Not currentyly though it is something we'll be considering for the future. The bitcoin situation is legally murky right now. The literal interpretation of the law in Iceland seems to imply bitcoin are illegal to transact in. Mining however is not something addressed by current law.
Adding in the currency controls that Iceland has had in place since 2008 makes this more of an issue too. One of my other projects was a political party here in Iceland (the Pirate Party of Iceland) and I'm aware they're at least discussing crypto currencies in committee there, but none of that would get resolved until after summer is over.
While I'm not a big fan of Auroracoin, the airdrop here at least forced the issue and introduced most of the population to the idea of bitcoin and crypto currencies.
Bitpay offers you direct $ payments so you won't have to deal directly with bitcoins. Isn't that helping? Have you checked BIPS.me in addition of bitpay? |
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Sure. Let's have a 0.1 BTC bet. You bet on your desired difficulty at the end of June and I win if it's less and you win if it's more.
If the bitcoin difficulty is more than 300 billion at midnight on June 30, 2015 - I win. Otherwise - you win. Escrow? winner pays? EDIT: accidentally a word So if the difficulty is equal or more than 300 billion you win. If it's less than 300 billion then I win. We have a deal! Winner pays 0.1 BTC to the loser. I will accept any escrow even if for this low amount I don't think it's needed. Just for the record. RoadStress never put up his end of the bet. He seems to have fallen off the face of the earth - maybe trying to get a refund on his SP30 pre-order(s).  That's because I had to leave and didn't have the time to send. You got a PM with the txid for the 0.1 BTC. It was the weekend - i expect roadstress will back up his bet.
personally, I would guess that difficulty on June 30, 2015 will be about 420 Billion. I think we will hit 300 Billion about 1.5 months earlier
You were correct. I was away for the weekend and yes I think that I may lose this bet. I should have pushed for May 31 2015 as deadline. |
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What is your experence of the hash rates reported by the Cgminer API for the SP10 miner?
What could the explaination be when a SP10 miner display 1418 GH/s in the web interface, but connecting to the Cgminer API, the response is 1320 GH/s ("MHS 5s" and "MHS av" around 1320000 all the time).
This The cgminer API computes the rate by values miner gate provides, and I didn't put too much effort into making it 100% correct - it's not trivial to do in our architecture. It`s way less accurate then what you see in the WebUI.
What you see in the pool is the most accurate, but it is not very stable because of the nondeterministic nature of mining.
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Without profit mining is dead. When mining dies, the network dies.
You are wrong. Mining will continue to run even if it will run on red. Just need to find someone to pay for electricity costs. |
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But mining needs to be economically sustainable if the network is going to survive.
This is where you are wrong again. I think that in the future mining will not be economically sustainable and it will run on the red sustained by companies/parties that have an interest in the blockchain security/other features. Just like every website owner has to pay for a webserver which isn't directly economically sustainable, but indirectly, the same can apply to bitcoin mining. I imagine that BitPay affords to pay 100k/year for electricity just to run X number of Th/s or Ph/s without buying the hardware and even if the miners are running on red. |
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The assertion that the network will stop growing after 200-300Ph is a very very bad one. Just because retail customers might not pay $0.50/Gh doesn't mean that manufacturers cannot keep making equipment for their raw costs.
Look at who is mining today and their percentages.
Bitfury - 8-10%
KNCminer - 6%
Antpool - 4%
Cloudhashing / PeerNova - 3%
That is a full 25% of the network from just manufacturers mining. And this is only what we know about.
Do you some how think that when customers stop buying the manufacturers are going to stop producing and mining?
But every hardware manufacturer has some fixed costs which can't go down no matter how cheap is the chip. PSUs, cases, fans, heatsinks etc so the price can't be extremely low. It would be interesting to hear some numbers for the fixed costs per GH/s. I'm thinking that they are around 0.1-0.3$/GH/s for a full system without the chips. |
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oh cmon.. the guy said 2 words, not proving anything and everybody fall for it. wtf spondodude has any knowledge of AM's businesses. wtf does he has to comment on it. wtf doesnt he have better things to do. sounds more desperate than professional.  edit: does FC comment on their overpriced pre-ordered hardware that wont ROI and their thread being over self-moderated about it? No. You need to chill. Receiving no dividends surely heats up people and this thread, but Guy has no reason and no gain from lying about that, but it seems that he has a bit more information than what you as shareholders have. |
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fyi I disagree with the difficulty estimate. I don't trust any site, I do my own calculations based on data from blockchain.info. I'm seeing a current difficulty increase of 23.9% to 16,676,044,930.66.
