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201  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Stopping the curse of losing streak? on: April 07, 2024, 10:11:42 PM
Considering losing many times in a row or not turning in profit from gambling a curse is textbook gambler's fallacy.
Yes, your luck could turn, but it may as well not. You might lose too many bets in a row, because in reality your chances to win or lose each bet are entirely independent from each other. Matter of fact, the chances of winning are also independent from external events as well. So don't consider anything as a viable solution to break a curse.

To be honest the advise of playing a different game instead seems like nothing impressive. It's possible to do, but doesn't guarantee any different results. In fact slots have a much higher house edge than blackjack too so I don't think it'll matter in a positive way for most people too, at least statistically speaking.
202  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mixers and their reason to exist in the bitcoin ecosystem on: April 07, 2024, 07:21:04 PM
Giving up your privacy to "protect the children" is not a notion I'd expect from a 11 year old Bitcoin user.  What's next?  That we don't need privacy, because we have nothing to hide?   Roll Eyes
So by me saying that bitcoin is traceable you deduct that I'm an NSA supporter? Cool
aight  Cheesy
On a more serious note though, have you considered that passing your coins through a centralized "mixer" service isn't a real privacy enhancement?

It is both scam and unreal, because chain analysis is a scam itself.  As soon as a transaction is made, you can't tell if the coins have changed hands.
I take it that it's pretty unlikely for a known service address such as from a mixer or from an exchange to be of the same ownership as a third party sending coins to it. So chain analysis is pretty real and has been quite handy for many uses, one of which has been catching criminals.
203  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mixers and their reason to exist in the bitcoin ecosystem on: April 07, 2024, 06:06:51 PM
The whole concept of "tainted" coins is a scam in itself, organized by governments.
Lucky you never having received a payment from tainted coins. People who used mixers in this forum either indirectly by being paid through signature campaigns or as a paying customer have in the past faced issues.
Tainted coins aren't just an issue when having to deal with state authorities, civil society often enforces filters voluntarily also. And if banknotes could be traced back so efficiently as bitcoin I'm sure many institutions would refuse transactions with them too.

There's no denying that traceability is a feature of bitcoin. That can be good or bad at times. But not that great for criminals who seem to meet their fate one one way or another with mixers. So no, the concept of "tainted coins" isn't a scam. It's a real thing. Ethics is also a thing and money doesn't always trump it either. I remember in this forum people used to get tagged as scamers if they accepted payment to promote ponzi schemes for instance. And well, by the notion that ponzi schemes are unethical, one might as well say the same for coins taken away from someone else via means of hacking etc. So when the traceability of BTC is used to catch criminals and seize their ill-gotten gains, we should consider it a great feature imo.
204  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Mixers and their reason to exist in the bitcoin ecosystem on: April 07, 2024, 01:04:43 PM
Months ago someone had posted here with some evidence that the mixing of the a mixing service was inadequate to mask transactions but nobody seemed to take it seriously.

It's weird how many users on this forum were ready to overlook on-chain evidence while the platform in question was pumping thousands of USD every week in advertising directly towards forum users at the time. Now that there's some credible accusations of fraud it's hard to ignore these older accusations.

Admittedly I've never made any transactions that I would feel need mixing... But not to tout any supposed ethics from my side, it's very likely that if I knew of a mixer's mixing being bad while I was getting paid a substantial salary by them to make some forum posts, I'd likely also avoid contributing to their downfall. But maybe also if we apply hanlon's razor here (Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity), since most people probably don't care or don't need to use mixing, they probably wouldn't bother to check either.

But this begs the question, if such basic blockchain forensics had exposed this mixer months ago, how did they stay operational till now?
Are the majority of people who transact with bitcoin, even users of this forum, completely unable to do even the most basic blockchain forensic research? Because according to the post I linked, it was really obvious to pick up the trail of the lackluster mixing going on.

The real cost of mixin'

One has to also consider, at what cost are mixing services operating? Many of them end up having their Admins arrested with unknown fates in international trials and jails. Others end up exit scamming. And would they do so if they were making profits in the first place? Thinking about it, is there ANY fee that would make it worth it to give out bitcoins in exchange for potentially tainted coins that are possibly connected to crime and fraud? Especially given how easy BTC transactions are to track? Based on the above knowledge, many suspicions can be raised. What motivation would someone have to provide a mixing service if he was to risk life in jail or even running it at a loss?

