And this is something I've been pondering recently... A maybe yet to be realized mitigating factor in the long-term course of this new currency. We've already mentioned coins lost to forgotten keys and typos... but what about the generational wealth transfer that breaks down far more often than it succeeds as our first generation of HODL'ers fail to properly secure a means of passing coins on in the inevitable unfortunate demise. With paper Fiat it's not uncommon to find out years later that old Uncle Festus had hidden thousands of $$$ under his floor boards. Or that Grandpa Irving had an old savings account or safety deposit box with forgotten fortunes waiting to be claimed. At the simplest, bitcoiners may possibly have a paper backup, or the seed words, or some other private keys safely stored. Those can be under the floor boards or more likely in some safe or box or file cabinet. There are also some multi-sig procedures so heirs can get access to coins. If you currently do not have a recent back up, or tested a restore from your backup, or tried to load up your wallet (air gapped / cold of course) then now would be a good time to test if the procedure works. You can always destroy the new wallet if you don't intend to use it. Extremely important post. Better to handle these things sooner rather than later... |
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I had always imagined that every OG bitcoiner had their own Alpaca ranch. Disappointed! When it's all said and done, I might just buy one to have it around. |
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..... that old Uncle Festus had hidden thousands of $$$ under his floor boards. Or that Grandpa Irving had an old savings account or safety deposit box ......
.....
...not to mention cousin Mel, Grandma Gertie and Auntie Grizelda.I went to see them last year, I wouldn't recommend it.  Thanx for the pro tip bro. Fun fact... The first LP I ever owned was "The Monkees" (just after it was released in 1966) A 9th birthday gift from Auntie. I was all bummed out because it didn't have the track "I'm a Believer" on it. So shortly thereafter, I saved up my pocket money and bought their 2nd album "More of The Monkees" (which did include that track) My older brother gave me no end of shit because he was a Beatles fanboy (he'd just bought "Revolver") and thought the Monkees were shite. Apparently, he was cool, I wasn't. GO BITCOIN  The Monkees were very cool. Sort of a blend of the Beatles and the Beach Boys. What a hard time for them to become famous. They lived in a long long shadow... Hmm... is not that somehow related to an azimuth? |
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I agree that there might have been other option besides defaulting in this case. I think a competent barrister could have argued for a sealed proceeding on the grounds of possible bodily harm or some other form of retaliation being made upon the defendant if his identity had been revealed to the general public. I also think that if there were financial considerations that kept this case from being defended properly that the Bitcoin community would have rallied in support. I also agree that the disparity between the haves and have nots in most judicial systems is a heinous thing. I think Elon Musk is more clever than most give credit for, it could just be he was tweaking the nose of the SEC and exercising his right to free speech. I do not care for his obsession with dogecoin even though it is a interesting community with tremendous support. I remain unconvinced of its long term store of value properties and usefulness. There is only one person who really knows the motive and I don't believe the man has time or the inclination to explain to us mere mortal's.
It's worth noting that the scumbag likes to pick his jurisdictions based on which is most likely to give him the more favorable outcome. Notably, he has gamed the UK's libel laws in previous actions. This is clearly an action that should have occurred in the US given that .orgs are technically US and bitcoin.org is on a server based in the US but malarkey as ever... CA became VERY practiced in this through the "Bodog" years. As a (bad) poker player (that was my entry into the corn in fact) I was aware of him skating around all jurisdictional things in that realm, and he was for a time on some three letter agency's most wanted list. He is deeply skilled in the game he is playing today. Honestly, I have occasionally wondered if he were the actual antichrist gearing up for the mark through all this. I mean damn, even his actual name is poetic for such a thing. The level of deception between the two of them... Jesus... well... maybe i should say anti-Jesus. |
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You can't make code changes to get keys for blocks, that wouldn't work. Also, as mentioned before, when it comes to client code patches we can always refuse to update, and a majority most likely would reject in this case, effectively ignoring any court decision.
