BFL has an incredible number of advertisements, I've heard them talked about on various technical podcasts, they have a 'decent' site, the FPGA history and they are one of only a few companies shipping products (that I know of)... don't get me wrong, I'm seriously pissed about my back ordered products and have all but written off my investment; my point is that if you get into asic mining after doing only a little research, it's easy to believe the BFL hype.
That said, the people who are coming in now and dropping $5k on a pre-order, without doing proper research must have money to burn! I will be shocked if they make it another two years before getting sued for what little they will be worth. I just hope I get SOMETHING from them before they fold.
An evil person (Like PG) would hope that they receive lots of transfers, then fold. The only thing that changed was BFL releasing a generic video card image with their logo embedded along with a promise to ship at some point in the future. The only thing actually happening (IMO), is that some genius at BFL figured out how to use a promise to whisk PayPal and CC's companies oversight away from it's customers money. Putting BFL firmly in control of where money flows. Frankly, I don't see them escaping the lawsuits...and I don't see why anyone would wait until Sep 30th to even start. |
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I am one of the still relatively rare happy BFL customers who received my order within only 9 months of ordering. Watching the difficulty with which BFL developed the product and after experiencing the many levels of frustration that BFL unleashed, I am very reluctant to buy the new product. Maybe I'm a fool and when people are mining in early 2014 with these devices I'll be green with jealousy, but in the meantime I can live without the stress of potentially losing my money. Despite BFL already having experience with ASICs, I feel moving to a new process and new board design will make it unlikely the product will ship any time during 2013.
No credit card option and therefore no protection from BFL going under before they can ship makes the deal untenable.
Damn, one of the customers got away from the rings of fire we asked him to hop through. Someone give me a tranquil dart to medicate him. |
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The thing that made me laugh the most (I laughed several time while reading their sales pitch for Monarch) was the GigaVPS quote / Avatar.  I also found that hilarious. As if that would somehow add to the whole thing rather than take away from the credibility. |
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Oh man, NO, not fraud and theft!!! I was hoping it was like a triple homicide or something. You know, a crime of passion - a one time deal. Usually guys who commit fraud don't stop. Man....add another red flag.
Or maybe he learned his lesson.....
Isn't it apparent by now that Sonny has hired good, honest and hard working people to help run and manage his company? When have they ever lied or twisted words to fit a forced conclusion about their products? |
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Who exactly is Sonny? Don't tell me he's the founder or the CEO. It Explains why management tolerated Josh.
What did sonny do exactly to get in trouble?
you should continue here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110868.0btw PL is expert about Sonny.) I think you mean PG, PL doesn't know jack about Sonny. |
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Ponzi scheme for sure
It's starting to resemble a Ponzi scheme. They need new orders to get the old ones out. I'm hoping I'm not a the tail end of the Ponzi scheme. Man this sucks. And today I found out from the BFL chat room that BFL is in fact managed by convicted criminals. I didn't verify this which is why I left it out of the OP but nobody objected when this was brought up so it may be true. One this is for sure, BFL was the top dog in this sector for the last 2 years and they were behaving arrogant, rude and cruel at times and their customers are not their priority - shipping bulk chips next month proves that if their attitude towards disgruntled customers and jacking their prices by nearly double didn't. They were behaving like a monopoly much too soon and maybe now they see with all the new competition that future profits won't be as juicy as they have been and not to mention everyone hates them. Given Their shitty attitude and reputation towards their customers anything is possible with these guys. I'm surprised, Vlad, that you weren't aware of Sonny Vleisides background. Who exactly is Sonny? Don't tell me he's the founder or the CEO. It Explains why management tolerated Josh. What did sonny do exactly to get in trouble? Ah, that might explain why when I brought it to managements attention to get him fired he started balking and accusing me of stalking or some other bullshit claim. If we assert to BFL upper management that he is indeed costing the other members money by damaging BFL's reputation....then the others at the company would actually care.... Josh sure seemed to care back when I was but a noob on these forums with only 10 posts. Interesting theory. |
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The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% per month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of 60%/mo exponential growth starting today is possible. In the past, we saw 18 months of 100%/mo growth between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011. However nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable. My estimate from ASIC market research is somewhere between 40 and 60%, but nobody knows precisely. I'd like to see what happens, how our views change, etc. when the price hits $250-$500 per BTC... The price of BTC is irrelevant in making an investment decision between moving your capital to (1) BTC, or (2) mining equipment. This has been explained many times. If BTC gains value both choices bring more returns. If BTC loses value both choices bring less returns. The question is which one will make you end up with more BTC at the end. So the only part of the equation to take into account is how much does the mining equipment cost today (in BTC), and how much BTC it could mine in the future. Pretty much. |
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at least there I can use paypal to get my money back in 45 days when it doesnt ship  Hmm Good point. I think you just invented a new hedging strategy that only screws re-sellers and not BFL. Watch, everyone will start doing this now. |
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this thread is getting ugly..... why does no one factor in a bitcoin price increase and only a difficulty increase on the charts....
I did, 5% per month. |
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No one cares for your pre-order nonsense, come back when you have something in hand and ready to ship.
We have received hundreds of emails inquiring about our prices. So, some people seem to care. Therefore we are releasing the prices sooner than planned. ...and this has nothing to do with x-crowd, or hashfast also tying their hardest to lock people in all ironically at the exact same time, right now, for the exact same period of time, till January?  Gee, I wonder what that is about?  See Link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276692.msg2955644#msg2955644 |
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Alright, you got me you cybersleuths. It was a yeti.
