I just bet on black and won 5 times in a row. That means it will happen a 6th time for sure.
This never makes any sense though, Bitcoin price going up or down is not a 50-50 bet. You would wager that with increased adoption and services, as well as infrastructure and vc investment your odds are way better than 50-50. Not a gurantee but more likely than not, no?
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They are not that stupid to dump 200k BTC. They will be selling them slow, maybe 5k per day, so don't worry too much on price effect of dumping. Another effect is higher supply of BTC, which can lead to lower price yes, another thing is higher trust in BTC since something happened around Mt.Gox, which in the end is getting price to rise. So net effect is hardly predictible, but it may even cause higher price.
A few things; They will not be selling them like that, its not how liquidations of assets go. However if they were to sell them on exchange it would definately have an effect on price, the volume on some days recently has been less than 5k! Also Can you clarify exactly what "another thing is higher trust in BTC since something happened around Mt.Gox" means.
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That's making the assumption that the people selling are willing to take any price for their btc no?
Do you mean the liquidators when you say people selling or are you refering to the creditors? If you are referring to the liquidators they don't really care how much they get, just whats quickest and easiest. If you are refering to the creditors (gox coin holders) then they don't really have a say.
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So then it is confirmed that Gox' coins will be liquidated and no BTC balances returned to the users.
The published document doesn't say anything like that. It says instead quite the contrary: an audit of company assets will be conducted, proof of claims will be filed by creditors and found company assets will be used to (at least partly) repay them. Nobody will probably get back everything he/she owns unless stolen/hidden money is found, but anything available will be refunded. Why are you saying no balance will be returned to users? Please read what I actually wrote; "no BTC balances returned to the users.". The BTC will be converted to cash. Q. What is expected to happen under the bankruptcy proceedings? A. The bankruptcy trustee will implement the bankruptcy proceedings, in which the assets of the bankrupt entity will be managed and converted into cash, the investigation of the claims, etc. will be conducted, and if funds for a distribution are secured, the liquidating distribution will be made.
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They wont be dumped on Stamp for fiat....
No? Again Quote: Q. What is expected to happen under the bankruptcy proceedings? A. The bankruptcy trustee will implement the bankruptcy proceedings, in which the assets of the bankrupt entity will be managed and converted into cash, the investigation of the claims, etc. will be conducted, and if funds for a distribution are secured, the liquidating distribution will be made. https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140424_announce_qa_en.pdfAgain Please point me to the part that says it will be dumped all at once for fiat on Stamp. It says converted to cash there a slew of ways to do that and none of them will involve a market sell on Stamp.
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Actually I think it's safe to assume that not every mtgox trader will be using all (or any) of his refunds to buy back into btc somewhere. Therefore the net effect will be negative.
I was being sarcastic in regards moreso as to how poeple could think that.
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When 200K bitcoins will be dumped on bitstamp for fiat, with the current order book the price will indeed be zero: They wont be dumped on Stamp for fiat....
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Why would the mtgox news cause a price increase? It's basically the worst possible outcome - mtgox isn't coming back and 200,000 coins are being liquidated into cash.
Check out the thread I started in Bitcoin Discussion, apparently it should have no effect at all and in fact should cause an increase in price due to people receiving their compensation and buying BTC with it...
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Why would this effect the price of BTC? Isn't the damage done already?
Yeah I can't see why this would have any effect at all. Might have the opposite if the people who lost money cut their loses and decided to buy back in while it's still fairly cheap. You cant see why the increase in the supply by 200k coins would casue downward pressure on the market? In the end people will get pennies on the dollar, of those people which is more likely; They say F bitcoin I'm keeping my 10% or I know lets go and put the money I received back into what made me lose it in the first place? By what standards is BTC cheap at the moment when early adopters who bought coins for next to nothing or mined them probably held the majority of the coins on the exchange?
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Why would this effect the price of BTC? Isn't the damage done already?
Well if 200K of bitcoins will be liquided, than you can expect some pressure Quote: Q. What is expected to happen under the bankruptcy proceedings? A. The bankruptcy trustee will implement the bankruptcy proceedings, in which the assets of the bankrupt entity will be managed and converted into cash, the investigation of the claims, etc. will be conducted, and if funds for a distribution are secured, the liquidating distribution will be made. https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140424_announce_qa_en.pdfWouldn't it make more sense to give the bitcoin they have to those filing claims? Dang it! Every single time I buy bitcoin the price drops again! I think I should stop buying just to help the market!!! Yep but with Fiat debts to pay it probably gets very confusing. Also do you think its likely that a Japanese liquidator is seriously going to start sending out BTC? Most people dont even understand it let alone start using it in a legal process.
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Huobi responding to the news in typical whatever you wouldnt think the market would do it does fashion.
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Yep and be prepared for at least some of those to hit the market. You cant seriously think that off exchange investors are all going to just hold the coins when they get sold below market rate.
Simple solution:Sell above market rate. Like right now for $600. So, then whats in it for the buyer? A killer deal! No slippage. Try buying 200k coins right now without going over $600 per coin. Impossible! Thats the solution in principle but can you see that happening? The person running the bankruptcy process has a lot more to do than just liquidate the coins, all they care about is whats easiest I doubt they are about to start trying to sell above market rate, they dont care how much they go for in the end they just need to follow the process.
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Why would this effect the price of BTC? Isn't the damage done already?
Because 200k coins that were not available and part of supply are going to be sold and thus become part of the supply. We can expect that there will be buyers who will hold onto their coins but the fact is that these will likely be sold below market rate and so some people will sell them for easy profit. An increase in supply means the demand has to rise as well otherwise the price drops, simple economics.
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So gox announces the liquidation of 200k coins and the market starts buying lol
If you were a gox coin holder now you would want the price as high as possible so that when the coins are sold theres more cash to go around...
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I expect the bottom to be at around $200
I personally expect the price to drop to around wherever the coins are bought for, the people buying them are not going to sell them at a loss so I cant imagine going lower than whatever the cost price ends up being.
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So then it is confirmed that the moon is made out of cheese.
What effect will this have on cow psychology?
Im opening a serious discussion Im not sure why your trying to mock it...
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Yep and be prepared for at least some of those to hit the market. You cant seriously think that off exchange investors are all going to just hold the coins when they get sold below market rate.
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I just thinking to buy more machines. If that graph really goes down and with more difficulty, did calculate in bitcoinwisdom, its never ROI. 1 TH with price almost 3500 USD (include shipment and tax). How the hell people still buy more machines ?
The price going down is not a guranteee! That was just Teras prediction.
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