Yesterday we broke the "higher lows" monthly trend with no resistance whatsoever, but still these forums are bloated by bulls in denial. Fear is nowhere to be seen, which is a bad omen for those hoping in a fast deflation followed by a quick recovery. Still long road ahead before despair and final capitulation.
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I'm not really going to disagree with the practical conclusion of your argument -- I think it's very much possible prices will drop another 50%, and then maybe another time. But I do disagree with the rationale behind your argument, the one that you (and many others here) have been posting a number of times. I'll try to explain what I mean... I'm sure there are loads of "bulls in denial". But I don't think they are the major force that keeps the price relatively high ("relatively high" in the sense that you mentioned yourself: that the correction you hope for doesn't happen fast enough). My own explanation is slightly different: I don't believe in the absolute necessity of a "natural" deflation of a bubble, as an event completely independent of external factors. So I think the reason why the correction/deflation is proceeding relatively slowly is not because of bullish delusion (at least not if the word "bullish" is supposed to carry any real meaning, and not just intended to mean "not completely pessimistic about the prospects of bitcoin"), but because of the largest part of investors in bitcoin not being quite sure where we are in the bitcoin adoption event, and as a result taking a "conservative" approach of deflating the former high, but only slowly. Not sure if I made my point very clear, but what I'm saying is: price will continue to go down if nothing happens, simply because the market will take it as a sign that we're still in a very early stage of the adoption event. But I also believe that (a) there is no deep psychological motivation to let the bubble "deflate all the way before we can go up again". If there is a big enough event that signals we are further into the adoption than previously thought, the price will appreciate from whereever we are at the moment. And, (b), that what constitutes a "big enough event" to signal that is rather unclear. Could be that it needs to be of the size of amazon.com switching to btc entirely, could be that it's enough that google play suddenly accepts btc besides USD. Very good points. My position is that different bubble phases are just a description of recurrent market psychology, and BTC is not different in that sense. Of course I agree with your final assumption - if a "big enough event" happens, price will just raise from that moment. But IMO a "big enough event" is not yet to be seen on the short term horizon. I would discard amazon.com switching to BTC (I cannot imagine Paypal supporting a "Paypal killer"), and I don't see Google play accepting BTC. I think its much more likely that in the mid term (+6 months) big wall street players launch BTC trusts and other derivatives "a la Winklevoss", which would trigger bigger adoption between mainstream speculators. I also think it is more likely for a big wall street player to buy MtGox or just to create its own BTC exchange, than Amazon or Google embracing BTC. These two companies like to be "in control" and like to "centralize", thus Bitcoin is kinda a dead end for both, despite of what their CEOs might say publicly. |
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I have only been involved with BTC since April. In those short few months one thing I have learned about BTC is that "time" is not an issue when it comes to BTC. It can move up or down very quickly in a relatively short time period! So "it's going to take some time to reverse" I guess if you are thinking about hours instead of days, months or years!
Then perhaps it's time to look at a long time chart to remove some of that bubble period bias. It took 1.5 years to go above 32 again. It took 1 year to go above 10 again, briefly.  Absolutely right. But it seems to me that there are a lot of lovers of get-rich-quick schemes. Even if BTC was not to reach ATH again ($266) in 2 years from now, that's fast from an investment point of view. I guess everybody would buy something that costs $1 today and $4 in 2 years. |
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The danger to Bitcoin from a significant fall now comes from the damage that will be done to its reputation - all those new entrants who have signed up for thousand dollar ASIC machines will face real losses with little or no scope of returns if BTC stabilises at $20-30, pre-order refund requests will sky rocket and companies will go bust as the clamour for refunds mounts and new orders dry up. Lots of people (particularly governmental types) will shout fraud and the broader adoption of bitcoin will be irreparably damaged as the conventional press jumps on the beat up bitcoin bandwagon.
Yes we can argue that people should not invest if they cannot afford to lose, speculative markets, unproven technology and all that jazz - but the emotional damage will be done. Once a dog stock is declared a dog stock it never really loses that moniker.
