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81  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 28, 2022, 10:47:52 AM
One more...


What is really disturbing about this is that the YT video has had over 26 million views in less than 24 hours (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myjEoDypUD8) about a couple of celebrities having an altercation over a joke but a another video by A Antonopolous giving an introduction into bitcoin uploaded over 5 years ago (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1si5ZWLgy0&t=619s) hasn't even got over a million views!
I sometimes despair about the extent of the brainwashing. Is it too late to save us???
82  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2022, 01:54:40 PM



Here is a quote by C. S. Lewis
Probably the best way to go I guess

"If we are all going to be destroyed by an atomic bomb, let that bomb when it comes find us doing sensible
and human things—praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children,
playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a pint and a game of darts—not huddled together like
frightened sheep and thinking about bombs. They may break our bodies (a microbe can do that) but
they need not dominate our minds."
83  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2022, 08:38:48 AM
.....
Remember when the world war 1 started? Many thought that it would be all over by Christmas 2014!

Give or take a hundred years or so....
Lol! Thanks Sirazimuth date now fixed.
84  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2022, 12:17:15 PM

Personally I don't see how EVs will be viable if gas prices continue to go crazy (gas is used for much of electricity generation in Europe). Running them will cost as much as filling up with petrol soon and they cost far more to buy, so what is the point?

Once things settle down (and I think they probably will) towards the end of the year we could see major lift in the economies and a new ATH for BTC.


Maybe it will accelerate the use of renewables??
Not so sure about things settling down either?
Remember when the world war 1 started? Many thought that it would be all over by Christmas 1914!

edit: fixed date!!
85  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2022, 11:23:32 AM
snip

We (the west) are no better than the east in this regard.
Censorship and propaganda becomes the reality in the end burying the real truth.
Just look at censorship in the act of sedition during ww1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedition_Act_of_1918
86  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2022, 12:56:28 PM
I've been thinking about hookers, lambos and blow ever since my BTC became far more valuable than anything I've ever owned or had access to (fiat / homes etc) and of course since these are mentioned exactly in this thread a lot.

Blow
I don't do it at all, I've never felt comfortable smoking anything. I smoked a bit leisurely when going out at during university days 20 odd years ago but never since. To be fair I did do Shisha smoking when I was in Dubai. It was fun. Peppermint flavour seemed nice. Don't know if I'll ever go back.

Lambos
I think more expensive cars might just be a fucking headache for me to be honest regardless of how much my BTC would be worth. I already am too greedy to spend much on a cheapish SUV. I hardly drive these days. I was thinking about getting an Elon Musk Kart in a Model 3 or Model Y and could easily miss a BTC or part of one to get it. But they still seem pretty expensive to me (almost any new car is compared to what I used to pay) and I do worry about the whole electric carry on. The range often seems far too good to be true. Maybe think of them as achieving 60-65% per charge at most. Meh. It's less miles than a full tank of petrol in my current SUV which still drives pretty well. It just has a terrible stereo.

Hookers
I can easily afford pretty top notch ones with my dirty fiat money. There are also some "actresses" available here in the UK who I have admired privately quite a bit but I've often heard these are not worth the extra charge. Maybe I should just try and see for myself. Again it's been something I've been thinking about.


I probably just overthink most things and should enjoy life a bit more.

I'm finding the more wealth I have had, the more careful I have become.
It seems a bit ironic.

I hired a model 3 long range just this weekend to give it a go.
It was already 3 years old and when fully charged the car told me that it had around 280 miles of range (New I believe they have around 350 miles).
I was a bit dissapointed with the finish internally. The steering wheel felt like something out of a cheap simulator, the sun visors like thick cardboard and the 'wood' effect dash was just plain yuk.
The one redeeming feature was the acceleration which is like nothing I had experienced before. Ludicriously quick.
However, once you get to a certain age that feeling of wanting to go flat out everywhere wanes and you yearn for a more luxurious drive.
The driving was easy enough and you hardly ever use the brake pedal due to the regen braking.
I would just like more interior luxury for £50,000.

