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2241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 11:54:13 PM
bottom will be $32-$33 and because im in a good day im gonna give you the approx date, july 12-13th

YOUR WELCOME!!!

Too soon. The slide will be longer. There will be at least a couple of epic bull traps in the way down.
2242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 11:47:37 PM
"
Oh I'm still holding coins long term, I never said I was selling did I?

But I am going to buy a lot of new coins soon. Grin

Good enough to be emotionally prepared alone.

The thing is that the only thing worse than not selling when the price is going down is selling at the bottom. I don't want to be that sucker. Tongue Also I don't want to deal with the stress of timing the bottom and the chance of missing it, I prefer just stashing my coins and use fresh fiat to go bottom fishing. Much more relaxing. Wink

As you haven't already input 10% of your annual salary this year alone...



Lol jokes, I don't give a fuck....

Buying during a bubble deflation was a poor choice. Acknowledging the mistake and cutting losses is a good choice if your goal is to buy as many coins as possible with your fiat. Being in denial makes the mistake worst.
2243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 11:11:11 PM
Anyone been moving your orders back yet?

I caught the bottom perfectly this time around - my offer got bought at 75.17 (bitstamp, lowest was 75.11).
Now to watch how it develops. Ready to sell again on very short notice...


$78ish seeks an excellent place to sell those coins, now that you still can
2244  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 10:57:37 PM
Nice trap is expected. Not for the faint of heart.
2245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 10:56:08 PM
Morale is so low that anyone who buys is slandered. My my, bitcoin has changed dramatically in just one month.

No, it didn't change a bit. Seriously.
2246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 10:52:20 PM
Man, we are really hosing through the 70s.

Panic/capit detected. I'm looking forward to the bottom.

Still way to go before despair and capitulation.

Be happy, great buying opportunity approaching, more coins for your fiat, that's a lucky event if you see it with the eyes of a true believer.

Plus, Bitcoin needs to be undervalued before a positive cycle can be resumed consistently. Just remember it was traded at $13 in January, and remember the reasons why it skyrocketed in the first place.
2247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 10:44:26 PM
There was no support whatsoever at $79, that's a pretty big wake up call for the "this might be a correction" crew.

I guess we will have some nice action in the $50s, but the more they'll approach the more the doubt will grow in the market subconscious: will it hold?
2248  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 10:09:55 PM
Here we go $79
2249  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 10:08:28 PM
you smell that? panic is in the air  Cool

i buy now.

You really see panic? I didn't see much panic. But I'm expecting it soonish.
2250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 10:06:17 PM
That beautiful moment in which we touch the 200 daily EMA

2251  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 07:40:41 PM
I'm starting to see bears here as a little dogmatic  Grin
Not a bull myself at the moment, but probably not even a bear ...


If you invested long term, you are obviously bullish long term, and the speculation subforums are kinda useless for you.

If you are trading, its kinda counterproductive being a bull during an obvious bear market. Trading against the trend hurts your portfolio. Basic math.
2252  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 07:34:40 PM
Smallish BID filled at 62ish EUR, sold at 63.9x, +1% profit and now no more catching knives till the '$70s.

The bears in here are so bullish that love to see how their dirty fiat can buy more coins for them, day after day.

We may be coming out from the "return to normal"/denial phase to slowly entering fear. I can start to smell it. People believing (or should we say hoping?) the Winkletards S-1 will take BTC to da moon. Over emotionality on reddit and these subforums. Noobs flaming bears. Noobs starting threads about how they bought over $100 and "will hold forever".

Those guys are usually those that panic sell when they see their investment decimated, and that's usually the very bottom. They will hold a little more and they will be deluded by each and every bull trap.
2253  Local / Hardware y Minería / Re: Vendo Miner de 50 GH/S on: July 03, 2013, 06:53:12 PM

1.- Miente en el título del post
2.- Miente en el título de la venta en eBay
3.- Tergiversa la fecha de entrega
4.- Tergiversa la expectativa de recompensa

Saludos

1. El titulo dice "50 GH/S Bitcoin MINER", le falto aclarar que es una pre order en el titulo, pero en ningun momento está mintiendo. Lo aclara luego en el cuerpo del post.
2. Idem anterior.
3. Dice que BFL planea entregar en Julio, y eso es lo que BFL estuvo diciendo. En todo caso el que brinda informacion errónea sería BFL.
4. Ahí le erró el calculo, son actualmente 35 btc, pero no estoy seguro de qué fecha es la publicacion.


