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1961  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2014, 01:11:27 PM
Take a lesson from physics. It takes a lot of work to reverse an uptrend. There was a lot of force behind that bounce and I thought we would end up going all the way to 550. 4 hour MACD was way up. A sudden drop to new lows is not really feasible right now, especially with btc38 which wasn't that significant of an exchange. Now wait till 4 hour macd goes down and then you'll see your follow through.

so you are saying that the news is important? or are you saying that the macd is important? or is the trend important?


They're all important. You didn't get my analogy to physics did you.  Think of the news like a small increase in gravity, but your projectile (the price) was already on its way up with a lot of momentum and it's going to take some time still to bring the object to a stop and then into a fall.
1962  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2014, 01:04:00 PM
I guess this is just more "FUD", right?

will see soon TERA.

it has no follow through..... the real players are obviously not convinced.

this has happened before, just two days ago. it's just FUD.
Take a lesson from physics. It takes a lot of work to reverse an uptrend, before something can start falling. There was a lot of force behind that bounce and I thought we would end up going all the way to 550. 4 hour MACD was way up. A sudden drop to new lows is not really feasible right now, especially with btc38 which wasn't that significant of an exchange. Now wait till 4 hour macd goes down and then you'll see your follow through.
1963  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2014, 12:53:14 PM
I guess this is just more "FUD", right?
1964  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2014, 12:47:00 PM
Looks like stamp still just mindlessly follows Huobi. I can't see how this is possibly bullish.
1965  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2014, 12:35:30 PM
I don't get the people who actually think this is a major trend reversal into the next bubble when huobi is still open and still leading. Like they didn't learn the first 8 times.

key word 'leading'

which way is it leading? UP

it's obvious it's reversal. we've had 100% confirmation and worse, but the chinese just don't care.

you would know it's a textbook reversal when there is bad news, the market spikes and then rallies. sellers are exhausted. you should expect a big rally, at least before the 14th.
I don't care about "news" - I care about what happens when the Chinese banks actually get shut down.

how did you learn that they would?
My point is I believe that the inpact of an actual shuwdown would be much greater than the impact of the mere information that such is a possibility. As long is it is not actually done yet, there are still people with hope, still people believing in "FUD", still Chinese buying bitcoins, and still Chinese not selling their bitcoins. The 'chinese ban' has happened so many times that people think of it like the boy who cried wolf now, but wait until it actually happens.
1966  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2014, 12:28:17 PM
I don't get the people who actually think this is a major trend reversal into the next bubble when huobi is still open and still leading. Like they didn't learn the first 8 times.

key word 'leading'

which way is it leading? UP

it's obvious it's reversal. we've had 100% confirmation and worse, but the chinese just don't care.

you would know it's a textbook reversal when there is bad news, the market spikes and then rallies. sellers are exhausted. you should expect a big rally, at least before the 14th.
I don't care about "news" - I care about what happens when the Chinese banks actually get shut down.
1967  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2014, 12:27:05 PM
1968  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2014, 12:20:50 PM
I don't get the people who actually think this is a major trend reversal into the next bubble when huobi is still open and still leading. Like they didn't learn the first 4 times.
1969  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where is the money going to come from to rally bitcoin? on: April 02, 2014, 12:04:58 PM
You guys should be focus on getting the "money in" from people actually using bitcoin as a currency for commerce rather than from "investors"!

investors must come first to set up the infrastructure. It cant happen the other way around.
Even if this was true, it means investing into just that: infrastructure. It doesn't mean buying bitcoins.
1970  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where is the money going to come from to rally bitcoin? on: April 02, 2014, 11:52:46 AM
You guys should be focus on getting the "money in" from people actually using bitcoin as a currency for commerce rather than from "investors"!
1971  Economy / Speculation / Re: You are here. on: April 02, 2014, 11:41:04 AM
Hey look I can draw random lines and triangles too:

1972  Economy / Speculation / Re: The RALLY have just begin? (+503 now) ;D on: April 01, 2014, 11:06:33 AM
1973  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2014, 10:30:35 AM
damn what a dumb move closing that short with peanuts for profit.

That wasn't your problem. You did very well there. The problem was that you didn't have enough coins to short because you didn't load up enough below $450.
On bfx you can use USD as collateral to short. I actually could have shorted about 8 times more than I did.

Didn't know that. I'm still new there. Isn't that like naked short-selling? I mean there still has to be someone willing to lend you the coins in a swap, right?

You had to pay a swap cost, I'm assuming. That means if you had a huge pile of coins, you could lend them out without exchange rate risk. Another benefit of having a big stash. The risk isn't any higher than keeping fiat on the exchange.


You are borrowing btc from other traders. Yes there is a swap cost but the swap cost on btc is negligible compared to the swap cost on usd.  USD runs 0.1%-1% per day while btc runs 0.01% per day or less.
1974  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2014, 10:12:48 AM
already 2300btc to get back to the high on bitfinex
1975  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2014, 10:01:30 AM
damn what a dumb move closing that short with peanuts for profit.

That wasn't your problem. You did very well there. The problem was that you didn't have enough coins to short because you didn't load up enough below $450.
On bfx you can use USD as collateral to short. I actually could have shorted about 8 times more than I did.
1976  Economy / Speculation / Re: My wife on: April 01, 2014, 09:38:54 AM
sell the wife to buy more coins
1977  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2014, 09:37:00 AM
Do people really believe that by analyzing the past prices one can tell whether the PBoC rumor is true or false?

When money flow from china/banks stop, it will cause changes in supply and demand which TA is excellent at detecting.
1978  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2014, 09:31:54 AM
Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.

... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!

this is not at all how technical analysis works...

Technical analysis is not at all how bitcoin works...
People say bitcoin doesn't follow TA but bitcoin actually follows TA more than any other asset, due to the predictable fixed supply and relatively static fundamentals.
1979  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2014, 09:17:54 AM
People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.
This is not like the other rallies at all:



... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
That's not going to fix that the EMA has been breached twice and is now sloping downwards.
1980  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 01, 2014, 09:14:56 AM
damn what a dumb move closing that short with peanuts for profit.
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