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21  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 06, 2023, 09:00:51 PM
And you want to buy their Bitcoin ETF!.... Think again! #NYKNYB

Dude...nobody here will ever buy a spot ETF but millions of investors would love using it without having to worry about self custody or figuring out how to use an exchange. That's the whole meaning of it about spot ETF's.

One of the main problems with all ETFs is that any centralized organization requires trust. In fact, they can endlessly issue their ersatz bitcoins if they manage to resolve the issue with the regulatory authorities. So we can only hope they don't issue much more. 21 million real bitcoins and an infinite number of centralized ersatz bitcoins. And the problem is that for average Joe, there is no difference between real bitcoins and their centralized replacement. Even if we understand the difference, it's really important to us that average Joe doesn't get fooled either. Bitcoin is either for everyone, or it will not be able to fully work for a small group of people who understand.



Except with bitcoin they would find it hard to issue fake tokens without backing with real BTC as it will all be visible to everyone because of the blockchain. Unlike everything else, btc is easily auditable.
This might be the only way that large scale institutional money can get access to BTC legally and stay compliant.
Also I believe that this will further increase the publics awareness of bitcoin which will have a positive effect too.
Yes I acknowledge that these institutes may end up owning a disproportionately large amount of bitcoin and would be subject to GOVs heavy handedness if they so choose to do so. The only way they can get their hands it though is through sellers selling it.
What I mean by that is if the sellers refuse to sell then BR and the like will not be able to accumulate what they want. Something tells me though that most will sell some/all at some price or another.
As long as the majority of people continue to do trade using FIAT then people will always sell their BTC at some price point. The key is to stop using FIAT altogether and trade using BTC. That is when Hyperbitcoinisation happens.
22  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 03, 2023, 03:10:44 PM
My body is ready for up only season.


@rektcapital
Only 8 months left until the #BTC  Halving

After that, $BTC will most likely enjoy parabolic Post-Halving upside

In the meantime, there is scope for at least one or two deeper BTC corrections

We're slowly running out of Pre-Halving retracement opportunities
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1687037871822147584

This is going the most monitored halving ever. A lot of money is expecting a bull run until 6 months after halving. I am not sure how can we have severe retracements, even if as usual mixed feelings here: opportunity to stack more sats, bitcoin just being bitcoin vs the joy of seeing hyperbitcoinisation a little bit closer.

I think we were robbed of a parabolic, blow off top in 2021. The macro financial, worldwide situation due to COVID and China banning bitcoin at such a pivotal moment in the bull run stopped us going to over $100,000 imo.

This time we have multiple probable Spot ETF approvals by big players. I hope I’m not being deluded when I say, I think $180,000 to $250,000 is likely in 2025 at some point.

Life changing money, brother.

I also think a big part of the lack of blow off top was all the scam exchanges, lending companies, and other fucktards selling off all the bitcoin of their clients to buy shitcoins instead.

I believe that one day we (as a race, and not the esteemed members of WO who already appreciate this) will look back at this and say 'what were we thinking?' We swapped the most valuable thing on the planet for some worthless garbage so that we could trade that for FIAT (more worthless garbage).
I guess the only way to learn is the hard way for many people.
23  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2023, 10:39:05 AM
Getting sick from all those woke, anti-white, transgenders, political correctness bullshit these days.

Jezus.. Disney really wants to go bankrupt even after $900 million mega flops.

What's next; Mel Gibson playing Martin Luther King, Morgan Freeman as Nicola Tesla.



It's pretty disturbing agenda driven drivel.
Disney have become pretty evil and rightfully losing a lot of money due to stupid decisions instead of entertaining and staying humble and respectful to its audiences.

In the 90s they were awesome making the best animation movies and crazy big sexy action movies like The Rock and Armageddon.

Mega brands such as Star Wars have now become completely toxic and no longer special or fun.

