when you want to come up with an analysis you can't just sweep things that aren't to your liking under the rug and simply ignore them. it is like saying bitcoin is in a downtrend in 2017 and ignore the obvious rise!!!

in this case nothing about Tether supply or its creation has changed over the past couple of years. specifically in 2017 AND 2018 but these two years are exact opposite of each other and none of those shitty articles that you have read about Tether ever mention this because they want to sweep it under the rug!
so unless you can find any logical reason why all these theories they keep publishing for 2017 and 2019 did NOT work in 2018, i am calling bullshit on all of them.

the fact is, Tether doesn't even affect bitcoin price and majority of bitcoin traders are trading bitcoin with fiat and only use Tether in their ALTCOIN trading on ALTCOIN exchanges since most of the bitcoin exchanges don't even have Tether!!!

actually things aren't as bad as you think they are. it is right that the market has a certain unpredictability attribute and there are times when we are surprised to see a certain move that we couldn't expect. but the big picture has always been crystal clear about bitcoin.
in fact that is why most of those who predict bitcoin price always do it in the long term like saying it will reach X in 2020 instead of saying it will reach X next week.

i didn't say you moved bitcoin-cash. that was just an example of a very common case where people receive an altcoin thinking it is bitcoin and try sending it to a "bitcoin wallet they later create" and that is the time they get confused why their coins aren't getting to their destination.

in any case, if it was actually bitcoin you received, can you share with us the 2 transaction IDs: the one you that received coins and the one that you sent to your other wallet.

the only difference between ICO and IEO is in the order things happen.
in an ICO they first create the shitty token and scam people with it and then attempt at getting it listed on an exchange by paying them so that they could dump it and get the money they scammed out.
but in an IEO they first pay the exchange to list the shitty token then create it and scam people with it while it is being advertised by the exchange. and then they dump it easily and faster since it is already listed on the exchange.

that's the thing with bitcoin and long term. because of its potential and usefulness it will continue rising like this. sometimes you just have to blink in order to miss the chances to buy it at a discount.
besides why are you going so far back as 5 years! why not just 5 months? the funny thing is that 5 months ago you could have bought 1 whole bitcoin with only about 1/4 the current price. in a couple of months from now the same thing will be repeated...

if most people used these "last chances" to "buy the dips" then we would have never seen all those big FOMO buys where they panic and start pouring their money in after the price had gone up a lot.

well you were all saying the same thing when price was in the $3k range. everywhere you looked some yellow website was predicting $1000 with their wedges and all the lines they drew on the charts

i haven't yet heard of any good reason why people keep repeating this!
just because a lot of youngsters are wasting their time on their social media it doesn't mean they are also going to use their payment processor services called Libra too.

it is possible that they do it intentionally to wake some people up and cause FOMO every now and then (possibly somewhere around 6 months mark) these price reporting websites hit a bug or something like that and go crazy like this.
at least this time it seemed like it wasn't their fault as cloudflare screwed the entire internet!

the only thing that this topic and the links show is yet another proof that news sites are moving with the wind, in whichever direction it is blowing. i have not seen any actual analysis and speculation on any of these sites for many years now. they just publish crap about where price is going with the addition of exaggeration. the quotes are there to make the article look good.

first make sure that what you have is actually "bitcoin" and not something else that someone sold you in the name of bitcoin but in fact were a shitcoin with the word "bitcoin" in its name.
for example they have been selling "bitcoin cash" which is a shitcoin as bitcoin to a lot of newbies for 2 years now.
in your case it seems like you have bought a token that had the name  "bitcoin" in it which is why you don't see your balance anywhere else.

my example wasn't meant to explain different possible scenarios. and you shouldn't take the numbers literary. my point was that to show that you can not predict the price based on the  cost of mining because the cost changes with price not the other way around.
maybe it was better to tell that example this way:
if price were $100 and cost of mining were $100 and bitcoin price fell down to $10, the cost wouldn't stay up at $100, it will also drop and it certainly can't keep the price up. alternatively if cost were $100 and price went to $1000 the cost will also rise after the price and can not keep it down.

it very much depends on the newbie! you can't give the same answer to everyone.
for instance to most newbies that i meet in real life i usually focus on telling them not to fall for the "buzzword" that is blockchain and has been used to hide the fact that they were scamming them. so i guess my "short way to explain" blockchain would be to not fall for the hype, and just because someone is talking about it that doesn't mean what they are selling you is any good.

in other words Uganda just did what 90% of other countries have done at least 5 or 6 years ago and deemed cryptocurrencies risky and even issued warnings about them. that is not news! specially when it is coming from a bank which they are always going to be threatened by bitcoin because it is decentralized and out of their control.

true but we can't compare the two together. when Tether tanked and bitcoin value against it went up, nobody cared. the real "value" of bitcoin remained the same so it went up against USDT to keep the value same as before.

but if USD tanks the same thing will happen but also since it is a serious matter people will want to run away to assets that provide then security and aren't controlled by the same government that caused the crash. bitcoin becomes a shinning option which means there will be a lot of demand overnight shooting the price to the moon.

it has already decreased. if you check the history, years ago like in 2010-2013, it was very easy to manipulate the market and that meant a high volatility. for instance bitcoin history has a big bubble in 2013 where price went up about 500% in one month and reached $1200 later we found out Mt Gox (the dominant exchange of that time having 85% of the volume) manipulated the price.

today however we can no longer see such things and no exchange has any more than 10% of the volume and in most cases they only have 2%.
the wild swings have also decreased and all of it suggests growth in the market, less manipulation and harder or reduced volatility.

it is reasonable to assume this trend is going to continue as bitcoin market grows in size.

being volatile is not the problem and it can not be considered a "risk" in my opinion. take a look at bitcoin ,it has been volatile for all its life but it still is a very good currency and/or investment. the reason is because volatility is the product of having a small market on exchanges.

the problem is when volatility is not because of smallness of the market but it is because of manipulation. for example no matter how much money goes into altcoins they will remain highly risky because their volatility is product of pure manipulation which people call pump and dump.

but this is not the first time the "dominance" change happens. practically every time in the past that bitcoin started reversing out of its bubble burst bear market, its so called dominance grew because people saw the bitcoin rise and dumped altcoins immediately.

the only difference now is that because of the 2017 large number of shitcoins and ICOs that percentage changed a lot more compared to the past so it became noticeable. otherwise the trend is exactly the same.

you can't just post a completely random bitcoin address and talk about Satoshi without even providing 1 line of information about WHY the hell you think it is related to Satoshi!

there are tons of addresses similar to this one that have been active in early days and belong to other people.
the silliest part is that the address was first seen on 12/2010 which is 2 years after creation of bitcoin! and by that time bitcoin was being traded and price was already $0.25-$0.5

you have already answered your own question!

there can be a new coin some day that takes bitcoin's place but so far we have seen thousands of new coins and none of them were even good let alone want to come close to bitcoin to take its place

i don't see why not. there are still lots of new investors coming in bitcoin every day who will then be exposed to bombardment of advertisement of different altcoins promising them "better" coins and "better" profit. with the pumps, a lot of  them will be attracted over there.
we have also see some signs of the same pumps this year as pumpers started pumping a lot of different altcoins each 200% to 500% before bitcoin started rising fast.