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1601  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: List of ETF filings this year in the US(NEW ETF ADDED) on: September 22, 2021, 03:16:02 PM
The approval of cryptocurrency ETFs in the USA by the SEC. Could coincide with deployment of the taproot amendment to bitcoin core, if they are approved near october 2021 as some claim. That's the most interesting aspect to recent rumors of the SEC taking a more open stance towards crypto ETFs. Along with possibly mounting pressure on regulators from an increasing number of crypto whales to grant ETFs a green light.

Other countries have used and enjoyed crypto ETFs for years now. While americans have always been barred from enjoying similar options. Its ironic how the "land of the free" offering far fewer financial freedoms and opportunities in contrast to foreign lands has become entirely normalized. Aside from the 2nd amendment and gun ownership, a case could be made for us having the fewest (financial) freedoms in the entire world.
1602  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Looking To Invest $50-$100 In New Projects Any Ideas? on: September 22, 2021, 02:08:59 PM
Well I'm looking for a 1000% gain and I don't think bitcoin will be as to give that type of return in the foreseeable future. At this point it would have to go to close to $500,000 and that seems somewhat unrealistic.


I've heard of people buying a $5 pack of carrot seeds. Growing carrots. Selling them at the farmer's market for $50 to maybe $100. For 10x to 20x returns.

There are small businesses that can be started with $50 to $100. It is possible to buy a lawn mower for maybe $100 to start a business mowing lawns. A camera can be bought for $100 to start a business with stock photography photos. A guitar or MIDI keyboard could be bought for around $100 to start a business composing music. A sewing machine might be had for $100 which could be used to start a business involving cosplay or fashion design.

For those who don't like businesses, there are a lot of small and profitable niches and side hustles. There are streamers, youtubers and podcasts that focus solely on side hustles and ways to make $$.

The time for buying tokens with guaranteed gains is usually in the months before bitcoin rewards halve. AFAIK that's the most reliable time to buy from a historical perspective.

The type of gains you're looking for are difficult to find with tokens in the short term. There are lots of ways to gain profit from investment. I hope you find the best method that works for you.
1603  Economy / Economics / Re: MassMutual Fined in GameStop Fallout on: September 21, 2021, 04:21:17 PM
This says MassMutual was fined $4.75 million for failing to monitor Keith Gill. (Slap on the wrist for them, aren't they a billion dollar investment firm?)

Quote
A MassMutual investment subsidiary has agreed to pay $4.75 million to resolve allegations by Massachusetts securities regulators including that it failed to supervise its agents, among them the social media persona "Roaring Kitty," whose online posts helped spark January’s trading frenzy in GameStop shares.

This says Keith Gill touted gamestop stock in his spare time, when he wasn't on the job. Could they monitor him if he did this when he wasn't at work? I would be interested to know how they were expected to accomplish this with reasonable policy.

Quote
Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin on Thursday said MML Investors Services failed to detect the activities of Keith Gill, who touted GameStop stock in his spare time while he was working at the company.

This says MassMutual failed to review social media usage or catch "excessive trading". What does excessive trading even mean? According to the article, it means he was making too much money and his individual trades were greater than $700,000, beyond the limit imposed by the company. Not really criminal, but treated as if it were a severe crime.

Quote
Galvin, the state’s top securities regulator, alleged MassMutual also inadequately supervised other agents and failed to review their social media usage or catch excessive trading in their personal accounts.

The reason the conspiracy theory movement was founded. Was due to people choosing not to accept these questionable explanations offered by the media.

If the media fails to explain things in a way that satisfies people. They will inevitably reject the media explanation, to form their own theories and conclusions. Necessity being the mother of all invention.
1604  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and protecting you wealth on: September 21, 2021, 04:09:18 PM
How would you defend yourself from inflation:
- Buy bitcoin
- Buy more commodities.
- Buy REITs or real state.
- Buy stocks of listed companies.
- Buy art.
- ... any other?


They all have their pros, cons and risks.

Gold, silver and precious metals are risky as central banks HODL and control an overwhelming proportion of supply. They can move the price anyway they like. Concerns of counterfeit bars and coins have plagued markets in recent times. Which have only contributed to market uncertainty and added fear for buyers and traders.

