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2601  Economy / Economics / Re: Financial crisis 2.0 - What will happen to bitcoin in the next crisis? on: September 27, 2019, 04:43:40 PM
[snip]To compound this problem, all nations are overprinting fiat currency in an effort to over-compensate...
The problem is that they don't actually. Printing is usually mechanism that is leading to destabilisation of any given fiat, most central banks have in their status, that they will protect stability of a coin they govern. Law usually is set this way, so that central simply cant print in to oblivion.

Nations don't habitually overprint currency?  



The most glaring chart is japan's high money supply inflation in spite of its notoriously low birth rate. Inflation of money supplies is far outpacing population growth in every instance.

I think the united states has laws against debasing or devaluing the money supply. It does nothing to deter it from happening. There is considerable pressure on regulators to follow political narratives. We have witnessed the official definition of terms like unemployment being rewritten to illustrate a more aesthetic view of the economy.

Inflation is no different. In the united states, the official definition of inflation was rewritten years ago if I remember correctly. To paint a rosier image of the economy. Under the old definition of inflation, the US would be experiencing near to 10% inflation annually.

Money is being printed to oblivion around the world. One key reason why economic outlooks are bleak atm.

The thing that they do is much, much worse. They borrow. Borrow from each other at the expense of future generations. Effect is of course exactly the same, just like you described but stable, slow and semi-predicable.
Politics of acceptance for the inflation is based on a false premise, they (the bankers of today) where taught for their entire schooling, that deflationary currency is bad for the macroeconomy. 100 years ago, nobody was aware of services driven economics. It was all about industry but times has changed. Today we spend most on services not physical goods and that's why deflation proves itself quite useful because people are addicted to those services. They cant imagine life without them, so they pay despite their money gaining in value, system spins the same way, if not faster. Bitcoin proves this.
In my opinion crypto will retain it's position as safe-haven during the upcoming crisis, it will be the best store of value.  

Throughout history, governments have typically operated as machines of wealth redistribution.

This means governments collect a high percentage of taxes from poor to middle class earners and redistribute that wealth to the rich who pay a significantly lower percentage of tax.

Deflationary currencies are deemed "bad" as they limit the degree to which wealth can be redistributed from the poor to the wealthy.

Borrowing is deemed "good" as it allows for governments to spend more capital on wealth redistribution than they currently have on hand.

This doesn't imply that wealthy demographics are evil or immoral. Elites have real knowledge and comprehension which allows them a superior position. For whatever reason, other demographics cannot find it within themselves to be skeptical or question the status quo sufficiently to begin to address underlying reasons behind inequality in taxation, wealth and wages.

People love to over-romanticize things within a "one percenters are so evil and corrupt" vein. While playing the victim card. I think the harsh truth is, everyone plays to win. Those at the top of the food chain are a little smarter and work a little harder at it.
2602  Economy / Economics / Re: Financial crisis 2.0 - What will happen to bitcoin in the next crisis? on: September 26, 2019, 11:04:36 PM
AFAIK inflation growth has outpaced average wage growth for many years since the 2008 crisis. The cost of living expenses is growing at a faster rate than wages. This negative trend is triggering economic slowdown throughout the world as consumer spending fails to keep pace with the appreciating cost of things like real estate.

To compound this problem, all nations are overprinting fiat currency in an effort to over-compensate which further devalues the purchasing power of consumers, further exacerbating issues relating to stagnant wage growth. Economic slowdown is the result. This produces a vicious cycle where even many banks are becoming fiscally insolvent due to their leveraged holdings being dragged down in lock step with dwindling economies produced by wealth and wage inequality.

It wouldn't be too surprising if we have a real world answer to OP's question before long.

Bitcoin will definitely retain its value better than overprinted and hyperinflated fiat currencies. I think bitcoin also has advantages over precious metals or bonds which could see its value skyrocket in times of recession/depression. The real question is whether state based regulation would condemn or embrace bitcoin and crypto currencies.

Would nations like the USA embrace bitcoin as a means of salvaging standard of living, were the dollar to devalue/hyperinflate. Or would they instead opt for a policy where they ban and repress bitcoin, even though it could be their best option for economic prosperity and stability. And also how effective/ineffective would attempts at bans or regulation be.
2603  Economy / Economics / Re: INFLATION IN THE UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES on: September 26, 2019, 10:12:16 PM
This topic invokes something known as imperialism.

The hierarchy of nations is defined within social order resembling a caste system. Wealthy and powerful nations retain their status through adopting measures to ensure poor(er) nations are unable to elevate their own standards and become competitive. This is reflected by leaders of underdeveloped countries receiving financing and support from foreign powers in exchange for guarantees to keep the population repressed.

As mentioned, the end goal of imperialism is to limit competition between wealthy and poor nations, to guarantee the wealthy retain their status as king of the mountain. It enforces the status quo of the wealthy remaining rich, and those living in poverty remaining poor. This is one reason why many brutal and repressive dictators are found to receive billions in support from foreign sources. It is cheaper for wealthier nations to fund a dictator who is guaranteed to regress educational and economic standards so their country can never compete on a global scale. Cheaper than it would be to compete directly with said nation if they made a legitimate effort to strengthen their economy and elevate standard of living.

The second issue relates to design flaws in how governments are structured. Governments are structured as the largest and most powerful monopolies in the world. Any negative criticism that can be said about US big tech or amazon being a monopoly would apply far more to governments as they lack competition and are not incentivized to produce intelligent nor efficient solutions to problems.

