We are joking with a friend of mine that he bought the most expensive SSD in the world. It was in 2016 and his old drive gave up and we wanted to play some online shooter, or something and he spend somewhere around 0.5BTC for one. He had some BTC left and in 2021 he bought himself a new motorcycle that costed less than that SSD a few years back.

At times like this I wonder what I'd do if I were ever to see bitcoin at the level at which I bought for the first time. It would be a scary thing for sure, so I understand all those people who sell when the price hits their level. Imagine buying at 20k, waiting almost 2 years and seeing it again at 19k. Would you buy more or sell and exit the market?

It's especially hard to predict because the markets are illiquid. I've watched a number of smart people talking about it on various podcasts.

Compare this to stocks where let's say you have a local shipping company and the company trades on the main exchange in the country. The company puts x amount for sale, like 50% and that's all available at the exchange either held by investors, ready to be sold, or already in the form of orders. With Bitcoin it's completely different as there are hundreds of exchanges that trade bitcoin all around the world and only a few of them are connected to these big tickers that make people try to catch up to what binance, bitfinex, coinbase and few others are doing.
Also over 70% of all coins are out of exchanges, so the price is based on trades of a fraction of the whole. If you want to participate you have to send money to an exchange and get it added to the balance of your account which can take hours or even days when it comes to small exchanges.

Then there's miners who constantly put pressure on the market selling coins, so when a traditional company can have the ratio of buyers to sellers at 50% to stay at the same point, bitcoin needs buyers to dominate just so it can stay at the same point.
When drops scare off investors, just like it happened when we dropped below the 2021 low, the pressure put by miners keeps dragging us down and it's going to continue until someone steps in and buys enough coins for the market to turn around.

It's all based on belief that the bear market is over and we are going to go up, that's all. There's nothing wrong with bitcoin, but nobody wants to touch it for some reason. People are waiting for a sign of strength, but there will be no such thing until they, themselves start showing strength.

Never leave at a loss. Never give up, never accept defeat, like that knight from Monty Python.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs

For me it's just another day. Idiots dumping in panic despite it being 70% from the top and them being down on their investment after holding for a year and refusing to sell at much higher levels.
It always baffles me how people can hold being at 50% loss, 60, 70 and then they hit a point like -78% and they say no more, I'm out! Like those who were selling Luna at 99% loss. What does it matter if you get $10 from your 1k investment or not? What are you going to buy with it? A rope?

If only people were able to think in these hard times and take a break. After every bear market comes a bull market! I don't know how many times I told people that in 2018/19.

There's so much going on that people are getting confused. I feel like the FED is trying to slow it down but it won't help. They are pumping the dollar but there's no getting out of this spiral, eventually they will have to let inflation do its thing because they printed so much money that it's going to be impossible to stop. It's like they set the house on fire and are now pouring water over it with a bucket, but it's not going to stop just like that and even when you manage to stop it the house will be unfit to live in for a while.

Fractional reserve banking, quantitative easing, covid lockdowns, everything added to this situation and crashing stocks will not make it better.

My ATL at this point is 14k, but I'm not going to wait for it or bet on it. I sell only in high prices and hold through bear markets. I didn't sell anything at 40 or 30k and I'm not selling at 20. If I'm to hold for another 3 years, so be it.

I was looking for this in the comments after reading OP.

Mike is not someone who you'd want to listen to since in early 2018 he made a bitcoin price prediction of $50k by the end of that year and instead of going to 50, bitcoin went to $3k.


Don't forget about Burry. He came out of his closet this year to again warn us about the recession and an upcoming stock market crash.
The truth is, at some point it's going to happen and then they'll all say "we told you so".