The risk of commodities is illustrated in recent cases where large commodities shipments were subject to fraud. The media has published many stories recently about shipping disasters and entire cargos lost. As if it were completely normalized for a few containers to fall overboard whenever ships went to sea. These sentiments deter the concept of commodities being a reliable asset for inflation protection. (For those who take delivery of commodities anyway which is generally the arrangement we would expect for long term inflation protection)

High inflation could be correlated with whales dumping their holdings en masse to protect themselves. And capital flight whereby the wealthy pull their money out of a failing nation's economy to invest it in the economy of a nation whose economy is more stable. Which rules out stocks and assets pegged to the economy. Something similar might be said of real estate, although to a lesser degree. In some cases the value of real estate could plummet far enough to become undervalued and a buy.

Bitcoin is definitely one of the better options.

....


Don't forget EU residents bought electronics (things like big screen TVs) in an effort to curb expected euro inflation, back when greece's debt issues 1st came to light.

At some point, it could be less about protecting the value of wealth and more about survival. Having basic necessities: food, water, shelter, electricity, etc could be the goals we end up striving for.
1605  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Politicians in US on: September 21, 2021, 03:41:05 PM
Texas has bitcoin mining operations powered by their newly constructed wind farms. Which some texas politicians like Ted Cruz have vocally supported, criticizing the federal government's efforts to regulate the crypto industry.

Quote
Ted Cruz says Senate can’t regulate crypto without knowing ‘what in the hell’ it is


August 10, 2021

Ted Cruz is lashing out at fellow senators amid a debate over tax enforcement requirements for crypto transactions — blasting his colleagues for trying to regulate without enough knowledge to define “what in the hell a cryptocurrency is.”

The Texas Republican slammed his counterparts on the Senate floor on Monday as he pushed to remove what he says are “harmful regulations” on the cryptocurrency industry that are included in the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Cruz argued it was wrong to regulate something they didn’t yet understand as the Biden administration supports a push to make cryptocurrency brokers disclose user transactions.

Critics argue that such regulations will ultimately kill the digital currency industry in the US.

“Let’s exercise a brief shining moment of common sense,” Cruz told the Senate on Monday.

https://nypost.com/2021/08/10/ted-cruz-says-senate-will-harm-cryptocurrency-industry-with-regulations/


Florida has also shown pro bitcoin support for their local economy.

For the most part republicans appear to lean pro bitcoin. Republican states are most likely to accept bitcoin and pass laws favorable to crypto. While democrats seem to lean in the opposite direction given new york's outright ban of tether and similar negative trends in democrat states.
1606  Economy / Economics / Re: Our Dear Bitcoin and its price movement. on: September 21, 2021, 02:06:13 PM
The price of bitcoin rose on El Salvador's bitcoin adoption.

....

Then the US stock market crashed, which the media attributes to a real estate sell off in china:



....

Bitcoin's latest decline seems to mirrors the stock market crash:



(Note how the shape of the decline of the stock market and bitcoin appear similar)

News of south korean tax hikes on crypto along with the introduction of strict USA style reporting requirements which forced the closure of some exchanges could also factor in.
1607  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: More women addicting problem in UK on: September 21, 2021, 01:46:03 PM
Its strange how the media can fool people into believing there is a legitimate crisis simply by spamming people with many news stories about gambling addiction everyday.

If someone were to drive past a homeless encampment, they would see a high percentage of homeless high on drugs, recovering from their last drug binge or brainstorming methods to fund their addiction. A percentage of them might gamble. But gambling would not be a real obstacle to them rejoining society or living stable and healthy lives. Substance abuse and mental issues which develop from substance abuse would be by far the largest problems. But none of these issues are acknowledged by the media. And so it is as if they do not exist.

The way the media portrays things, some might even believe that gambling addiction is the biggest problem the homeless and those living in poverty face. It is a perspective far removed from reality.



1608  Other / Off-topic / Re: Passive Income Sources on: September 21, 2021, 12:45:31 AM
Can you even withdraw BAT that you earn from your Brave browser without having to go through KYC?  Anyway, I'm not sure getting daily airdrops is a good way to get passive income--it certainly is passive, but what you get is of questionable value at best.  At least with PoS coins you're getting paid in kind and can sell the coin as long as there's some liquidity and an exchange that has it listed.  With tokens and airdrops you really have to receive enough to be able to sell at whatever the minimum amount is on an exchange--and that's assuming there's an exchange that lists the token.  NFTs are a whole different story.


