Gox?

You are right. Shorting bitcoins is crazy shit, you can be a bear and sell waiting for cheaper coins, but shorting is something I'd never do with BTC.

You are also right on the possibility of bouncing back to 90+. But I wouldn't call it "a recovery", I would call it another "epic sucker rally". Or a bull trap.

This.


Are you joking? To be a mod in here you have to be a bullshitter in denial of the cold hard facts?

Wow, so much butthurt and fail in these forums...


Still way to go. This is just the beginning of fear. Before it goes up again you will have despair and capitulation, Bitcoin needs to be really undervalued before consistently going up again, triggering a positive cycle.

Just remind it was traded at $13 in January. Right now it's still trading at inflated prices, the bubble is far from deflated yet.

How is this depth looking?



Bulls need to make this trap epic, so the depth can be replenished for another whale to take its dump. There's really no point in dumping now. The depth on the bid side is too shallow, its almost a joke. Hopefully bulls in denial will help this dead cat to bounce quite higher, replenishing the bid side for the dumper whales.

Yes, we were all confused. I said "the bear is on" just after the crash, and I got some arguing with long time members (I remember organofcorti, who I respect much, asked me: "do you have any empyrical proof or are you just bullshitting?", or something like that). I based that conclusion just on common sense, I was sure we had a major speculative bubble (who didn't see that?), and logical thing was bubble deflation.

Then, the sucker rally to $166 started, and it really confused us all. We were uncertain between the "bubble deflation" case, and the "correction" case. Did you remember that? We had all this "higher lows" trend which was a very different pattern compared to 2011. We were pretty much all uncertain, apart from Lucif, Bright Anarchist and Evolve. The first two never had a single doubt about we were in a roaring bear market, while the last one had some light doubts, while still consistently defending the most likely outcome was a bubble deflation.

For me the tipping point was the ridiculously low volume rally to $130 the last week of May. There I sold most of my coins (at $129ish if I remember it correctly), and I realized the "correction" case was less and less likely, and that gambling on it was definitely -EV.

Fun and profitable ride nevertheless, with respected fellow travelers in this journey, like yourself, IAS, Blitz, Adam, Oda.Krell, Evolve, etc. etc. etc.

First big bounce in the $50s is expected to be in the mid or high $50s, too much people wanting in at $50.

Still, depending on how painful are the traps and crashes before that point, confidence that $50 will hold may be very damaged. Just look at how easily all the other crucial support points ($88 and $79) fell.

Personally, two months ago I was ready to bet that $50 was going to be the very bottom. Now, I'm more inclined to think that there is a 70% chance that the bottom will be lower, something between $20 and $32. Just because there is too many people saying $50 is THE bottom, and during a bubble deflation the very bottom is always lower than most think.

Still, I believe that buying BTC at $50 is again a good investment for the long term, regardless of where the very bottom will end up being. And we will have awesome action at that point, that's for sure

All the guys who requested a refund, please give us an update.

Wow, massive (and very recent) buying from the very first address you sent. That guy bought almost 100k coins since 23rd January 2013 to 28th June 2013.

I guess he will be buying another 100k as soon as we go below $50, whales love to dollar cost average.

These threads do not affect btc market more than 0.00000%. The threads in here are just a rough picture of the sentiment of the hard-core Bitcoin community, which BTW is bullish by nature.

Really, someone has to be a deep retard to believe that his posts in here have any influence at all on the market.

The thread is spam? So, bearish analysis is spam? This is good, agressive behavior towards bearish analysis is a sign of nervous fear, we're definitely leaving behind the denial phase.

That's good for you perma-bulls, the sooner despair and capitulation happen, the sooner BTC will go up again. All "bears" in here are just people waiting for a good entry point, you should realize we all believe BTC long term, we are just better with more coins than with fewer of them.

BTW: if you think this thread is "spam" just report it and get it deleted.

Of course sold low and bought back at a loss in some occasion, or are 100% of your trades profitable? Always? Wow, then you are a demi-god.

Still, I'm very happy of how I performed so far, I'm still quite ahead in my day trading and very much ahead on my investment. I already recouped it back, I still have some coins I will never sell in a paper wallet (because I don't want to be totally out), and I have plenty of fiat from selling way above $100 that will allow me to at least double (if not more) my coins while having already covered my initial investment, which at the end the day if my end goal in this game.

BTW: No real support until $60s because we went through the $70s like a hot knife through butter. Just look at the depth. Only 10k coins to $70, and you know half of it will be pulled fast. Buying pressure when we hit $72 was ridiculous... Just compare the buying volume in the bounce from $72 to the selling volume on the way down.

Rallies on low volume? Yeah, nice, we all know how that ends up.

Why not? This is the speculation subforum. We are discussing the different phases in a bubble deflation. If you are in these subforums you are supposed to be interested in trading and short to mid term price action, no need to have fear, that's for the overemotional and amateurish herd - just watch the trend and act accordingly.

Yeah, it looks like that. Now everybody is aware that BTC already survived a massive bubble deflation, so there are not so many "Bitcoin is a scam" believers. That and the bigger USD volume thrown at BTC during this bubble will make perma-bulls to live in a longer denial, thus lengthening their own suffering.

Still a couple of epic traps to go before despair and capitulation. I still don't think that the bear will last for multiple years as Birght Anarchist says, for sure many months to come, but 2/3 years seems a bit too much for BTC standards. Anyhow, BrightAnarchist got it right so far, let's grab some popcorn and see how this plays out.

Please do.

It looks like the obvious "return to normal" (aka "denial") phase is fading out, as we're heading to the fear phase.

We're now trading below the 200 day EMA. Meanwhile, market depth on the bid side is shallow, no real support till the $60s.

You can start smelling the fear. Many will be burnt in the epic traps we will have. Expect "I lost faith in Bitcoin" kind of threads to slowly start spreading.

It was about time, but still way to go before despair and capitulation.

Too bad my $71ish bid was not filled, I missed a nice and quick profit in the first of the couple epic bull traps we will have before despair and capitulation.

Still, i learnt that playing these traps is risky business, thus there is no point in panic buying if your strategically placed bid did not fill. That would probably lead to a loss, or to a small profit mixed with a lot of suffering. Not worth it.

I learnt its just better to pull that bid and wait for the next strategic point, which IMO will be mid/high $50s. Playing a bounce on the mid $60s may be profitable too, I will try to play it with a smallish amount.

Fun times indeed. Finally fear. Good news, the faster it goes down, the sooner it will go up again. It will be entertaining to see the slaughtering going on in the traps to follow.

Really man, do you think especially Europeans or traders in general give a shit about that "news"?

In any case, what will happen is that now US people will hurry to send their coins to Gox in order to exchange them for fiat and try Gox's new "withdrawal skills"

Well, in February, when they started deploying, their shares were traded at only 0.3BTC. I over negotiated with a couple of members (I wanted to buy at 0.22BTC), and at the end I didnt buy because x3 the IPO price seemed "a tad much" to me.

That was just before the first dividend, but after they deployed the first 6TH/s. in that moment buying was not so risky but still I passed

LOL, MtGox mentions "a bumpy road" in their press release, that made me laugh hard.

Anyhow, I guess these are good news for their US customers.

About price action, it's been very fun indeed. Going quicker than i expected and with no support at all at crucial points.

I had a bid at $71ish, it didn't got filled for a few cents, I'm pulling it as I missed the bounce. Next stop, the $60s. Gotta love the cheap coins.

BTW: Shroomskit, did you sell yet?

This.

And ASICminer did very well for all its shareholders. Its an example of flawless management, other Bitcoin related ventures should learn from them.