Podrá ser una descripcion demasiado optimista, pero sigo sin ver el supuesto fraude.

Esta bien claro. Hay que evitar que los nuevos en el foro se vean atrapados en una posible estafa.
Sí en un trato viene uno con más experiencia en el tema y te avisa que algo huele mal. Dale las gracia.
Como mínimo intenta ayudar.


Sigo sin ver de qué estafa estaban hablando. Mal negocio es posible, pero estafa ?
Tampoco hay que pasarse de rosca porque sí, solo porque el muchacho queria vender una preorder.





Estafa como tal probablemente no, pero seguro que mala práxis comercial sí. Hay información engañosa por doquier, como lo de hacer las cuentas de lo que generaría la máquina hoy.

Esa info o no la das y que cada uno se responsabilice de informarse o haces unos cálculos posibles, no sueltas ahí un cálculo de retorno potencial en BTC que sabes que no va a ocurrir en ningún caso. Eso es querer ver si algún desinformado paga mas de la cuenta llevado a engaño por unos cálculos que ni entiende.

Normal que la gente se lo haga notar si cuelga el anuncio aquí.
2254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market cycle : where do you think we are ? on: July 03, 2013, 06:43:25 PM
Obviously denial. Fear is coming.
2255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss Twins File to Launch Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Product on: July 03, 2013, 10:09:20 AM
Quote
How do you know that they are not issuing more shares than Bitcoin they hold?
its an etf for goodness sake, they are legally obligated to obtain the bitcoins for the shares they issue else they can't issue the shares.

Its not a weird derivative, its an ETF. ETFs are normal and perfectly OK, otherwise you wouldn't even be able to trade things like volatility and futures (which actually ARE weird derivatives) like a stock.

I don't understand why people get so mad about an ETF. When you (or at least, most people) buy a computer, they don't individually pick out each component they need then build the computer. They buy the computer which comes with all the components in a easy bundle. An ETF is the exact same thing - a bundle that allows the seller to make a bit more money due to the convenience factor - except for securities not physical objects. How is that a scam?

Gee, people here are always going on about the free market except when an even mildly exotic financial instrument gets thrown into the situation they completely freak. The funny part is everybody's perfectly OK with CFDs, which actually are 'fake' or 'paper' bitcoins, but a ETF? FREAK OUT TIME.

+1

I like this guy. No bullshit approach to breaking apart FUD.

FUD? Did anything I wrote caused Fear, Uncertainity and Doubt in you? Well, you are really faint hearted then.

Winkle-evil's Bitcoin ETF is just a laughable attempt at market making. ETFs are a "normal" tool for speculative manipulation, especially ETFs related to physical commodities. JP Morgan has been using its tricks to heavily manipulate the silver market for years. Everybody in silver is bitching about them, but now if the Winkle-evil's do the same thing in BTC everyone cheers them because that will very possibly increase the BTC price in the short term, which is the only thing most of people in here cares about.

The Winkle-evil's shares are just worthless pieces of paper. Nobody sane would believe he is holding any Bitcoins by owning their shares. There's no way to redeem those shares for blockchain BTC, right?

BTW, Kazu says ETFs are a "bundle"... What are the Winkle-evil's bundling together? Nothing. He says that "they are legally obligated" not to scam. Yeah, like everybody else, still these are tools used for fools to be parted with their money on a recurrent basis.

As I said earlier, I won't be touching their toilet paper with a bargepole, but still I believe their eventual success would be bullish for the BTC/USD exchange rate. It would add liquidity for sure, but on the other side also a powerful manipulation tool.
2256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 03, 2013, 10:00:08 AM
I can feel the dump approaching...



2257  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Bear Market is on....Red candles still haunt my dreams on: July 03, 2013, 07:27:01 AM

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

How do you know that this will not just be a correction but that this will be a bubble deflating?

I'm asking as I'm not sure. I would agree that chances are higher for the price to go down over the next half year.

However, I also think there is a smaller but real chance that it won't and we trend higher the coming half year.

You seem very certain this won't happen. I'm wondering what makes you so certain?

Everything points to a bubble deflating and not to a correction. The "correction" case is still remotely possible, but it gets weaker and weaker each day that passes.

