BFL announces 28nm 600GH/S blade for $4680

[Micon]

Fool me twice, shame on Josh Zerlan.

This company is clearly circling the drain. 

lolz at anyone trusting them for new-new ASICs. 

I will enjoy watching it die.

[1713497422]

1713497422

[1713497422]

1713497422

[CoinHoarder]

Jesus,

The ASIC wars are just beginning, it's going to get nasty, real nasty! Who can do it cheaper and faster? It's going to be really interesting because they have to do that somehow without pissing off their original customers, whom  have paid more.

I think we'll see Cointerra and xCrowd come in a few days/weeks with an even better Gh/$ device.

Just insanity.

Buy 80 Gh for 100 BTC in April 2013.

Buy 600 Gh for 60 BTC in August 2013.  

[zvs]

So this is your ROI if you got 600GH/s RIGHT NOW. As in, it is right next to you and turned on humming away creating BTC.

http://s21.postimg.org/ahbpwkjd3/2013_08_18_002223.png

It is safe to say that BFL better stop shipping, as should Avalon, BitFury and lots of others. This may turn out worse than the chart shows.

Cherry-pick your stats much?

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/557dff2f2a

I created my own stats. I am pretty sure Genesis isn't making that good a prediction.

But go ahead, if you are sure about it, you and the others sink all your money into 400Gh/s miners.

In January 2014, we can talk about this again and compare graphs. Lets see who really was closer to the real numbers.

i think the 52% increase in difficulty per month is closer to the target vs that 60% number someone else had

but, this is assuming you actually get it in january 2014 (not very likely).  it's also assuming static price for bitcoins (could happen).

i go with coherent logix!

[jhansen858]

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

100th with 50% increase each retarget
150th added 50th
225th added 75th
337th added 112th
506th added 169th
759th added 253th
1139th added 380th
1708th added 569th

how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

[mrb]

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
[...]
how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% per month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of 60%/mo exponential growth starting today is possible. In the past, we saw 18 months of 100%/mo growth between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable. My estimate from ASIC market research is somewhere between 40 and 60%, but nobody knows precisely.

[Ytterbium]

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
[...]
how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% every month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of exponential growth starting today is realistic. In the past, we saw a 100% growth per month for 18 contiguous months between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However I think nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Basically, assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable.

Well, if the Monarch is unprofitable, then so will all other mining gear currently being sold. So lets they just ship really late instead.

[dudeofthestick]

http://www.butterflylabs.com/monarch/

Will

So much lie on this webpage. I don't know where to start.

http://www.butterflylabs.com/management/ is even more funny.

No CEO???

[2GOOD]

Tape out August 2013
November/December delivery

delivery .... what year 

[xstr8guy]

So this is your ROI if you got 600GH/s RIGHT NOW. As in, it is right next to you and turned on humming away creating BTC.

http://s21.postimg.org/ahbpwkjd3/2013_08_18_002223.png

It is safe to say that BFL better stop shipping, as should Avalon, BitFury and lots of others. This may turn out worse than the chart shows.

Cherry-pick your stats much?

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/557dff2f2a

Who is cherrypicking stats?
Your figure would need for the diff increase to be under 25% per jump.
That is not the fact.


Try plugging in 82%  PER MONTH   
1+35%+35%=1.8225

That is the current reality.

You were getting fucked in the exit orifice before, now you poured sand in the vaselene.

You are definately a masochist.

No doubt that difficulty will increase a massive amount but percentage-wise the increase will be smaller as we move beyond the next few months.  Think about that for a moment and it might make sense.

[xstr8guy]

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

100th with 50% increase each retarget
150th added 50th
225th added 75th
337th added 112th
506th added 169th
759th added 253th
1139th added 380th
1708th added 569th

how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

Thank you for saying this!  No one seems to understand this concept at all.

[Bicknellski]

These aren't the cards we're looking for.  You can go about your business.  Move along.

