Do you see any recent drops? I sure don't. As a matter of fact hash rate is at all time high.
Please explain how (even if the news is true) Kazakhstan cutting power to some small miner (because 50k USD bitcoin mine is small) has caused the price to drop.
How would that play out technically, enlighten me.

From the article:

Big deal... My neighbor was building a house and filed all the paperwork. That was a year ago and he's still running an extension cord from one of the neighboring houses to his new house because the company did not have the time to run a cable, and we're in the EU. I assume that in Kazakhstan you need to pass money under the table to get expedite things.

All up to date, thank you!

I'd say WAS one of the most accurate models, until the last few months happened. For instance in 2020 when bitcoin crashed to 30k the model variance was only 0.3, but last summer it was 0.9, like in the lows of the 2018 bear market.
I wouldn't count it out though. There's a chance we're in 2013 again with last year being only the first phase of the bull market, in which case S2F is on track. We'll know in a year.

I haven't seen anyone killed by Covid19, does that mean it doesn't kill?

Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation is at all time high. Maybe not all stocks are linked to BTC, but tech stocks are for sure. BTC had it bounce back while indexes fell 2 days back, but that's because it had corrected much more and came close to the point of mining cost. It's not easy to make bitcoin run below the cost of mining. It happened before, but we always had fast bounces above when miners refused to sell at a loss.


And their headlines are hilarious.
"Bitcoin bloodbath, get ready for maximum pain" "bear market confirmed, it's over for bitcoin" and the same people 2 months later were saying to buy bitcoin for 60k and not miss out on the opportunity of a lifetime
I'm disappointed by most youtube channels. They claim to know what's going on, claim to be crypto enthusiasts, yet every time the price moves they amplify the market sentiment by running around like headless chickens.

Actually, in 2 years we'll be very close to another halving and this usually works wonders for Bitcoin. The negativity rarely drags on for more than 6 months. Just wait until 1h chart moves forward so much that the November/December drops won't fit on people's screens and they'll act like it was never there

I feel like this thread isn't getting enough attention not because it's bad in any way, but because of how bearish and disappointed people are. I can bet many have read it and thought "1 million per coin? yea right... I'm out of here".

I've seen these points brought up in the past, with the oldest one being that if Bitcoin sees at least 1% of global use it's going to be worth a million dollars, and that's true. If it became natural for people to have 1% of their investment portfolios in bitcoin, or even all the pension funds were to put 1% into bitcoin, we'd immediately experience a supply shortage that would turn into skyrocketing prices. I've seen what a single buy order of 1000 BTC can do to a price on exchanges. Imagine a number of such orders in a short time.

Bitcoin has a potential to go 100x, unlike any other investment, therefore it's just stupid not to have some. People buy lotery tickets that give them a chance to win that's lower than 1 in a million instead of buying bitcoin that gives a fair chance. If I were to estimate, there's over 90% chance that some day in the next 2 years BTC will be worth 2x more than it is now and at least 50% that it will go over 100k.

I'd just like to add for people who rely on the RSI that it's a strength index. This means that a company that is going bankrupt will have low RSI, showing that it's oversold, but the process is going to continue until the stock disappears from exchanges and is no longer traded. In other words, a dying asset will also be oversold.

I'm not trying to discourage you, simply playing a devil's advocate, but don't forget that indexes and indicators are not going to tell you what to do. The fact that Bitcoin has never done this or that doesn't mean it won't.

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Good job OP. I wouldn't be able to hold for that long without at least taking some profit.

I'm a holder since 2015, but I feel that celebrating each ATH with some spending is the way to feel even better about it. Each time BTC reaches a significant level for the first time like $10k, $20k, $30k, I turn some of my holdings into a physical object and this makes me feel good even when the price falls. That said, I  know that I will never be completely out. If we go to 100k net year I'll just sell another 10% of my portfolio and keep holding the rest. I'd like my daughter to get BTC when she's old enough to understand it.

First of all if I were Bukele I'd take this as an insult. Some organization that doesn't have anything to do with my country says it wants to protect them. Do these people think I'm not able to take care of my people? Do they think I'm putting them at risk and they can do better? They were never interested in helping my country before and now they dare to criticize me?

IMF is actually putting the people at risk by extorting them. Imagine someone you rent your house from says "I want to protect you so I want my house back tomorrow". If you want to extort me at least don't act like you're doing it for my own good.

If you count from the bull market lows, every consecutive cycle was longer.
In the model above, if you count from the halving, the first cycle doesn't follow the pattern, you can clearly see that it was much shorter than the second one. There's completely no reason to estimate that if the first bottom was -75% and the second -70 the next one will be again lower by 5% it's a very far fetched prediction, pretty much like throwing the dice twice and scoring 6 on the first throw, 5 on the second, and putting the next bet on 4, because it's beginning to look like a pattern.

While I agree that counting bars from the day of halving can give you some idea of what might happen next, expecting every correction to be at -5%, just because it happened once is completely random.

You want it - you got it.


I'm pretty sure we need more time to break 40k, but with Bitcoin anything is possible. S&P 500 got a little bounce yesterday but is still much lower than it was 5 days ago. Nasdaq again lower today than it was on the 20th... This Bitcoin move is fueled purely by Bitcoin itself. It can be amplified or quashed by the stocks in the coming weeks. 

Talking bout RSI, anything below 30 is the oversold territory that suggests exhaustion of sellers and the end of a correction. It doesn't say when it will happen because low RSI can drag on for weeks, but it also doesn't have to mean lower lows from this point.
We were at 24 a few days ago, so even if this is a trap and I'm pretty sure traders will try to short at 40k and we'll keep bouncing up and down, the 30k level is a strong support. Chances of going down below it right now are low.

