Nice little wall at 350-450 has formed. This might give us another 1-4 weeks before 400 is broken, and maybe even a bulltrap to 550 or so where the next shorting opportunity will be.

Some people get themselves so deep in a particular position that they can't switch and don't have an exit strategy.

When I post here, I am not doing so out of talking my book. This is not only due to my integrity, but because I don't believe that my words here can have any impact on the market at all. I was not aware that... the whole bitcoin investment community was here on this subforum. I thought bitcoin, a 6 billion dollar market, was bigger than that now. I was under the impression that much bigger forces were at play and I would hope that the serious investors either aren't here in the speculation subforum of bitcointalk or that are not the type of people to base their decisions on the opinions of traders on a web forum. So, when I make a post here, be it bullish or bearish, it is not because of my position. When I make a post, it is because I have a serious academic or economic concern to discuss (or sometimes I'm making a joke), or some TA based on charts.

I will also argue against any statement I think is false or stupid - I hate misinformation, manipulation, and stupidity and will argue against it, whether it is bullish or bearish. I even argue against my own position sometimes. I have always been making bearish posts. Even when I was max leveraged long during November I was in here starting discussions about aspects of bitcoin I thought were bearish and how ridiculous I thought some people's projections were. It didn't matter because I didn't believe that I could affect the market. So anyway stop asking about my position everytime I make a post. You also sound ridiculous when you ask about that rather than discussing the actual topic.

New tradingview chart called "bearcoins are back".

Bearcoins.

LOL

Hey how do you know I'm being pessimistic? I couldv'e been one of the guys who voted for option 1 

Most of us know that the majority of the bitcoin price (if not 90%) is caused be speculators, traders, and hoarders. What would be the actual price of bitcoin if exingent circumstances caused all these players to be removed? What is the price of bitcoin based on it's underlying economy? I understand that there is this 'trendline', but alas, the trendline itself is composed to speculative prices. If you would like, support you answer with mathetmatical figures regarding underlying businesses, the velocity of money, etc.

"cheap coins" - another cultist term

It's not simply that it's taxed. We already assumed it was taxed. The issue now is the level of detail in reporting required.

There is another crash due to this divergence from the typical 9 month trend. Prices have failed to have a sustained recovery above the blue line following 'final capitulation', and instead have trended back underneath the orange line. This behavior was not seen in any other 9 month cycle, and the last time a 1 week downcross was imminent was in 2011. Most of the buyers in late february were just people front-running this cycle and now they are selling because they realize the cycle is not coming to fruition as planned. When the 1 week ema downcross happens, it will bring a whole new level of selling and a new bear market of which the likes have not been seen in any recent cycles. There will be a complete deflation of the bubble and return to a mean economic supported price. I'm not saying the drop will be as low percentage wise, but the timeline will probably be long.

This might not happen if we have a rapid recovery right now to get out of this territory and stay out of it, so the bulls need to get to work.

But it would be neat if you could look at the Bitstamp tape/chart from yesterday during the drop, find one of the large buys, and say 'oh that was SecondMarket'.

Is there going to be a bear joke or a train every time 1,000 coins are bought? Because this could end up happening hundreds of times during a prolonged downtrend...

Another thing - When the average person uses their Mastercard, they are paying with credit, using borrowed money. Bitcoin does not facilitate any kind of debt or lending, which supporters will say is an advantage, but the average person wont understand this. The average person is a debt-slave and does not actually have cash on hand to put into something like bitcoin. I keep hearing the argument that more and more usd is printed which means that that USD should flow into bitcoin and raise the price. The problem is, that this USD does not go into the hands of the average person - it ends up only in the hands of wealthy elites! The average person simply gets poorer and poorer (relatively) and starved out due to inflation. Look at the minimum wage and the annual salaries for workers since the nation started ballooning its debt. How much have they increased?

yup average person is in love with fiat and sees banks and mastercard as far superior store of value and payment system. only technocrats and libertarians see the advantage of bitcoin, which is a minority of people -not mainstream.

My questions on this forum have nothing to do with my trading and are mostly all well thought out with academic/economic concerns that I am actually curious about.

Supporters are nice. But does a "supporter" have to be someone who makes ridiculous posts that defy logic and deny facts? Does 'supporting' even have to be about pumping the price? I think of it more like it would involve fostering adoption.


If the next ATH was only $1500, that would be very bearish.

Really? It was people saying "to da moon" and "fud" that we're rescuing bitcoin? Or was it people who were spreading bitcoin adoption, developing services, adopting merchants, and writing code? Those are two separate things. One particular person might happen to play both roles, but they are still separate roles, and I'm only referring to one of those roles as a 'cultist'.

What good is it if all the bitcoins are hoarded by big invetors and trusts like SecondMarket? The price may rise higher but the liquidity for merchants and transactions will still remain low, at the same level as it would have been without the hoarding. Look at the orderbook on emptystamp - it is representative of a new age where all the coins are hoarded away and the price is high yet the volume is low and every little buy or sell causes a dramatic movement in the price - no liquidity.

Hmm... my post is simply that I hope we see a short period of a few days of stability (I have events to attend to) before the next downwave. I believe there will be another downwave because 52,444BTC on stamp is not enough volume to be a bottom for very long. I didn't say to where though. Probably to 400. Is that retardedly bearish?

There has to be a counterbalance to all the cultish posts of the always-bullish people who think that prices are always going straight to the moon tomorrow regardless of any and all TA and that every unfavorable event is always made up.

I was saying... "choo choo all aboard the train. look we're having a nice retracement and 1000 coins were just bought/covered (while following huobi) so obviously this means all downtrends are broken and we're going to da moon".