I stand correct, the SR point is so '2011ish, everybody understands that BTC is not "heavily influenced" by illegal activity, that's a drop in the ocean, what drives BTC is the hope it will be valued higher in the future.
Let's use a different word , more suitable  . Greed Yeah, I also discussed with you about how "important" was SR in BTC's economy compared to pure speculation, right? And if I don't remember it wrong we reached the common conclusion that both BTC and fiat economy are driven by speculation, there's no other business comparable to it, correct?  |
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I don't know how I could argue that because is true. Still, 99% is speculation. ASIC and SR are a drop in the ocean compared to the relevance of speculation in the BTC economy.
The Silk Road talk is so '2011ish. Came on. People sees that there's much more in BTC, besides of the fact that real economy is still reduced and that it's very speculation driven.
This baby needs to grow a little bit, but it's unstoppable.
Mmmm, yes, so what did I change? Bitcoin is not only SR, but SR happens to be its "killer app". In fact, BTC is not driven by SR, but by pure speculation, as I wrote in that old post that was a reply to this: there is no VC that is going to put significant amounts of cash into something that is so heavily influenced by illegal activity.
I stand correct, the SR point is so '2011ish, everybody understands that BTC is not "heavily influenced" by illegal activity, that's a drop in the ocean, what drives BTC is the hope it will be valued higher in the future. |
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Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.
Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing. No, I didn't change anything. We were speaking about regulation. You said that if BTC was banned by the US, it would die and fail miserably. I said that even if it was banned, it would absorb more black market economy activity, which would make BTC grow and its price raise. Note that I say SR is genius, and we need more killer apps like SR. Business models that couldn't exist without BTC. You mocked SR, to the contrary I consider it genius, and I say BTC needs more and bigger SR's. You mistake me for the wrong person. I said that the only use where bitcoin is better than fiat at this point is Silkroad and store of value. I said that bitcoin economy = silkroad + asics + speculation and nothing else. I don't know how I could argue that because is true. Still, 99% is speculation. ASIC and SR are a drop in the ocean compared to the relevance of speculation in the BTC economy. |
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From a TA point of view, it makes sense to sort of continue where we left off (minus some room up for advancements, adoption, store of value, global economic situation, etc.)
That puts us anywhere from 20's to 50's (and I'd say at the lower range of that BUT we have to consider our advancement and such as stated above.)
Exactly this. It's not only TA, it's also common sense. When price started to skyrocket at $20-30, we had a clear bubble inflation, where people bought a lot and quickly because they hoped the price would raise a lot and very fast. The last weeks before the crash was pure "mania", with market buy orders of +$1M from people that irrationally feared they wouldn't be able to buy again at those prices. What trigger that? Cyprus? Nah. Just greed, bubble psychology works like that, you want to hop on the train as soon as possible so you make as much money as possible. Then bubbles pop, and you have the opposite logic. People is in just because the price was going "to da moon", they realize the price is going down so they sell, the sells make the price to go down quickly and trigger panic, which triggers more downwards movement, wash rinse and repeat. Really no ETF news will change that cycle. All this speculative mania has to deflate for good, all those who bought for the pure quick profit need to sell, and while the user base will for sure have increased because of the bubble media exposure, it's nowhere so big to support the current prices. $20 to $50 is probably spot on as a "real" current value of BTC. During the bubble inflation I always thought that when it popped, logic thing would be for its bottom to be the top of the previous bubble ($32). Some will call me a "depicable bear" for this opinion, but I think that I was buying Bitcoins at $13 in January, and i don't see how believing in a bottom of $30ish is so negative and bearish. At the end of the day, it's more than double the price we had at the beginning of the year, which makes BTC an excellent investment if you avoid to get caught in the inflation of the bubble. |
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Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level.