Being a monopoly implies if state issued fiat currency hyperinflates, there are no alternative options. If governments implement poor economic policy or poor regulatory standards, there are no alternative options. The centralized design of state authority is flawed from inception due to it being monopolistic in origin and implementation.

One way to improve conditions relating to inflation would be for governments to issue more than one fiat currency to create a competitive environment. That way if one state issued fiat is poorly managed and devalues, there are other superior options for consumers to fall back on. Governments and leaders need a competitive environment to produce their highest quality work and demonstrate why they deserve to make decisions that affect the lives of millions.

Breaking up state monopolies and forcing them to compete on some level has potential to produce a superior state format in contrast with the way things are now.
2604  Economy / Economics / Re: Your favorite Youtube channels about finance and economics? on: September 26, 2019, 02:07:27 PM
  • Marko Whiteboard Finance
  • GoldSilver (w/ Mike Maloney)

2605  Economy / Economics / Re: The Latest Crypto Price Dip Is Fueled By Fake News Relating to Quantum Computers on: September 25, 2019, 05:21:07 PM
Lol!! Without going to the controversy whether Google has achieved quantum process of 53 Qubit power or not, I think there is no correlation at all! Quantum computer will have much larger scope for mankind, why would it be used to break the encryption of bitcoin only?? That's dumb thinking!


#1  Imagine that there is something known as a crypto currency.
#2  The term crypto is derived from the encryption technology upon which it is built on.
#3  A news story suggests quantum computer breakthroughs may soon be able to break this encryption.
#4  There is a massive 20% decline in the value of crypto currencies mere days after this news story is published.

Conclusion  People say quantum computer news relating to encryption standards potentially being vulnerable are 100% unrelated to the massive 20% price drop. Essentially you're saying that you think the encryption standards upon which bitcoin are built being potentially vulnerable would have zero effect on it?

You say quantum computers have a "larger scope for mankind" than breaking encryption. That's hilarious. What "larger scope" is that? I do not think you have an answer.

Writers of articles on blockchain and crypto websites said nothing about this quantum computer news.

Its not due to the news having zero effect on btc price. They simply didn't know about it.
2606  Economy / Economics / Re: The Latest Crypto Price Dip Is Fueled By Fake News Relating to Quantum Computers on: September 25, 2019, 09:49:34 AM
People have always tried to link news articles or other events to price drops/increases. It's something people will continue to do because they have no clue about how the charts have turned bearish af in the last couple of weeks with every touch that confirmed the bearish triangular formation. Statistically, the probability of them breaking out to the downside is 75ish%.

If you also look at the extremely low volumes, which is another solid indicator that a huge move is near, mainly because of how the range has been tightening (tigher range = less volatility = less volume), the market was due for a big move. Unfortunately for people, it went down instead of up, but it shouldn't have come as a surprise. Lower levels are due. DCA the market down is the way to go if you want to grow your stack.


Nearly every big bitcoin price move in history was fueled by a news story.

The same way many US tech corporations increased their stock price by more than 20% simply by announcing vague plans to pursue a project related to blockchains.

News events like SEC rulings on winklevoss ETF applications have always wielded by far the largest influence on BTC price movements.

Essentially you're investing and trading a commodity known as crypto currencies which rely heavily on encryption standards. You're claiming a news story about encryption standards being potentially broken via quantum computing has zero effect on the commodity you're trading.




#1 I was referring to quantum proof public keys, which are already ready today but have a few issues:

Public-key crypto that is secure against QC does exist, however. Currently, Bitcoin experts tend to favor a cryptosystem based on Lamport signatures.

#2 Again, there's a study saying that current ASICs are faster than theoretical quantum computers when it comes to mining because they're specialized:

We find that the proof-of-work used by Bitcoin is relatively resistant to substantial speedup by quantum computers in the next 10 years, mainly because specialized ASIC miners are extremely fast compared to the estimated clock speed of near-term quantum computers

So if this is accurate, Bitcoin doesn't really have to worry too much about getting 51%'d by quantum computers, or at least  not in the near future.

#3 Yeah, all I was saying is that I don't think a lot mainstream readers would be able to draw that connection, which is why I believe that it's unlikely for the price slide to be attributable to the news piece.


#1  Quantum keys merely increase the bitsize. It means you upgrade from SHA256 to SHA512 or a larger bitwise number. There's no guarantee that this would be effective against a true quantum computer, if one is ever created.

#2  Clock speed, optimization and a smaller silicon lithographic etching process in nanometers could be cited to claim protection against quantum brute forcing. But would any of those marketing claims withstand the reality of it? Its not something anyone is making an effort to place a guarantee on.

#3  There have been many many BTC price movements traders couldn't explain that were easily explainable by stories published in the news at the time.

I'll give you one example:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5142884.msg51040602#msg51040602

That news story could explain the recent spike in BTC price which traders also could not explain @ the time.
2607  Economy / Economics / Re: The Latest Crypto Price Dip Is Fueled By Fake News Relating to Quantum Computers on: September 25, 2019, 06:43:30 AM
#1 Not really. A new public key algorithm could be introduced with a simple soft fork

#2 current ASICs are faster (https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/11/09/quantum_computers_could_crack_bitcoin/) than projected quantum computer clock speeds.

#1 A new public key wouldn't defend against quantum brute forcing.