I completely agree. This is another attempt by the government to control people and know their habits. They aren't doing it to protect young people or anything like that. They are doing it for the same reason why they're trying to launch CBDCs, which is to know your every move and be able to ban you from services with a click of a mouse. Once you're in their system they are going to know where you registered, where you paid, how much, at what time of the day... You're going to take a day off, call in sick at work, they are going to know if you're really sick by having access to your payments and online uses of your ID. Fueled your car and then gambled in the evening? Your employer will know you were bullshitting about being sick

This is the main issue. If a child is smart and cunning enough to be able to use cards that belong to his parents he's also be able to use VPN and hide his age. You'd need all gambling sites to run video verification like the KYC done by banks and they'd still probably try to cheat with face changing software or fake IDs because there's no risk. Worst case scenario a casino bans them and they will try to make an account elsewhere.
Good effort by Germany but it will probably make everyone's lives there harder with more restrictions and teenagers will still find a way around it.

10 month low was in May when we fell below the lows of July 2021

This is the problem of bear markets and bull markets. In bull people buy at the top thinking that since it was going up for the last X months there's no stopping it now. In bear people do the opposite, thinking that if it kept falling for X months it will continue forever.
That's why most people never make money and I personally know a guy with that exact mentality.
He always waits to buy at lows because he wants to see a reversal. When it reverses he never buys because he waits until it's confirmed, not a fakeout. Then he finally buys at the end of a bull market because it's finally confirmed to him and holds because he wants big profit - at least 100%. Then it corrects and he holds as long as he's in profit because in his mind it can bounce back at any minute. Finally he sells it all at a loss and goes into this state of depression where he doesn't talk to me for months. He suddenly appears when we're well in the next bull market to ask if he should buy because bitcoin is starting to look good again, and so it goes for the last 8 years, or so. Believe it or not, he first bought bitcoin in 2015 and after all these years made not more than 10%.  

Great points. I'd only like to add that the system proposed in the article will only work among casinos that agree to use this global self-exclusion. I'm sure there will be a number of sites that won't ant this is going to counteract the initiative. As the gambler that I am, I can bet you that when the gambler self excludes himself and takes a few days off, sleeps on the loss, the next thing he'll do is google sites that don't participate in the global program. Sites where he'll still be able to play.

I really don't care much about that as my country restricts basically every online casino just because they "worry about the financial health of its slaves?" or prefers people have some money to spend on various taxes rather than have some fun in a casino

For me there's a number of factors like the site's reviews, whether there's scam accusations on the forum or not, if they are active here and respond to questions, if they have a sig campaign or not, if they require KYC... Usually sites that are popular and have active moderators will not scam you, but you have to check their policies on VPNs and some other things. Before you start playing google them and check if people had any problems with them.

There's also a way to do it without an escrow, but it requires you to pay for the first hour up front. A forum account is worth more than $100 so a hero or legendary member won't risk getting accused of scamming anyone for such a small amount of money.

Let us know more about the job and what skills are required. I know how to write a review, if that's what you want.

I never sell bitcoin when it's 50% or more down from its ATH. Usually when it's in a correction between 50 and 100% of ATH I prefer to wait and see it unfold. If it bounces back and continues to go up like in 2021 I go back to slowly exchanging it for goods, but when it goes below 50% of ATH, like when it dipped to 6k in 2018 or to 30k this year, I stop waiting and begin to accumulate. I've been doing it for the last 8 years and I see no reason to stop now.

I don't have much to sell because I usually don't hold things that I don't use. If there's something laying around at home I sell it online or throw it away. I have a car that I bought last year for my bitcoin profits and it would be a great bargain to sell it for BTC because its price went up due to inflation and I'd get much more bitcoins for it that I had to sell to get it, but I'm using it daily. Same with my house, my computer, things like that.

This is something you guys can learn from me. Always make sure you have much more cash saved up than you think you'll need. I sold some bitcoins at 50-65k range and I thought this is going to be enough to rebuy when the bear market comes and cover all my expenses, but the inflation and gas prices make me think that I might not have enough.

Countries are corrupt as hell. When EU voted for sanctions against Russia, France continued to buy from Russia and sell them military equipment.
There's a list of countries that finance Russian attack on Ukraine by trading with them and the founding members of the EU are at its top.

It's like the world is preying on this war fueling both sides. Ukraine gets weapons and Russia gets money and they both keep getting weaker while the vultures wait to pick their bones when it all ends.

