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2161  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [POLL] Do vaccines kill people? on: January 27, 2022, 03:58:57 PM
Vaccine of covid19 does not kill people, and i have not see any body the vaccination have kill so far, but what i know is that  vaccine that will kill is one manufactured from wrong area without the awareness of government approval and i know that some people don't like to take the vaccine
I haven't seen anyone killed by Covid19, does that mean it doesn't kill?
2162  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My take on the market on: January 27, 2022, 03:43:40 PM
I'm pretty sure we need more time to break 40k, but with Bitcoin anything is possible. S&P 500 got a little bounce yesterday but is still much lower than it was 5 days ago. Nasdaq again lower today than it was on the 20th... This Bitcoin move is fueled purely by Bitcoin itself. It can be amplified or quashed by the stocks in the coming weeks. 
Dont think the stock market is making the effect on bitcoin in this case, we have the habit of correlating things too much, I think they are both moving on their own accord. The fiat market in my country is dropping and bitcoin also started like that but bitcoin is now recovering while the fiat market here is still dropping.

Therefore I am putting money into stocks I wished to buy at low and also placed buy orders on bitcoin at 30k.
Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation is at all time high. Maybe not all stocks are linked to BTC, but tech stocks are for sure. BTC had it bounce back while indexes fell 2 days back, but that's because it had corrected much more and came close to the point of mining cost. It's not easy to make bitcoin run below the cost of mining. It happened before, but we always had fast bounces above when miners refused to sell at a loss.

I've searched on Youtube by using the keyword "bitcoin" yesterday and the results were hilarious.
All those clickbait videos with crazy thumbnails and all that overreaction and attention seeking.
All the bombastic headlines,like "You'll be shocked,If I tell you the truth about the current Bitcoin price crash!"
As if all those clowns and idiots on Youtube know the real reasons behind Bitcoin price drops. Grin
Anyway,you are pretty much right about the current situation on the market and Bitcoin fundamentals,but I keep thinking that the Bitcoin price was overinflated back in 2020-2021 and the next 1-2 years we won't be seeing crazy 60-70K USD price levels.There's little hope that I might be wrong about this.

And their headlines are hilarious.
"Bitcoin bloodbath, get ready for maximum pain" "bear market confirmed, it's over for bitcoin" and the same people 2 months later were saying to buy bitcoin for 60k and not miss out on the opportunity of a lifetime Cheesy
I'm disappointed by most youtube channels. They claim to know what's going on, claim to be crypto enthusiasts, yet every time the price moves they amplify the market sentiment by running around like headless chickens.

Actually, in 2 years we'll be very close to another halving and this usually works wonders for Bitcoin. The negativity rarely drags on for more than 6 months. Just wait until 1h chart moves forward so much that the November/December drops won't fit on people's screens and they'll act like it was never there Cool
2163  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is a fraction of Global Assets value (Ark-Invest report) on: January 27, 2022, 02:15:35 AM
I feel like this thread isn't getting enough attention not because it's bad in any way, but because of how bearish and disappointed people are. I can bet many have read it and thought "1 million per coin? yea right... I'm out of here".

I've seen these points brought up in the past, with the oldest one being that if Bitcoin sees at least 1% of global use it's going to be worth a million dollars, and that's true. If it became natural for people to have 1% of their investment portfolios in bitcoin, or even all the pension funds were to put 1% into bitcoin, we'd immediately experience a supply shortage that would turn into skyrocketing prices. I've seen what a single buy order of 1000 BTC can do to a price on exchanges. Imagine a number of such orders in a short time.

Bitcoin has a potential to go 100x, unlike any other investment, therefore it's just stupid not to have some. People buy lotery tickets that give them a chance to win that's lower than 1 in a million instead of buying bitcoin that gives a fair chance. If I were to estimate, there's over 90% chance that some day in the next 2 years BTC will be worth 2x more than it is now and at least 50% that it will go over 100k.
2164  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: The market is at the most oversold level on: January 27, 2022, 12:36:12 AM
I'd just like to add for people who rely on the RSI that it's a strength index. This means that a company that is going bankrupt will have low RSI, showing that it's oversold, but the process is going to continue until the stock disappears from exchanges and is no longer traded. In other words, a dying asset will also be oversold.