I'm not 100% sure about the market, nobody can be. But I know that statistically there are much more chances for the price to go down mid term, than to go up. This is how the post-bubble plays out 99% of the times (and the 1% that didn't it was because it was not a bubble in the first instance), and for those arguing that the run-up from $20ish to $266 was not a bubble I have a lot of counter-arguments (primarily based in common sense and logic) about how we indeed witnessed a speculative mania phase that led to a spectacular bubble.

Now, BTC is following a consistent downwards trend since April, 10th, full of bull traps and sucker rallies, but a consistent downwards trend nevertheless. I just see the trend and I do not fight it.




2258  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss Twins File to Launch Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Product on: July 02, 2013, 07:57:37 PM
A nice scam.

How is it a scam?  Nobody is required to pay more than NAV if they do it is because they believe the asset will rise and thus the premium paid is just the cost of getting into a position now rather than waiting.  Slippage happens on exchanges is that a scam?  Price is currently $91.08 and you believe it will fall.  You can sell 100 BTC @ $91.08 but selling 500 BTC will drop the price to $90.98.  You are getting less than if you sell slowly, then again if you feel the price will fall below $90.98 before you can unload all 500 BTC @ $91.08 the premium paid for fast execution is worth it.

It would be like saying selling BTC for x on MtGox and buying it for y on BTC-E when x > y thus collecting a profit of x-y is a "scam".  It is called abritrage.  The fact that new shares can be issued or redeemed is what keeps the price inline with the underling asset.

For future reference ... just because you don't understand something doesn't make it a scam.  Many people call Bitcoin a scam using the same "logic".

I perfectly understand what an ETF is and how it works.

It's garbage, a worthless piece of paper, one of those "financial products" or "derivatives" that add nothing meaningful to the economy.

If you hold your private keys, you are holding the real thing. You can redeem them everywhere, no matter what. Bitcoins was born to be a trust-free, decentralized system to transfer and store value, and you have no need to trust the Winkle-evils to hold on your Bitcoins. How do you know that they are not issuing more shares than Bitcoin they hold? How do you know they won't file bankruptcy? How do you know you will be able to redeem the value their pieces of paper are supposed to have? How do you know their Bitcoins will not be stolen?

You don't know, you just buy a piece of paper that represents some Bitcoins that supposedly a third party is holding for you. Wow, genius, I guess Satoshi created Bitcoin precisely because he was in deep love with these amazing "financial products" based on promises that spread so much wealth between people. How could we survive without them?

It's just another form of debt, and thus essentially a scam. Everybody should man up and hold onto the real thing and throw away that useless paper issued by some guys who have never done anything in their lives (except suing Facebook, what genius entrepreneurs they are).

That said, these could be bullish news if the retard twins succeed. A scam, but bullish for BTC exchange rate. Just do not forget that these derivative crap has messed up the whole economy. I know for sure I won't touch one of those toilet papers with a bargepole.
2259  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss Twins File to Launch Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Product on: July 02, 2013, 05:12:45 PM
I'm interested to see how they will handle expansion if institutional money moves in and buys out all $20 mill straight away. What is their profit model from all of this?

If the demand drives the price higher than the NAV then the sponsor will deposit an additional basked of 10,000 BTC to the trustee and trustee will issue 50,000 new shares.   The trust has now grown by 10,000 BTC and has 50,000 more shares outstanding so each share still represents 0.2 BTC. Those shares can then be sold on the market thus lowering the market price closer to the NAV.  Note there is an economic incentive here as the newly issued shares only cost 0.2 BTC each but can be sold for more than 0.2 BTC.

Of course institutional investors can do the same thing so if the sponsor doesn't act then someone else will and scoop up that risk free arbitrage.  As an alternative when price exceeds the NAV, an institutional investor can sell 50,000 shares short, deliver the underlying asset to the trustee, collect 50,000 newly issued shares and cover their own short with the new shares.

A nice scam.
2260  Other / Off-topic / Re: Post you BFL refund queue position here! on: July 02, 2013, 04:43:20 PM
No queue, refund requests are being rejected because "all sales are final".

What a despicable bunch of amateurs.

Rampion someone on here in another thread said if you paid by Paypal and complain to them about BFL's treatment they will honour the refund outside of 45 days...

I read that this morning.

I paid by BTC.
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