Only people who preorder will ever make money.
If there was a miner being sold that you could get right now and it was profitable, everyone would buy it, difficulty would rise and it would no longer be profitable.
Only people who take a risk and preorder will ever have a chance of making a profit from mining.
I think it's great that you are telling everyone not to pre-order. Thats means more for me!
It's a gamble, some pre-orders have worked out, some haven't
Pre-orders that were good ideas:
- Avalon Batch 1
- Early Jalapenos
- Avalon batch 2
Bad ideas:
- pretty much anything else from BFL
- Avalon batch 3
- probably Avalon chips, but too early to tell
don't forget scam pre-orders  What I think we need is some kind of community authenticated pre-order product check in order to at least set a % of risk as to persons Identity as well as other facts. However unrealistic to expect, we have lacked transparency with respects manufactures claims. Thus far Bitfury has raised the bar for ASIC details proven prior to taking pre-orders.. |
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.......
Those that were here when we moved from CPU to GPU technology know that the faster the network difficulty goes up the longer it takes to normalize at the ideal 6 blocks and hour..
What does it mean when you say "the longer it takes to normalize" ? Even if new hardware being added to the network was reduced the variance involved with mining does not immediately normalize at the next difficulty change. The network difficulty increase may slow down but we noticed that even at 6 blocks an hour that the network would still increase next difficulty target but at a noticeably lower %. Also do not forget that existing hardware lifespan/operating costs will introduce psychological factors when miners evaluate their exposure in this market segment. difficulty increase of 35% every 10 days from this point on Stopped reading there. Everything else is just bullshit. @dogie This is an exercise in awareness. It is true that this is a free market 24/7. So I expect a slowdown however it would be foolish to not consider the possibility on how the network difficulty will look in the next 2 months if things continue as they are. I have posted the results at 20% 12 day target. If you have a Gmail account you can copy the form using the chrome browser and enter the average increase rate for the year of 18.6% 13 day target and see the historical norm for the year. You will see that so far the prices asked for ASIC hardware makes buying BTC at $100 USD a better option. Remember that these ASIC's are not like GPU's in respects resale value. |
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Due to popular demand I have included the numbers at 20% 12 day network difficulty increase. At this time the yearly average for network difficulty increase is 18.6% and expected to go up by years end. Again at what point does the rate of increase slow down is pure speculation. However as for the argument of BTC vs Hardware seems to win if you.... Consider the possibility that the value of BTC to USD goes up/down in value by say October? For those that mine and dump then BTC is your option. For those that mine and hold and do not mind operating at a cost/loss then hardware is your option. Depending on what you chose you would end up with "less" and a "loss" of potential profit if you went exclusively BTC. That is why its important to not "go big or go home" with one option or another. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdGpIcjhNaDdUQmlZSXVtRnNVSW9GM0E&usp=sharingAvalon BFL KNC Bitfury |
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Really more than 3 Billion difficulty by end of the year?  wtf u smoking man?  How about some realistic calculations?  This is just to show that come the end of December 2013 present prices are unsustainable at a 35% network difficulty increase. Also for those that speculate the value of BTC is in the $1000's then getting BTC rather then hardware is a solid bet. So this is a projected network difficulty if it would continue to go up 35% every 10 days. The question still remains as to the total of "pre-order" hardware that has yet to hit the network. Those that were here when we moved from CPU to GPU technology know that the faster the network difficulty goes up the longer it takes to normalize at the ideal 6 blocks and hour.. |
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Maybe a third sub-sub-wave will hit 110, but I doubt it will eat the wall.
Anyway, it's 3.30 am and I have to go to sleep, so I'll miss the action (if any).
And now it starts   |
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Check http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/If you have one now - It pays off in a few months ... then electricity costs come back to bit you. We all need BTC/fiat to go up of we're losing money. Seems to me the minings days are behind us and the trading and business development days are upon us. Sorry, the calculator has a bug. Wait til tomorrow and run the same thing. you will see nothing but red for BFL units. (Wait for the next difficulty change then look again) Tomorrow after the diff increase select any BFL product and chose SEPTEMBER delivery. You'll see that you will never recover your money You can check out the details posted here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=273264.msg2929060#msg2929060 |
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Now, finally, intelligent individuals are drawing the line in the sand regarding the pre-order model.
And so that means: precisely, nothing. For every one on this forum who will not pre-order any longer, there are dozens who will.
They will, patiently or stridently, tell you why you're deluded. That there is no other model than pre-order which will work. They will go ahead an pre-order the equipment as it appears, when it appears, for the price which is asked.
The fascinating thing is: they're not all shills.
