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241  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Bitcoin threatened by digital dollars? on: January 23, 2023, 11:42:17 PM
The CBDC digital dollar does not appear to be a direct competitor to bitcoin.

BTC is deflationary, while the CBDC dollar is inflationary. This places them in different asset categories, where they do not necessarily need to compete as rivals. The CBDC dollar is likely to be rolled out for user by demographics with a current bank account. While one of bitcoin's largest user demographics is known to be an unbanked demographic which could comprise of billions of end users worldwide. The lack of overlap in design, mission statement and user base could allow a CBDC dollar and BTC to exist independently of each other. They don't need to compete for the same markets or the userbase.

Thus far we haven't seen much fanfare for CBDCs. If their biggest advantage is mass adoption in terms of them being backed by traditional financial institutions. There hasn't been much effort made to rollout a marketing campaign in an effort to leverage that current mass adoption. In a sense, CBDCs are flying a little under the radar in terms of most consumers probably not having heard of them.
242  Economy / Economics / Re: Excessive Rain Can Hamper the Economic Cycle on: January 23, 2023, 11:09:51 PM
I wonder if its feasible to use a pipeline to pump flood waters into nearby drylands. There are industrial pumps which can move hundreds of gallons per minute. The hard part could be finding a place to pump all of the excess water to.

Or dig trenches and pits to funnel excess flood waters into. Excavators and bulldozers might be able to gouge out a massive area near flooded cities, where flood waters could be redistributed to.

A higher percentage of sand and gravel in the soil can facilitate better water drainage.

I think regions with high concentrations of clay in the soil can act as a moisture barrier. Making them prone towards not draining and or being absorbed by the soil.

Flooding causes all types of major issues, even after flood waters recede. Hopefully city planners can better take into account changing weather patterns and adjust accordingly.
243  Other / Off-topic / Re: The Philosophy of Success and the Steps Required to Achieve It on: January 23, 2023, 10:56:53 PM
Quote
The Philosophy of Success and the Steps Required to Achieve It


In theory, the playing field is level. Everyone has two arms and two legs. But upon closer inspection, there is more to it than that.

Some ethnicities such as polynesians spent centuries if not thousands of years living on islands with their favorite pastime being recreational hand to hand combat. As a result they have become optimized for it with denser bone and body structures which can be better suited for hand to hand brawling.

Africans are known to have denser muscle structure on average, which contributes towards them having greater average explosiveness in terms of athleticism.

Yet despite these advantages, we see that other ethnicities can compete and overcome some of these disadvantages by having a better work ethic, better diet, smarter gameplan or being more disciplined.

I think these precedents carry over to success in the real world. While some ethnicities might have better genetic disposition towards certain tasks such as sitting in an office all day and doing paperwork. The difference between success and failure might be determined simply by who wants it more.

The door of success is open to everyone, people only need to choose to walk through it.

Where things get complicated is many believe in their heart and mind that success is not for them. Success is for "other people". A big part of it could be learning to rationalize and think about things in a way which allows for people to believe they deserve a better life and deserve to do better for themselves.
244  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Cheat the Lottery Winner on: January 23, 2023, 10:22:10 PM
Quote
The DA’s office said the victim asked Argueta to claim the prize on his behalf to remain anonymous


If the goal is to remain anonymous, it might be better to incorporate and create a separate legal entity to list the assets under.

There was a case years ago where a famous and well known MMA fighter (Rampage Jackson) had ownership of his house listed under his manager's name to retain anonymity.

Later after a messy break up between the two, the manager tried to steal the house, as it was listed under his name. Uncertain as to what the outcome was as it was not well publicized.

If the goal is to be anonymous a better method could be to form a S corporation or LLC (limited liability corp) to claim assets like lottery winnings under.
245  Economy / Economics / Biden administration announces move to fight 'organic fraud' on: January 20, 2023, 11:32:15 PM
Quote
The Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated its regulations on organic food labels, as part of an effort to close loopholes and increase confidence in the agency’s organic seal.

"This update to the USDA organic regulations strengthens oversight and enforcement of the production, handling, and sale of organic products." the agency said in a statement on Thursday.

The USDA shared that the new rules, which will be "biggest update to organic regulations" since 1990, hopes to provide, "a significant increase in oversight and enforcement authority to reinforce the trust of consumers, farmers, and those transitioning to organic production."

Previously, the USDA had a strict definition of "certified organic," allowing the label to be used only for products that meet certain standards for soil quality, animal-raising practices, pest and weed control, and use of additives.

The new rules will tighten the certification requirements along the organic food supply chain, require certificates for imported goods and beef up inspection protocols.

Under the new requirements, non-retail containers will be required to sport organic labeling to "reduce the mishandling of organic products" and "support traceability."

"Protecting and growing the organic sector and the trusted USDA organic seal is a key part of the USDA Food Systems Transformation initiative," Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs Jenny Lester Moffitt said.

The Organic Trade Association praised the new rules, saying the policy "will have significant and far-reaching impacts on the organic sector and will do much to deter and detect organic fraud and protect organic integrity throughout the supply chain."