Credible suspicion against mixers

Could mixers be honeypots? It's not an unlikely possibility that mixers are created and operated by state agencies as a way to catch high-profile criminals that are under the impression of "masking" their transactions. But in fact these services could be used as evidence later.

Another really suspicious event that happened only around a month prior to the aforementioned mixer's demise is the revelation that the infamous Lazarus hacker group appears to have been using the mixer's coins for their own benefit. This revelation gives some credence to theories that mixer services might not just be government honeypots, but rather hacker honeypots. Where hackers gather a bunch of coins that definitely must be cleaner than their ill-gotten fraudulent coins, attracting users under the illusion of "mixing" only to hand out their very tainted coins to regular users in exchange for coins they can easily deposit into exchanges without issues. And after they're done exchanging everything, they can just start using the service for exit scamming to gain even more money.
205  Other / Off-topic / Re: Just another gambling addict story. on: April 06, 2024, 06:44:52 PM
Petty crime and theft over gsmbling is a really problematic situation and we should do everything in our power to help these people understand that what they are doing is not right and give them some standing to get back on their feet. Really what these people need is counseling and group support, but first to understand their mistake and realize the need to work on their own faults.

If people understand their fault as a problem gsmbler things can be fixed slwly, but their family needs to show understanding and flkeep up with such trouble sadly. I don't know what this person will do leaving his city but hopefully his guilt will lead to him fixing his issues.
206  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Is it right to advice other people against gambling for personal reasons like?? on: April 06, 2024, 06:36:31 PM
When my friends talk about gambling I always give them the disclaimers about odds, house edge, gambler's fallacy. Etc. I consider this basic education to not get sucked into it.

Many people go into it not knowing even the basics and end up losing a lot. But really advising someone against gambling literally does no harm. If he wants to pass time or make cash there are better ways to do both. If you go in knowing you can afford some risks as a cheap thrill then ok, but if someone is compulsive better skip gambling all together.
207  Local / Ελληνικά (Greek) / Re: FED & BTC... on: April 06, 2024, 02:12:28 AM
Δεν με ενθουσιάζει το γεγονός ότι μπορώ να πουλήσω τα Bitcoin μου σε αντάλλαγμα για υπόλοιπο καρτών δώρου. Καλύτερα να πάρω μετρητά από ένα ανταλλακτήριο για να μην έχω και υπόλοιπο μετά...

Κακά τα ψέματα παιδιά, αν έχει κάποιος Bitcoin και μετρητά, έχει παραπάνω κίνητρο να ξοδέψει πρώτα τα μετρητά. Και αν σου φτάνουν τα μετρητά, ξοδεύεις μόνο αυτά. Όποιος έχει κάποιο μέσο το οποίο του αποφέρει έσοδα όπως π.χ. ενοίκια ή μερίσματα μετοχών, λέτε να πληρώνει με τις μετοχές όταν πάει να πάρει έναν καφέ ή με τα λεφτά που των πλήρωσαν απλά επειδή τις κρατάει;

Σκεφτείτε αντίστοιχα και το Bitcoin. Το κρατάμε, το θέλουμε να το κρατάμε, και όταν κάνουμε καθημερινά έξοδα δεν το ξοδεύουμε έτσι κι αλλιώς γιατί ελάχιστες επιχειρήσεις τον δέχονται ως μέσο πληρωμής. Και στην πραγματικότητα οι συντριπτική πλειοψηφία όσων το δέχονται το κάνουν μέσω ανταλλαγής ώστε να παίρνουν μετρητά...

Άρα όταν κάποιος λέει πως δεν έχει χρήση στον πραγματικό κόσμο το Bitcoin εν μέρη έχει δίκιο! Κανένας μας δεν θα πλήρωνε έναν καφέ με BTC. Αρχικά το Bitcoin δεν έχει χώρο στο chain να υποστηρίζει τις πληρωμές όλων μας. Ως αποτέλεσμα ήδη με την τωρινή χρήση οι συναλλαγές αποκλείουν να έχει νόημα να πάρεις ένα καφέ με BTC λόγο εξόδων... Είναι πολύ πιο απλό να πληρώσεις με έμβασμα πλέον πιστώνεται άμεσα και είναι ανέξοδο. Και εγώ και ο πωλητής καφέ εμπιστευόμαστε την τράπεζα και άρα δεν μας ανησυχεί να ολοκληρωθεί έτσι η συναλλαγή.