I posted details as to the return on the ASIC hardware form BFL, KNC, Bitfury at present difficulty % increase and it shows buying BTC at $100 is better then getting these units at these prices. That shows there will be no more pre-order options for new projects in the works. Next day or no way. Well come October anyway Here is the post link. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=273264.msg2929060#msg2929060 |
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THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT: Please use the following link when you make new order. If I get 10 orders to get a free unit, then I will give you 8% x how many units you bought with the link. Why would you buy it without clicking my link? It doesn't make sense, and 8% means you make waaay more than the 1btc or whatever other people are offering. Lets work together and just get everyone to use this link when buying. You advertise this link and we can get closer to 10 sooner and surely. https://www.kncminer.com Here is an updated numbers on network difficulty increase of 35% every 10 days from this point on. It shows buying BTC at $100 is a viable option with out the issues. Best case perhaps?   |
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Do you have the thermal flow diagram (or the equations) for ventilation?
I had this same debate with BFL about 3-4 months ago, where I stated there were several problems with the case specifically air flow and thermal loss. They weren't addressed and look at the problems now...
If you need someone to run the equations I'd only be too willing to help.
Nope, dont have this, for this prototypes i cant change anything anymore, but Iam very open to your support for a finsihed design with a possible reselling partner! Thanks man Foofighter @kelticfox can you post what you found on the BFL case designs so we can see your take on the airflow and thermal loss? Would be nice to know Thanks |
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Just a 'somewhat' on topic aside ... I have a BitBurner XX with 20 Avalon chips in it. It runs at 400Mhz with about 1.4% HW BTB 0: 48/ 48C 1223mV | 10.86G/7.669Gh/s | A:149590 R:748 HW:2151 WU:108.6/m
24hrs runtime I put it up to 450MHz and it was about 50%  but appropriate cooling would have probably resolved that also.  So indeed the chips can do 450MHz Using my numbers above: (7.669 / 20) * 240 = 92GH/s at 400MHz Nice work Kano! |
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In addition, there is 2 more chip designs in the pipeline, we have decided to proceed developing Gen3 and Gen4 in parallel due to the long R&D time of low processor nodes, both of these will be a Full Custom ASIC design. http://www.avalon-asics.com/I as well as many others are Glad to see the team involved with the Avalon Project is coping well with the trials and tribulations that come with territory. Looking forward to having these further decentralize hardware options become available for the Bitcoin network mining participants. Thank you for the update. Best wishes to your future success. ~Sitarow |
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Same problem.  I will keep clicking it I guess edit: Got through after about 30 clicks. Now I have 15 minutes, which isn't enough time to get to my offsite wallet. Sigh. I'll have to do this in a bit. Should be worth the effort |
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This thread is totally off-track, but to add to this bitcoin/currency thing.
BitCoin is both a currency and a currency/security.
If it can be used to purchase physical and/or digital goods => currency.
If it can be traded against other securities, much like USD, JPY, etc. => currency/security (think Forex).
So it plays by all the same rules. The "fuzzy" area is where value comes from. For example, the IRS published a document saying that mining can be considered income for taxable reasons, but the what if's are bigger than the answers. If I mine and don't move it beyond my BTC wallet, what have I earned? If I am going to be taxed, is it only on BTC I have exchanged for fiat? If I am going to be taxed, what is the value for taxation (Gox, BTC-E, BitStamp, etc.)?
No gov't body has clear answers until the point you move BTC to fiat or exchange it for goods that have a defined value, then it has a definite "value". If I exchange 50BTC at $10 each, I can be taxed on $500. If I exchange 50BTC at $1000 each, first up I'm very happy, but second I can be taxed on $50,000.
However Germany has set a solid stance on how BTC investments should be taxed. |
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Done.  intron Looking forward to seeing this USB solution in the general public's hands Keep up the great work. |
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Once, just once, it would be nice to have someone come and not say to us: "We're the biggest thing since sliced bread, and we'll be kicking it all off, in just two {weeks, months, shakes of lambs tail} or so."
Say and think what you want about Bill Gates, but when they rolled out Windows 95, he had the Rolling Stones there to sing "Start It Up," they clicked the button in the corner, and it did.
Maybe, someday soon...
I'm not being funny, but these days you'd definitely have to pre-order for the Rolling Stones!! They do not come cheap. I posted this in this thread. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=267552.msg2885140#msg2885140The question is would it not be prudent to purchase BTC rather then use this service at this price?  The details below is for the advertised 10TH Aug option. The following spreadsheet projects the network difficulty increase is constant at 20% or every 12 days and BTC value stays at $100USD each BTC. That translates to less then 470BTC for the product "profitability".  |
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Cointerra, a well-funded startup of highly experienced ASIC designers, is pleased to announce that we are developing a high performance, low power and low cost 28nm ASIC which is expected to arrive in Q4 2013. To learn more about Cointerra and to sign up for regular updates please visit our website: www.cointerra.com and follow us on Twitter @cointerra. Coinlab has anything to do with this? At the advertised price for 10TH if network difficulty increase is constant at 20% or every 12 days and BTC value stays at $100USD each BTC. Would be better to purchase BTC? |
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