Wow you sure changed in one month, I remember arguing with you about this exact thing. No, I didn't change anything. We were speaking about regulation. You said that if BTC was banned by the US, it would die and fail miserably. I said that even if it was banned, it would absorb more black market economy activity, which would make BTC grow and its price raise. Note that I say SR is genius, and we need more killer apps like SR. Business models that couldn't exist without BTC. You mocked SR, to the contrary I consider it genius, and I say BTC needs more and bigger SR's. |
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Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first. In my opinion this kind of news is extremely interesting, and while it's neglected by many, its potentially more bullish than any ETF. Underdeveloped counties can play a fundamental role in future currencies and stores of value. In a sense we need a killer app of some type. This could be the start at least in another country. We only need things to start taking off in one location and then the organic nature of BTC (, developers and the VC's) can take over. My concern though, with something like this is the volatility of BTC. That is not a problem if you are using Bitpay or the like, but for BTC to work in these countries I would think there needs to be some form of stability, UNLESS the inflation rate there is more risky than BTC (e.g. - Argentina). Can you imagine if this "app" takes off AFTER we correct and people in poor nations are locked into something deflationary and rising quite steadily in price? IAS Completely agree on the killer app. Right now, the only killer app of Bitcoin is Silk Road. It's genius, but more are needed to reach a next level. |
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Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first. In my opinion this kind of news is extremely interesting, and while it's neglected by many, its potentially more bullish than any ETF. Underdeveloped counties can play a fundamental role in future currencies and stores of value. Edit: I agree lately we have only good news. As I like to say: Bitcoin is stronger than ever. But there is still a long way to go (should I remind you that the exchange that controls most of the market is "Magic The Gathering Online Exchange"?  ), and the actual prices were shaken that a speculative bubble that popped. Now is time for speculators to take their profits (or cut their losses), and thus for the hype and price to go down, while serious infrastructure is built and important things happen at a "real economy" pace. |
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I don't see so much bearishness in here. Until yesterday, it was denial in each and every post. Since the latest crash, a bit of fear, but just a bit. Go and check the November 2011 posts to see the difference - that's "bearishness".
The turning point will be when the number of posts actually declines consistently. When you will see people totally losing interest in Bitcoin, articles on mainstream media claiming Bitcoin is dead and a failed experiment... Well, that will be "very bearish".
Now I just read the cheering of a bunch of happy guys waiting for their cheap coins from one side, and the perma-bulls in denial from the other. Not a lot of negativity on BTC which would support the theory that the end of the bear market is nowhere close.
You're way too stuck on thinking about set stages like denial - fear - capitulation, like it just has to follow exactly that pattern. That's not reality imo, bitcoin will do its own thing and that may not be what you had in mind. I'm not saying that those are rules set in stone, but empyrical experience says that they quite accurately represent market psychology during a bubble. The 2011 bubble was very canonic, and this one so far too, especially in its inflation which has been fueled by speculative mania in its purest form. Bitcoin was designed with characteristics that make it very prone to speculation and boom and bust cycles, and while the market is so tiny, its future so uncertain, these cycles mimic very well the typical speculative bubbles of some commodities and penny stock markets. If the market contradicts me I will be extremely happy, because first and foremost I'm in Bitcoin because I believe is a revolutionary tool that could change the world for good. But in the meanwhile, I cannot help thinking this was a huge bubble that needs to fully deflate, just because most people is in this because they hope its value will be higher, and when the price halves several times people starts to panic and feel cheated, undervalues the asset, the bottom is reached and then the cycle restarts. It's like that 99% of the times, it was like that in 2011, and the most likely scenario its that it will be the same this time too. |
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All the guys who requested a refund, please give us an update.
I closed my ticket! You received the refund? |
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I don't see so much bearishness in here. Until yesterday, it was denial in each and every post. Since the latest crash, a bit of fear, but just a bit. Go and check the November 2011 posts to see the difference - that's "bearishness".
The turning point will be when the number of posts actually declines consistently. When you will see people totally losing interest in Bitcoin, articles on mainstream media claiming Bitcoin is dead and a failed experiment... Well, that will be "very bearish".
Now I just read the cheering of a bunch of happy guys waiting for their cheap coins from one side, and the perma-bulls in denial from the other. Not a lot of negativity on BTC which would support the theory that the end of the bear market is nowhere close.
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Bitchick: there's no more buying going on because the masses understand only one thing: the price is going Up UP UP, hop on the train before it's too late!
Which is obviously not the case while a bubble deflates.
Price is at a very healthy level considering how shitty is the current infrastructure and at what price BTC was traded one year ago. Just chill.
I am completely bullish and have not sold anything. I would be buying if I did not have all my cash tied up at the moment. So yes, just chilling. I guess I am a little surprised more people were not buying on the Winklevii news. That is all. Those news (like Cyprus or "Bitcoin is on CCTV") have just a marginal impact on short term price. Very marginal. I wonder why people gives them so much importance, like they need to believe the price of a speculative asset like Bitcoin has some "rational" behind it. Plus, even if someone that is not yet into Bitcoin decided to invest because saw the Winkle-twins initiative, it will take time for him to figure out how to wire his hard-earned money to Magic The Gathering Online Exchange to trade on their crappy engine. The fact is that the only significative news is: "the price is consistently going up uP UP!", which as soon as turns to "OMG Bitcoin broke all time high, hop on the train because its leaving the station!!!" leads to media hype and speculative mania -> prices go UP UP UP quicker, and there you have the hype loop leading to a bubble. The bubble is now deflating. That "news" ("prices are going DOWN Down down!!") are much more relevant to the market NOW than two twins filing a S-1 that may or may not be accepted in the mid-long term. In this scenario people is just willing to realize their profits/cut their losses, and probably look for a better entry point. Just old market psychology at work. |
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 Stop spreading sh*t people, things should go better now: https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.htmlBut it doesn't mean we should all depend on them... we should use more exchanges. Also spooking everyone isn't helping either. Instead of spreading sh*t we should spread the use of bitcoins for consuming. Local shops, bars, asking your favorite internet shop if they gonna use it, affirming that we are a strong community. Why are you crossposting this everywhere in speculation? You feel bad when BTC price goes down, we get it, just sell. |
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People, you don't get it. Rampion said we need to hit 50 first before we go up. So you can easily sell 100% now like he obviously also did. Unless he's full of shit ofcourse.