In a Federal Register notice, the USDA sited examples of organic food fraud in recent months.

This week, two Minnesota farmers were charged for allegedly planning to sell more than $46 million worth of chemically treated crops as organic between 2014 and 2021.

In another case prosecuted in Iowa in 2019, the defendant sold some $142 million in non-organic grain over seven years, claiming inaccurately the grain was organically grown in Nebraska and Missouri. Four individuals were sentenced to prison in the case.

"This rule includes more robust traceability and verification practices that would have helped identify and stop this type of fraud earlier, preventing further sale of the fraudulent products and reducing the impact of the fraud," the USDA said in the notice.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/biden-administration-announces-move-fight-organic-fraud


....


If I remember correctly, food products in the USA need only be 75% organic to be branded with an organic label. In which case, its acceptable for organic labeled products in the country to be 75% organic and can still be as much as 25% GMO. The way food products are defined are based on percentages of the ingredients it contains.

Unfortunately, this article does not do much to elaborate upon specifically which changes are being made. I would guess we should have more details coming in the future.

While brand labels like whole foods were known for being organic in the past. That may also have changed as ownership of whole foods was sold to amazon in 2017.
246  Economy / Economics / US hits debt ceiling, prompting Treasury to take extraordinary measures on: January 20, 2023, 11:18:27 PM
Quote
CNN — The US hit the debt ceiling set by Congress on Thursday, forcing the Treasury Department to start taking extraordinary measures to keep the government paying its bills and escalating pressure on Capitol Hill to avoid a catastrophic default.

The battle lines for the high-stakes fight have already been set. Hardline Republicans, who have enormous sway in the House because of the party’s slim majority, have demanded that lifting the borrowing cap be tied to spending reductions. The White House countered that it will not offer any concessions or negotiate on raising the debt ceiling. And with the solution to the debt ceiling drama squarely in lawmakers’ hands, fears are growing that the partisan brinksmanship could result in the nation defaulting on its debt for the first time ever – or coming dangerously close to doing so.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy Thursday, informing him that the nation’s outstanding debt is at its statutory limit of $31.4 trillion and that the agency will implement extraordinary measures so it doesn’t default on its debt, which would have enormous consequences on the US economy, global financial stability and many Americans. She said the measures would last through June 5.

This buys Congress some time – but how long the extraordinary measures can last is subject to “considerable uncertainty,” she wrote, stressing that it’s a challenge to forecast how many financial obligations the federal government must pay and how much revenue it will take in months into the future.

“I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States,” she wrote.

The announcement follows the warning Yellen sent last week about the approaching debt limit and the temporary Band-aid of the extraordinary measures.

But her missive has failed to spark bipartisan discussion so far. Instead, both Republicans and Democrats reaffirmed their rigid positions over the past week.

National Economic Council Director Brian Deese on Thursday repeatedly called on Congress to meet the United States’ obligations by raising the debt limit, warning against “economic chaos” that could ensue should Congress fail to do so.

“This is about economic stability versus economic chaos,” Deese told Kaitlan Collins on “CNN This Morning,” calling it Congress’ “basic, fundamental obligation.”

He added, “Even just the specter that the United States might not honor its obligations does damage to the economy.”

McCarthy must walk a fine line since any member can call for a motion to vacate the speaker’s chair, one of several concessions he made to gain the top post after 15 rounds of voting earlier this month.

For now, he is leaning in on using the debt ceiling crisis to cut spending and balance the US budget. On Tuesday, McCarthy rejected Democratic calls for a clean debt ceiling increase without any conditions attached – something Congress has done time and again, including under then-President Donald Trump. The speaker told reporters on Capitol Hill that the Biden administration should begin to negotiate ahead of this summer, when the US could default.

“Why wouldn’t we sit down and change this behavior so that we would put ourselves on a more fiscally strong position?” McCarthy said.

President Joe Biden and McCarthy have not yet spoken Thursday about the debt limit, according to an official familiar with the dynamic.

Hard-right GOP Rep. Andy Biggs went even further in a tweet on Tuesday, writing, “We cannot raise the debt ceiling. Democrats have carelessly spent our taxpayer money and devalued our currency. They’ve made their bed, so they must lie in it.”

The White House on Wednesday blasted the Arizona Republican’s “stunning and unacceptable position” and once again rejected calls to reduce spending as part of a debt ceiling deal.

While there were no meetings with congressional leadership to announce at this time, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that the administration has been reaching out “to all members, from both sides of the aisle,” but, “there will not be any negotiations over the debt ceiling– we will not do that, it is their constitutional duty.”

Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, meanwhile, sought to reassure Americans that an agreement eventually will be reached with the Biden administration. He stressed that the US must never default on its debt and never will.

“No, I would not be concerned about a financial crisis,” he said at an event in Louisville, Kentucky, on Thursday, noting that dealing with the borrowing cap is “always a rather contentious effort.”