[Its About Sharing]

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
[...]
how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% per month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of 60%/mo exponential growth starting today is possible. In the past, we saw 18 months of 100%/mo growth between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable. My estimate from ASIC market research is somewhere between 40 and 60%, but nobody knows precisely.

I'd like to see what happens, how our views change, etc. when the price hits $250-$500 per BTC...

Not saying we go that high anytime soon, but I have a feeling we are going up and the mining industry are partially behind it. 

[erk]

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

100th with 50% increase each retarget
150th added 50th
225th added 75th
337th added 112th
506th added 169th
759th added 253th
1139th added 380th
1708th added 569th

how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

The calculators adjust based on historical data, if the difficulty rise slows down, the calculators will adjust to reflect that. The slow down has to actually happen first, so far it has not, the difficulty rise has been accelerating.

[01BTC10]

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
[...]
how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% every month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of exponential growth starting today is realistic. In the past, we saw a 100% growth per month for 18 contiguous months between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011.

However I think nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Basically, assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable.

Well, if the Monarch is unprofitable, then so will all other mining gear currently being sold. So lets they just ship really late instead.

Competitors will make better/faster/cheaper unit that actually ship well before BFL does.

[Cablez]

The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.

100th with 50% increase each retarget
150th added 50th
225th added 75th
337th added 112th
506th added 169th
759th added 253th
1139th added 380th
1708th added 569th

how does no one realize this?

all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.

Thank you for saying this!  No one seems to understand this concept at all.

You also fail to realize how much money is involved here. How many successful NRE's have been met, at least 5 so far.   As the price of ASICs keep going down (fixed cost after NRE) the hashrate will keep going up (no shortage of greedy people).  I mean really, who doesn't want to print their own money?

[PuertoLibre]

So this is your ROI if you got 600GH/s RIGHT NOW. As in, it is right next to you and turned on humming away creating BTC.

http://s21.postimg.org/ahbpwkjd3/2013_08_18_002223.png

It is safe to say that BFL better stop shipping, as should Avalon, BitFury and lots of others. This may turn out worse than the chart shows.

Cherry-pick your stats much?

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/557dff2f2a

I created my own stats. I am pretty sure Genesis isn't making that good a prediction.

But go ahead, if you are sure about it, you and the others sink all your money into 400Gh/s miners.

In January 2014, we can talk about this again and compare graphs. Lets see who really was closer to the real numbers.

i think the 52% increase in difficulty per month is closer to the target vs that 60% number someone else had

but, this is assuming you actually get it in january 2014 (not very likely).  it's also assuming static price for bitcoins (could happen).

i go with coherent logix!

My numbers are very conservative. If you click this link:

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/033d84b75b

You will notice the rate of change over the last couple of months according to genesis block (without the fudged number by the member quoted above).

This is without all the 400Gh/s ASICs or the BFL backlog, nor Avalon, nor HashFast, etc.

It won't take a genius alot of time to figure out when I tap in 60% per month that I am being extremely generous with the calc. I figure it will even out the error of dips and spikes in the rate increase.

[bitpop]

I CANT BELIEVE IT
DUMB HAG BITCH

Thats the hag thats been making wise ass remarks and nonsensical bullshit blogs on their website? SHES THAT MUCH OLDER?
From her remarks I thought she was like 20 judging.

[Xialla]

mature, granny, with glasses, 60+, mom and son (with Josh)

this lady should switch her career to other kind of business (she is probably very good with fucking others)

[pacojones]

Just saw this on Twitter - WOW...

Roger Ver ‏@rogerkver 7h
"I would rather sit in a tub full of pig feces and smoke meth from a hollowed out fetus then order anything from Butterfly Labs." -Reddit

[PuertoLibre]

https://twitter.com/rogerkver

Edit: In other news https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=204699.msg2949097#msg2949097

I wonder how long do Gen 1 BFL chips have before they crap out as well?