#2 Quantum computers attempt to achieve higher performance through increasing the data density of bits. Rather than exclusively utilizing binary digits with 0's and 1's as today's supercomputers do, quantum computers expand the number of base values utilized in the computational aspect of things. That's where their theoretical performance boost comes from.

A normal supercomputer could be characterized as a person who only has 2 fingers (bits) to count on. While a quantum supercomputer could theoretically have hundreds, thousands or more fingers (bits) which gives them a larger computational density.

I think quantum computers are equivalent to someone attempting to build a moped engine that can produce 200,000 horsepower while consuming the same amount of gasoline as a normal motor. They're supposed to be powered by breakthroughs in quantum physics which will likely never manifest.

I'm not sure mainstream readers would actually know that there could be a connection between quantum computers and Bitcoin unless it's explicitly mentioned in the article (and articles I've seen don't).

The entire premise of encryption is not that its unbreakable. But rather that it would take *too long* to break encryption for it to be feasible.

When tech corps like google release fake news claiming their "quantum computer" can solve problems in "200 seconds" that would take a normal supercomputer "10,000" years to solve.

That is a direct reference to existing encryption standards. That is a definite connection imo.

i agree, it is a matter of technical, there was a sideways trading last days, margin were low, and stop loss triggering enforced decrease, since there was a tone of them within low margin from last week stable price, and that was the main reason for the dip to go this down, we will see how this is going to play further

here is a link to support this opinion
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-price-slides-1000-in-30-minutes-after-margin-calls-at-bitmex


The quoted source says:

Quote
A trader, who wished to remain anonymous, said the price drop may have been exacerbated by margin calls and contract liquidations on Bitmex

Usually when this type of topic arises, people point out how single exchanges like bitmex do not represent a substantially significant trading volume. Not enough collective volume to significantly affect the value of bitcoin. There's a corresponding tendency towards arbitrage trading when the value of one commodity is significantly lower on one exchange than it is on another, which also helps to naturally prevents that occurrence via normal market mechanics.

Exchanges affecting price and volume are more typically associated with exchanges that historically carried no commissions on trades. That made it more feasible for market and price manipulation to be effective.

It makes plenty of sense for leveraged short calls on bitmex to concide with fake news that is likely to negatively affect bitcoin's price within the normalized vein of insider trading we've long witnessed in crypto trading. I think that is the most likely conclusion, and the one that will be adopted as more information becomes available.

Although there would seem to be a lot of coordinated market manipulation involved which traders might recognize. In terms of short selling and fear associated with most not being aware of the cause behind the price reduction.

2608  Economy / Economics / Re: The Latest Crypto Price Dip Is Fueled By Fake News Relating to Quantum Computers on: September 25, 2019, 04:44:18 AM
Hello Hydrogen, i don't think google's quantum computer is behind this price drop. I know it looks like a panic move but if quantum computer break bitcoin we can recover it with an update and a hardfork.


If bitcoin's encryption is broken, it could take years before its fixed. If it is ever fixed. Encryption being broken in crypto currencies is a doomsday scenario. The only true fix to true quantum computers could be quantum level miners utilizing quantum level encryption.

I agree with notions that quantum computers will never become a reality. There is only so much functionality that can be built into silicon or chips made with other materials. Whether limited by voltage, clock frequency or data density. I think there are hard physical and theoretical limits which could prevent quantum computers from reaching the standards their marketing brochures claim are possible.

#1 Google did not say anything like that in the second part of your phrase.

#2 No fake news and speculation. And nowhere in the crypto-forums this news was presented so much, but to those singles asked about effect on crypto, they clearly explained that this was not connected with crypto. At least not in the coming years. I did not see any significant interest in this news. Talked a bit and forgot.

#3 And this has nothing to do with the fall.


#1  Encryption functions on the basis it would take too long to brute force. Google's claim they can solve problems in "200 seconds" that would normally take "10,000 years" directly implies they are poised to break the encryption standards that technologies like bitcoin are built upon.

#2  Where was it "explained" that this news is "not connected" with crypto?

#3  "This has nothing to do with the fall." Based on what? I have seen nothing credible to suggest otherwise.
2609  Economy / Economics / Re: The Latest Crypto Price Dip Is Fueled By Fake News Relating to Quantum Computers on: September 25, 2019, 03:49:28 AM
The piece of news from google was a couple days ago, there's no connection between that and todays 'dip'. The price was going sideways for too long, expectations for Bakkt were too high, and we're seeing a large decrease in price following weeks of stability. We might go back to ~$10k but it may 'dip' again.



This excerpt from the article gives the false impression quantum computers will soon break the encryption, technologies like bitcoin are built upon.

Quote
"While our (quantum) processor takes about 200 seconds to sample one instance of the quantum circuit 1 million times, a state-of-the-art supercomputer would require approximately 10,000 years to perform the equivalent task," the researchers said.

Google's quantum computer, dubbed "Sycamore," contained 53-qubits, or "quantum bits," a measure of the machine's potential power. The team scaled back from a 72-qubit device, dubbed "Bristlecone," it had previously designed.

The researchers estimate that performing the same experiment on a Google Cloud server would take 50 trillion hours—too long to be feasible. On the quantum processor, it took only 30 seconds, they said.

Keep in mind many large investors and holders of bitcoin lack technical backgrounds. They don't know this is fake news.

From an investment perspective, many will read the article and immediately dump crypto believing its security is in jeopardy.