The debt ceiling, which is the maximum amount the federal government is able to borrow to finance obligations that lawmakers and presidents have already approved, was last raised in December 2021. Created more than a century ago, it has become a way for Congress to restrict the growth of borrowing – turning it into a political football in recent decades.

Increasing the cap does not authorize new spending commitments.

How Treasury will temporarily avoid a default

Treasury will start using two extraordinary measures to allow it to temporarily continue financing the federal government’s operations, Yellen wrote on Thursday. They are mainly behind-the-scenes accounting maneuvers.

As part of the debt issuance suspension period, the agency will begin to sell existing investments and suspending reinvestments of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. Also, it will suspend the reinvestment of a government securities fund of the Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan.

These funds are invested in special-issue Treasury securities, which count against the debt limit. Treasury’s actions would reduce the amount of outstanding debt subject to the limit and temporarily allow it to continue paying the government’s bills on time and in full.

No federal retirees or employees will be affected, and the funds will be made whole once the impasse ends, Yellen wrote.



https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics/debt-ceiling-deadline-treasury/index.html


....


I feel like this should be making headlines as front page news.

It will be awkward if the worst case scenario hits. With many complaining they didn't see the warning signs. And had no clue the united states being in danger of defaulting was an actual thing.

I have seen many articles published like the above over the years. Being bad news they typically do not receive many views. Those who see the article typically deem it "negative" and "depressing" and work as hard as they can to forget they saw it. So that they can sleep easier at night, without having to worry as much about what tomorrow might bring.

News like this is usually never shared on social media platforms or in regular conversations. Which makes it easy to live under a rock and remain clueless on what is happening in the world.

All of these trends usually converge in something resembling a perfect storm to make it impossible for issues we face as a society to ever be prevented.

While circumstances appear to have improved post 2020 pandemic, in terms of people being more proactive in keeping track of news cycles and current events which hold a large sway over their quality of life. I suspect most would still prefer to not know things like this are current issues. Believing they're better off not knowing. Rather than have warnings in advance which would allow them to take steps to more easily cope with these types of concerns.

Its a strange thing and a strange world we live in.
247  Economy / Economics / Re: [INFO] University Of Singapore Invent VR Glove To Let You Feel the Metaverse on: January 20, 2023, 10:52:50 PM
Reminds me of japan's VR construction robots.

Quote
Giant VR Robots Are Building Railways In Japan

APRIL 26, 2022

Could VR-powered humanoid robots be the future of heavy construction?

Over the years we’ve seen a number of major corporations try their hands at marrying VR technology and robotics, from VR convenience store employees and a remote-controlled bomb squad bot to a rather unsettling headset that uses a robotic arm to hand-feed delicious candy. And that’s just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

Earlier this month, JR West—a major railroad transportation company operating out of Japan—revealed plans to use giant VR-powered robots in the construction of future railroad lines. The multifunctional railway heavy equipment is comprised of a railroad construction vehicle merged with a humanoid heavy robot, resulting in a sort of blue-collar Transformer.

https://virtualuncle.com/2022/04/26/giant-vr-robots-are-building-railways-in-japan/

A feedback glove could be exactly what real life robots need to give their operators better sensitivity and feel for things.

While technology movements like metaverse strive to make the internet more like real life. I think there is something to consider in terms of simplicity versus realism. The main advantage of the internet is it automating tasks and making everyday chores simpler and easier to perform. That functionality is one of technologies main attractions. Which could imply that its a focus worth pursuing for platforms like metaverse.

As opposed to a trend where tasks that are fast and easy on the internet, become more like real life.
248  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Going to win 6000 usd on a ufc bet 21 january on: January 20, 2023, 10:33:38 PM
Brandon Moreno was coached by James Krause in his last fight versus Kai Kara France. Now that Krause is suspended from the UFC on insider trading allegations. I wonder if it will upset Moreno's progression in martial arts.

Figueiredo is a complete animal at 125. I think the main chance for him losing is if he has a bad weight cut. As was the case for their 2nd fight where Moreno finished him.

Hope you win your bet. Being able to consistently win at gambling is a good feeling. Its like owning your own money printing machine.
249  Economy / Economics / A Bank of America Glitch Sent Customers Into a Panic Over Missing Funds on: January 19, 2023, 11:49:06 PM
Quote
On Wednesday morning, Bank of America customers began reporting issues with payments processed through the money transfer service Zelle, which led to money disappearing from their accounts.

Many customers took to Twitter to express their outrage as they began to notice the missing funds.

One user tweeted, “I almost lost my mind when I saw $2,000 was missing from my account.”

Another said, “So cool how @BankofAmerica magically disappeared a large Zelle transaction that HAD ALREADY POSTED and I had used to pay bills. Now I’m extremely in debt in my checking and I can’t get ahold of them. Unbelievable.”

Zelle is a money transfer service that works with U.S. banks to move funds directly from one bank account to another. Zelle transfers are quick and free––making the service a popular alternative to credit card transactions that can take a few days to hit users’ accounts and often require fees and bank transfers. However, the service has been under fire by government officials for being an easy facilitator for fraud and theft.

