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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 17, 2024, 12:18:12 AM
This guy has to be a WO man no?
https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1747390552675332215?s=20
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2024, 11:03:25 PM
Well that ETF approval was a right palava.
Anyway, they are off to the races tomorrow. Expect some chop.
Nice to see the regular WO bros still here.
Tick tock next block.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2024, 10:22:16 AM
Speaking of movies.
I watched Dream Scenario starring Nicolas cage.
I thought it was pretty good for a recent production considering all the crap these days.
Made me laugh and weirded me out a bit too.
Gave me a bit of a black mirror vibe.
Worth a watch 7/10
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 22, 2023, 09:06:24 AM
Bitcoin is having a nice run but with its mempool issues currently you can really see the effect on higher throughput blockchains. Solana and ADA seem to be crushing it as a result. I hope Bitcoin can get this figured out. It is way too early in the cycle to be having these issues. Makes you wonder who these people are making transactions currently.
This mempool congestion is annoying but luckily it shouldn't affect me too badly. I paid a much lower than usual fee today to transfer half a coin to one of my OTC dudes because I anticipated a possible Xmas dip and I liked $44k. I needed to give the taxman his monthly pound of flesh and have some extra bank money to cover utilities etc while I'm in Mexico. Surprisingly it confirmed quickly.

I should be good now until April and hopefully by then this pathetic ordinals crap should have passed like a constipation turd and fees will be more reasonable. Today's transaction was large enough that the fee really wasn't that important. It's still much cheaper and faster than any other payment method except cash hand-to-hand.

The one place where it will affect me is my ride to the airport. My go-to driver not only charges me much less than a taxi but he takes payment in Bitcoin. The fee I paid today is more than he charges me. I guess I'll have to pay him with fiat. Oh well.

Can you and your driver not setup something using lightning?
Have a good Christmas BTW.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 19, 2023, 10:29:38 AM

[...]


I like the Green Wallet, and thanks for letting us know they are working on Lightning.  Green allows RBF and Coin Control.

With the extremely high fees, the time is coming when I need to learn how to use Lightning.

Another vote for Green, I see. Good to know. Will keep an eye on it re. LN integration.

Yes, the on-chain fee size is becoming an issue for small payments. But then again, buying coffee on-chain is like using a chainsaw to cut butter. So yeah, 2nd-layer BTC networks are important, and will be more so in the future. I know (have been reading here and there, and also in WO) that LN has its problems, but I hope they get ironed out and we end up with a robust 2nd-layer network, with the uptime and reliability of on-chain transactions, that's going to be standardized and adopted worldwide as a payment method. Michael Saylor is actively promoting this IIRC, as is Jack Dorsey and other big players out there. And no, LTC won't cut it, as it is just a matter of time (i.e., network load) before it clogs up too. The solution must be by design, not by low utilization.

I use Phoenix wallet on my phone for lightning.
It is a custodial wallet and pretty straightforward to use to.
I tried lightning on Green wallet (I have a Blockstream Jade) but found it to be a bit cumbersome. It is still in the experimental stage so stands to reason I guess. I am sure it will be my goto wallet for everything btc related once they iron out the bugs.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 08, 2023, 09:26:51 PM
Talking about erections and "all-in"...

$44,520 @ Stamp as I type this. Another AYH.

Onwards & upwards!

Noice
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2023, 10:40:51 PM
I think the hardest part for newcomers is the first bull run followed by a hefty correction.  It's hard to deal with the "I'm a genius" followed by the "shit I fucked up" roller coaster of emotions.  Many of those newcomers sell and call it a loss.  Some of the newcomers tough it out and live to see the next bull run with newfound confidence in the bitcorn.

This is a big reason to do the "don't invest what you can't afford to lose". Being down and in a shitty position can force you to do things that just make things worse.