I know what you mean regarding being more careful with your money as you get wealthier although I believe it is more of a bitcoin thing.
Every time I have spent some bitcoin I look back at just how much it cost in todays value!!!
My DJI Mavic Pro is in todays rate a $44,500 drone!
87  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 28, 2022, 11:42:15 AM
WHy not both?? Tongue  Tongue  Roll Eyes


why not?  plenty of reasons..most obvious is I dont know many foolish enough to sell their coin at a price much lower than currently observed.... most certainly not around here anyway

However, I do know the road both ways are much closer than they appear. An all out ground war between Russia and NATO...or something more calamitous occurring could easily drive the price within that range. Even a protracted conflict between Ukraine and Russia will have noticeable effects I think.

------


-idle thoughts that have taken me quite some time to sort thru-

How did this come to be I sit and wonder... Warfare changed somewhere...some might say it was August 6th, 1945..some December 2nd, 1942 or maybe it was November 8th, 1895..

Nuclear weapons

I mean we have to talk about it right? This fucking madman is sitting over there right now with his finger on the button.


How and why have we come to a place where we threaten and hold hostage the entire population of this planet?  Yes...   ALL OF US.



Seriously we need to get a handle on this right fucking now. Someone who Putin trusts needs to step and say dude..walk this back man...just walk it back. What ever you think you need or want from the West can be worked out another way.

Or...he needs to be put down..because I dont think the guy will step down.

The reality of what is needed.

The 3.5% Rule
https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/publications/35-rule-how-small-minority-can-change-world

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
Quote
In each case, civil resistance by ordinary members of the public trumped the political elite to achieve radical change.

Quite extraordinarily..nonviolent movements prove the most successful.

Quote
Looking at hundreds of campaigns over the last century, Chenoweth found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.

That would be 5,111,332 people in Russia and 277,556,216 people globally.

Can we do this as a species? Can enough people stand up and say enough is enough! Another filter...a keyhole to pass through.

Its not just in Russia..its in the United States, the EU, India..China...its global and needs to be brought to heel. The nation states and autocrats who use fear, death and destruction to foster compliance from the general population. These cartels of weapons industry that perpetuate the seeds of war.

The last thing Ukraine needs right now is more guns, planes and bombs. It needs the people of Russia to realise they have been duped again by the political elite.

It needs Peace.

apologise if this is disjointed or filled with half formed thoughts...got a pretty good buzz going too.


We figured it out back in the 60s with MAD. Cooler heads prevailed, world realized that big powers need some space around them to feel safe (Cuba and US). Now we decided to test that theory again and see if Russia really needs that cushion. Regional conflict is being escalated into a global one. Now no one can back down without loosing face, we got to come to an edge before powers can sit down, do their dick measuring contest, then deescalate and pencil in some new lines on this globe. The closer we get to the edge the longer everyone shuts up about the new lines, cause you know, we almost just went over the edge.
So far, odds seems to be good that it'll happen before someone slips on that red button. Should then repeat again with China and Taiwan, India and Pakistan etc ... someone always wants to push that line so this is the best our species could come up with.

An interesting fact about the Drake equation (the equation by Frank Drake to calculate the likelihood of alien civilizations) is the last variable marked ‘L’.

N=……L
This variable determines the length of time a civilisation can communicate (or be in existence).
Perhaps the biggest problem with reaching other alien civilisations is that no civilisation lasts long enough to get to a technological state of interstellar travel before exterminating itself?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
88  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 26, 2022, 10:43:15 PM
Surprised to see the strength & resilience at the moment to be honest. Price is effectively unmoved despite us being on the verge of WW3. Maybe young bitcoin is maturing, maybe a large % of the weak hands have already mindrusted.

Will be interesting to see where we go next but the bottom could be in?


Well... this has been my thought recently.  But.  I have had a string of wrong theories so far recently, AND this is a time where all kinds of kooky things could happen.

For example... I was expecting the "bad guys" (Russia) to announce they would use Bitcoin to avoid sanctions, and that this would cause a negative sort of reaction in the bit central bank governments, and possibly things would be done that might cause shocks to the price.