The most probable scenario is a channel between 30 and 40k with falling volume that will eventually lead to a breakout. It will either end with a last capitulation to the downside (maybe 25k?) and then a strong bounce back to 30k, or a breakout to the 40-50k channel and another period of sideways trading there. 30k feels a lot like 2018 6k support that we eventually broke to the downside.

It's not the only pattern that changed. Before 2021 the bull runs took us at least 10x up, ended with an overheated top and were followed by a huge correction (50% in a few days) and a dead cat bounce.
This time there was just a 3x increase in price, a slow correction to 50%, another top, followed up by another 50% correction, but both times no dead cat bounce. IMO we can't rely on the previous bull markets anymore because each of them were different and each consecutive one had more institutional investors compared to the retail.


16k? how did you come up with this number? It makes no sense because the bull run did not start at 16 and this level was never an important resistance. 16k was never a top nor a bottom of any correction. Also, there's bitcoin's 200 week MA, which has served as the indicator of the lowest point in bear markets for the last 10 years and it's currently at 19k. On top of that there's mining profitability
level that currently at 30k, which is why this level is holding as a resistance. Miner capitulation is possible of course, but I don't think it's possible to go 50% below the profitability level. For this reason I feel like you took a random number without too much thinking.

That's exactly the part eco terrorists want you to forget. The narrative is that if you mine bitcoin you hurt the environment and it can be divided into two main arguments:
1. The life of a miner is usually 2 years and then it gets thrown away.
2. Mining hurts the environment and uses too much energy.

In reality, most mining farms currently use old miners because they're still making profit. Most mining in the world is done on older antminers made before 2019, so the life of a miner is much longer than 2 years. What does it mean "too much?" Particle accelerators used a lot of energy and costed a lot of money. Global arms market costs a lot of money and most tanks ships and fighter jets are thrown away without ever seeing battle.

It's funny but I have some friends who are as typical when it comes to "crowd mentality" as it gets. One of them always messages me when bitcoin goes up a lot and asks if this is the right time to buy, but when it goes down he never wants to talk about it and says that this time it will be over for bitcoin. The other one always waits until the last moment. He needs a few months to finally produce enough confidence to buy, but then it's usually late. When it keeps falling he does the same. Fear slowly builds up for months and months and finally when he's down 70% he sells.

They both witnessed the 2017 and 2021 bull markets and never made serious money.

I also know another "typical guy" who keeps telling me that bitcoin is too expensive for him and always invests in the most shitty altcoins out there. He's like a compass for what not to touch.

It's interesting that people always go after the easiest and the most obvious pattern: I put 1 dollar in the slot machine and got 2, therefore if I put 100 I will get 200. This is the shit most people believe in and it works both ways: I bought Bitcoin and it went down, therefore if I buy again it will go down again and I lose money, so I better not.

I guess that's why priest are wiser than that. They don't allow Satan to brainwash them like he did Eve and live in celibacy. Oh, wait...
Does it make you feel better after sex when you tell yourself that your flesh is weak because of what happened in the Olive Garden?

Good speech by Johnson, but it's like talking to your own hand. In Russia people were always the cheapest and most expendable resource. The Soviets knew many sons and husbands would not be returning home from Afghanistan, but that did not stop them from waging that stupid, pointless war.

A nice example of Russian mentality is the Warsaw Pact war plan, which is a plan of invasion of Europe developed in the 60s. In short, they were planning to use nuclear weapons on the whole continent and immediately send in soldiers equipped with basic gear like gas masks and special coats. The idea was to send Hungarians, Romanians, Poles first, the moment the nukes hit, and make sure they are pumped full of anti radiation pills, well fed and told the gear will keep them safe, to make them feel good for a few days and keep fighting. Expendables first. It's not the only time the Russians acted in this manner. The Ukrainians did the same in Chernobyl when they delayed the evacuation of Pripyat and did not inform the world that there's a cloud of radiation going West.

This is exactly their goal. They are trying to recreate Soviet Union by increasing their influence over Central Europe and weakening their Western neighbors. They're building Nord Stream for that exact purpose. Before Nord Stream they only had "yamal", which they used to transfer gas to Germany through Poland, but that did not allow them to cut supplies to Poland without doing the same to Germany. Now they can do it and they are doing it. Last time I checked Poland was forced to get their gas straight from Katar because Russia upped the prices on them so much that it was cheaper to send ships to another continent.

Do you know how you can recognize a country scared of, or already involved in an armed conflict? By conscription. Countries who still have it must have a need for it, because statistics have shown that conscripted armies are not as well equipped, trained, and more expensive than volunteers. Most countries no longer have a need for conscription, but it still exists in North and South Korea, Israel... and Ukraine (which even requires women to register), Lithuania, Belarus and of course in Russia. Eastern Europe is like a big pot that's about to boil over.

According to the logarithmic regression band that some traders use to calculate future highs and lows the average price of Bitcoin right now is ~32k USD The lows of the band are at 19k.
Historically the lows of this band were always the lowest point to which Bitcoin was falling in a prolonged bear market and it often returned to and above the middle range.

I remember reading a thread some time last year where people were asking if Bitcoin will ever fall below 50k. Funny how in a bull market people tend to be unreasonable in one way and in bear the other.


Thanks. Good luck with your investments.


Selling in a downtrend isn't that bad as long as you do it early on. Unfortunately people tend to hold it off and every subsequent drop is like torture to them. When you put money on the line you need a plan. People should ask themselves if they can afford -50%. If not, they should set a stop loss or exit the market with a small profit in a bull market and be done with it. Worst thing you can do is invest money you can't live without, see it drop 50%, accept defeat and sell and then feel like shit for years.