That's ridiculous. $20-$30 still makes Bitcoin an excellent investment - did you know that it was traded at $13 in January? Then, everything you describe already happened in 2011. Mining bubble that hurt a lot of miners that were forced to shut their rigs off because they couldn't pay for the electricity costs, doom and gloom everywhere, "Bitcoin is a Ponzi and Satoshi is its very own Madoff" posts & articles, "if you are not out, get out" screams, hyper negative media cycle ( "The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin", Wired), painful bubble deflation from $32 to $1.98 (Nov 2011), hacks, scams, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. So... What? Bitcoin is just a publicly traded asset very prone to speculation and boom and bust cycles because of its design. "The emotional damage will be done"... You should know that we've already been there, we've already seen that, and nothing happened. Bitcoin raised stronger than before, because "the emotional damage" fades away as quick as the euphoria spread during the hype cycle. "Once a dog stock is declared a dog stock it never really loses that moniker."?? And what happened in 2011? Happened that those who believed in the CRAP you just wrote sold for good, and missed the train. So much fail in these forums. |
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does anyone know how long it will take the SEC to approve this and have them traded publicly? Is this done fast or does it take weeks/months?
weeks/month would be "fast". |
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Anybody realized the chart the Winklevoss are looking to in the pic below? That seems April, big crash ongoing   |
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Regulation... LOL BTW, look at how screwed up is that chart, big crash ongoing |
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Until USD withdrawals are possible again I don't believe this all means much, it could all be a temporary dip until withdrawals and confidence are restored. I don't care about your wish for a fast deflation, bull in denial or not I see this is a great buying opportunity.  If you believe in the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin (which 99% of us do, that's why we post on bitcointalk.org) a downtrend is always a great buying opportunity. Still not good enough for me. I will start buying incremental quantities (less when its higher, more when its lower) starting from $82ish, where I placed my first mini-bid. |
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TL;DR -> people is cheering ASICMiner deployment plan because they are heavily invested in it.
So far, ASICMiner managed flawlessy their business - taken into consideration how good they managed their venture so far, you can be quite sure they won't do any stupid thing to destroy their own investment (like owning a too high % of the network).
Thus, this thread is mostly FUD fueled by people who missed the AM train.
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this looks like an incredibly smart way to sell out of a lumpy position in bitcoin while avoiding the illiquidity of mtgox and the limited size of the order book. With daily volumes on gox of what 50K? there is no way they could sell their bitcoin holdings in a reasonable timescale on that market without seriously impacting the price.
By launching an ETF they ideally attract new capital into the market to hold these bitcoin, the ease of ownership and the ability to buy via brokerage accounts makes this a far simpler method for individuals to acquire bitcoin holdings than setting up a wallet and going through all the fuss of creating an account at one of the exchanges and then waiting days/weeks for the FIAT to move to the right place so that you can actually buy the bitcoin. If they can parley the ETF into a BTC lending business as well then they can probably earn sufficient additional BTC to make dividend payments viable on the ETF as well.
Hell the right sort of ETF might even work for pensions and other tax efficient savings. Who knows what 1% of your pension pot in BTC might be worth in 20years.
If they can get the ETF off the ground it has the potential to make BTC a real investment option for the general public - which could provide a real impetus to drive the price of bitcoin up. But if this ETF fails and those BTC have to be sold on the exchanges because the twins choose to sell their excess BTC, well then hitting the exchanges in 100,000 bitcoin? - That's going to put a serious dent in the price.
I think you read too much in this move. Its just a way for the Winklevoss to profit, while trying to become some kind of "market makers" supported by their toilet paper ETFs, like JPMorgan does in the silver market for example. |
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It's incredible how people have been attacking bears with the mindset of them being traitors or something. Definitely still in denial judging by that.
Well, that's the "sound of the butthurt". Just check the registry dates of those bitterly criticizing bearish analysis, just an example: Name: ShroomsKit
Posts: 460
Activity: 98
Position: Full Member
Date Registered: April 08, 2013, 03:13:50 PM
Last Active: Today at 06:02:43 AM I would give 60% that we will cross $150 today. At any rate the support in $135ish will hold.
Would be confident to buy now but no need I actually OTC bought BTC100 @146, little bit dear but did not want to sell for such a small gain...