BUT instead what has seemed to happen is the "good guys" (Ukraine) have invited funding from the world via Bitcoin.  This is a fairly interesting wrinkle.  As this puts the "righteous" use case in FRONT.  Good press for Bitcoin.  So now if the nation states that are likely to knee jerk to Russia using it would also be damaging Ukraine's situation.

But that really is Bitcoin doing Bitcoin things isn't it?

I have been telling my meatspace friends that Bitcoin is poised to go one way or the other fairly dramatically, but that I am not ready to bet on which way (though my long range bet never changes).

My theory on this is that the market is pricing in that the FED will not be so hawkish in their predicted rate rises now that war has/is breaking out.
So “risk on” assets are being piled back in to.
Unfortunately Bitcoin is seen as a risk on asset to most large investors at the moment.
Maybe this will change in the future but who knows?
89  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2022, 08:33:55 AM
....So... Putin just invaded Donbass.

Bitcoin might take dive. Maybe. MAYBE.

The next 24 hours are critical

Gold goes up, whilst bitcoin (digital gold) goes down. Illogical.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-markets-unravel-putin-launches-military-operation

This tells me that people still don't understand what bitcoin truly is.
This is precisely what bitcoin was invented for ffs.
90  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 21, 2022, 10:59:00 PM
I don’t think Russia are going to invade Ukraine. I think the US wants a war to happen & there are multiple reasons for that, mostly all to save their struggling economy & to justify reckless money printing & inflation. All I know is that long term BTC HODLER = not affected.



If the US wants a war then they will get one started no doubt.
Whatever happens you can be sure the msm will spin it that it was Russia’s fault no matter who starts it!
91  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2022, 10:09:32 PM

Just finished consuming all of the episodes.
Definitely enjoyed the earlier episodes more than the later ones.
Interesting that the two writers were also the two main starring actors.
Quite a bit of talent there, but totally agree with your comment... "There's a few misses".
Regardless, thanx again for turning me onto the show.

It seems there are only six seasons on Amazon Prime (Britbox). I know there are at least a couple more. I'm going to have to track them down. Now, where's that eyepatch?

Only six series were made.
Just finished watching them and there were some really good ones as well as a few misses.
I particularly enjoyed “the trial of Elizabeth gadget from series two.
92  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2022, 08:57:40 AM
cant wait for fusion plants to come on line. go tokamak!

It will be very interesting to see how the delivery of fusion energy might change the whole energy/political landscape.
In theory, this should allow us to have access to very cheap, almost limitless electricity.
Reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and removing the stranglehold other countries have on us due to the abundance of natural fossil fuels within those countries.
Also what will happen to Bitcoin when energy becomes cheaper?
Will there be a need for US war machine to protect the petrodollar?
Perhaps the production costs of these new nuclear plants might be too prohibitive to build enough of them to change the reliance on fossil fuels?
Will there be the political will to change the status quo?
93  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2022, 08:46:27 AM

Yeah, I remember how the science magazines were all excited about fission power in the 80s "in twenty years we will have working fission power plants, we are so close now".
They are still saying the same thing now. And I bet you that's what they are still saying when I die.
I would love to be wrong, but I doubt it.

I also wonder where they get the funding, it costs an arm and a leg to build those reactors and somehow they just magically get the money to build them, decade after decade. Are they funded by aliens trying to push us forward?

Ok, so maybe not decade after decade, but you know what i mean.

No I take that back, they do get their money decade after decade, I'm gonna go get me some coffee now.

I think you might mean fusion power is being promised.
Fission reactors already exist and indeed do provide some of our electricity already and have been doing so for around 3 to 4 decades.
94  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 11, 2022, 05:29:58 PM
Anyone got any ideas on why the mempool has ballooned out over the last day to some 50+ blocks?

The silent millions are waking up to the fact that bitcoin is the only real money and they all want in?