Το ζήτημα είναι άλλο. Ως μέσω αποθήκευσης πλούτου το Bitcoin έχει τις ιδιότητες του χρυσού με πρόσθετα πλεονεκτήμα. Αν θέτεις σωστά τις προσδοκίες σου, είναι εξαιρετικό εργαλείο. Αν λες πως για να είναι χρήσιμο πρέπει να μπορείς να αγοράζεις καφέδες με αυτό, χάνεις το νόημα.

Και επίσης η παράκαμψη τραπεζικών περιορισμών είναι πολύ λογική χρήση σε αντίθεση με το τι λέει ο τύπος στο βίντεο . Αλλά για διάφορους λόγους ισχύει ότι το Bitcoin δεν εξυπηρετεί διάφορους σκοπούς. Ο φτωχός που παίρνει μεροκάματο 50€ τη μέρα δεν έχει πολλά περιθώρια να συναλλάσσεται στο Bitcoin τουλάχιστον όπως είναι σήμερα. Ποιος όμως έχει και λόγο να παρακάμψει το τραπεζικό σύστημα και έχει και πολλά λεφτά; Ε σε αρκετές περιπτώσεις όντως μιλάμε για βαποράκια μικρά και μεγάλα.

Τέλος πάντων, πρέπει να μην αρνούμαστε τα αρνητικά του Bitcoin. Πρέπει να μην ξεχνάμε πως πολλοί είναι μέσα για την σπέκιουλα. Είναι γεγονός ότι η αξία του προέρχεται μόνο από την ζήτηση η οποία αν εξαιρέσουμε την σπέκιουλα προέρχεται από συγκείμενο κοινό: τουλάχιστον μεσέας τάξης επιχειρηματίες που δεν έχουν πρόσβαση στο τραπεζικό σύστημα και πρέπει να κάνουν ηλεκτρονικές συναλλαγές. Ειδάλλως δεν γεννάται πραγματική ανάγκη για χρήση του Bitcoin.

Το θετικό του Bitcoin είναι πως είναι καλό μέσο κατά του πληθωρισμού. Και σε περιπτώσεις τραπεζικής κατάρρευσης εξακολουθεί να λειτουργεί. Βέβαια το αν θα μπορεί να καλύψει τις ανάγκες που κάλυπταν οι τράπεζες είναι πολύ δύσκολο. Αλλά ως απάντηση στο να λέει κάποιος πως δεν κάνει για καφέδες αυτό που πρέπει να λέμε είναι πως δεν έχει σημασία, γιατί ξεπερνάει το δολλάριο σε άλλα θέματα.
208  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Eurovision 2024 bets on: April 05, 2024, 08:49:44 PM
Seems like the tables have turned a bit:


Now Switzerland is first on the odds and Croatia and Italy follow closely.
In my opinion Switzerland surely has an interesting song but is it deserving of the win? Dunno.
I think Switzerland is in a bit of a tough spot because there's little to no regional alliance that will give them many max point votes. Like who do you have in mind giving Switzerland 12 point votes?
Germany? Austria? I'm sure not France because while there's a French speaking part but from what I'm aware most French people dislike them quite a bit.

Sad a song contest works like this but what can you do. Grin

Speaking of actual songs though and not politics, Switzerland's song maybe was the last to be announced officially? Good strategy maybe as they're now first on the odds. The song has a breakdown which to me is a big lackluster for all the buildup, but the vocals lyrics and composition are very good and the ones that wrote the song must also be very talented as is the singer. I'm sure he could see some success even outside of eurovision, unlike many one shot artists in it Cheesy
209  Other / Off-topic / Re: Gambling problems on different races on: April 05, 2024, 08:31:21 PM
You're approaching the issue wrong in my opinion. It's not so much about race. If you think of more affluent African nations where people of African decent can be rich, do you see them being gambling addicts and having widespread problems?