I'm not trying to discourage you, simply playing a devil's advocate, but don't forget that indexes and indicators are not going to tell you what to do. The fact that Bitcoin has never done this or that doesn't mean it won't.
2165  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] AllStarsBet101.com | Signature Campaign | Sr. Members+ ~ Up to $60/Week on: January 27, 2022, 12:20:15 AM
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2166  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Still haven't sold a bit of BTC since 2013... if I can do it you can do it too! on: January 26, 2022, 09:58:08 PM
Good job OP. I wouldn't be able to hold for that long without at least taking some profit.

I'm a holder since 2015, but I feel that celebrating each ATH with some spending is the way to feel even better about it. Each time BTC reaches a significant level for the first time like $10k, $20k, $30k, I turn some of my holdings into a physical object and this makes me feel good even when the price falls. That said, I  know that I will never be completely out. If we go to 100k net year I'll just sell another 10% of my portfolio and keep holding the rest. I'd like my daughter to get BTC when she's old enough to understand it.
2167  Economy / Economics / Re: IMF urges El Salvador to remove Bitcoin as legal tender on: January 26, 2022, 09:45:51 PM
First of all if I were Bukele I'd take this as an insult. Some organization that doesn't have anything to do with my country says it wants to protect them. Do these people think I'm not able to take care of my people? Do they think I'm putting them at risk and they can do better? They were never interested in helping my country before and now they dare to criticize me?

IMF is actually putting the people at risk by extorting them. Imagine someone you rent your house from says "I want to protect you so I want my house back tomorrow". If you want to extort me at least don't act like you're doing it for my own good.
2168  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2022 Elliott Wave on: January 26, 2022, 02:36:43 PM


If you count from the bull market lows, every consecutive cycle was longer.
In the model above, if you count from the halving, the first cycle doesn't follow the pattern, you can clearly see that it was much shorter than the second one. There's completely no reason to estimate that if the first bottom was -75% and the second -70 the next one will be again lower by 5% it's a very far fetched prediction, pretty much like throwing the dice twice and scoring 6 on the first throw, 5 on the second, and putting the next bet on 4, because it's beginning to look like a pattern.

While I agree that counting bars from the day of halving can give you some idea of what might happen next, expecting every correction to be at -5%, just because it happened once is completely random.
2169  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My take on the market on: January 26, 2022, 02:20:47 PM
Finally, the price is back to $37k and the sign to rise is there so hopefully, the price will be back to $38k. Yes, the price can bounce back, although the price is not moving fast to the high price but we should gladly see this moment because we can profit from the coins. Bitcoin seems to have the power to lift the price to hope that it will be a good week for us. They should not worry about the fluctuations because they are part of the crypto price movements and we should try to benefit from that.


You want it - you got it.


I'm pretty sure we need more time to break 40k, but with Bitcoin anything is possible. S&P 500 got a little bounce yesterday but is still much lower than it was 5 days ago. Nasdaq again lower today than it was on the 20th... This Bitcoin move is fueled purely by Bitcoin itself. It can be amplified or quashed by the stocks in the coming weeks. 
2170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is $34k the bottom?? on: January 26, 2022, 02:01:47 PM
Well, it bounced from that price so we can say that it is a short term support.
But to call it as a support for long term? I don't think so because I believe that the downward pressure isn't over yet.

RSI is at 35 and MACD is still below 0. Though it already bounced back in RSI, I think that we might see more downward movement in the upcoming days until we reach the $30,000 support. I might be wrong though and we might see Bitcoin going up to $40,000 in the next days but if it will not happen then this short rise is a trap.

Overall even it is bottom or not, buying at this price will give you higher reward in the long term so better to accumulate as much as you can right now.

Talking bout RSI, anything below 30 is the oversold territory that suggests exhaustion of sellers and the end of a correction. It doesn't say when it will happen because low RSI can drag on for weeks, but it also doesn't have to mean lower lows from this point.
We were at 24 a few days ago, so even if this is a trap and I'm pretty sure traders will try to short at 40k and we'll keep bouncing up and down, the 30k level is a strong support. Chances of going down below it right now are low.