The website downdetector.com reported over 1,000 outage reports for Bank of America by 10:30 a.m. EST, coupled with a similar spike in Zelle outage reports.

Over a customer support social media account, Zelle redirected users to Bank of America, saying, “The Zelle App & Network are up & running. We are aware of an issue that is impacting Bank Of America customers when sending & receiving payments. We recommend contacting Bank of America’s customer support team for additional updates.”

Zelle does not offer any protection for payments made through their services—which means that there’s no safeguard for customers if a transaction goes wrong.

Bank of America told TIME that, as of 3:00 p.m. EST, the issue has been resolved and customers are receiving their funds back.

The Charlotte Observer reported that customers received a notice when they logged into their online bank accounts on Wednesday, saying that transactions were not missing, but delayed.

“Zelle transactions made between January 14th and January 17th may be delayed in occurring and posting to accounts as requested,” the notice said. “Transfers will be completed and will appear in your account activity and balances as soon as possible.”

In 2020, Bank of America customers reported another major glitch, with accounts showing inaccurate balances of as little as $0. The company acknowledged the issue, saying at the time that any inaccuracies did not impact their actual funds. “Some clients may currently see an inaccurate account balance in online or mobile banking. There is no impact to their accounts and their information remains secure,” Bank of America said.

Global payment service ACI Worldwide reported last year that fraud loss in the United States from Authorized Push Payments—scams that trick victims into willingly making large bank transfers to fraudsters—is expected to rise to $3 billion in 2026.

In a report issued last fall, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren said four banks provided data reporting over 190,000 cases of fraudulent transactions on Zelle involving over $213 million of payments in 2021 and the first half of 2022. In the majority of the cases, the report noted, individuals were not repaid the amount they were defrauded. Zelle did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.

Warren called out both services on Twitter Wednesday afternoon, writing “@BankofAmerica and @Zelle are apparently failing customers again, with money somehow disappearing from accounts. This should be fixed immediately and customers should be compensated. I’ve called out serious fraud issues on Zelle and this is their latest failure.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-bank-of-america-glitch-sent-customers-into-a-panic-over-missing-funds/ar-AA16uJ5D


....


Uncertain as to whether this is the type of publicity US banks and financial institutions need in 2022.

This is nothing new. There has been no shortage of this type of news over the last decade. I have a feeling that the majority of people who were once completely oblivious to these types of occurrences are becoming closer to news cycles and current events.

If banks in 2007 had a glitch like this one, the american people would not have cared. But things may have changed to a point where people are becoming much more savvy and connected to current events. In which case, I don't know if financial institutions want this type of negative publicity, considering the fallout could be more serious and widespread today than in previous eras.

These types of casual glitches also make it difficult for banking industry CEOs like Jamie Dimon to comment on crypto or bitcoin.

I hope people are aware of events like these and taking steps to adapt and prepare to our shifting economic climate.
250  Economy / Economics / Re: How is the cost of living in your country? on: January 19, 2023, 11:42:45 PM
While the cost of food has definitely risen, I have noticed deals being offered for home delivery of groceries where prices are marked off by more than 50%. Target and other retailers offering home delivery appear to aggressively be pushing the option with generous sales.

Amazon with its free shipping plan was a good alternative for food shopping, before rising shipping costs were factored into unit pricing. Amazon is still a decent option under some circumstances where local supplies are limited. Although I have noticed that it is now cheaper to buy many food products in stores than on amazon, which bucks the previous trend of amazon being the more affordable seller. Amazon also carries a good supply of freeze dried and dehydrated rations which are suitable for emergency long term storage. It is good to remember dehydrating and freeze drying food products eliminates vitamin C. Good supplementary sources of vitamin c are a necessity for planning purposes.

Alternatives to rising fossil fuel prices are more difficult to come by. I would guess more people are resorting to EVs, bicycles, electric scooters, mopeds and alternative travel options which offer better MPG.
251  Economy / Economics / Re: Comparing U.S. Federal Spending with Revenue - This is why fiat will fall on: January 19, 2023, 11:20:36 PM
Obligatory US state spending has always grown at a faster rate than tax revenues. At a certain point liabilities are guaranteed to exceed income. It is only a question of when. And what happens when that point is reached. The term ticking debt time bomb might define the end game if we are unable to reconcile matters in a way that is favorable. The US economy has always existed on borrowed time from the inception of its foundation being laid. This is the reason behind many being confident enough to predict the demise of social security and other state managed programs. While most of us hoped that day wouldn't come during our lifetimes. A case might be made for the global pandemic and other unforeseen events accelerating the pace at which circumstances deteriorate.

This was making headlines in the fallout of the 2008 crisis. I remember being angry and depressed around that time due to issues like these. But over time, there becomes less to be angry and depressed about. As you realize there isn't much you can do about it. At least knowing gives you a chance to adapt and prepare. Not knowing is a worse place to be.
252  Economy / Economics / Iran and Russia want to issue new stablecoin backed by gold on: January 18, 2023, 11:51:03 PM
Quote
The potential stablecoin aims to enable cross-border transactions instead of fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, the Russian ruble or the Iranian rial.