Current time between blocks is 8.07 mins.
Change is slated to occur around 7:10 ET on 6/29.
M
Bitcoin wisdom is normally spot on and is the most accurate difficulty prediction site I have found, and it's predicting a 30% difficulty increase. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty+1 They have the best difficulty prediction. mdude77 if you don't trust difficulty estimates you shouldn't be in the mining game imo. |
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Hello, I am waiting for refund for last 60 days, any suggestion what to do now?
I don't think there is much to do at this point. You could try contacting the police or some lawyer in Sweden, but it will take time and money and I don't know if it will help. |
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Your whole answer is based on the premise of maximising fiat....
I want to maximise bitcoin
Therefore i ask again
Why buy a machine for 8.5 bitcoins that will likely never return 5 bitcoin (and thats before you take power/hosting costs into account)
Sure, but for the moment bitcoin can't function alone without a link to the fiat no matter how you use it. Unless you just want to horde bitcoins and do nothing with them for at least 5-10 years you must take note of the fiat part. Even when bitcoin will not be linked directly to fiat it will still be linked to products or services which at some point translate into some kind of fiat. I see no problem in just buying bitcoins, but I am sure that you will spend them sometime because you are not part of the top 500 Forbes to afford buying/hording bitcoins and forgetting about them (like most 2009-early 2011 miners did) |
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Beastlymac will PM you to ask you for the address. I think itamidensha should do the same. Last i heard this wasnīt the difficulty discussion thread  However, if spondoolies next chip (I mean the 2nd 28nm chip) should hit the market with a power consumption of 0.2W/GH and low overhead cost when deploying together, you could very well get massive difficulty increases. Does anyone per chance know the window for 16nm chip availability? 16nm should allow (much) more than double the transistor density and lower leakage, while also using lower voltage, so the chips should again be more than 2* more efficient and much cheaper per GH. If this comes to play together with a possible bitcoin price increase (letīs say to 1500$ by April 2015) it isnīt too unlikely that those high difficulty numbers could be reached. At least this discussion just ended, but yeah I think I might lose it considering the 30 June deadline. I should have asked for a 31 May deadline. Back to hardware discussions. |
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Sure. Let's have a 0.1 BTC bet. You bet on your desired difficulty at the end of June and I win if it's less and you win if it's more.
If the bitcoin difficulty is more than 300 billion at midnight on June 30, 2015 - I win. Otherwise - you win. Escrow? winner pays? EDIT: accidentally a word So if the difficulty is equal or more than 300 billion you win. If it's less than 300 billion then I win. We have a deal! Winner pays 0.1 BTC to the loser. I will accept any escrow even if for this low amount I don't think it's needed. |
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Sam Cole are you listening, if you want to clean up your dignity now is your change, otherwise you are proving us that you have no dignity, it is not because I say it, it is your actions that define you.
This has already been proven and it will remain like this. Cheap Sam Cole will never turn towards the customers that helped him to be where he is today. KnC deserves to die just like Avalon did and it's time to move away from this company and from it's lying and deceiving managers. |
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Have you thought about the amount of money needed for last year's network hashrate jump and the money needed for next year's jump? It's a big big difference. Jumping from 150TH/s to 120PH/s is not the same as a jump from 120PH to 3600PH/s. If we assume a 0.5$/GH * 3480PH= 1.74B$ needed for this diff jump. Don't really think that there are so many money that are just waiting to be spent on bitcoin hardware.
Difficulty only needs to increase fivefold before electricity costs eat up half your earnings. So you would only need to add ~500PH or $250M. Sure. Been there done that already, don't worry. By the time the network will add another 500PH I will have better and more efficient equipment. Since I don't see AMs 60PH being sold so fast as you expected I'm sure that it will take some time before adding another 500PH. Good point. At today's BTC price, there's only about half that $1.74B of value to be mined in the coming year.
You can't assume $0.5/GH will be the going hardware rate for a whole year though.
I would be interested in making a small wager about what the difficulty will be at the end of June 2015!
Sure. Let's have a 0.1 BTC bet. You bet on your desired difficulty at the end of June and I win if it's less and you win if it's more. |
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Spon has said themselves that a manufacture had (and is continuing to add) about 40+ PH online recently. Now add in AM who should have by Mid July at the latest, moved 60 PH online (with more chips coming out) (Not sure how much of this is already online) through BTC-Garden, Rockminer, DM, XBtc and AM itself. Then you have Spon and their SP30s, Bitmain and their S3s. This not a cooling off period right now, this is an eye of a very serious storm that is just now getting ready to start back up.