Peter was always against bitcoin and this would be very unusual for him to tell you to buy it at any date and price. Don't expect any honest advice from him and this is a perfect example when he comes at -70% from the top and tells you to sell hoping that if enough people listen to him the price will go even lower and he'll be able to start his rant how worthless bitcoin is and how you'd do better buying gold. Gold that he can sell you at a premium.


It did not test the upper line this cycle, that's why people were waiting for 100k and it didn't happen.
I stand by my prediction that this cycle wasn't overbought like 2013 and 2017 and it's not going to correct 85% like those cycles. Unfortunately there was a lot of FUD and manipulation this time from the side of stable coins that dragged us down below the strong support of 23k and it caused a widespread panic among people who bought their first coins in 2021.


Remember that the lower we go in price the more we dip into the long term holder territory and you can see in Peter's prediction that he acknowledges that. He knows that every cycle there's more holders who take coins out of exchanges and that is why the lows for bitcoin are always higher and will continue to go higher. He sees the low at 10k, but just in 2020 it was at 3k, so even a permabear like Peter thinks the number of holders is three times what it was 2 years ago.

I also did not expect 20k to happen without a bounce back. This is a good example of why we shouldn't look for similarities in the cycles. In 2018 we had plenty of bounces in the bear market.
It's actually very strange that they are able to crash the price so much after such a week bull run. Every time I see this and I've seen it at least once each year, it amazes me that when price falls by 60% or 70% there are still people willing to sell at a loss.

I remember various traders tried to make us think we'd go to 1000 when we were at 3000 in 2019, but it didn't work out for them. Now we are in another cycle so 3000 is gone forever.
I know it's nice to dream about buying at less than 5% of ATH but the market will not let you. People know how much potential there is in Bitcoin and the lower we get the more buyers there will be. Leveraged market reaches maybe down to 20k. Everything below is holders so you'd have to persuade people who held for over 12 months to sell at a loss. Wishful thinking.

At times like this you have to ask yourselves if this is the same bitcoin people were paying 60k for, or not. What is the reason that it went down in price. Is this Bitcoin's flaw? If it is, you should worry. Like when you hold stocks of a car company and the company stops making cars because one of its factories went up in flames or there's a war in the country where it produces, it's time to sell.
In case of Bitcoin there's nothing wrong with it. Its price went down due to Luna dump that caused panic and because of high inflation in the USA that causes stocks to lose value and stock investors are selling everything they hold including cryptocurrencies. It doesn't mean cryptocurrencies are bad, it's just investors going bust and selling at at a loss to cover debt.

I keep holding and I'm going to continue, regardless of the price. If it goes to 10k, I'll still have the same number of coins that I had at 30k. None of these prices satisfy me enough to sell.

It doesn't mean you cannot be. We've all started somewhere!

If you need money to cash out, it means you've invested too much. This is a problem of many people who get too greedy. They have 10k in the bank, they invest it all and the price goes down and they get stuck in this greed not wanting to take a loss and at the same time begging family and friends for some money to pay the bills.

I'm heavily invested, probably 90% of all my money is in bitcoin, but that 10% that I have lying around is enough to survive another 2 years if I need to. I won't be able to buy myself nice things, but I won't be going into debt either.

Look at it like this OP.
You bought Bitcoin. It doesn't matter what you paid for it, it could've been 30k or 60k, but you wanted it and you got it. It's yours and it still has the same utility that it had back then. You felt fine because other people were also buying at that price so you felt a part of the crowd, like if they're doing it everything must be OK. Then some of them started selling at a loss, but you didn't and now you feel like you're doing something wrong because more people are selling than buying. Think about it for a while, you don't have to follow other people all the time, you have your own brain.

I held Bitcoin when it was worth $500 and $5k and then $20k and then $10k and back to $3k, back to $10k and to $3k again... It's still the same bitcoin and it's not going away.

How are you going to claim them if you don't own the keys and the exchange disappears, like quadriga, btc-e and many others?
As long as you don't own the keys you are only a passenger in this car driven by someone else. You can tell them directions but they can always ignore it and run you into a wall.

I couldn't care less about WBTC. Never used any of these coins in my life and that includes all stable coins. Bitcoin was doing well without ponzi schemes like Luna and is going to do well without them.