That's what makes that lawsuit frivolous. Anyone can hard-fork bitcoin. CSW has already done it himself. He can fork bitcoin and send the coins to himself. I can't think of a single case where someone has sued to have a third-party do what the first-party could do. It's all theater. Very few would accept his fork in ANY circumstance, but more might if he can get legal pronouncements. Also certainly governments have realized by now all they have to do is "believe him" and back "Bitcoin" to ultimately take control. I honestly think he has also be shooting that angle as well. |
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I think his game plan is clear.
He wants to make a legal claim to the fact he is "Satoshi", and then he will have the court issue an order that the BTC (and BCH and BSV devs) make a change to the code that allows him to access the keys to the "Satoshi coins" on his list.
His funder has made 10 figures using the courts for this sort of shenanigans for years.
As much as I think he is a horrible person, this drama is somewhat interesting. One interesting point is, if my some stroke of luck he actually can get the "order" to have BTC code changed to grant him access we will see yet another fork. Obviously the real bitcoin devs will not changer the code. But someone will, and that fork will be launched, and declared the "true bitcoin" or even the "true BTC".
This is tiresome. But it is also a reality, and one of the sorts of attacks on Bitcoin that I do not think (the actual) Satoshi foresaw. Nor did the others 10 years ago who had somewhat better vision than him like Finney.
I hear many people calling for the code to be "ossified". That even the hard fought improvements like Taproot/Schnorr are not worth the social risk. But I think they are stopping one level too short of where the REAL ossification has to happen and HAS BEEN happening.
That is the ossification of consensus. We can have as many copies of Bitcoin created as there are places to store the blockchain. And the argument by many no-coiners that there are "endless bitcoins" because there are "endless forks, and alts" is easily brushed aside by the true believers, but in reality it is important, and necessary for us to go through this process during the birth of a new monetary network. The tradeoff with this network being FOSS is it can be forked as many times as people want to fork it. And that is where one of the most viable realms of attacks are. Wright and Ayre have been gathering as many followers and believers as possible in an alternate vision for Bitcoin to the end that they can subvert it, take it over, and be the central authority of it.
This seems very futile to me, in light of the fact that the network has CLEARLY shown where consensus lies for the last 4 years as well as the fact that relative new converts (and ones in power like President Bukele) have also correctly evaluated the landscape and seen that Bitcoin, with all it's choices and tradeoffs is ONE THING, and there is no need to listen to the various siren songs of imitators and subverters.
But it is still going to happen. And things like default judgements in the courts etc will happen, and that wedge will be driven as far as possible before trying to do the eventual "flip".
Of course this is futile, and annoying. I wish i had some clarity on the way this continues to unfold, but I see to many competing possibilities. But most future universes end in failure for our friends the frauds. It's just that the real thing ends up having to walk through this mud on the way to rock solid establishment.
You can't make code changes to get keys for blocks, that wouldn't work. Also, as mentioned before, when it comes to client code patches we can always refuse to update, and a majority most likely would reject in this case, effectively ignoring any court decision. Other than that, I think your theory is plausible if the motives for Craig are to make some claims, win lawsuits, and get rich in the process...but who really wants to be identified as Satoshi, a constant target, would you? I have another theory; Craig was in a tight spot legally (or financially), he made a deal with someone, the plan is to smoke out the real Satoshi by using Craig as a stooge. Ooh. I like your theory better... it would just be more fun overall. There are several ways they could give Craig the satoshi Coins. The will not be able to produce the keys, but they can just ad an OPCODE like OP_FAKETOSHI that would move those UTXOs to other addresses, or invalidate them and issue him others etc... I am sure this is the sort of thing he gets sweaty thinking about. |
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OK... if you have a tinfoil hat, now would be the time to put it on.
1. China has pissed off all the miners at once somehow and they have moved away en masse like some migratory butterflies with the need to fly west programmed into their DNA.
Eeh. I give it 15%. It would be less, but the sterotype of the east being the real players when it comes to groupthink gives it a little gas.
2. China has sent out communiques saying something like "Get out or we take you down" to all the major players. And they talked amongst themselves and began to move out.
This seems like the 70% scenario. And what a huge tactical error on the part of one of the strongest countries in the world.
3. This is planned by China, or more than China, and more is coming than we think.
This is the tinfoil 15%.