You and him both. Perhaps two sides of the same coin. I'm no perm-bear, saying the bubble needs to deflate (to $50 or whatever the bottom will be, I have no crystal ball) is just stating the obvious. If you think that I'm full of shit for believing we had a bubble which is now deflating, then maybe you are in denial of facts, but honestly it didn't seem so by your posts. In my opinion you can't say with certainty for extended periods. I made this thread once to state what I think about it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189308.0Agreed, impossible say with certainty for extended periods. I just say that before a positive cycle is resumed the price needs to fully deflate and then enter in a sustainable uptrend. Obviously nobody can predict a 100% certain timeframe, only guesstimate. But anyhow I don't understand your post about Rhodium, your point is that BTC will behave as Rhodium long term? I think that's BS. I don't deny that the charts look similar, with their two bubbles (good catch BTW), but they are fundamentally different assets. You say they have three properties in common: It is very rare, (much) rarer than Gold
It is somewhat of a fringe investment
It is subject to hypes
1) scarcity is relative in Bitcoin, as each BTC can be easily and very conveniently divided in 100.000.000 sub-units, ready to be immediately transferred with a clic. I don't see how its scarcity is comparable to Gold or Rhodium, apart from a fundamental and general aspect: supply is limited inflation is more or less predictable. 2) yes, but for different reasons. Bitcoin is still an experiment in its initial stages. 3) all commodities are subject to hypes My point is that I don't get what is the "killer similarity" between BTC and Rhodium. Yes, Bitcoin is a "digital commodity". But its "digital" form is not only an adjective, is a very important characteristic that makes Bitcoin different from any physical commodity. It can be easily transfered, transported, hided, divided, etc. Stores of value are needed, they provide an utility, and Bitcoin is a huge improvement in utility over physical stores of value because of its convenience and "digital" characteristics. Plus, you have the blockchain, which is a fascinating, multi-use beast by itself. Then, you have colored coins applications. The possibilities Bitcoins open go well beyond its similarity with physical commodities. I really think that saying that in the long term Bitcoin will probably behave like Rhodium is baseless. |
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Unless it crashes and burns like we see atm.
The flames are nowhere to be seen, its just in a downtrend because the bubble is deflating. It happened in 2011, the bottom was 1/16th from the top, and then it raised stronger. Nothing to be worried about, to the contrary a bubble deflation means that we will reach a point in which BTC will be seriously undervalued, and that will be a killer buying opportunity. Be glad you had the chance to catch that opportunity. |
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Bitcoin prices took so many knockdowns these past few months but always came back up. What's worrying about this decline is that it is gradual unlike the sudden drop in prices when Gox or SR shutdown.
One thing is a trap (bull or bear), a different one is a trend. The current trend is down. |
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People, you don't get it. Rampion said we need to hit 50 first before we go up. So you can easily sell 100% now like he obviously also did. Unless he's full of shit ofcourse.
You and him both. Perhaps two sides of the same coin. I'm no perm-bear, saying the bubble needs to deflate (to $50 or whatever the bottom will be, I have no crystal ball) is just stating the obvious. If you think that I'm full of shit for believing we had a bubble which is now deflating, then maybe you are in denial of facts, but honestly it didn't seem so by your posts. |
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Quote 1:...the accessibility of Bitcoin investments to general public will be ubiquitous.
Quote 2:hedge funds get their name because they hedge their positions on the market
example go long on oil futures and long on airlines stocks
1 if oil goes up let the oil futures run in profits cut the airlines stock
2 if oil goes down cut the futures and let the airlines stock run in profits how you hedge in bitcoin world?