News doesn't travel nor disseminate instantaneously. It can take days for the effects of news stories like this one to manifest. Crypto was not explicitly nor directly mentioned in the article and many could read it without making a connection for how it could potentially affect bitcoin markets.

Significant dips in bitcoin's price have always been correlated with fake news releases. Most notable was fake news about tether being "market manipulation". They investigated tether for more than a year and never found any evidence suggesting market manipulation was occurring.

It is very common for spikes in bitcoin's value to be followed by some form of news story designed to keep its price contained.
2610  Economy / Economics / The Latest Crypto Price Dip Is Fueled By Fake News Relating to Quantum Computers on: September 24, 2019, 07:25:18 PM
Quote
Google Claims ‘Quantum Supremacy,’ Marking a Major Milestone in Computing

In what may be a huge milestone in computing, Google says it has achieved "quantum supremacy," an experimental demonstration of the superiority of a quantum computer over a traditional one.

The claim, made in a new scientific paper, is the most serious indication yet that the promise of quantum computers—an emerging but unproven type of machine—is becoming reality, including their potential to solve formerly ungraspable mathematical problems.

Essentially, Google purports to have pulled off a stunt on a quantum computer that no classical machine—not even the world's most powerful supercomputer—can replicate.

Fortune obtained a copy of Google's paper, which was posted to NASA.gov earlier this week before being taken down. The Financial Times first reported the news.

A Google spokesperson declined to confirm the authenticity of the paper and its results. NASA did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

A source at Google familiar with the situation suggested, however, that NASA accidentally published the paper early, before its team's claims could be thoroughly vetted through scientific peer review, a process that could take anywhere from weeks to months.

If the paper holds up under the scrutiny of the scientific community, it will herald a watershed moment in quantum science. Its central claim counters doubt that some unforeseen law of nature may prevent quantum computers from operating as hoped.

"Quantum speedup is achievable in a real-world system and is not precluded by any hidden physical laws," the Google researchers write.

Further, they predict that quantum computing power will "grow at a double exponential rate," besting even the exponential rate that defined Moore's Law, a trend that observed traditional computing power to double roughly every two years.

The experiment

The experiment described in the paper sampled randomly generated numbers produced through a specialized scenario involving quantum phenomena. The researchers said they determined that their quantum computer beat regular computers at the task, which involved calculating the output of certain specialized circuits.

"While our processor takes about 200 seconds to sample one instance of the quantum circuit 1 million times, a state-of-the-art supercomputer would require approximately 10,000 years to perform the equivalent task," the researchers said.

Google's quantum computer, dubbed "Sycamore," contained 53-qubits, or "quantum bits," a measure of the machine's potential power. The team scaled back from a 72-qubit device, dubbed "Bristlecone," it had previously designed.

The researchers estimate that performing the same experiment on a Google Cloud server would take 50 trillion hours—too long to be feasible. On the quantum processor, it took only 30 seconds, they said.

"Quantum processors based on superconducting qubits can now perform computations...beyond the reach of the fastest classical supercomputers available today," the researchers write. "To our knowledge, this experiment marks the first computation that can only be performed on a quantum processor."


Outlook

Businesses are hoping the advancement of quantum computers—by tech giants such as Google, IBM, and Intel, as well as startups such as Rigetti Computing—will lead to unprecedented scientific and technical breakthroughs in the coming years. They're eyeing applications from new chemical reactions for the development of drugs, fertilizers, and batteries, to the improvement of optimization algorithms and mathematical modeling.

As exciting as Google's result is, other researchers caution against overhyping it, fearing that inflated expectations of imminent advances will lead to a popped bubble.

Dario Gil, head of IBM Research, advises against using quantum supremacy as a metric with which to measure progress in the field. "The experiment and the 'supremacy' term will be misunderstood by nearly all," he told Fortune.

Gil described the experiment as a highly special case "laboratory experiment" that has "no practical applications." He added, "Quantum computers will never reign 'supreme' over classical computers, but will rather work in concert with them, since each have their unique strengths."


Jim Clarke, Intel Labs' director of quantum hardware, called Google's update "a notable mile marker." He said that "a commercially viable quantum computer will require" many R&D advancements before becoming a reality.

"While development is still at mile one of this marathon, we strongly believe in the potential of this technology," Clarke added.

The Google team, which first wrote about their goal in a Nature article two years ago, appears to be more hopeful about the short-term prospects of its findings. "As a result of these developments, quantum computing is transitioning from a research topic to a technology that unlocks new computational capabilities," the researchers write.

"We are only one creative algorithm away from valuable near-term applications."

https://fortune.com/2019/09/20/google-claims-quantum-supremacy/

....


Google claims they achieved "landmark success" with quantum computers which could break the encryption protecting crypto currencies like bitcoin within the near future. Not only are these claims dubious and ambiguous in nature. They are also unverified and not yet subject to peer review. The claims are also likely to be very misleading as mentioned by Dario Gil in the last bolded quotation in the article.

I don't know how long it will take for the general public to catch on to this news story being a likely fabrication and embellishment. Previous news stories about the price of bitcoin being "artificially manipulated" by tether were by all indications smear pieces published to satisfy political agendas in undermining the public's trust in crypto. As were many other hit pieces published by the media which has typically revealed an unfair bias and prejudice against bitcoin and crypto in general.

FT.com the website on which this news story was 1st published also has a terrible reputation imo in terms of them being one of the worst media outlets for reporting on finance.
2611  Economy / Economics / Re: The Bitcoin Giveaway Project on: September 18, 2019, 02:49:37 AM
This is a beautiful project but how will you going to identify those people that they will not pretend innocent about Bitcoin?