The most probable scenario is a channel between 30 and 40k with falling volume that will eventually lead to a breakout. It will either end with a last capitulation to the downside (maybe 25k?) and then a strong bounce back to 30k, or a breakout to the 40-50k channel and another period of sideways trading there. 30k feels a lot like 2018 6k support that we eventually broke to the downside.
2171  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin 2022 bear market? on: January 26, 2022, 11:53:20 AM
It's true that if we follow the 4-year cycle, it should start the bear market by now. But before the bull run has started by 2021 and halving of 2020. The bull run has already started by the end of 2020 which shouldn't happen if we're following the cycle.

In that case, there's already the change from that pattern and cycle that we used to follow.

It's not the only pattern that changed. Before 2021 the bull runs took us at least 10x up, ended with an overheated top and were followed by a huge correction (50% in a few days) and a dead cat bounce.
This time there was just a 3x increase in price, a slow correction to 50%, another top, followed up by another 50% correction, but both times no dead cat bounce. IMO we can't rely on the previous bull markets anymore because each of them were different and each consecutive one had more institutional investors compared to the retail.

I think the bear market is still just starting, btc should now be around 16-22k on average price until 2025.

16k? how did you come up with this number? It makes no sense because the bull run did not start at 16 and this level was never an important resistance. 16k was never a top nor a bottom of any correction. Also, there's bitcoin's 200 week MA, which has served as the indicator of the lowest point in bear markets for the last 10 years and it's currently at 19k. On top of that there's mining profitability
level that currently at 30k, which is why this level is holding as a resistance. Miner capitulation is possible of course, but I don't think it's possible to go 50% below the profitability level. For this reason I feel like you took a random number without too much thinking.
2172  Economy / Economics / Re: Overseing health and environmental impact of high energy required in Bitcoin on: January 26, 2022, 11:10:24 AM
Due to high consumption of power (electricity) demand in bitcoin operations ... finding a solution to ameliorate the hazardous impacts of high power demand causing an unending continuous emmision of CO gas which is believe to be human and environmentally hazardous.

It seems to me that you are saying that Bitcoin mining is a problem because electricity generation produces carbon monoxide. That's a new one.

The problem is that electricity generation produces CO. Electricity usage does not.

That's exactly the part eco terrorists want you to forget. The narrative is that if you mine bitcoin you hurt the environment and it can be divided into two main arguments:
1. The life of a miner is usually 2 years and then it gets thrown away.
2. Mining hurts the environment and uses too much energy.

In reality, most mining farms currently use old miners because they're still making profit. Most mining in the world is done on older antminers made before 2019, so the life of a miner is much longer than 2 years. What does it mean "too much?" Particle accelerators used a lot of energy and costed a lot of money. Global arms market costs a lot of money and most tanks ships and fighter jets are thrown away without ever seeing battle.
2173  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Investor Psychology on: January 25, 2022, 11:28:03 PM
It's funny but I have some friends who are as typical when it comes to "crowd mentality" as it gets. One of them always messages me when bitcoin goes up a lot and asks if this is the right time to buy, but when it goes down he never wants to talk about it and says that this time it will be over for bitcoin. The other one always waits until the last moment. He needs a few months to finally produce enough confidence to buy, but then it's usually late. When it keeps falling he does the same. Fear slowly builds up for months and months and finally when he's down 70% he sells.

They both witnessed the 2017 and 2021 bull markets and never made serious money.

I also know another "typical guy" who keeps telling me that bitcoin is too expensive for him and always invests in the most shitty altcoins out there. He's like a compass for what not to touch.

It's interesting that people always go after the easiest and the most obvious pattern: I put 1 dollar in the slot machine and got 2, therefore if I put 100 I will get 200. This is the shit most people believe in and it works both ways: I bought Bitcoin and it went down, therefore if I buy again it will go down again and I lose money, so I better not.
2174  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Can Man Lives without Sex? on: January 25, 2022, 11:04:56 PM
Sex is the intercourse between man and a woman which meant to reproduce likeness.