Bad news:  KYC is mandatory.

Good news:  BAT can now be withdrawn through gemini exchange. Uphold no longer has a monopoly over brave browser BAT withdrawal. A lot of people had problems with uphold wallet not updating their BAT balance for months. Hopefully those issues clear up with the inception of another payment option.

...

The way splinterlands SPS airdrops work, there are 365 days of airdrops scheduled. We're 56 days into the 365 day cycle. Everyday for 1 year people will receive SPS depending on their holdings in game. Those who got in early and amassed large account holdings could earn $30+ a day for 1 year. The main downside is SPS losing value over time (similar to BAT). Most dump their SPS holdings expecting the price to diminish, there's no HODL incentive built into the mechanics of the token.

Some of the collectible card NFTs that are used in game, I bought for less than $5 months ago. Are worth more than $100 now. But to be honest, this is a fun thing for me. I never took it seriously as a money maker. And still don't. I haven't even tried to cashout my SPS or my NFTs to see what the process is like.

Its overflowing with options, in terms of NFT auctions and being able to rent out NFTs to other players. I wish more games would pursue a similar open market format supported by devs. Rather than being paranoid over in game market abuse and offering as few options as possible.


DRIPs are great, and those stocks I own that pay dividends are in DRIPs, not held in a brokerage.  But yeah, you have to have enough money to invest in them in the first place if you plan on retiring early.  But the power of compound interest is quite amazing.


Exactly.

Back when mixed martial arts was a more one dimensional sport. It was possible to earn consistently good compounding interest betting on fights. These days things are different though. With the unreliable judging and shenanigans its a lot harder now.
1609  Economy / Economics / Re: How would Bitconia look like? on: September 20, 2021, 02:30:06 PM
However, I am inclined to think that bitcoin needs a country. The value of bitcoin, the community and the influence that exerts could potentially make that possible when bitcoin reaches an even higher valuation (perhaps it would be possible even now). How would Bitconia look like? How would we get there?


In theory, such a place could resemble the pirate bay.

Located in "international waters" or "unclaimed land" where it would be "free" of the regulation, taxation or interference of nations.

Being a safe haven from overbearing financial and tax reporting requirements, and high taxation seem like two things that could be in demand soon.

A base on mars or the moon, could be what some were hoping for. I think mars has a 12 minute lag time for communications to travel from mars to earth, which could make it less feasible for mining bitcoin.

If a high tech city like Wakanda concealed behind holograms, existed on earth. It would make a great platform for crypto.
1610  Economy / Economics / Re: New regulation in South Korea has forced several exchanges to close on: September 20, 2021, 02:15:07 PM
The newly imposed strict reporting requirements, seem identical to the ones many americans have grown sick of.

A trend which could be related to americans renouncing citizenship in record numbers, immigrating to countries with low income taxes and none of the strict reporting requirements of countries like the USA and now south korea.

Quote
Wealthy Americans Are Renouncing Citizenship In Record Numbers

The number of Americans who renounced their citizenship hit a record high in 2020 and has continued to increase in 2021.

Andrew Mitchel, an international tax attorney who tracks the numbers, found there were 6,707 individuals who renounced their U.S. citizenship in favor of a foreign country in 2020, Axios first reported Thursday. That number is a 237% increase compared to 2019 and considerably higher than any year dating back to 1998.

https://dailycaller.com/2021/08/05/wealth-americans-renounce-citizenship-record-numbers/

The Biden administration (and their allies) failed to pass "minimum tax requirements" for the entire world earlier in 2021.

It looks as if they're still trying to expand their tax hike and strict reporting policies across the entire world on a nation by nation basis.
1611  Other / Off-topic / Re: Passive Income Sources on: September 20, 2021, 01:58:42 PM
Splinterlands collectible NFT card game is now offering passive income with daily SPS air drops. Unfortunately it suffers from the same problem brave browser has with BAT. People dump tokens ASAP and the long term value of the token depreciates over time with no HODL. Its still a good deal for accounts with larger holdings as some are earning $30+ per day in passive income.

There are still platforms like celsius around paying out good passive interest rates. If celsius seems like too good a deal to be true. I've recently heard that some of the deposited crypto on their platform is used by short sellers and similar demographics. I guess that's what the "catch" is.