I lurk on social media and mixed martial arts / anime forums. There are a few people I follow who I know have zero experience or knowledge of crypto. I offer free BTC if they make a free wallet on blockchain or electrum. Them give links to places they can exchange for gift cards or apply for virtual cards like bitpay and blockcard. Wire transfer is the last option I mention.

How much free bitcoin you've been giving out to each individual?

So far I gave away 0.03 BTC total. It should be more than that. There are many I offer free btc to who declined as they did not know how to use it or had a lot of pride and didn't want a hand out.

I acknowledge many of the negatives others have mentioned for why it might have zero impact. Hopefully if people have good experiences with crypto it might help to counter the negative view about crypto solely being utilized by drug dealers, criminals or money launderers that is common with those who have zero knowledge or experience.

I think the best strategy could be to give crypto to the unbanked or those who can't qualify for a bank account. That demographic could be the most likely to utilize and embrace crypto over the long term within a necessity being the mother of invention theme. I haven't worked out a reliable method of how to approach that. Also I'm a bit poorer than I was when I was giving away a lot of BTC so this is on hold for me. Although if others decide to pursue it I wish them success.
2612  Economy / Economics / The Bitcoin Giveaway Project on: September 13, 2019, 11:54:00 PM
I've been giving btc away for free to people who have zero experience or knowledge of crypto, in an effort to spur on mass adoption and raise awareness of what we all know to be innovative and amazing technology.   Smiley

If I had unlimited resources and connections, I might target celebrities and internet personalities with a lot of followers. Offer them free bitcoin to publish youtube clips on their experiences using crypto to get the word out there. Being far more limited in scope, the best I can do is to try to find nice people, give them free btc and hope they have a good experience spending it.

There are small business owners I've seen who are fustrated with payment merchants like paypal allowing reversal of transactions nearly a month after payment is made. While crypto isn't perfect, it still has many advantages which make it attractive on a standalone basis without marketing or hype being necessary. I think more people would bitcoin if they only had prior experience with it. In an ideal setting, one person using bitcoin could tell 10 others about their experience using it. Those 10 might tell 100. Those 100 might tell 1,000. And before you know it, we've achieved exponential growth. lol

What are everyone's thoughts on this? Any recommendations for a strategy or format which might be utilized in an effort to help crypto mass adoption?
2613  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: What made satoshi go for sha256? on: September 12, 2019, 07:18:28 PM
Out of all possible options at the time, why did he go for sha256 given its ties to NIST/NSA?



There wasn't a big political agenda pushing default backdoors and standardized encryption defeating measures back when Satoshi developed bitcoin, the way there is now.

I'll give you one example.

Quote
US attorney general William Barr says Americans should accept security risks of encryption backdoors

U.S. attorney general William Barr has said consumers should accept the risks that encryption backdoors pose to their personal cybersecurity to ensure law enforcement can access encrypted communications.

In a speech Tuesday in New York, the U.S. attorney general parroted much of the same rhetoric from his predecessors and other senior staff at the Justice Department, calling on tech companies to do more to assist federal authorities to gain access to devices with a lawful order.

Encrypted messaging has taken off in recent years, making its way to Apple products, Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, a response from Silicon Valley to the abuse of access by the intelligence services in the wake of the Edward Snowden revelations in 2013. But law enforcement says encryption thwarts their access to communications they claim they need to prosecute criminals.

The government calls this “going dark” because they cannot see into encrypted communications, and it remains a key talking point by the authorities. Critics — including lawmakers — and security experts have long said there is no secure way to create “backdoor” access to encrypted communications for law enforcement without potentially allowing malicious hackers to also gain access to people’s private communications.

In remarks, Barr said the “significance of the risk should be assessed based on its practical effect on consumer cybersecurity, as well as its relation to the net risks that offering the product poses for society.”

He suggested that the “residual risk of vulnerability resulting from incorporating a lawful access mechanism is materially greater than those already in the unmodified product.”

“Some argue that, to achieve at best a slight incremental improvement in security, it is worth imposing a massive cost on society in the form of degraded safety,” he said.

The risk, he said, was acceptable because “we are talking about consumer products and services such as messaging, smart phones, e-mail, and voice and data applications,” and “not talking about protecting the nation’s nuclear launch codes.”

The attorney general said it was “untenable” that devices offer uncrackable encryption while offering zero access to law enforcement.

Barr is the latest in a stream of attorneys general to decry an inability by law enforcement to access encrypted communications, despite pushback from the tech companies.

In a rebuttal, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) said the attorney general’s remarks were “outrageous, wrongheaded and dangerous.”

“If we give this attorney general and this president the unprecedented power to break encryption across the board burrow into the most intimate details of every American’s life – they will abuse those powers,” the senator said.

The U.S. is far from alone in calling on tech companies to give law enforcement access.

Earlier this year U.K. authorities proposed a new backdoor mechanism, the so-called “ghost protocol,” which would give law enforcement access to encrypted communications as though they were part of a private conversation. Apple, Google, Microsoft and WhatsApp rejected the proposal.

The FBI inadvertently undermined its “going dark” argument last year when it admitted the number of encrypted devices it claimed it couldn’t gain access to was overestimated by thousands.

FBI director Christopher Wray said the number of devices it couldn’t gain access to was less than a quarter of the claimed 7,800 phones and tablets.

