rich list..no selling from whales, this has all been new coins and leverage..  |
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It wouldn't be a great surprise if the whole move down from ~400 was an orchestrated buy up of bitcoins prior to the ETF going live, would it?
i thought they already has a lot of bitcoin for the etf ? Not the winklevii. If/when the ETF goes live it will almost inevitably draw in lots of investment capital into the space. All the winklevii coins are only valued 20 million USD now. It is likely that prior to such an announcement there will be buying up on coins en masse by those in the know. A great way to do this is to smash the price first. This could all just be the market waking up to how oversold btc is - 75,000,000 USD in Coinbase from investors including banks shows where this market is going over the next few years - imagine if that capital hit the exchanges. |
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It wouldn't be a great surprise if the whole move down from ~400 was an orchestrated buy up of bitcoins prior to the ETF going live, would it?
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Yep, bitcoin is dead  Coinbase has raised $75m as part of a Series C funding round backed by a host of impressive first-time bitcoin investors including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Fortune 500 financial services group USAA, Spanish megabank BBVA and Japanese telcom giant DoCoMo.Ssh. Keep it quiet until I can buy another 15 coins next week. |
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Looking at the order books, i'm not convinced we're moving anywhere (significantly...)
If the price hangs on then the next spike up will likely breach the 230 level and set the cat upon the pigeons. |
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Need another bear whale to push this lower. Come on retail, you can do it! |
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I think this is valid again just like it was for the $300 drop, I'm checking all the tine waiting for the next drop.
Everything is pointing any day now., Just like before the price has tried to climb numerous times without success. Volume is dropping. All signs before a new drop.
The suspense is killing me.
Of course you think it is a valid point for the price to drop further. Your speciality is calling the bottom of a bitcoin bear market and yelling 'SELL SELL SELL'! You are probably the only person on the forum from 2011 who made no money trading a commodity which rose from 2 dollars to 1200 dollars. Incredible stuff. I stopped looking at bitcoin after it hit $3.00 from $2.00. I was one of only a few people who was a bear from $20's to $2.00, even with everybody against me. Of course I had t be wrong someplace, and everybody jumps on the fact that I didn't predict the last drop to $1.00 as that never came and that was my buy in point, Don't I get any credit for being the few who was bearish all the way down to $2.00, and figured it would hit $1.00? As the price dropped it would eventually get harder to a correct bear. The $200 is way over valued and I don't think it will hold. It feels like another drop is going to hit any day now. I think the point I was making was that your track record in predicting the price for bitcoin is abysmal. Worse still, it was cataclysmic for anyone else who listened to your advice or 'feelings' in 2011 or 2012 or 2013. You should come with a safety warning. |
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You don't have to buy at the bottom, you can buy near the bottom and hold. If you want to time your purchase at the bottom, you will most likely miss it.
'holding bitcoins' is out of fashion anyways. Can't tell anyone you're buying or selling this crap. You're embarassing yourself and your friends/family if you talk to people about it. People will immediately think you're a lunatic for being interested in this shit. Out in the streets people laugh about your losses in fancy internet money because you have been so stupid to put money in it - much more stupid than those that are ignorant of it because they saved themselves time while you lost money on pipedream-based ponzicoins. Don't talk to people about 'Bitcoin' to avoid getting condolences and being looked at as a mentally imbalanced person. Ah so you are the same person as homo hominis lupus! |
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That'll be those new shorts on finex then..
No follow-through yet.
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I think this is valid again just like it was for the $300 drop, I'm checking all the tine waiting for the next drop.
Everything is pointing any day now., Just like before the price has tried to climb numerous times without success. Volume is dropping. All signs before a new drop.
The suspense is killing me.
Of course you think it is a valid point for the price to drop further. Your speciality is calling the bottom of a bitcoin bear market and yelling 'SELL SELL SELL'! You are probably the only person on the forum from 2011 who made no money trading a commodity which rose from 2 dollars to 1200 dollars. Incredible stuff. |
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That inflation, dude. Makes it useless to store value! Please try to understand.