They probably should have cast Tom Cruise for the sequel trilogy movies to breathe some fresh life into it and never done a single TV show either.
The practical Tom Cruise stunts stuff could have gone hand in hand with Star Wars I think.
The stupid thing is I didn't mind Rey or Finn at all. Interesting start with young characters but what they did with them and how Rey was straight away perfect and the old heroes got killed off one by one is just dumbassery.

The streaming subscriber only model just doesn't work for such a big brands either I think. It completely dilutes things.

But a bigger problem indeed is the injection of politics in everything they do.
What a waste.

Do normal market forces not play a part in economics anymore? Surely the more crap that comes out like this the more people are turned away from it and the less profits they make.
Even with the ESG kickbacks there has to be a point of no return.
It feels to me that society as a whole is beginning to push back against the woke culture more now than ever and that pushback is only growing stronger.
Perhaps I am being too optimistic?
24  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 02, 2023, 08:55:15 AM
Hot off my new 3D printer (Creality K1)
Was hoping that this might kick off the next bull run?
Printed using Gold silk PLA.




nice!

I hope it has balls...

This Bull has strong support for sure, according to the first pic  Cool

Yes I thought the same thing when it was printing.
I envisaged the support as my WO brethren and that the slow build of the bull (about 5 hours) as the patience it takes to HODL for the bull.
So many parallels its uncanny.
25  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2023, 10:28:06 PM
Hot off my new 3D printer (Creality K1)
Was hoping that this might kick off the next bull run?
Printed using Gold silk PLA.


26  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2023, 03:19:59 PM
Just got this mail... can't understand why it landed in my spam folder:



Hi Mrs. Johnson, We have deposited the 27 BTC which amount to (819,134.64 USD) as you requested into your bitcoin portfolio at www.*redacted*.net

Customer Id: *redacted*
Password: *redacted*



I guess I'm going to buy a new lambo with that money

I got the exact same mail myself yesterday

these cool ledger devices.. such a joy

Yeah tell me about it.
All the trouble started after their data breach.
Plebs.
27  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2023, 01:54:24 PM
Just got this mail... can't understand why it landed in my spam folder:



Hi Mrs. Johnson, We have deposited the 27 BTC which amount to (819,134.64 USD) as you requested into your bitcoin portfolio at www.*redacted*.net

Customer Id: *redacted*
Password: *redacted*



I guess I'm going to buy a new lambo with that money

I got the exact same mail myself yesterday
28  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 22, 2023, 09:51:17 PM
O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!
29  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 22, 2023, 10:48:55 AM
I found this story fascinating:

Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go.
The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi.
Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down).

A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent?
I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years.
What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps.

See the discussion of BIP-42 here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/

You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent.

It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi.

Perhaps it was not his intent, albeit we would never know, I assume, but, then, how to deal with bitcoin "evaporation"?
We, as a humanity, seem to have lost about 20% of ALL bitcoins that would ever be in a short 14 years.
I know that people dismiss it and say that the rest are just getting more valuable. True, but only in a short time.
However, think about it long term: a complete loss is inevitable within relatively short historical time frames.
So far, we were losing btc at a 1.36% 0.286% (of the total supply) a year.
With the same rate of loss going forward, it would be 59.5 350 years until all btc is lost.
If the loss would decrease by a factor of 10, then it is 595 3500 years.

I find it amusing that the original code of Satoshi had in it a "revitalization" of bitcoin by a new issuance cycle after 256 years.
As 256 is < than 350 (my original number), but > than 59.5 there might would still be some non-zero btc remain when the new "cycle' would supposedly start, according to the original code, therefore, bitcoin never 'evaporates' fully and instead, revitalizes. If the rate of loss remains at 1.36% a year, all bitcoin evaporates before even the original Satoshi's solution (or omission/caveat) can work.

There could be another solution (but I like Satoshi's better):
1. Change to the address system so everybody has to send their btc every, say, 50 100 years.
2. From that, surmise the actual "losses" and make a small random seepage of new btc, so total number never exceeds 21 mil. Not sure how to do it in code.