The Central Bank of Iran is reportedly cooperating with the Russian government to jointly issue a new cryptocurrency backed by gold.

According to the Russian news agency Vedomosti, Iran is working with Russia to create a “token of the Persian Gulf region” that would serve as a payment method in foreign trade.

The token is projected to be issued in the form of a stablecoin backed by gold, according to Alexander Brazhnikov, executive director of the Russian Association of Crypto Industry and Blockchain.

The stablecoin aims to enable cross-border transactions instead of fiat currencies like the United States dollar, the Russian ruble or the Iranian rial. The report notes that the potential cryptocurrency would operate in a special economic zone in Astrakhan, where Russia started to accept Iranian cargo shipments.

Russian lawmaker Anton Tkachev, a member of the Committee on Information Policy, Information Technology and Communications, stressed that a joint stablecoin project would only be possible once the digital asset market is fully regulated in Russia. After multiple delays, the Russian lower house of parliament once again promised to start regulating crypto transactions in 2023.

Iran and Russia are among the countries that banned their residents from using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin BTCtickers down
$20,921 and stablecoins like Tether (USDT) for payments. At the same time, Iran and Russia have been actively working to adopt crypto as a tool of foreign trade.

In August 2022, Iran’s Industry, Mines and Trade Ministry approved the use of cryptocurrency for imports into the country amid ongoing international trade sanctions. The local government said the new measures would help Iran mitigate global trade sanctions. Iran subsequently placed its first international import order using $10 million worth of crypto.

The Bank of Russia — historically opposed to using crypto as a payment method — agreed to allow crypto in foreign trade to mitigate the impact of international sanctions. The regulator has never clarified which cryptocurrencies would be used for such transactions though.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/iran-and-russia-want-to-issue-new-stablecoin-backed-by-gold


....


Iran and russia want to issue a stablecoin?! This world is becoming crazier by the day.

I would guess their first kneejerk reaction was to simply use gold. Then they realized if they digitized it. They could simply move digital funds from one account to another account. Which is easier and more efficient than shipping heavy piles of gold across long distances. But then who would cover development costs of what could easily become a multi million dollar project? Then they realized, if they used free open source code from crypto projects, they wouldn't have to pay software development costs and would only need servers to run it and personnel to maintain it.

So it seems that crypto and stablecoins may become a natural progression for corporations and nations of the world who are attempting to solve basic and fundamental problems of economy. Such as developing and deploying financial systems to facilitate transactions denominated in gold. Rather than starting from zero and building systems upwards to achieve basic and fundamental financial tasks.
253  Economy / Economics / Re: Brace yourselves, CBDCs one Step Closer on: January 18, 2023, 11:45:08 PM
While central banks are known for setting interest rates, I do not remember them doing much in terms of currency minting or commercial banking. It is possible central banks are not well equipped to develop and deploy CBDC. Not only might they lack the personnel necessary to complete the task, they might also lack the infrastructure, communications channels and software necessary. All of which could take years and billions of dollars to develop and rollout within a reasonable timeframe.

While commercial banks are incentivized to produce value at high efficiency and minimum cost, the same precedent may not apply to state sanctioned entities like central banks. This may become apparent in terms of venezuela's central bank not doing the best job rolling out their own CBDC. I would be curious to know what would happen if venezuela attempted to deploy their own NFTs. Could they do it within a reasonable timeframe in a cost effective manner? Perhaps its safe to say that central banks do not have much experience with these types of tasks that have a learning curve to them. It could take time. Perhaps even decades before we see CBDCs deployed in earnest.
254  Economy / Economics / Re: Another Boom for the crypto market. on: January 18, 2023, 11:33:13 PM
Remember in years past when the majority said legalizing and taxing marijuana was the no brainer, common sense, stance on cannabis?

It seems crypto is emerging within a similar precedent where governments of the world seek to legalize and tax it to boost economies and tax revenues. We've seen it with spain and other european nations offering "digital nomad" travel visas which would allow crypto whales to reside in country. Tax cuts and other incentives have been offered by other nations in an effort to attract crypto whales.

Its difficult to say how far crypto has penetrated into public consciousness and the degree to which younger generations might have chosen to embrace it. So called "bitcoin maximalists" appear to be taking flak at the moment on social media platforms. With many not being outspoken as to which direction they lean in.

Poland appears to be the latest to hop on the crypto bandwagon in an effort to boost tax revenues and economic stats. Given current conditions and plans to fund resistance against russia. Nations like poland could currently be scrambling to generate revenues as high as possible. Knowing their defense budgets are defined as a percentage of GDP, incentivizes them to devise methods to boost GDP. To increase funds which can be devoted towards defense purposes. In which case, embracing crypto could become a legitimate means of funding resistance against russian expansionism.
255  Economy / Economics / Re: We are not out of the woods yet on: January 18, 2023, 11:19:55 PM
I think on some level bitcoin has come to symbolize concepts like "financial freedom" and "be your own bank". It may have changed the way that people think of and view money. Opened peoples minds as to how economies and financial institutions might be structured differently. To elevate standard of living, granting consumers more options and opportunities in life. As well as boosting perception of what the term financial freedom could mean in the future.