After than we have AM's Gen 4, who knows what crazy shit Spon has in the bag, and a bunch of other companies getting a next Gen ready. And unlike last Gen, the jump to Gen ~4 will be a lot quicker and a lot smoother.
You guys are right that Diff will go up at a very slow pace, but when this time comes, individual miners ran by individual people will not be making money. Spon has made it clear that they aren't targeting the everyday miner either.
I am 100% sure that AM will not bring online 60PH in the next 3 week. That's simply impossible. |
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What am I missing here?
You are missing that difficulty can't rise forever with 15% per increase.I agree, it can't rise forever. The rises will taper off and we'll reach some rough equilibrium of hashrate. It doesn't have to rise forever at 15% though. Only for the next 12 months, or less if there's a couple of bigger leaps early on, or if your miner arrives at the end of Sept. instead of the beginning. This time last year the network hashrate was 150TH/s. Today it's >600x that. You don't think we can see a 30x rise over this coming year with all the manufacturers now on the scene? Have you thought about the amount of money needed for last year's network hashrate jump and the money needed for next year's jump? It's a big big difference. Jumping from 150TH/s to 120PH/s is not the same as a jump from 120PH to 3600PH/s. If we assume a 0.5$/GH * 3480PH= 1.74B$ needed for this diff jump. Don't really think that there are so many money that are just waiting to be spent on bitcoin hardware. |
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2- BFL was located in US. I figured worse case scenario I be dealing with a company in US than China or Europe. Obviously you don't know the US laws very good because you are better off with a company from China or Europe than the ones from US which at this moment have a very "good" record of 100% failed companies out of all bitcoin hardware manufacturers. The US laws clearly protect the lying and scamming businesses, NOT the customers. I think what this forum or similar could do to help is a recommended manufacture link and rated by trusted senior members like your selves. I am sure such link probably exist but perhaps buried or crowded with many posts. I guess clean list of scam alerts for member and or manufacture, that is easy to locate would be very helpful and could reduce number of people falling in this trap. Welcome to the BitcoinTalk forum where it's a Free For All land. While there is logic in what you say it's not Admins/Moderators job to warn you about scams and you should make your own research (which you did). Add Reddit too next time, but a simple look over the Hardware forum and you could've saw the BFL threads. At least it was a lesson learned and next time you will do it better. Here you can find a guide: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=456691.0I am also twitting some of my findings to reporters who apparently interviewing BFL and using appropriate # hashtag to help expose these jackasses whenever I get a chance. As you would see in Josh twitter. However I am doing it based on facts also copying FBI and KC police, in case they actually read the tweets. ArsTechnica had a good article http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/04/digging-for-answers-the-strong-smell-of-fraud-from-one-bitcoin-miner-maker/Twitting to reporters is okish. Better go and tell your story to Sonny's officer who is likely to put him back to jail and maybe Josh Zerlan too for deceiving their customers. |
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I say you diversify and go 50% mining and 50% bitcoins. This way you are making money whether the exchange rate increases or it stays flat.
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What am I missing here?
You are missing that difficulty can't rise forever with 15% per increase.**Originally posted in SP30 group-buy thread ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=575499.msg7499925#msg7499925)** I just returned from a trip to Israel last week and was lucky enough to drop by the Spondoolies-Tech office. All of the staff were all very friendly and I was treated very warmly. Their office is located in a high-tech area of Israel, with their building right next to HP and Intel offices. It is in a clean and secure facility. I was able to meet with Guy (CEO), Kobi (COO), and Gadi (VP Marketing and Sales) - http://www.spondoolies-tech.com/pages/team. I was shown and took a picture of the SP30 unit (without ASICs - http://imgur.com/elpsFfC). Everyone I dealt with was intelligent, competent, and has a very forward-looking view of the company and bitcoin technologies. IMO this seems to be the best team with the best product in the bitcoin mining hardware space. I have been very satisfied with my SP10 units and am looking forward to receiving my SP30 in August. If you dont have one on order yet get it while you can! Side note - a pro tip when visiting the Dead Sea - if you do use goggles while floating/swimming don't take them off until you've reached the showers. Reading this gave me a warm and fuzzy feeling. Thank you! |
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