Originally hedge funds used to hedge, as in your example, but nowadays any strategy goes. Being long in BTC is a possibility. The problem however, is that they normally want to buy financial products within a strict legal framework. The Coinlab deal is a first step towards making this possible, the ultimate goal would be a Bitcoin ETF. "'While silver can get to $15 or $20 before it's all said and done, the actual launching of the silver ETF could mark a short-term top for silver,' added Peter Grandich, noting that the silver ETF could represent a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' trade." /.../ "Analysts are also warning about potential confusion over the tax structure of precious-metals ETFs. Under current tax law, long-term gains from the sale of silver are taxed as 'collectibles' like artwork. Therefore, if held for more than a year, gains on the silver ETF would be taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, compared with 15% for so-called long-term gains on stocks. If sold in less than a year, gains are taxed as ordinary income.' - Ben Jones. Metals Dip On Profit Taking, ETF Worries. April 04, 2006. http://moneyandmetals.blogspot.com/2006/04/metals-dip-on-profit-taking-etf.htmlQuote 4:The gold ETF is being proved to be a sham, not convincingly so, but enough to anyone harboring a suspicious mind. Stories abound within ETF’s regarding shorting gold via futures, buying 10 cents worth of gold per dollar held, lack of transparency, unaccountability under the false guise of security concerns, and avoidance of SEC requirements enough to earn a formal investigation. Eventually, we will learn that on a good day, a fractionally managed gold ETF is right on target with their reality. My uglier view is that ETF’s will morph into non-producing hedge firms, simple queer adjunct skeletal illicitly controlled shams linked to the hedged mining firms themselves, whose certificates are fully mixed, those valid vaulted very real with those leased vanished never to be seen again. For smart people to trust the ETF offerings is evidence of utter complete stupidity in my book. Jim Turk’s original suspicions might have been met with calls of competitive bias, but no more. His concerns have all been borne out as authentic. He is a true gold patriot. For the precious metal community to embrace the upcoming silver ETF is beyond my comprehension. Such trust reminds me of the Iraq War and calls of weapons of mass destruction. Now Iran is a nuclear threat. Have we learned anything about disinformation? How intelligent is the gold community? Don’t confuse zeal and stubbornness for intelligence and craft. If Fanny Mae launched an ETF for housing investors, would we trust it? A credible argument can be made that the hedged gold institutions (within the establishment of the goomba World Gold Council to manage the gold ETF) is akin to the mafia managing the lending operations for the Teamster’s Union retirement fund. How is that working out? The streetTRACKS gold ETF (GLD) will have a similar fate someday, in managed receivership by some official steward. - Jim Willie CB. Why USFed Hikes, Unspoken. February 16, 2006 http://www.freemarketnews.com/Analysis/65/3825/2006-02-16.asp?nid=3825&fb=1&wid=65&ntyp=EMAhttp://economicrot.blogspot.com/2006_02_01_economicrot_archive.html#114037421219143602Quote 5:It's like fractional reserve banking.... one bar "owned" by 10 different entities. Bottom line is if you own precious metal ETF's you own PAPER! - thinkiam Jul 15 01:14 PM Comment on an article "Warnings to Precious Metal ETF Investors - Buyer Beware!" http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121744-mark-anthony/13311-warnings-to-precious-metal-etf-investors-buyer-beware Nice call. Bitchick: there's no more buying going on because the masses understand only one thing: the price is going Up UP UP, hop on the train before it's too late! Which is obviously not the case while a bubble deflates. Price is at a very healthy level considering how shitty is the current infrastructure and at what price BTC was traded one year ago. Just chill. |
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Well, While having absolutely no idea what Vladimir is talking about, I can confirm that very big, positive things for bitcoin are happening behind closed doors So... Did you know this? |
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What the hell is this rally, why did i not wake up 10 mins later today  It's not even a proper rally... Already deflating unfortunately. Still I'd have an extra few hundred $$ now in my account. would have could have should have , I'm hoping for another opportunity No prob. Shit happens. My bid at $71ish (54.77€ to be exact) was not filled by cents, so I missed a nice profit on this bounce. But that's life. Bid pulled, there will be lower lows in the future. Just remember this is always a slower process than we think. Suckers rallies and bull traps are expected. |
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I don't see ASICs killing BTC. There's a growth problem right now. ASICs start expensive and get cheaper. As a result, you see an early concentration. This is why I'm very happy with ASICMINER's cheaper price point for the USB Erupters.
They are not a great investment. There's still a reasonable chance that even at 1 BTC they will not make a full return on the investment. But there is a chance. Meanwhile, they're an extremely low barrier to entry mining device. 330 MH/s isn't a lot in the scheme of things...until you have tens of thousands of them distributed all over like we do today. BTC Guild alone has sold over 2,000 in 5 days.
Once you have one, you never have a reason to turn it off. It's extremely unlikely that they will hit a point where they cost more to run than they generate at 2.5w each. They're a small step towards decentralization, and you can expect as ASICs mature there will continue to be more low level offerings. They won't have the RoI of the bigger units, but they will help keep the hash rate from being fully concentrated in massive mining farms.
This. Those USB thingies are the real deal in terms of BTC decentralization. Plus, they are absolutely the best way to "spread the Bitcoin word". |
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