This could represent the evolution of humanity. In terms of our concepts and ideas about what is possible for us and how the world works adapting, progressing and evolving over time. While we might have bitcoin to represent certain ideology and ideas. We may not yet have reached the final form.

If fiat currency is a horse driven wagon. Bitcoin might be the modern automobile. Could that be an accurate analogy?

It is possible that as long as people support and believe in finding better ways to conduct business and better methods to live their lives, there will always be things like bitcoin being developed. It may simply be the natural evolution of things. While it may be discouraged. Stalled. Or perhaps even appear to be wiped out at times. There could always be someone who will find a way to invent a better mousetrap. At which time, people will have to decide whether they want to use the new and better way of doing things. Or revert to using past methods, which are not as good within a regressive trend.
256  Economy / Economics / Re: MtGOX + FTX = GTX on: January 18, 2023, 11:02:14 PM

So they basically want to trade an exchange which trades creditor claims. So since many are owed MtGox, Celcious, FTX claims they can sell their claim for pennies on the dollar and get some money back NOW instead of waiting a few years. MtGox claims I think were something like 20% back in 2015. The more evidence of the company being solvent then obviously the higher the claim will be.

Another reason is how can you sell these claims exactly?  DO you give your email+password+2fa and sell it like that? How does someone prove how much funds you had on FTX since the website is down. No idea how this is even possible.

Crypto getting weirder and weirder everyday.


The 2008 financial crisis is sometimes referred to as a subprime mortgage crisis. There were derivatives called CDOs, collaterized debt obligations. Which were bundles of subprime mortgages that were traded with leverage.

It is possible they could bundle FTX creditor claims in a similar fashion to the way CDOs bundled subprime mortgages in 2008. While it may not necessarily be a stable investment vehicle. It could be prone to volatility considering what the latest news release was. While it might take years for FTX depositors to have a chance of recouping their investment if they follow a normal legal path. If they instead choose to sell off the rights to their holdings, they could be able to recover a fraction of their account balance in a short span of time.

The format could be similar to an auction for those with claims on FTX assets. Except rather than a one time sale, the assets would be actively traded?

While the FTX website might be down. They should have accurate record keeping and data backups. I don't think this option would necessarily be available to all account holders. It could be that only the larger investors could be compensated this way.
257  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury - February 25 in Saudi Arabia on: January 18, 2023, 10:30:44 PM
Quote
Jake Paul to compete in MMA after signing multiyear deal with PFL

Paul has signed a multifight contract with the promotion and will compete in a new division, known as Super Fight, with events on pay-per-view. No matchups have been lined up for the YouTube-star-turned-boxer, who intends to compete in both boxing and MMA this year.

Paul confirmed that he’s joined the PFL in an interview with the New York Times, which was first to report the news Thursday.

“This is about changing MMA, disrupting, innovating, and creating the next big league,” said Paul, who later announced the move in a video posted on his you social media platforms.

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2023/01/mma-news-jake-paul-signs-with-pfl-compete-in-mma-contract-ufc


Jake recently signed with PFL's MMA promotion.

Not certain if it can serve as a foundation for a successful business relationship. Jake Paul's pay per view numbers haven't been good since fighting Tyron Woodley.

It is also in question as to how long Jake has been training MMA. He wrestled in high school and trained a little with Jorge Masvidal a few years ago. Logan Paul has trained MMA with Paulo Costa and others. It is possible that Jake Paul has been training MMA for a few years by this point in time. Which is close to the bare minimum one would expect for a person to become borderline competent with the wrestling and grappling side of things.
258  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: NFL Playoffs on: January 18, 2023, 08:10:20 PM
Tomorrow I'm leaning Brady and the bucs but will hold off for now.


Although, I didn't follow the 2022 season closely. From an outsider's perspective, it seems Tom Brady hasn't performed well since his divorce around november 2022.

It is possible Tom Brady made an agreement with his wife to retire from the game prior to the 2022 NFL season. An agreement which Tom Brady broke, resulting in his wife divorcing him. This might be seen in Brady officially announcing his retirement from the game. Having a stable relationship and family life can have a significant impact on the performance of athletes. There are many professional athletes who were never the same after a break up or divorce. At the moment, I'm wondering if Brady might be one of those whose NFL career will never recover.

Jacksonville making it past round 1 was a surprise. They have had a losing record for most of the years I've followed NFL.

I'm hoping Josh Allen and the bills make it to the superbowl. I like his style of leaving it all on the field.
259  Economy / Economics / Google warns Supreme Court against ‘gutting’ controversial tech provision on: January 17, 2023, 11:58:38 PM
Quote
Google argued that if the Supreme Court rules to scale back a liability shield for internet companies, the decision could lead to more censorship and hate speech online, according to a brief filed Thursday.