This is very true.  However, "what you can afford to lose" becomes a sliding scale for many people while facing losses they may not have expected.  Maybe they initially thought "Shit, I can afford to throw $10,000 at this and lose it worst case scenario." Then suddenly they see $10,000 turning into $4,000 and start thinking "Well better to have $4,000 instead of $3,000 in my pocket".

There are many studied psychological theories such as Status Quo Bias and Risk Aversion Bias that greatly impact people and thier decision making abilities.  Simply put, you may find yourself doubting the decision you made today even though you're currently 100% sure of it.  Emotions are a very powerful and funny thing that many folks do not understand how to control or be self aware of.

A close friend of mine went to college for many years and studied investing and finance.  While speaking to him during one of the bear markets he asked "How are you feeling with the current bear market?" I told him that it's just part of the cycle and I've been buying as much as I can on a weekly basis.  I told him everything has cycles including the stock market.  Now is the best time to buy.  He told me that this strategy and mindset is one of the hardest things to overcome in the investing/finance world and something many (even expierenced) investors struggle with.


My father, who is still alive, got burned on an investment back in the 1980s.

To this day he refuses to discuss it with me, but it must have been a bad enough blow to his psyche and/or wallet, because he has never privately invested in anything since. He has become far too risk averse.

That is the real tragedy and lesson: not getting back into the game once burned.

He sat on the sidelines and missed so many investment opportunities from the 80's, 90's, 2000's and beyond...

This is one of the reasons I used to worry about shitcoins. I think many have entered into the space and then tar bitcoin with the same brush once they get rekt. This then leaves a sour taste in their mouth and are twice as reluctant to get into the real btc when they have a chance. Still I guess everyone eventually buys bitcoin at the price they deserve. In this case, those that got burnt will probably be the laggards (last 10% of people) that finally enter the space and end up paying the highest prices possible for their poor decision making.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 22, 2023, 07:33:03 PM
OT any of you guys hosting your own node using Robosats for stacking sats?
https://github.com/RoboSats/robosats
Just cam across it today in the Umbrel app store and am intrigued.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2023, 09:50:20 PM
Finally moved my stash to a Blockstream Jade from my Ledger Nano S.
I had made sure that all my backups etc worked before hand but it is still nerve wracking sending all your wealth around and trusting that it all works as intended.
I feel relieved although I probably picked the worst time to move bitcoin around due to the current fees.
Oh well all done now.

You keep everything in one place?

Split over multiple hw wallets
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2023, 04:19:21 PM
Finally moved my stash to a Blockstream Jade from my Ledger Nano S.
I had made sure that all my backups etc worked before hand but it is still nerve wracking sending all your wealth around and trusting that it all works as intended.
I feel relieved although I probably picked the worst time to move bitcoin around due to the current fees.
Oh well all done now.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 05, 2023, 08:44:07 AM
The price is up over $35K and seems to show no signs of slowing down. It will be interesting to see if once the ETF  is approved if we’ll see a selloff or a moon shot. The perfect storm seems to be aligning between the timing of this rally, the coming ETF approvals, and the halving. 2024 could be one of the bigger years we’ve seen for BTC.

I don’t think that there will be a single moonshot, so to speak, as BR and other hedge funds will be allocating capital to BTC over the long term so I think we will see a sustained rise over time. There may be an initial spike when the floodgates open but it will settle to a nice inflow over time and any spikes will just be noise.
SOMA.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 22, 2023, 09:25:46 AM
Well friends, my DCA days are over. It's time to start selling. I'm a little sad to spoil my stash, but it's about something important. For years I was not satisfied with the city and the institution where I work. I was recently invited to a prestigious institution with better pay and less working hours. For opsec reasons, I don't want to say what I work, I'll just say that it's a very prestigious position, and only 1 month of working days is required per year. My work is a hobby and there is no question of retiring, because that's what I'll be doing anyway.