Barr did not rule out pushing legislation to force tech companies to build backdoors.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/23/william-barr-consumers-security-risks-backdoors/


For those who read the above article, they might get the impression governments have a vested interest in wanting backdoors built into everything that allows technologies like bitcoin to function. Any platform or service which enables security measures like 2FA to exist are things governments want standardized backdoors built into.

Not only do state authorities support this as a de facto standard, they want it without any safeguards, transparency or accountability process which might ensure that it is not abused or exploited for immoral purposes.

In that when government agencies claim new encryption standards must be devised to keep end users safe from quantum computing, it does somewhat contradict this massive push we see towards standardized backdoors and default exploits being built into everything.

Which isn't to say that there haven't been similar standardized encryption defeating measures in the past. The NSA pushed something called the clipper chip which was encryption with built in surveillance back in the 1990s. It was axed before it was ever deployed. Microsoft's initial version of windows vista was intended to contain built in surveillance of end users, which was discontinued after massive public backlash. There have been similar campaigns in past eras. Just nothing like the massive effort we're seeing today.
2614  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Bitcoin’s race to outrun the quantum computer on: September 11, 2019, 08:39:53 PM
If you are paranoid about the outcome of this US sponsored competition to come up with encryption standards, then you should be paranoid about Bitcoin's SHA256, Tor or anything else that came out of US related activity.

In any case there's no real reason to worry about any of this, quantum computing as it is today it's just a meme. I would stick to SHA256 and plan for a NIST alternative in the future if necessary.. and non-US stuff doesn't necessarily mean safer anyway. It just has to be peer reviewed by as many independent and widespread people as possible.

Satoshi most likely did the right thing at not using something more exotic, it could have backfired, SHA256 was the most widespread with hardware support and timetested, peer-reviewed by cryptographers.


This being the anniversary of the september 11th World Trade Center attacks. It should be remembered that the official report attributing the destruction of buildings to office fires was drawn up by NIST (National Institute of Science and Technology). The 9/11 report NIST released was NOT open to peer review by architects, structural engineers or anyone with the academic or professional credentials who might normally peer review that type of report.

Not only does NIST have a history of publishing controversial findings as their initial 9/11 publishing containing "pancake theory" was wholly debunked by engineers across the globe. They also have a history of producing work that is completely closed to peer review or any form of accountability process.

Quantum computing is pseudoscience imo. There is no real quantum computing threat or crisis aside from media gaslighting and sensationalism. What we're witnessing is the typical process by which crisis is artificially manufactured to push agendas.
2615  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Bitcoin’s race to outrun the quantum computer on: August 22, 2019, 04:22:20 PM
Quote
The world’s best cryptographers meet this week to compete in a U.S.-sponsored challenge to create a quantum-resistant standard.

Want to steal some Bitcoin? All you need to do is find your victim’s 16-character public key and calculate their private key by solving something called an “elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem.” No sweat! With a regular computer, that’ll take you around 50 million times the amount of time the universe itself has left—around 0.65 billion billion years.

Ah, but with the right quantum computer, able to process information at speeds exponentially faster than today’s supercomputers? Suddenly, what seems uncrackable becomes child’s play, able to be broken in under 10 minutes.

The quantum-computing problem is nothing new to crypto, and many experts believe we have at least a decade or more to come up with quantum-resistant cryptography. However, some observers say that recent and unexpectedly fast advances are causing the time horizon to dramatically shrink. The most aggressive estimate says that bitcoin will be hackable by 2027, according to Fact Based Insights.

“We moved the state of the art more in the last two years than it has progressed in the last 15 or 20,” says Stewart Allen, Chief Operating Officer at IonQ, a company that claims to make some of the most powerful quantum computers in the world, in an interview with Decrypt.

On Thursday, top cryptographers will meet in Santa Barbara at the University of California for the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Post Quantum Cryptography semi finals. The finalists of the NIST competition will be announced in the months after the conference, though it might take years before the winner is annointed. Cryptographers say the standards that result represent blockchain’s best hope for resisting the rapidly encroaching power of quantum computers.

”If someone cracked your key, they could do anything they wanted,” Rob Campbell, President at Baltimore,Maryland-based Med Cybersecurity, told Decrypt. Anyone with sensitive information on the blockchain—cash, personal data, medical records—is at risk. With that sort of information, quantum hackers could “forge your name, take your assets,” and, if there’s medical data to be found, maliciously “triple your dose,” said Campbell. “It’s an open door.”

Take the Bitcoin blockchain: an unencrypted public key is sent along with every bitcoin transaction, and left unencrypted during the time it takes for the network to confirm the block, around ten minutes. That’s theoretically more than enough time for a quantum-equipped hacker to calculate a private key from the public key and replace the recipient’s address with his own.

Que Quantum?  

Transistors in conventional computers capture data in terms of 1s and 0s. Is the sky blue today? If it is, 1. If not, 0. Computing is essentially combinations of these calculations: have enough transistors, you can compute almost anything.

With quantum computers, it’s possible for the same input, called a qubit, to represent both 0 and 1 at the same time, a non-binary state known as “quantum superposition”—think Schrödinger's dead-and-alive cat. This makes quantum computers exponentially more powerful; one lone, superpositioned qubit can handle the processing load of at least two full-sized transistors on a regular computer.

Using modified versions of “Shor’s algorithm,” a quantum algorithm that rapidly turns large numbers into prime factors, hackers could reverse the process that makes private keys so difficult to crack.