TL;DR All bitcoin will eventually "evaporate" according to the current code and historical human behavior. BIP-42 might have been detrimental to the future (hundreds of years from now).

EDIT: the math is even worse: 1.36% loss a year, see correction. We would need to know the average loss per year pretty soon, maybe in the next couple of decades.


Be reminded of this quote:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198.msg1647#msg1647

Your solution to a problem, that very well may or may not happen, will be more of a detriment to the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Forcing people to act a certain way in order to keep participating?.. where to next?

Changing the rules mid game is the reason why we are in this situation. Dollar back by faith not gold, money printer go brrr! de-valuation of your money and time, etc etc.

I have to strongly disagree with you that bitcoin will eventually "evaporate". If we humans are so dumb to "lose access" to every single bitcoin, every single sat, then we have bigger issues to worry about.

Historical human behavior, relatively short in the grand scheme of things, has shown, we are exceptionally good at doing what humans do, and that is survive!


Considering how often humanity changes what it believes to be 'money' then I think something would have been put in place by then to mitigate this problem. Also I don't believe that we would continue to lose BTC at the rate described as we understand how valuable it really is. Perhaps a unit smaller than a sat might eventually exist?
Who knows.
I certainly don't lose any sleep over it considering the immediate hurdles bitcoin faces. I am feeling pretty smug right now though knowing that adoption is inevitable.
30  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2023, 06:49:40 AM
By the way,..... I would like to mention:

Some of you may know that a bit over a week ago, Binance US had stated that it may lose its banking services, so it suggested that either people withdraw their USD or convert them over to USDT.

I converted all mine over to USDT and then re-established my buy/sell orders on Binance US as part of the BTC/USDT pair, and so it was a bit strange that about 3.5 hours ago (calculated from the time of this post), I was waiting for my sell order at $28,900 to fill, and then all of a sudden all of my orders filled from $28,900 all the way up to $129,400... .. and there was some kind of a fat finger or something, and then the price moved back down to $28,800-ish... so I bought back all the BTC that I had sold (plus a little extra), and reset my BTC sell orders and also ended up with some extra USDT out of the deal, too.. ..  I don't really want to disclose the amounts, but it surely adds up... and I have not exactly added it up.. I suppose that I could do some math at some point.

I would have had my BTC sell orders (with the USDT pair) up to $150k; however, at the time that I set my orders (maybe a week and a half ago), their system did not allow me to set sell orders higher than $130k... but this fat finger, or whatever it was, had ended up buying bitcoin all the way up to $138k. .. When I just reset my sell orders, it allowed me to set them up to $145k... so usually those kinds of fat fingers do not happen twice, even though sometimes some variation of them can happen when the order books get cleared out like that.. or who knows what caused such a thing?

The market and the orders on Binance US's BTC/USDT pair seem to be working normally now, and it is difficult to know what caused such a spurt in the price.. whether a bug, a fat finger, or just very illiquid markets.. or even manipulation?

Nice one JJG
31  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 05, 2023, 04:48:28 PM
Interesting omissions include XRP and ETH.
Make your own conclusions from this.

They don't want to use all their FUD up at once.
Saving that shit for another day I'm sure.
I swear this bear market is one of the most tedious so far and I have been through a few I can tell you.
32  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2023, 08:42:17 AM
That has to be a CB record.
6 in a row.
33  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 23, 2023, 08:16:50 AM
The Wall Street grifts never cease to amaze me. But I guess they learned from the best (shitcoin ICOs and DeFi scams).

WTAF.   Roll Eyes

https://www.cnbc.com/select/what-is-stock-lending/

Shorts on your shorts hmmmmm How could that possibly go wrong?
34  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2023, 04:59:34 PM
... if you remind yourself how many people still believe in $$$ (fiat) for such a long time on this planet, the a$$hole-to-bitcoiner ratio turns out clearly in their favour "favour".
Opinions are not facts ...