The city is large, with a rich history and culture, with many places for entertainment, recreation and restaurants. The people are good, cordial and I feel very well there for 1 year now. So I decided to buy an apartment. I'm putting off the idea of a house for now because I don't have that many bitcoins. My plan for the apartment is to use a mortgage, paying only 20% of the price now. It's a small percentage of my bitcoins, so I'll be able to swallow it. When the price reaches some level, I have decided to repay the entire loan by selling bitcoins, and my goal is to sell no more than 10% for the purpose. It's all worth it, because it's how I drastically change my lifestyle in the right direction. And I'm insured with my bitcoins, in case of financial difficulties to sell some more and not lose the apartment.
Good luck with the move.
I know I sold some BTC a few years ago to pay off my mortgage and although those same BTC today would easily be worth a sh*t load more, I don’t regret the decision as life for both my wife and I has been pretty much stress free since owning our own home.
Besides, even though we are never satisfied with our stack, we are not ‘uncomfortable’.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2023, 08:47:35 AM
almost 10 years of bitcoin for me.. .. life before bitcoin and life after getting into bitcoin.

My 10 year anniversary in bitcoin is in May 2024. Hopefully we have an approved spot ETF by then & an ATH maybe.

I was a fresh faced mid 20’s noob back then. I have done very well from bitcoin but my God, it ages you.

Funny how many of us here are celebrating our 10th year since ‘enlightenment’!
I too started out on the mining front to make a bit of “free money”.
Now, setup well and retired I find the idealisms of freedom much more appealing.
I thought E Snowden’s speech at the recent Bitcoin conference in Amsterdam was quite inspiring.
You guys catch it?
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 02, 2023, 08:19:15 AM
O/T I noticed that the mempool has all but cleared this morning. Only about a dozen blocks backlogged.
Maybe the guys in Wizard hats have come to their senses?
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 02, 2023, 08:16:22 AM
.....

You missed an intermediate bet ($4). Yes, Joe will eventually win exactly $1. The problem is that the bets increase exponentially, and this can quickly bankrupt him in case of a long losing streak.

It's called Martingale. More here:

Martingale (betting system)

But assume random Joe is rich to begin with.  
So that the odds of black coming up enough times in a row to bankrupt him are astronomically small.
He just keeps going till he's up.
Then starts again with that one dollar. rinse and repeat.
I've heard when high rollers try this strategy, the house shuts them down after they are down and a betting limit has been reached.
So yeah, it doesn't work. What a surprise... lol

(fixed that 4$ bet.. I noticed that too right after posting Smiley...)

Or, rich Joe can start off with a $10 bet, thus winning $10, then rinse-repeat. On a ten-fold losing streak (unlikely, but possible), he would have lost just over $10000 and he would then have to bet another $10000 to recover his losses (and eventually end up winning only $10).

Although tempting, it is mathematically proven that the odds are against him on average.

To quote Ace Rothstein (Robert De Niro) in Casino (1995): "We're the only winners. The players don't stand a chance."

I remember years ago when my dear old late Dad told me this "strategy", I couldn't for the life of me figure out why it wouldn't work with say just a few dollars.
As mentioned above, I did do it on my last visit to a casino like 30 years ago, and walked away with 5$ or something. Of course in order to be up that $5, I had to
end my gambling fun right then and there, forever, which of course I didn't do, that's no fun. I promptly lost it all in the slots...After all, it was just house money, man!
Admittedly, I probably lost more trying to win it back. Yup, the house always wins...lol.  (unless you are a card counter, but then you just get kicked out, if recognized)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=no1c6rWw0co






I am living proof that there is a problem with this strategy.
Using an online casino.
I lost about $200 give or take doing just this.
What happened was I got a run of straight blacks (Unusual but it does happen!).
Of course I was betting RED.
No problem, or so I thought, until I hit the house rules that would not allow me to double up again.
It appears that the house has a maximum bid.
I am glad that this happened actually, as it stopped me from gambling any further and I have not set foot in a casino since (virtual or otherwise).
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 14, 2023, 12:28:01 PM

so I don't see why some 1900 BTC that will be sold would signal a crash?