Say that China, or a group of nations including China, and their pet, the US among others decided they were going to buy up miners for a while on the sly (anyone have data?) and then when they have enough force down both the ones they already control, and then also the ones they can influence to induce the largest downward difficulty adjustment in the history of the project.
Publish tons of images of people boxing up miners and laying them out on the floor. Make sure there are people in those pictures wearing clothes that would suggest a certain area of the world etc.
Then, of course, after the downward adjustment bring all the miners online at once... the ones pulled out and all the new ones, and start a hashrate attack.
At the same time loose a giant troll army on Twitter, Reddit, and oh, I dunno, say an OG Bitcoin forum. And start driving one or two narratives to split the community at the exact time of the attack. Let's face it. If the banking system that runs the world is going to stop this "release valve" ( in the words of Legarde) they have just about reached their last chance. It's now or never for them.
What could they achieve with this method?
And if they are going to do it... who are the spooks here? Will they post on this thread? Or just start up new ones?
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If we can bump up past here it's pretty clear to 38k. But there is no actual volume.
What we seem to have is a bullish small player, retail. And whales selling .
I am not sure I agree with this premise. Without people selling, there are no people buying. Without people buying, there are no people selling. I don't whale's need or want to sell at this point of the adoption curve. I think I agree. What I am seeing is retail pushing the price north in the absence of whale moves, but when the volume shows up we seem to be headed down. So small buyers outnumber small sellers, but the volume of large sellers has outpaced both large and small buyers recently. |
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How could you do this???  In a remote hearing today, a judge said that “Cøbra,” the pseudonymous operator of Bitcoin.org, must display a notice on his website about the judgment, pay at least £35,000 ($48,600) in legal costs and remove the whitepaper from his site. Cøbra lost the case through a default judgment; he mounted no defense to preserve his pseudonymity. https://decrypt.co/74657/bitcoin-inventor-whitepaper-lawsuit-craig-wright-cobraThis will force many to come out of anonymity now.  This is how CSW works he pecks away at official or pseudo official things that will name him as Satoshi and then claim that as evidence that he is. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a certificate for a star named "Satoshi" somewhere next to his suspicious law cert. I think his game plan is clear. He wants to make a legal claim to the fact he is "Satoshi", and then he will have the court issue an order that the BTC (and BCH and BSV devs) make a change to the code that allows him to access the keys to the "Satoshi coins" on his list. His funder has made 10 figures using the courts for this sort of shenanigans for years. As much as I think he is a horrible person, this drama is somewhat interesting. One interesting point is, if my some stroke of luck he actually can get the "order" to have BTC code changed to grant him access we will see yet another fork. Obviously the real bitcoin devs will not changer the code. But someone will, and that fork will be launched, and declared the "true bitcoin" or even the "true BTC". This is tiresome. But it is also a reality, and one of the sorts of attacks on Bitcoin that I do not think (the actual) Satoshi foresaw. Nor did the others 10 years ago who had somewhat better vision than him like Finney. I hear many people calling for the code to be "ossified". That even the hard fought improvements like Taproot/Schnorr are not worth the social risk. But I think they are stopping one level too short of where the REAL ossification has to happen and HAS BEEN happening. That is the ossification of consensus. We can have as many copies of Bitcoin created as there are places to store the blockchain. And the argument by many no-coiners that there are "endless bitcoins" because there are "endless forks, and alts" is easily brushed aside by the true believers, but in reality it is important, and necessary for us to go through this process during the birth of a new monetary network. The tradeoff with this network being FOSS is it can be forked as many times as people want to fork it. And that is where one of the most viable realms of attacks are. Wright and Ayre have been gathering as many followers and believers as possible in an alternate vision for Bitcoin to the end that they can subvert it, take it over, and be the central authority of it. This seems very futile to me, in light of the fact that the network has CLEARLY shown where consensus lies for the last 4 years as well as the fact that relative new converts (and ones in power like President Bukele) have also correctly evaluated the landscape and seen that Bitcoin, with all it's choices and tradeoffs is ONE THING, and there is no need to listen to the various siren songs of imitators and subverters. But it is still going to happen. And things like default judgements in the courts etc will happen, and that wedge will be driven as far as possible before trying to do the eventual "flip". Of course this is futile, and annoying. I wish i had some clarity on the way this continues to unfold, but I see to many competing possibilities. But most future universes end in failure for our friends the frauds. It's just that the real thing ends up having to walk through this mud on the way to rock solid establishment. |
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So, this is where we are at... A little volume for a push over this level, and we up the chances of a reversal quite a bit, I'd think...  |
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If we can bump up past here it's pretty clear to 38k. But there is no actual volume.