You're the only person in this section who's predictions i take seriously  Oooops. That hurt. |
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You're not going to get hashes.
Thankfully governments are good for one thing, and that's honoring contracts. OK, you will get your 10GH/s (sorry, 9GH/s after CH's commission), for which you paid $1,000, and you will get 3 BTC as a return in the first year. Good job. |
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Yesterday we broke the "higher lows" monthly trend with no resistance whatsoever, but still these forums are bloated by bulls in denial. Fear is nowhere to be seen, which is a bad omen for those hoping in a fast deflation followed by a quick recovery. Still long road ahead before despair and final capitulation. BTC is currently traded below the daily 10, 21 and 50 MAs. The daily 200MA, which lays at $80ish ATM, will be tested soon. Those will be interesting times indeed.  |
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It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.
How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?
I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that). Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011. However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that. Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high. Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial. Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish +1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction? Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold. |
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Ok great. Now the question becomes (at least in the medium to short term): Do the Winklevoss dudes use this as a way of selling their Bitcoins with flare, or are they actually buying new bitcoins to finance this?
My guess (just a guess) is the reason for acquiring their 200,000 BTC quietly and without a splash last summer was specifically for this or something like it. There is a lot of regulatory headache to launch an ETF. If one wanted to simply divest there are easier, quicker, and cheaper ways to do it. I wouldn't expect them to do any panic buying driving up the price prior to an IPO though. Since a S-1 is a public document my guess is they made sure to have the necessary BTC before filing the S-1. Exactly my thoughts. Serious fun ahead. |
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How, we have no influence on him now. We let him issue 400,000 shares and value his company at $140m. We gave him $57m of capital, we bought $m's of hardware from him at a 95% markup, we [BFL] let him take such a large part of the network that no one can stop him.
We could raise $1b tomorrow and we wouldn't be able to catch him for 2 years, by which point the damage is done.
We lost the game, the greedy man ruined it for us all.
Actually, he issued 200,000 shares, which raised a little above $100K at the time (approximately one year ago). But the company has grown since then. I agree that BFL's delays have benefited ASICMINER, but that can hardly be blamed on ASICMINER. THIS. People spits figures without even reading the relevant posts on beforehand. ASICminer has been a perfect example of flawless management in a 100% underground Bitcoin operation... For the IPO investors it has been the best investment in the Bitcoin world up to date, hands off. |
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It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.
How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?
I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that). Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011. However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that. Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high. Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial. Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish |
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 doesn't look like it's correct. It doesn't show up on Bitcoinity neither... Still, look at derpinheimer screenshot, maybe a bug of the tool he was using to follow the market? Dumping 2k coins on Campbx is too retarded to be true, they would be selling all of them for like $50k, LOL |
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Would anyone be surprised to learn that the Winklevoss twins were almost solely responsible for pumping Bitcoin from single to triple digits with bid-walls?
No more surprised than to hear that they now want to cash out and realise that they can't Wouldn't it make more sense to take cash from the IPO to manipulate the price further before cashing out? They might have enough cash and coins to drive the price up and down at will. Yes, I already mentioned that, it's called propping up and it leads to insane volatility or more specifically flash crashes with crazy rallies in between. That's what you get when you deal with useless paper assets. JP Morgan has been manipulating the silver market with their ETFs for ages. It would be fan if the twins started issuing derivative scams like there's no tomorrow, ending up distributing paper Bitcoins worth BTC22M in total |
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 GG, campBx now at $0.00 Someone dumped 2k coins there all the way to 0. Poor guy probably thought there was more depth. Fuck, really? How can there be someone so retarded? Dumping 2k coins on campbx is like dumping 400k coins at Gox, who is so clueless to that? The guy that took the price to $0 at campbx just burnt a huge pile of money. And he did a very nice favor to all those that had low bids placed. Imagine how happy is the guy that had a 500 coin bid at $0.5, and never dreamt of it being filled... Well, it was filled |
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Going through $86 like a hot knife through butter.
Despair and capitulation are unavoidable. The sooner they arrive, the sooner BTC will resume a growth trend.
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