But the contemporary generation take sex as an intoxicating flashly enjoyment that causes sin which is against God.
Man will always take sex as an intoxicating flashy enjoyment because when God created Adam and Eve sex did not happen during the time God plan it. It happened when satan brainwash Eve.
If you see any man intoxicating flashy enjoyment this is the reason.

I guess that's why priest are wiser than that. They don't allow Satan to brainwash them like he did Eve and live in celibacy. Oh, wait...
Does it make you feel better after sex when you tell yourself that your flesh is weak because of what happened in the Olive Garden? Tongue
2175  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine on: January 25, 2022, 10:45:10 PM
This is a very serious situation and Putin is not fucking around.

Boris Johnson has just said to Putin:

"If Russia pursues this path, many Russian mothers' sons will not be coming home."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qW9AFBfl0N0

Maybe that's the reason why crypto and stocks are crashing lately.


Good speech by Johnson, but it's like talking to your own hand. In Russia people were always the cheapest and most expendable resource. The Soviets knew many sons and husbands would not be returning home from Afghanistan, but that did not stop them from waging that stupid, pointless war.

A nice example of Russian mentality is the Warsaw Pact war plan, which is a plan of invasion of Europe developed in the 60s. In short, they were planning to use nuclear weapons on the whole continent and immediately send in soldiers equipped with basic gear like gas masks and special coats. The idea was to send Hungarians, Romanians, Poles first, the moment the nukes hit, and make sure they are pumped full of anti radiation pills, well fed and told the gear will keep them safe, to make them feel good for a few days and keep fighting. Expendables first. It's not the only time the Russians acted in this manner. The Ukrainians did the same in Chernobyl when they delayed the evacuation of Pripyat and did not inform the world that there's a cloud of radiation going West.
2176  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine on: January 25, 2022, 03:21:01 PM
If they don't want Ukraine to be part of NATO, then what's the answer? Russia takes Ukraine, and it becomes part of Russia, and then Russia borders Poland and Romania, so "we don't want Poland/Romania to be part of NATO" ... If this is the main concern, then the only solution for Russia is to take over all of mainland Europe. Estonia, Latvia etc have been in NATO for years, and it may have been a kick in the Baltics for Russia, but why would Ukraine be the concern?

This is exactly their goal. They are trying to recreate Soviet Union by increasing their influence over Central Europe and weakening their Western neighbors. They're building Nord Stream for that exact purpose. Before Nord Stream they only had "yamal", which they used to transfer gas to Germany through Poland, but that did not allow them to cut supplies to Poland without doing the same to Germany. Now they can do it and they are doing it. Last time I checked Poland was forced to get their gas straight from Katar because Russia upped the prices on them so much that it was cheaper to send ships to another continent.

Do you know how you can recognize a country scared of, or already involved in an armed conflict? By conscription. Countries who still have it must have a need for it, because statistics have shown that conscripted armies are not as well equipped, trained, and more expensive than volunteers. Most countries no longer have a need for conscription, but it still exists in North and South Korea, Israel... and Ukraine (which even requires women to register), Lithuania, Belarus and of course in Russia. Eastern Europe is like a big pot that's about to boil over.
2177  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My take on the market on: January 25, 2022, 02:43:22 PM
During the rise from 30k to all time high, I did assume the market to to drop back to 34k and test the support levels because it was crossed in a short period of time and I was in the belief that the support level had not developed much there. However a few months and the price continued above 50k and I assumed that I might have been wrong and support levels did become strong there.

I was eventually shown that my first assumption was correct, just that it was never tested till this month when prices dropped and the 35k support level was tested. I still consider the 30k mark to be the safer buying option or even lower if we see that. This is not the time to sell, do that again when bitcoin crosses beyond 50k.

Right now, just wait for lower prices to buy in.

According to the logarithmic regression band that some traders use to calculate future highs and lows the average price of Bitcoin right now is ~32k USD The lows of the band are at 19k.
Historically the lows of this band were always the lowest point to which Bitcoin was falling in a prolonged bear market and it often returned to and above the middle range.