What we seem to have is a bullish small player, retail. And whales selling .
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Have people on the internet lost all capability to think rationally? I keep reading shit like "The hash rate has dropped significantly, so yeah all Chinese mining has stopped. Miners---they're leaving China." No, idiot. It could also mean that mining machines in China were just intentionally turned off. Which also implies that they can just as easily be turned back on. In that scenario, you wouldn't know the difference, nor would you be able to confirm or deny.  China has proven they are the absolute worlds best at narratives and useful drama. |
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Who are these winter people? |
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I almost wonder if the price doesn't go down 5% the moment one of these things gets approved in the US. It has become almost anti-news. It is, however, just a matter of time. |
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Interesting story of how El Salvador adopted bitcoin. It’s not a one day news in fact bitcoin took its time. This small documentary explains very well how it has happened, or it won’t be wrong if I say a best video of how living in a bitcoin town would be. Apparently it all started with when in 2019 “someone” donated 12 bitcoins to this beach village. This someone is still a mystery may be he was Satoshi or El duderino_ who knows?? He or they we don’t know. I like her .. Dominga Peña she says “I use bitcoin to save money”. Yes this is a story of small town but this will be an example for the future. We as a generation don’t have idea how or when this paper money took over the world but certainly we are the generation watching this paper money loosing its ground and its fake power in front of our eyes. Of course Governments and these federal banks won’t give up so easily we can expect there will be more restrictions and bans around bitcoin but it has began and stopping bitcoin won’t be easy too. On a side note I like this documentary because that’s how journalism should be, don’t just speculate the news. Go and bring the facts first hand talk to people who are involved. We can still argue how it’s being presented but that’s a topic for another day. Watch this small documentary of El Salvador village here https://youtu.be/jvHN0MEBoZoThanks for sharing, interesting indeed. The villagers seems optimistic, the reporter introduced some of the common propaganda FUD you see with mainstream media, but he wasn't too shabby. I mean "Bitcoin going to zero" is not going to happen, you can't kill an open source idea/invention once it's public, and the scam fears were over long ago. I remember around 2012-2013 when we had a never ending stream of "Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme!" posts in this forum, users registering only to point that out, the rate was around USD$12 per BTC back then....where are those guys now? "How does it feel to be the white guy who is coming in to save these poor people". I have to admit, I loathe this generation at times. Such a question sounds like righteousness, yet when you actually examine the assumptions it is based on you realize it is made of the exact thing it attempts to expose. |
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Interesting story of how El Salvador adopted bitcoin. It’s not a one day news in fact bitcoin took its time. This small documentary explains very well how it has happened, or it won’t be wrong if I say a best video of how living in a bitcoin town would be.
Apparently it all started with when in 2019 “someone” donated 12 bitcoins to this beach village. This someone is still a mystery may be he was Satoshi or El duderino_ who knows?? He or they we don’t know.
 I guess I finally get to find out. Not who gave the 12BTC, but another question I have long wondered. One of the things that the Keynesian types like to argue is Bitcoin cannot be a good store of value, or medium of exchange BECAUSE of it's volatility. I have always wondered if it was ever used as a money in a particular place, how could that change, or be tested. There are two parts to this: 1. In Central and South American countries the people are used to currency instability. But they are not used to having it in both directions. They are, however used to the value of their money dropping. Sometimes so much that they are forced to spend it more quickly than they might want otherwise. Bitcoin will give them a currency that so far, has been ridiculously volatile, but overall has been going UP. Since they are already practiced with DOWN this might just be an easier transition for a country like ES (of course the USD is more stable there) 2. As it is used in a particular area, will the price swings be dampened a little? In other words will the asset begin to become more stable just out of convenience? No one WANTS to have to carry a sliderule around with them to do calculations. And of course with a mobile wallet, if they start out by pricing the goods in USD and just letting the underlying asset shift as needed, that will not have a dampening effect. But if some brave Pupusa sellers start to price their goods in BTC first, it could. The overall thought is this might be yet another reason we start to see less seasonal (4 year) halving effects, and more smoothing of the ascending yo-yo effect of Bitcoin. I think the convergence of new fundamentals is becoming staggering in Bitcoin. On every front, wallet tech, mining, legal, global etc we are barrelling ahead so fast it's getting hard to realize how much faster the train is actually going now than it was just a year ago. I really think we are close to people starting to look back and realize that it became unstoppable a while back. I am in an incredible bullish wave thoughts wise. |
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Sentiment turning bullishish?