But at the moment, the best quantum computer is probably Google's Bristlecone quantum computer, which has 72 qubits. Miruna Rosca, a PhD student in post-quantum cryptography, tells Decrypt you’d probably need around 4000 qubits to break current cryptographic algorithms.

So how long do we have?
IonQ’s Allan, who creates quantum computers for a living, speculates it’ll take about a decade for post-quantum cryptography to become an issue. By then, he reckons, someone will probably have developed a quantum-resistant blockchain. Danny Ryan, a core researcher at Ethereum, thinks the same: “This isn't really a meaningful problem in the next 10 years and likely not for 20 to 30. That said, we tend to be bad at estimating things like this so we should be ready to transition sooner rather than later.”

But others say the problem requires immediate attention, and that—beyond the threat to Bitcoin—quantum computing could pose a major cybersecurity threat. Med Cybersecurity’s Rob Campbell says that a government armed with quantum decryption software could read all the world’s secrets.

A U.S. Navy signal officer by training, Campbell’s time in the classified research and development world has taught him that secret government technologies often outpace commercially available technology. “We were decades ahead of the commercial world,” he said. “We didn’t want any potential adversaries to know what our capabilities are.”

Even if Campbell’s claims seem ambitious, he points out that if an enemy security agency scrape all of your encrypted data today—which they certainly could—they’ll be able to decrypt all that data once they’ve built a powerful enough quantum computer. That’s enough to make developing quantum-resistant cryptographic techniques an issue of national security.

In any case, the arms race for quantum supremacy is well underway: China just spent $10 billion on a research center for quantum computers, and the U.S. has pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the field.

Quantum-resistant techniques
Quantum computing can be just as effective for cryptographers as it is for hackers. Unobserved, superpositioned particles exist in multiple states, but when detected, they “collapse” to one point in space-time. Quantum cryptography has the same properties; because the protons that make up an encoded transaction shift upon observation, a successful attacker would have to break the laws of physics to intercept it.

This makes information encoded at the quantum level resistant to, among other things, so-called “man in the middle attacks,” where attackers intercept the transmission itself without having to decrypt the key.

A few blockchains claim to apply quantum-resistant techniques to ensure signatures and hashes remain encrypted, including QRL, IOTA, HyperCash, and Starkware. But with quantum computing still in its formative years, it’s difficult to determine the strength of these claims.

Until a quantum-resistant algorithm is tested and accepted by the wider academic community, there’s no assurance that any of these blockchains will be resilient enough against quantum computers. Scientists like Campbell are waiting on the results of next week’s NIST competition at UCAL-Santa Barbara; the final winners might not be announced for a few years, however. NIST tentatively expects drafts for standardisation will be completed around 2022.

“These winners are considered to be the best candidates on Earth and will likely go on to be standard cryptography and will be used by most of the planet,” says Campbell.

But developing the algorithm might not be the difficult part for large blockchains like Ethereum or Bitcoin. Whereas owners of centralized protocols can update the system as they please, blockchains, democratic by nature, require broad consensus among many thousands of miners to pass an upgrade.

In the case of an upgrade, all wallets that aren’t quantum-resistant become vulnerable to attack. That includes the 1 million bitcoins mined by Bitcoin’s pseudonymous inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto—if those aren’t migrated to a new, quantum-resistant wallet, they’re treasure for the first person with a powerful enough quantum computer.

“If high powered quantum computers appeared tomorrow,” said Ethereum’s Ryan, “we'd have many more problems than just the security of our blockchains.”

A 2019 National Academy of Sciences report concludes that, even if quantum computing is about a decade off, prioritising research is necessary to minimize “the chance of a potential security and privacy disaster.” Best get cracking, then.

https://decrypt.co/8498/bitcoins-race-to-outrun-the-quantum-computer

....


Many aspects of this initiative would appear to be political and agenda based rather than technologically or scientifically motivated. Like artificial intelligence, recent breakthroughs in brute forcing have come mainly from innovation associated with smaller nanoscale fabrication process of semiconductors.

We've witnessed many calls from political figures for corporations like apple to explicitly build backdoors into encryption standards used by iphones. Governments around the world would appear to unanimously support wholesale decryption defeating backdoors built into products ranging from smart phones to routers to operating systems.

In that the spirit of this competition would appear to run contrary to the status quo.

The excerpt below raises interesting questions.

Quote
Scientists like Campbell are waiting on the results of next week’s NIST competition at UCAL-Santa Barbara; the final winners might not be announced for a few years, however. NIST tentatively expects drafts for standardisation will be completed around 2022.

These winners are considered to be the best candidates on Earth and will likely go on to be standard cryptography and will be used by most of the planet,” says Campbell.

Maybe this competition is intended to create encryption standards utilized by the entire world that have backdoors or vulnerabilities specifically engineered into them?

It could be a decent security practice to avoid whatever encryption standards are produced as a result of this?
2616  Economy / Economics / Re: FedNow - Crypto Killer or Signs of a weakening Fed Res? on: August 15, 2019, 10:50:20 AM
Do you know how feminists are prone towards slogans such as "keep your politics out of my vagina". I suspect if they were involved in crypto their slogan could be "keep your politics out of my blockchain" instead. 

Institutions like the federal reserve could be too politically polarized to develop a functionally objective system of financial exchange. The theoretical ceiling for designing a payment system could be one completely devoid of politics the way bitcoin's design was created.