Lol, The amount of times this has literally happened to me.
These days I swing much more to the right.
35  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2023, 11:11:11 AM
For those who might be interested in being able to cross borders and take their BTC with them with nothing more than a mental image and a single word, have a look at sparrow wallet.
One will need to select a 'border wallet' when using this function.
Using this wallet it is possible to generate a random grid of all the seed words possible.
You can then draw a "Picture" super imposed on this grid which is far easier to remember than trying to remember a 12 or 24 word phrase (well at least it is for me!).
You can take a picture of the original grid BEFORE you draw the picture and if it falls into the wrong hands then it is pretty useless since the criminal/gov official will not know the picture you drew and therefore cannot recover your funds.
I personally would not use it for long time cold storage but might be useful for those in a tight spot.
Worth checking it out.
36  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2023, 07:13:49 AM
I haven't been able to post much, but I have been reading and following the thread whenever I have the chance. I was wondering, am I the only one who reads this thread backwards to catch up on new posts?

Anyhow, I've been busy updating my servers in the datacenter where I work. It had been four years since my last visit, and I needed to replace a failed hard drive with new SSD drives, as well as update some old cPanel VMs.

All was going well until I forgot the admin password - un-fucking-believable! Panic set in as I never forget passwords or at least have them securely stored somewhere. This hypervisor contained 12 important VMs and our Primary DNS, and after an hour of trying every possible password, websites and webapps started dropping! I knew I knew the password, as I remembered rebooting it a few years back (it had over 1000 days of uptime). It was late, and the stress and pressure were really getting to me - I'm not usually like this, I work well under pressure. In fact, back in high school, I used to complete my assignments the night before and still do better than 95% of the class. Eventually, I managed to crack into the box, change the admin password and booted everything back up. Just the thought of what would have happened, caused this sinking feeling I wouldn't want to have again!

I think I'll pull the plug with working at the next ATH (whenever that may be). While I've always thought that I don't need to work, but rather want to work, the truth is that many people rely on me to show up, causing me to need to work! However, it has all started to really get to me.

As you may know, I work in IT, and the ever-changing landscape is starting to affect me negatively. I used to enjoy it, but now, even small things are starting to bother me - dropping support for "screen"? What the fuck? My muscle memory for ctrl-a-d is ingrained in my fingers! Now they want me to use tmux? That stuff is dreadful - or am I just getting too old for this shit?

CentOS has stopped development of CentOS 8 in favour of CentOS stream, and I'm not sure why. I couldn't be bothered with digesting the information to work out the advantages, etc. How does this affect me? cPanel will drop support for CentOS 7 in June 2024, and I think they've already dropped support for CentOS 8, and will not support any Stream variants. Anyhow, they're pushing for a paid version of CloudLinux, which I was very tempted to use to replace the current setup as I thought there weren't many options.

I was wrong - AlmaLinux and RockyLinux are excellent alternatives. The younger me would have realized this years ago! What I'm noticing is that I'm not doing my due diligence or researching. Has the landscape gotten so big? Am I just getting too tired to learn more, or am I holding onto the past? Or has YouTube Shorts and Instagram rewired my brain to have the attention span of a 10-year-old?


TL;DR - CentOS is now AlmaLinux

I know where your coming from.
Having worked in IT for a number of years the appetite for learning yet another distro or windows install wanes.
Eventually you get to the stage of not giving a cr@p and thats when I got out.
Too many people rely on your skillset to not care so it was time to change my job.
To be fair the size and scope of IT these days is so vast that you need many specialists.
I now enjoy my retirement with more sedate things but still tinker with computers on things that interest me.
Also remember that if you were to drop dead today your position at work would probably be filled within a week.
Life is too short to not enjoy it.

The last few months have taken its toll, both mentally and physically. I feel the under appreciation and the demands from some clients/customers to have things finalized in an unrealistic time frame hasn’t helped!

My dilemma is that I own the business and while some clients are a pain, I still consider them almost family. Some have been with me for almost 20 years, the thought of just dumping them and running, doesn’t sit well.