This little climb has been showing the faint whiff of volume expanding. I truly hope so. I feel like I did at prior moment with bitcoin where "I have no idea how this could continue to go down all things considered". Unfortunately my track record with that feeling in the past has lead to purchases on the way DOWN as opposed to a bottom. So there's that. lol. I've had my share of that too, so I know exactly what you mean :-) 35000 looks like it wants to be a challenge. |
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Sentiment turning bullishish?
This little climb has been showing the faint whiff of volume expanding. I truly hope so. I feel like I did at prior moment with bitcoin where "I have no idea how this could continue to go down all things considered". Unfortunately my track record with that feeling in the past has lead to purchases on the way DOWN as opposed to a bottom. So there's that. lol. |
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if it comes to fruition, actually points at a bitcoin value of under $0.
Apologies, I have to stop you right there. Realistically, bitcoin will never go to $0. It may dip some more and we might possibly go down from here. But every order of magnitude, or ever decimal point in USD is literally 10 times more unlikely. 30k maybe? 3k unlikely. 300 very unlikely. 30 improbable. 3 virtually impossible. 0 not going to happen unless humanity is extinct and the internet is disconnected worldwide. Any model, or prediction, that says the value is going under, maybe 10k or even 20k is fundamentally flawed, or wishful thinking. Anything that shows 0, there is something wrong with that chart/model. Obviously I agree with you entirely, and would point out that Schiff's assertion is that this H&S points to ZERO. Not mine. The most ominous thing about #Bitcoin's head and shoulders top pattern is that with a head near $65K and a neckline around $30K the pattern measures a move to zero. That's because the pattern projects a move below the next line that equals the move from the neckline to the head. The point of my point is to point out the basic wrongness of that idea, and to suggest this is not going to be the big H&S that happened at the very top of Bitcoin. The moment the bubble burst. I believe rather it is MUCH more likely that this pullback will be the first of a repeating series that will decrease in magnitude while possibly increasing in frequency until we reach a much more stable price. I think we are at the very beginning of the S-curve adoption explosion, and the price will follow. And I *think* it will happen sooner than we think .(this time lol) At the same time we are in a nasty place from a T/A perspective (from my limited understanding). So whatever is going to happen, COULD be bad. But I do not think so. |
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So here we are on the most horrible looking head and shoulders. One that Perter Schiff has pointed out, if it comes to fruition, actually points at a bitcoin value of under $0. Tee hee.  Eek. But really? What sense does this make today? Look at the macro landscape. Look at the news. Look at interest rates. Look at the world governments. Look at the brrrrrrr. Look at brave little El Salvador! Look at the BIRTH of the lightning network. And then think about what has to happen. Some really really big holders will have to start selling just about right now. I suppose if the governments of the world want to try one last time to stop bitcoin that right now would be one of their only chances. And they would have to: Coordinate to ban it, make it illegal, and or legislate the light out of it. And then they would have to sell a LOT of it on to the retail markets to kick off the Schiff bear. Which would mean they had to have bought a lot of it. OK. Lets say China, the US, the UK, the EU, Japan, and a few others met, and decided to execute this plan. And some or all of those countries were going to SELL ALL THEIR BITCOIN THEY HAVE BEEN BUYING. RIGHT NOW! Ready! GO!!!  Heh. See what I mean? The ones that actually go THROUGH with that plan? Are the losers. And they know it. It's way way past too late. |
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