That's not to say they don't have advantages. Large entities like the fed could offer accounts that are insured. This could be one advantage they have over other crypto payment systems in terms of hacked accounts and stolen funds being insured up to a certain dollar amount the way bank accounts in the US are insured by the FDIC, etc.

In terms of disadvantages, I vaguely seem to recall it being mentioned the fed profited approximately $40 billion dollars from running the bank bailout and TARP bill back around 2008. Those large profit margins could be a drawback which prevented a fed based blockchain from being competitive with bitcoin and other crypto currencies offering relatively low cost and low rates.

We'll have to wait until more details emerge on the fed's design for this system. Given the relatively unified front which banking cartels present to the world, I think its pretty safe to say the fed won't release a product that makes all other banking systems obsolete. Their strategy could be to rely more on brand name recognition, a lower bar to entry on mass adoption and things like insurance which most crypto products do not offer.
2617  Economy / Economics / Re: Can Libra Disrupt The Financial/Economic System? on: July 31, 2019, 05:46:41 PM
Libra done correctly has potential to make the world love alt currencies. It could bridge technology and generation gaps as the best platform for driving bitcoin mass adoption the world has ever seen. Imagine facebook apps and games paying out rewards in libracoin. With good exchange and retail support that could represent an ideal introduction to crypto, HODLers have been dreaming off since early adoption. It could allow facebook users to easily accumulate and spend digital currency, illustrating advantages crypto enjoys over banks and credit card companies who often utilize obsolete and inferior technology.

I think there is definitely potential in libracoin.

Competition breeds innovation. I would much prefer consumers and crypto end users to determine whether libracoin can occupy a useful niche in the cryptosphere than regulators, experts, analysts, critics or enforcing bodies like the SEC who often push agendas or political narratives rather than facts.

If nothing else, libracoin could force banks and credit card companies to offer better terms, lower APR rates and juicier options through market competition.
2618  Economy / Economics / Re: Zimbabwe government trying to push for new Zimbabwe Dollar - Surprised? on: July 31, 2019, 05:19:14 PM
A stable and reliable currency is one central pillar supporting a nation's economy and business. When said stability and reliability are removed it dooms nations to economic ruin and poverty. We've witnessed this trend in places like zimbabwe and venezuela. The deterioration is remarkable in that it may be addressed by employing more responsible controls over the printing of paper money with perhaps a reduction on measures designed to reduce capital flight.

When I see countries like zimbabwe or venezuela struggling with hyperinflation I always think it could easily represent my future as an american.

There are many parallels which could be drawn between US fiscal / economic policy and circumstances leading to hyperinflation abroad. Similar rampant overprinting of fiat currency leading to historical devaluation. Fundamentally flawed attempts at the highest levels of government to tax and spend their way out of deficit and debt. Globally we have many banks defaulting. Many economies contracting or displaying negative growth.

Death tolls related to fiat hyperinflation in some regions could surpass fatalities related to guns, climate change or any hot topic covered by the media. There is a concerning and dire need for better information on fiscal monetary policy in terms of how the public can maintain their purchasing power and stored wealth while mitigating risks associated with overprinting and hard devaluation.
2619  Economy / Economics / Re: thoughts on companies becoming too powerful? on: July 31, 2019, 04:12:30 PM
Michael Crichton, the author of the original book Jurassic Park, wrote other works which became full production films in theaters. One of his books entitled Rising Sun spawned a movie starring Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes, touching upon topics related to OP's post in terms of global markets and american anti trust laws.

Crichton's approach was to compare large japanese conglomerates like matsushita with american corporations of the day. Japan, china and countless other countries have no laws against corporations becoming too large or powerful, allowing them to grow into massive private sector entities dwarfing american analogues which can be somewhat growth restricted via contrast.

There's a question as to whether nations like the US which sometimes adhere to anti-trust laws which were created before global markets existed can compete on a global scale. In china we currently see their government throwing free money at business sectors in an effort to give their own private sector an advantage over competition. In america we often see the opposite with state based regulation hiking taxes and working to reduce any advantages native business might enjoy. Over the long term, this could prove to be self destructive in terms of limiting sector growth in an era where foreign nations employ the polar opposite policy.

Precedents consumers commonly object to are not necessarily related to the size of companies. Rather increasingly common cases of predatory business practices associated with consolidated markets, price fixing and other negative trends.
2620  Economy / Economics / Re: Are there any communists in this forum? Is it compatible with crypto? on: June 14, 2019, 06:40:13 AM
Communism is a heavily centralized paradigm. In theory a single, central, entity wields an overwhelming majority of power and influence for the "good of all". A centralized crypto currency with parallels to communism could be developed. The question is, would it better or worse in comparison to crypto built upon a decentralized format. Observations and conclusions derived from the centralization versus decentralization debate in cryptosphere could apply to discussions regarding communism as a political system.

Implications relating to intrinsic structural conditions could share parallels between the two.

In practice, we've witnessed communist societies ban science fiction and proactively strive to stunt the development of new ideas. When it comes to new ideas and breakthroughs communist nations tend to rank poorly in these areas perhaps as a result of heavy censorship and promotion of industry wide mediocrity. We've witnessed this trend under stalinist russia and in recent communist states.

Crypto being a relatively new idea and breakthrough within the grand scheme of things, it may be more likely to be embraced by demographics which are more acclimated to the flow of new ideas and innovations. A communist society like china's where ideas are repressed in the form of science fiction may not cope well with change nor the implications presented by new technologies.
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