No. Wanna know why? Because it's not about race. It's about class. People of low to mid income have little to no of their needs met. Yes, maybe they won't starve, but they still spend their time working only to remain poor with no prospects. Of course living in a society where rich people can prosper, buying their children university degrees, sending them to work abroad in desk jobs etc. guaranteeing them a rich future because of their wealth, the lower class people can see that perpetuation of wealth remaining in the hands of the wealthy and be extremely jealous. Gambling can be seen as a selfish way to break the cycle. But in reality it'll more likely bring ruin than long term prosperity even on the individual level.

Because if we look at what's happening in Nigeria now, even with licensed casinos. A few politicians and a few rich families are becoming even richer. Companies established abroad have found yet another way to siphon money out of the African country. If a government truly caring for its people was in power, they would ban gambling casinos since they're causing such a large addiction epidemic.
210  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Understanding the Legality and Myth of Card Counting in Blackjack on: April 05, 2024, 08:24:48 PM
Card counting is possible to do anywhere, but certain casino rules might make it extremely hard to have profit while doing it.
And then there's also the so called risk of ruin aka risk of losing all your deposits, which is always there. Even the most favorable casino rules will not let you get great chances at winning without risk. There's always at least a 1% chance of you losing everything. But with the casino rules on sites that feature live gambling dealers, the risk of ruin is much higher and you'll be earning much less even with the higher risk. Card counting is most effective when the shoe is about to end. And for live gambling host companies like Evolution, their rules are that the shoe changes when it's half way! So it's very hard to count cards because it's very rarely that you'll be close to a shoe finishing. Only if a dealer splits closer to the end in spit of them being instructed to split close to the middle and even then, it can take ages because many people sit on a table.

I watched a pretty good video on someone trying to card count online:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjiVpO1hlvk

It's also pretty entertaining so you'll have no problems watching it, but if you want the long story short here it is:
Basically it's possible to count cards even online on live gambling. But it's not that worth it because of high risk and low reward.
211  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Have you consider yourself, the family and gambling? on: April 05, 2024, 08:19:47 PM
I would like to think that I would never gamble in front of my kids.

Of course there are certain traditions that might make it permissible. For example before new year's even in Greece they say it brings good luck to do certain sinful things like play gambling card games, swear and make sexual jokes and satire. But that's only 2 hours out of a whole year or something.

So if someone has a family, it's too much of an influence to be doing something in front of your kids constantly and if we're talking about gambling, better avoid it altogether. Children need not familiarize themselves with gambling especially through their parents. If they do so on their own accord, a parent can teach them about the bad things in gambling so they are more aware, as well of the statistical impossibility to win all the time in spite of what gambling promotion might have new gamblers believing.
212  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Greek 2023–24 Super League Predictions & Discussion on: April 05, 2024, 08:14:23 PM
Congrats @Ultegra134 for the predictions  Cool Cool



Looking at the above matches, I think the AEK/PAOK derby is going to be the most entertaining and important one. Both teams are running for the first spot and are head to head for it.

I see something weird here, PAOK's odds to win are so skewed?

I think it's worth to put a bit of money towards a PAOK win with these odds. They're first in the rankings so far and have been performing well lately at least in general.

But for a more secure bet, the money is on betting against Lamia for a Olympiacos win here:


GOOD LUCK!  Cool
213  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! on: April 03, 2024, 10:49:45 PM
I haven’t seen this on the Stake site. Where are you clicking to get these types of betting options? I guess I need to go search around the site more because I didn’t know there was a political section. I wouldn’t mind tossing some money on old Trump to save us from the woke mind virus if I’m able to.
Yeah it's kinda weird, the U.S. election only has a single market for the outright winner and it's put in the same category as politics and entertainment. In that same page also you can find Eurovision.
I did put a direct link in the OP. But if you're US based then you need stake.us.

I wish there were more markets for politics. For example to see how third party candidates will rank etc.
214  Other / Off-topic / Re: Gambling addiction is not about the money you could win; it's about the "win" it on: April 03, 2024, 10:27:06 PM
For most people addicted to gambling, it's actually about the money. Because most people aren't rich, the vast majority of people that spend too much for their needs in gambling are the ones thinking they might catch a lucky break from their misery through gambling as an activity.