If only.
I find the behaviour of mempool rather fascinating. It runs along nice and quiet then all of a sudden we find that it is backed up by 100M or more.
Usually when that happens it is either during a feeding frenzy (Like the 2018 blowoff top) or, more often than not, a bunch of weak hands scrambling for the exit.
Not sure what is going on this time though as price is hanging around in the 43-44 range without moving too far in either direction??
95  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 11, 2022, 04:42:53 PM
Anyone got any ideas on why the mempool has ballooned out over the last day to some 50+ blocks?
96  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2022, 04:38:32 PM
Bitcoiners (or even cryptards) that really cling to this notion of bitcoin as an "investment" have the wrong mindset.

Instead when they think of bitcoin, it should be of putting money in their "bank".

That way, the idea of cashing out or liquidating at some future point becomes completely meaningless, and time becomes inconsequential.

"Yeah, I'm putting money in my bank today, with the plan of taking it all out after the next 4 years."

"I need to know when to liquidate my bank account at the next top."

"When do I sell all in my bank account?"

See? Why would you do that? Makes no sense.

Precisely what I do now.
I use Bitcoin as my savings account and only ever "cash out" when I require to buy something.
I use it exactly the same as I would a bank account.
Not really interested in trying to "Time the market", the market WILL inevitably be Bitcoin!!
97  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 05, 2022, 07:24:33 AM

What you guys think?


Just No!
It is exactly that reasoning that got us in the sh!t the first time round with Gold.
Don't get greedy trying to squeeze out a measly couple of percent.
By holding our on keys with ensure bitcoins decentralisation which means that we can't be hoodwinked by the establishment again.
Sheesh get some sleep man.
98  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 04, 2022, 08:16:00 AM
@hisslyness, @cAPSLOCK
Wow, that would be quite a headstart! Your kind offer is gratefully appreciated.
Amazon says it will take a few days to get all the stuff: some items are backordered.
After that, my first free half day will be dedicated to installation and configuration.

I know I'm currently docked with cAPSLOCK, not sure i've got a connection with hisslyness, but I'll open a 5M sat channel with your node when you get it configured.

hisslyness, drop me a PM if you're interested in a connection, if we aren't connected already.

The WO Lightning Cartel in the making!  Grin

Be careful, Biodom might ask you to move it to another thread (and Bob might open one). Smiley

All good Bob! we got a 5M sat channel from when we organized the LN Swap! Remember it was my fault i got you back into this LN wormhole!

Just to recap who is on the WO LN Hub

cAPSLOCK
BobLawblaw
hisslyness
Elwar (not sure if it is still active)
psycodad
machasm (not sure if still active)
d_eddie (Soon to be)

If i missed anyone who has a LN node, please let me know... I have some idle sats waiting for a channel!


I no longer have a participating ln node unfortunately.
I kept getting random freezes on the node and got fed up baby sitting it so closed the channels and drained it.
I have since rebuilt another one using raspiblitz but haven’t got any liquidity on it.
Just wanted to see if it was freezing again since it was rebuilt and it has run flawless since the rebuild but haven’t got round to adding any sats nor opening any channels.
Just too lazy really.
99  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2022, 08:17:37 PM
Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy  Shocked

EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?

Grow some balls! Going down after so many bullish news? We're going nowhere but up!  Cool

Honestly, it seems that price is just waiting for any excuse to act irrationally.
I haven’t sold a Satoshi during this whole downtrend.
Bought a couple of dips and just waiting it out.
I’ve got time and FIAT isn’t getting any better.
100  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2022, 09:40:37 AM
Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

Well,
This subject has been analysed many times in the thread:

MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

There you will find a spreadsheet with my computations:



There seems like the value of BTC is actually above the value of the share itself.
I am going to double check the computations, to see what’s wrong.
(This is literally the first thing I am doing awake).


You don’t seem to have allowed for all their debt.  They borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, at some point they need to repay it.

Probably by taking out another loan. That is the difference between BTC and FIAT. It makes sense to just keep borrowing more FIAT to pay off the previous debt as it continues to devalue over time. Try doing that with BTC and see where that gets you!
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