If I was an employee, I probably would have been relaxing on the beach with @El duderino_, posting “Where Am I?” clues.

But starting to come to terms with the idea of letting it all go! Maybe it’s time to start planning an exit strategy.

I am happy you got out and are enjoying retirement. You are right, life is way too short!


Well you will have to leave it at some point whether willingly or otherwise!
Might as well be willingly.
37  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2023, 12:17:48 AM
many of these AA and NA groups are gateways into religion...  though it may help some to get rid of drugs, I think they only change one addiction/obsession for another

Reminds of an old Cheech and Chong sketch
A bible basher knocks on a door and says
"I used to be all messed up on drugs now Im all messed up on the Lord"
Made me chuckle
38  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2023, 12:07:07 AM
I haven't been able to post much, but I have been reading and following the thread whenever I have the chance. I was wondering, am I the only one who reads this thread backwards to catch up on new posts?

Anyhow, I've been busy updating my servers in the datacenter where I work. It had been four years since my last visit, and I needed to replace a failed hard drive with new SSD drives, as well as update some old cPanel VMs.

All was going well until I forgot the admin password - un-fucking-believable! Panic set in as I never forget passwords or at least have them securely stored somewhere. This hypervisor contained 12 important VMs and our Primary DNS, and after an hour of trying every possible password, websites and webapps started dropping! I knew I knew the password, as I remembered rebooting it a few years back (it had over 1000 days of uptime). It was late, and the stress and pressure were really getting to me - I'm not usually like this, I work well under pressure. In fact, back in high school, I used to complete my assignments the night before and still do better than 95% of the class. Eventually, I managed to crack into the box, change the admin password and booted everything back up. Just the thought of what would have happened, caused this sinking feeling I wouldn't want to have again!

I think I'll pull the plug with working at the next ATH (whenever that may be). While I've always thought that I don't need to work, but rather want to work, the truth is that many people rely on me to show up, causing me to need to work! However, it has all started to really get to me.

As you may know, I work in IT, and the ever-changing landscape is starting to affect me negatively. I used to enjoy it, but now, even small things are starting to bother me - dropping support for "screen"? What the fuck? My muscle memory for ctrl-a-d is ingrained in my fingers! Now they want me to use tmux? That stuff is dreadful - or am I just getting too old for this shit?

CentOS has stopped development of CentOS 8 in favour of CentOS stream, and I'm not sure why. I couldn't be bothered with digesting the information to work out the advantages, etc. How does this affect me? cPanel will drop support for CentOS 7 in June 2024, and I think they've already dropped support for CentOS 8, and will not support any Stream variants. Anyhow, they're pushing for a paid version of CloudLinux, which I was very tempted to use to replace the current setup as I thought there weren't many options.

I was wrong - AlmaLinux and RockyLinux are excellent alternatives. The younger me would have realized this years ago! What I'm noticing is that I'm not doing my due diligence or researching. Has the landscape gotten so big? Am I just getting too tired to learn more, or am I holding onto the past? Or has YouTube Shorts and Instagram rewired my brain to have the attention span of a 10-year-old?


TL;DR - CentOS is now AlmaLinux

I know where your coming from.
Having worked in IT for a number of years the appetite for learning yet another distro or windows install wanes.
Eventually you get to the stage of not giving a cr@p and thats when I got out.
Too many people rely on your skillset to not care so it was time to change my job.
To be fair the size and scope of IT these days is so vast that you need many specialists.
I now enjoy my retirement with more sedate things but still tinker with computers on things that interest me.
Also remember that if you were to drop dead today your position at work would probably be filled within a week.
Life is too short to not enjoy it.
39  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 22, 2023, 08:03:49 PM
Screw the price
Heres another Lymerick

There once was a young man named Green
Who grew so abnormally lean
flat and compressed
Till his back squeezed his chest
and sideways he couldn't be seen.


40  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2023, 08:08:08 AM
There once was a young man named Wright
Whos speed was much faster than light
He set out one day
In a relative way
and returned on the previous night.
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