The filing showcases Google’s argument in a case facing the high court that centers around Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, a controversial provision that protects companies from being sued over content posted by third parties.

“Gutting Section 230 … would upend the internet and perversely encourage both wide-ranging suppression of speech and the proliferation of more offensive speech,” the filing states.

Sites with resources to take down objectionable content could “become beholden to heckler’s vetoes, removing anything anyone found objectionable,” while other sides could take “the see-no-evil approach” and disable filtering to “avoid any interference of constructive knowledge of third-party content,” the company argued.

The case is based on allegations against Google raised by the family of Nohemi Gonzalez, a 23-year-old U.S. citizen killed in a 2015 Islamic State Terror Attack in France. Gonzalez’s family alleges Google-owned video-sharing site YouTube provided a platform for terrorist content and recommended content inciting violence and recruiting potential Islamic State supporters through YouTube’s recommendation algorithm.

At the crux of the case is a question of whether Section 230 protects Google against the allegations.

Oral arguments before the Supreme Court are scheduled for Feb. 21.

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have been pushing for reforms to Section 230, but for different reasons, meaning there is likely to be little consensus by way of policy reform.

President Biden doubled down on his calls to reform Section 230 in an op-ed published in The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

Democrats argue the provision leads to more hate speech and misinformation online, since it protects tech platforms from being legally responsible for such content. Meanwhile, Republicans argue it allows platforms to censor content with anti-conservative biases.

The Justice Department filed a brief in the case last month warning the Supreme Court against an “overly broad” interpretation of Section 230. The department argued that the provision protects YouTube over liability for hosting or “failing to remove” ISIS-related content, but not over claims based on YouTube’s “own conduct in designing and implementing its targeted-recommendation algorithms.”



https://news.yahoo.com/google-warns-supreme-court-against-214357642.html


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My take on this is that if parents can't be expected to watch their kids 24/7 and screen all of the content and activities they come into contact with. Corporations with an internet presence also should not be expected to scrutinize every tiny minutiae of activity on their platforms. While corporations might possibly hire excessive manpower to watchover everything that happens on their servers. It may not even be feasible or possible for such a thing to occur in terms of cost effectiveness.

There is a potential option in the form of markets like amazon turk which payout low fees for random internet workers to carry out specific tasks:

Amazon turk:  https://www.mturk.com/worker

It is also known that internet tasks are often outsourced to nations with lower labor costs.

Perhaps these models can be applied to allow platforms like pornhub to do a better job screening its content.

Although, I get a feeling that state entities of the world want such content and end user audits to be conducted completely within the borders of their own nations. Which could complicate things.
260  Economy / Economics / Thanks to DALL-E, the Race to Make Artificial Protein Drugs Is On on: January 17, 2023, 11:55:41 PM
Quote
Remember when predicting protein shapes using AI was the breakthrough of the year?

That’s old news. Having solved nearly all protein structures known to biology, AI is now turning to a new challenge: designing proteins from scratch.

Far from an academic pursuit, the endeavor is a potential game-changer for drug discovery. Having the ability to draw up protein drugs for any given target inside the body—such as those triggering cancer growth and spread—could launch a new universe of medicines to tackle our worst medical foes.

It’s no wonder multiple AI powerhouses are answering the challenge. What’s surprising is that they converged on a similar approach. This year DeepMind, Meta, and Dr. David Baker’s team at the University of Washington all took inspiration from an unlikely source: DALL-E and GPT-3.

These generative algorithms have taken the world by storm. When given just a few simple prompts in everyday English, the programs can produce mind-bending images, paragraphs of creative writing, or film scenes, and even remix the latest fashion designs. The same underlying technology recently took a stab at writing computer code, besting nearly half of human competitors in a highly challenging programming task.

What does any of that have to do with proteins?

Here’s the thing: proteins are essentially strings of “letters” molded into secondary structures—think sentences—and then 3D “paragraphs.” If AI can generate gorgeous images and clean writing, why not co-opt the technology to rewrite the code of life?

Here Come the Champions

Protein is the key to life. It builds our bodies. It runs our metabolisms. It underlies intricate brain functions. It’s also the basis for a wealth of new drugs that could treat some of our most insurmountable health problems to date—and create new sources of biofuels, lab-grown meats, or even entirely novel lifeforms through synthetic biology.

While “protein” often evokes pictures of chicken breasts, these molecules are more similar to an intricate Lego puzzle. Building a protein starts with a string of amino acids—think a myriad of Christmas lights on a string— which then fold into 3D structures (like rumpling them up for storage).

DeepMind and Baker both made waves when they each developed algorithms to predict the structure of any protein based on their amino acid sequence. It was no simple endeavor; the predictions were mapped at the atomic level.

Designing new proteins raises the complexity to another level. This year Baker’s lab took a stab at it, with one effort using good old screening techniques and another relying on deep learning hallucinations. Both algorithms are extremely powerful for demystifying natural proteins and generating new ones, but they were hard to scale up.