So yes, the money does play a role in most people's gambling habit, especially if they are a problem gambler. Because the rich and especially those that have money generating assets, don't need to be a so called "problem gambler" because they can replenish their wealth and continue living a comfortable life pretty easily. It's mostly the poor that are judged as problem gamblers because for them they spend too much and then they can't afford food let's say.
215  Other / Off-topic / Re: Gambling kills the fun in these two cases on: April 03, 2024, 10:21:50 PM
For real betting all of your money in any form of gambling is insane to consider. It can have life ruining impacts and I don't know how people could end up to this point anyway. Really there's a bad end to addiction and it's sad to realize that many more people are falling into such traps. Gambling is a centuries old past-time but now where we live in an advanced society it's come to affect people in ways we hadn't thought before.

Well to think about it this way though, the problem is deeper than human nature and how humans think as well. It's something that can actually change. If our society wasn't based around money so much then people wouldn't value gambling for a form of profit but rather as just a form to pass time.
216  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] eXch.cx - Automatic Exchange | Sig Campaign | Up to $120/W on: April 03, 2024, 10:16:09 PM
Username: alani123
BTC Segwit: bc1q54u6us9hj79wf3hldxqk9hekzjmksuc26fwcev
217  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets! on: April 02, 2024, 09:28:23 PM
Also, how can everyone explain why Trump is presently listed as the favorite by the sportsbooks?
One major reason is that RF Kennedy running as independent steals many votes from Biden according to the polls. So there's once again going to be fierce competition in swing states for each candidate to grab electors.
And there's also many working class left-wing voters that feel as if Biden has completely failed them and their families with his promises.
Biden underdelivered on promises of healthcare and student loans which was a huge disappointment to many left wing Americans especially after the Biden campaign had shot Berlie's presidential bid on the foot.
And then there's also issues that are important for many people. For instance Biden underdelivered on environmental issues.
And also Biden grossly underdelivered on humanitarian issues where he continued to allow and promote a genocide to take place in Gaza... This especially has angered people so much that people heckle Biden about it everywhere he goes, in all of his rallies.

So really while Trump got overwhelming support from his Party's members, Biden seems to be losing people from his traditionally left-wing base all around, which is never a good sign. Many people will be voting third party or not be turning up to vote at all. So this is a situation that favors Trump who still maintains a strong base.
218  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Claw Machines: a category of gambling? on: April 02, 2024, 09:21:31 PM
Claw machines is the first form of gambling most of us were exposed to funnily enough.
It can very much be defined as gambling because really it's a game based on chance and the chances are fixed against you by the machine's computer. The machine has to always earn more than what the rewards inside it cost otherwise it's a pointless thing to host for any venue.

In my country there used to be many claw machines that had extravagant rewards like banknotes and even on some occasions gold coins. There was a crackdown in these as the law permitted police to seize them as unlicensed gambling machines. Really the same could be said for claw machines where the price is plushies, but at least it's not as obvious. I think persons under 15 should only be allowed there with adult supervision because otherwise the addictive nature of these machines can also get to them whereas there should be some limits.
219  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Greek 2023–24 Super League Predictions & Discussion on: April 02, 2024, 09:17:30 PM
I'm having a hard time picking winners with good odds in the upcoming matchday  Tongue

But I think making bets on goals score would suffice. I rarely recommend betting on the match days most popular match, but I think this time it's ok to place a bet on there being over 1.5 goals scored in the Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens match. These teams are in fierce competition and Panathinaikos is really counting on as many wins as possible in the playoffs to proceed with advancing in european tournaments.



I think it'll be a really competitive match which will result in many goals. Don't ask me who might win though  Cheesy
220  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Local/Traditional Gambling Spots on: April 01, 2024, 05:56:07 PM
The thought to visit an old gambling spot crosses my mind constantly to be honest. Maybe mostly old folk gather there, but they are of the fun variety. They are hardcore on their card games but also experience a lot of people things through gambling
 
There is discussions about pretty much anything. From learning your town's chit chat and all the spicy news, to politics and serious maters of all kinds. But the very good thing is that drinks ther are super cheap.  Grin Grin
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