I tend to agree since that is pretty much equivalent to two days of mining.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 21, 2023, 10:42:56 AM
Top 25 highest grossing movies of all time!!

1. Avatar: $2,923,706,026
2. Avengers: Endgame: $2,797,501,328
3. Avatar: The Way of Water: $2,320,250,281
4. Titanic: $2,257,844,554
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens: $2,068,223,624
6. Avengers: Infinity War: $2,048,359,754
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home: $1,921,847,111
8. Jurassic World: $1,671,537,444
9. The Lion King: $1,656,943,394
10. The Avengers: $1,518,815,515
11. Furious 7: $1,515,341,399
12. Top Gun: Maverick: $1,495,696,292
13. Frozen II: $1,450,026,933
14. Avengers: Age of Ultron: $1,402,809,540
15. The Super Mario Bros. Movie: $1,357,471,840*
16. Black Panther: $1,347,280,838
17. Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2: $1,342,139,727
18. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $1,332,539,889
19. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: $1,308,473,425
20. Frozen: $1,290,000,000
21. Beauty and the Beast: $1,263,521,126
22. Incredibles 2: $1,242,805,359
23. The Fate of the Furious: $1,238,764,765
24. Iron Man 3: $1,214,811,252
25. Barbie: $1,212,583,000

Currently in the theaters now.

I watched these movies almost 2/3 times and these were my favourites .
Avatar, Spider-Man, Avengers, Titanic, Black Panther

What's your favorite movie?

I have seen almost all of these and I can't say that I really enjoyed any of them.
Films that I found enjoyable were

The mask
As good as it gets
Groundhog day
The matrix
Schindlers list
All this super hero stuff I find too disconnected from reality and cant really get into them seriously.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 18, 2023, 01:34:48 PM
Well there is an almighty push down right now. just went below 25K.
Have we capitulated yet?
25K?  It didn't even make it down to 26K.

$26266 to be exact.

Funny how peeps just love to exaggerate during times like these?

Or alternatively, go to some non-referenced price ticker in order to select the price that best tells their story.\

Seems to happen every time, so not really that funny.


Ok... I will do it anyhow.. why not employ an emoji, or two, just for funzies?


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Well there is an almighty push down right now. just went below 25K.
Have we capitulated yet?
25K?  It didn't even make it down to 26K.

$26266 to be exact.
My bad. Looked at the Bitfinex exchange instead of bitstamp. Rookie mistake doh!

You can say that again.

 Shocked Shocked Shocked

[edited out]
CMC confirms it dipped to $25,490.11

Fuck CMC.

Who gives any ratt's asses about what CMC says, if that happens to not be our official referent.

Maybe @JJG spoiled it with his unexpected sell at $130K...and we are balancing it out.

I kid, I kid.

For sure mine was a fluke.. and my fluke was right around June 20, 2023. . - so already 2 months ago.

EDIT: Btw, Mr market had a severe bitcoin dip in September 2015 just before the start of the real bull of late 2015-2017 (28 mo long, going from $190 to 20K or about 105X)

I recall that, exactly... and it does seem like a kind of similar pattern.. of sorts, even though none of them play out the same and even though there are a lot more BIGGER players in BTC these days, including various financial tools that they have and if the patterns largely still fit, then all of those financial tools and BIGGER players might well end up just washing each other out.

It's a wash.

You heard it here first.

Hey JJG Is it Thursday yet?
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2023, 10:02:45 PM
Well there is an almighty push down right now. just went below 25K.
Have we capitulated yet?

25K?  It didn't even make it down to 26K.

$26266 to be exact.
My bad. Looked at the Bitfinex exchange instead of bitstamp. Rookie mistake doh!
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2023, 09:46:52 PM
Well there is an almighty push down right now. just went below 25K.
Have we capitulated yet?
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