But wait. Designing a protein is a bit like writing an essay. If GPT-3 and ChatGPT can write sophisticated dialogue using natural language, the same technology could in theory also rejigger the language of proteins—amino acids—to form functional proteins entirely unknown to nature.

AI Creativity Meets Biology

One of the first signs that the trick could work came from Meta.

In a recent preprint paper, they tapped into the AI architecture underlying DALL-E and ChatGPT, a type of machine learning called large language models (LLMs), to predict protein structure. Instead of feeding the models exuberant amounts of text or images, the team instead trained them on amino acid sequences of known proteins. Using the model, Meta’s AI predicted over 600 million protein structures by reading their amino acid “letters” alone—including esoteric ones from microorganisms in the soil, ocean water, and our bodies that we know little about.

More impressively, the AI, called ESMFold, eventually learned to “autocomplete” protein sequences even when some amino acid letters were obscured. Although not as accurate as DeepMind’s AlphaFold, it ran roughly 60 times faster, making it easier to scale up to larger databases.

Baker’s lab took the protein “autocomplete” function to a new level in a preprint published earlier this month. If AI can already fill in the blanks when it comes to predicting protein structures, a similar principle could potentially also generate proteins from a prompt—in this case, its potential biological function.

The key came down to diffusion models, a type of machine learning algorithm that powers DALL-E. Put simply, these neural networks are especially good at adding and then removing noise from any given data—be it images, texts, or protein sequences. During training, they first destroy training data by adding noise. The model then learns to recover the original data by reversing the process through a step called denoising. It’s a bit like dismantling a laptop or other electronic and putting it back together to see how different components work.

Because diffusion models usually start with scrambled data (say, all the pixels of an image are rearranged into noise) and eventually learn to reconstruct the original image, it’s especially effective at generating new images—or proteins—from seemingly random samples.

Baker’s lab tapped into the approach with a bit of fine-tuning of their signature RoseTTAFold structure prediction network. Previously, a version of the software generated protein scaffolds—the backbone of a protein—in just a single step. But proteins aren’t uniform blobs: each has multiple hotspots that allow them to physically tag onto each other, which triggers various biological processes. When RoseTTAFold faced tough problems—such as designing protein hotspots with minimal knowledge—it struggled.

The team’s solution was to integrate RoseTTAFold with a diffusion model, with the former helping with the denoising step. The resulting algorithm, RoseTTAFold Diffusion (RF Diffusion), is a love-child between protein structure prediction and creative generation. The AI designed a wide range of elaborate proteins with little resemblance to any known protein structures, constrained by pre-defined but biologically relevant limits.

Designing proteins is just the first step. The next is translating these digital designs into actual proteins and seeing how they work in cells. In one test, the team took 44 candidates with antibacterial and antiviral potential and made the proteins inside the trusty E. Coli bacteria. Over 80 percent of the AI designer proteins folded into their predicted final form. This isquite the feat, as several sub-units had to come together in specific numbers and orientations.

The proteins also grabbed onto their intended targets. One example had a protein structure binding to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. The AI design specifically honed in on the virus’s spike protein, the target for Covid-19 vaccines.

In another example, the AI designed a protein that binds to a hormone to regulate calcium levels in the blood. The resulting candidate readily grabbed onto the target—so much so that it needed just a tiny amount. Speaking to MIT Technology Review, Baker said the AI seemed to pull protein drug solutions “out of thin air.”

“These works reveal just how powerful diffusion models can be for protein design,” said study author Dr. Joseph Watson.

Do AIs Dream of Molecular Sheep?

Baker’s lab isn’t the only one chasing AI-based protein drugs.

Generate Biomedicines, a startup based in Massachusetts, also has its eyes on diffusion models for generating proteins. Dubbed Chroma, their software works similarly to RF Diffusion, including the generated proteins adhering to biophysical constraints. According to the company, Chroma can generate large proteins—over 4,000 amino acid residues—in just a few minutes on a GPU (graphics processing unit).

While just ramping up, it’s clear that the race for on-demand protein drug design is on. “It’s extremely exciting,” said David Juergens, author of the RF Diffusion study, “and it’s really just the beginning.”


https://singularityhub.com/2023/01/03/thanks-to-dall-e-the-race-to-make-artificial-protein-drugs-is-on/


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Recently, I have also seen predictions claiming AI technologies like DALL-E will also wipe out human tasks in the animation industry in 5 years.

https://nicksaraev.com/ai-animation-is-coming/

There are definitely a few bold claims being made as far as technologies like these go.

It could be worth looking into if DALL-E and GPT-3 are as revolutionary as claimed. My take on AI is a mixed bag. There have been a few AI claimed breakthroughs that IMO didn't pan out. I remember reading about a breakthrough involving machine learning and AI to manufacture new materials with higher heat tolerance. But reading the fine print, I discovered they merely incorporated aluminum into the design for its optimized cooling properties. Aluminum which can be found standardized in heat sinks across industries.

Perhaps these AI platforms might someday also be used to create the perfect altcoin? The perfect fiat currency? What are the limitations of the technology?
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