I remember reading a thread some time last year where people were asking if Bitcoin will ever fall below 50k. Funny how in a bull market people tend to be unreasonable in one way and in bear the other.

I love this your write up, you took your time to come up with it. What I have learnt from this write up majorly is that we are having a global 'bad market' it not just about crypto but also stock markets. Every other aspects is for newbies who are yet to experience bitcoin in cycle of four years, because if they have believe me they will not be panicking and talk more of panic selling. I think life is about learning and growing, certainly they will learn from this one and perhaps do better in the future when the market goes bearish.

Thanks. Good luck with your investments.

Basically, this should what investors do and avoid not panicking and selling during the dip, I tend to agree with this idea.  When there's a dip, buyers would be the right time to enter the market and sellers should hoard their assets until the hype will come.  We know that there's no infinite growth of Bitcoin price or let's say the entire crypto market, corrections always occur at any time.  It always fluctuates creates a wave position that might up and down and when people listen to the FUD, it's expecting that the market will continue going down.

I believe that the market will not go down beyond $30k, for short traders who bought Bitcoin at the dip for sure they're happy to see their profit now while the earlier investors still hoarding their assets.

Selling in a downtrend isn't that bad as long as you do it early on. Unfortunately people tend to hold it off and every subsequent drop is like torture to them. When you put money on the line you need a plan. People should ask themselves if they can afford -50%. If not, they should set a stop loss or exit the market with a small profit in a bull market and be done with it. Worst thing you can do is invest money you can't live without, see it drop 50%, accept defeat and sell and then feel like shit for years.
2178  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] arteq.io | NFT Art Investment Fund Signature Campaign | Sr. Members+ on: January 25, 2022, 02:24:12 PM
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2179  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine on: January 25, 2022, 02:38:17 AM
Russia is doing what it wants. It took Crimea, made Belarus its puppet state, shot down a Malaysian passenger jet and blamed it on the Ukrainians, refused to give back Polish government plane that crashed in Smolensk, forced the US to cancel a deal with Poland that was supposed to place missile defense systems along its eastern border. Russian agents poisoned Sergei Skripal and his daughter, poisoned and then arrested Alexei Navalny. Putin and Lavrov often threaten other countries and lie in public. Russian elections are known to be a joke and in one of them there was so many fraudulent votes for Putin that the sum of votes shown on TV was over 100%.

I'm fairly certain that if they invade Ukraine, the UN, NATO and the EU will issue formal letters to Putin, maybe even call him, then do some reconnaissance flights, drop some aid packages, accept refugees and that's going to be it.
2180  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do Bitcoin Maxis sell - ever? on: January 25, 2022, 12:50:00 AM
I've been holding for 6 years and selling in bull markets, barely touching coins when season of the bear comes.
I'm not planning to hold forever but so far Bitcoin worked like a machine that generates free money. Literally free and it keeps on giving. I almost feel like I have a debt to pay back to Satoshi and since I can't do it I'm at least going to treat BTC with the respect it deserves.

To explain what free money is. I got rewarded for holding with free BCH and then free BSV. I sold both of them right after the split and kept grabbing other airdrops that they were giving for free to bitcoin users like stellar lumens. It was all for free. I must've claimed at least $10k in free coins between 2017 and 2019. Every time Bitcoin breaks an ATH I celebrate by spending about 10% of my holdings. Usually that's enough to keep me going for years if a prolonged bear market comes.

I was in situations where my coins went up 10x and I didn't sell. I was also in situations where my portfolio was down 80% from the top and I didn't sell. I don't have stuff that I need so much to dump all my bitcoins, even if they were to go up 100x or something. If managed correctly a portfolio of 10 BTC could last you a lifetime and work as a store of value, emergency source of money, a part of your SHTF bug out bag, whatever you want...

People who never held bitcoins for a long time will not understand the pleasure this can give you when you keep living your life, not checking the price, and suddenly a big buy comes up like you got a kid and need a bigger and safer car and you check how bitcoin is doing and Mr. Bitcoin says -hey, I got you bro! I made you 300k last year while you were working your ass off for scraps. Tongue
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