Issuance: Mining, politics, alghorithm. Latter one seems like most healthy to me when it comes to inflation problem. -algo has nothing diretly to do with the emission curve - 1 coin added to 100 coins supply is still 1% inflation. Sha, scrypt, X11 or what ever doesn't change things -it's also not politics, it's a question whether the coin will survive and be adopted or not - and sadly bitcoin won't because the fundamentals in emission of coins have been made by an amateur. It's really so bad it almost looks like intentionally bad. I still can't wrap my head around how 10% inflation this year should have been justified years ago. Must really be like people say: socialism/marxism got in the way - so bitcoin failed very hard and very real in sustaining the marketcap and taking good care of the money given to it. So i don't think people will want to invest again because remember: "Repeating a mistake time and time again and expecting different outcomes is madness" Next up: Coins being good store of value (good to investors, makes sense to put money into) and less generous to miners (more efficient) Bitcon also has the foundation nobody likes and a community of delusionals aswell as a bad name for doing illegal stuff. I think it's pretty worn out already. Bagholders should attempt a rebrand. The brand is so horrible, only Litecoin is a more horrible brand  back on topic: a coin not able to be a relatively stable store of value can't be called a moneytoken and is useless/insignificant as means of exchange in daily commerce. Bitcoin being a store of value is the most wrong thing someone can attempt to say after all the history bitcoin has gone through. If bitcoin is one thing certainly NOT, it's being a store for value. All the pipedreams of stability tomorrow and not today are also only excuses for bitcoins inability to deliver on the hype. Can't hold value today, why should it be able to tomorrow? Lost credibility already with screwing up the most basic part. You seem to spend an awful lot of time trolling a bitcoin enthusiast forum for someone who thinks so little of bitcoin. For someone banging on about mining costs and coin inflation rates so much, perhaps you can demonstrate the relationship between mining costs and the price, or coin inflation and the price please? |
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first: we have to figure out the rock bottom! So in case bitcoin bounces off somewhere between 5$ and 120$ we could look at this question again. Before finding bottom: useless idea even to think about 'what if' Bitcoin is a reflection of society...a walking zombie.
And society hasn't even arrived ... these are still the more intelligent zombies these days ... This is almost impossible. 1 most coins are held for the long term 2 As the price drops then it becomes more attractive an investment 3 Far to much money will flood in to buy BTC well before hitting $100 I will caveat this with one proviso. Underlying Bitcoin technology isnt found to be totally flawed ( As it is open source and been under the microscope of pletny then this is very very unlikely) So may I suggest you put forward reasons why it will go sub $100 without a flood of coins being bought? Sure it has fundamental problems like the inflation and a lot other things. Look at the charts for confirmation Bitcoin fundamentals suck ass. On the contrary programmatic exponentially reducing inflation is a feature not a fundamental problem. That aside you are predicting vastly lower prices because 'line on a chart points down' after a high volume capitulation and an 85% decline - in fact using the chart to justify fundamentals (chortle). Good luck  |
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Looks like some people tried to jump-start a rise, but the selling pressure was higher then predicted and they just gave up.
There is very little interest to buy over 200$. Everyone are just hoping that a miracle will save them all, until the price begins to drop again.
Or to sell below 200.. Keep dreaming.. |
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Volume is slowly dropping, nobody is buying at $200, looks still too high.
The price has been over 200 for two days therefore people are buying at $200. Your analysis is faulty. |
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Skeptic mode on:
1) Buy some btc at $170
2)Tweet: "Hey, I have some inside information on BitCoin. Something huge will happen! Buy now!"
3) Watch 5% of your your followers buy in causing price to rise
4) Sell at $210
Profit!
(Continued)
5) Go against the earlier announcement as obviously nothing major happened. Create negative sentiment.
6) Watch people dump causing price drop.
Rinse and repeat.
Except it only works once.. |
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