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I created my own stats. I am pretty sure Genesis isn't making that good a prediction. But go ahead, if you are sure about it, you and the others sink all your money into 400Gh/s miners. In January 2014, we can talk about this again and compare graphs. Lets see who really was closer to the real numbers. i think the 52% increase in difficulty per month is closer to the target vs that 60% number someone else had but, this is assuming you actually get it in january 2014 (not very likely). it's also assuming static price for bitcoins (could happen). i go with coherent logix! My numbers are very conservative. If you click this link: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/033d84b75bYou will notice the rate of change over the last couple of months according to genesis block (without the fudged number by the member quoted above). This is without all the 400Gh/s ASICs or the BFL backlog, nor Avalon, nor HashFast, etc. It won't take a genius alot of time to figure out when I tap in 60% per month that I am being extremely generous with the calc. I figure it will even out the error of dips and spikes in the rate increase.   |
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At 2BTC that's $113 per GH/s which is a total joke.
Even 1BTC you would be lucky to get any ROI by the time it ships. It needs to sell for less than 1BTC if it can't then don't start the project.
And this is the first signs of what will happen to NON-USB ASIC's in October or November 2013. Companies will figure out that their initial designs can't easily overcome pricing restrictions. So they will have to redesign Gen2.1 to be more massively parallel to keep outrunning the difficulty by any meaningful timeframe. (You heard it here first! Expect many companies to pre-plan, adapt to changing market conditions, or utterly fail and take your money/BTC with them. Spend wisely.) |
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0.5BTC/Gh/s in October?
Might be a fun toy ~1btc, but anyone paying 100BTC would be taking a huge risk in their ability to resell them for a profit, and they certainly wouldn't be very worthwhile to use in a big mining op.
Again, a company making a mistake on an unsellable product. The USB stick market is going to need to be profitable to be sellable. Right now these are put in a dollar and get back 25 cents. |
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Just bought 3 with a 25% discount voucher and the profits I made from my 3 x 60GH BFL SC Singles.
Wow, you mean preordered, right? Anyway, good luck, seems it might be new form of gambling. Congrats on throwing away money: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/537ce3e3de |
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bfl could gain a bit credibility (if is still possible ) only if they have blades ready to ship (impossible) i would like to know how many ppl trust them at this point and still submit preorders Lots of people are upgrading out of desperation cause they know their gen1 units will take a long time to get so why not try for gen2 and that way they'll get a double in speed and lower electricity bill. So a lot of mini rig and singles customers will upgrade. That helps BFL Cause they get a fat cash infusion and also cause it will help clear the backlog. More like the customers are breaking down their doors with PayPal and CC's. They are probably getting mad cash flowing out the door and the only way to stop the mad dash of customers taking their money from the piggy bank is to entice them into yet another pipe dream. All Speculation, of course. A) To get them to commit to a different product. B) To remove PayPal and CC's from the equation. C) To provide PayPal and CC's a valid reason why the money should not be removed from their hands so they start winning Chargeback cases rather than getting screwed each time. (Customer will provide the means to do this by "Transferring their order") The 10% fee to "Transfer" their order is probably just their current projected losses. In effect the customers are giving them that freebie through a transfer...and not a straight forward purchase. So word to the wise, rip the money from their hands first to prevent losing 10% of that cash in your hand. D) It's basically an admittance (IMO) that they won't meet their target date of Sep 30th. 2013. They need to seriously reduce their exposure to lawsuits and liability. This is a way of doing so (IMO). E) All of the above. |
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Perhaps as a community we should all start talking about manipulating the BTC difficulty (if it were possible). Possibly with pool operators assisting in the effort.
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I created my own stats. I am pretty sure Genesis isn't making that good a prediction. But go ahead, if you are sure about it, you and the others sink all your money into 400Gh/s miners. In January 2014, we can talk about this again and compare graphs. Lets see who really was closer to the real numbers. ====================== Either way my friend, you are already locked in. You can't get a refund even if you wanted to from BFL. If the others want to spend $$$ and BTC on hedges I have no problems with it. There is always a finite supply of either in this community. If the companies take it all in and they come out to have a non-workable business model, well its your cash, not mine. You won't get to spend it twice. (I hope) Edit: I would also like to say that even my Avalon running at a significant fraction of 100Gh/s isn't producing very much. Would I be surprised if in January it it barely covering the electricity costs? No? What if I multiply that pittance by 6x? Would it still be worth it by then? That is exactly the package you have got yourself handcuffed to. You are welcome. :p |
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Lets all give up mining BTC then! This forum is going to be very boring.  Ah. So you don't care about math or mining. No wonder you are seemingly very positive. Seriously, why are you here? Do you get some kind of perverse pleasure from pooping in the punchbowl? You offer nothing but endless amounts of negativity. Maybe I'm a masochist but I've had you on "ignore" several times but have felt compelled to see if you are offering anything else to the community but FUD. Back to ignore... after I read your next few agonizing posts. FUD huh? Such FUD that apparently it lowered prices and people couldn't resell at their previous price points. Perhaps such powerful FUD that even current reality reinforces the numbers...then again...like I said. If the others ship in quantity (Avalon, BitFury, BFL, et al; with 400Gh/s miners....) The numbers may not match up towards January. I might need to use a steeper median curve.... ================= Perhaps that is why you have not seen me mentioning anything about buying miners. I don't know about you, but I am waiting and seeing what develops. If the chart is accurate towards the future...the current 400Gh/s miner will probably experience a hell of a wallop in price. |
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