For passive investments, I've always like DRIP (dividend reinvestment plans). They are cases of people retiring early and having success with it. There are plenty of stories of people making money here or there. But people making enough to retire seems like a next level thing.

1612  Economy / Economics / Re: Future economic fear of the rich and poor. on: September 20, 2021, 01:01:30 PM
who do you think has more fear about the future?

(A) The Rich man who has tasted the good things of life and enjoying the best, now he has to face the fear of the possibility of suddenly loosing all he possesses and becoming poor? Or

(B) The poor man who has not enjoyed anything in life yet, just surviving and facing the fear of an unknown future, thinking if he is ever going to be in a better position or the suffering is going to continue?



The rich fear the future enough to build elaborate bunkers in case of emergency.

While other income brackets refuse to believe their way of life can change, and take zero steps to prepare for crisis.

The rich are the first to know when a recession or economic crisis is coming. While other income brackets are uninformed and caught unaware by every recession or crisis that hits.

The rich recognize and respect the dangers of shifting markets and conditions. They channel their fear into following the news and being informed.

While other income brackets remain thoroughly convinced they should never read the news, as it only contains depressing stories. They believe politicians and governments exist to take care of all their problems, so that they can live their lives without ever paying attention to anything.

These are all generalizations but I think the wealthy demographic is the one that respects and fears negative trends of finance and economy the most.
1613  Other / Off-topic / Re: What do you think about youtube/twitch marketing? Is it ethical? on: September 16, 2021, 11:56:06 PM
Hosting giveaways are a creative form of marketing. One whose allure could be wearing thin due to them being so common, undocumented and unorganized.

I think what is needed to make them more legitimate is for the organization and logistics of it to be handled better. With more documentation and information. To become more normalized like lotteries or sweepstakes.

The main things are people want to know is that there were legitimate winners. Who are not associated or affiliated with those offering prizes. And that people receive what was promised.

In a worst case scenario, a youtuber could offer $50 in prizes to the best retweet. Make another account. Give the prize $ to their ALT account. Taking steps to document and verify that not being the case, is the ideal that should be pursued IMO.
1614  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation soaring in US and other countries gives good prospect to bitcoin on: September 16, 2021, 11:38:40 PM
I'll take a look at that video, but I have to say....it's made by Mike Maloney of GoldSilver (external link there), who's trying to sell you gold and silver.  And what do those folks always say?  Well, just look at all the articles linked to on coinflation.com.  They all basically say the same thing, and they're the same articles from 1, 3, 5, 10 years ago, just rewritten over and over.  The economy is in trouble; the dollar is backed by nothing; where's all the gold in the Fed's vault?; silver is going to $100/Oz., etc., etc.

So take that with a mountain of NaCl.


Most "approved" media sources are owned and funded by a tiny sliver of corporations. They're more biased, agenda pushing and unreliable than Mike Maloney Gold & Silver. Many youtubers and anonymous bloggers offer more independent and objective coverage of news and current events than big media enterprise.

I've followed Mike Maloney for years. I've watched his videos, analysis and breakdowns for years. His content has always been great. Despite being known for being into precious metals he doesn't push an agenda or narrative that aligns with his own self interests.


I am no fan of Biden, but he didn't start this mess.  Not that he's doing a damn thing to help it, but the problem was there well before he was even a presidential candidate.  

And yeah, inflation is ramping up and I'm afraid of where it's headed.  Hopefully wages keep pace with it, and hopefully the USD doesn't hyperinflate.  That's a lot of hope there.


If its not being caused by Biden's administration. What is causing it? Biden may have increased the US deficit by upwards of $10 trillion in less than 1 year. But its not his fault. Biden shut down the keystone pipeline which drastically increased oil and gasoline prices in the country. But its not his fault. The afghanistan withdrawal was exceedingly poorly handled. But its not Biden's fault.

Notice a pattern forming. I would be very interested to know why none of the specific actions Biden has taken which have had very negative consequences for the world, are not his responsibility.

I remember a time when the deficit increased $1 trillion when Trump in office and the media was crying about the deficit rising, saying Trump was the worst President ever.

Now Biden is introducing $2 trillion and $3 trillion dollar "infrastructure" spending bills, which would increase the deficit more than 5 times the amount it rose when Trump was President. And suddenly no one cares about the deficit anymore. The deficit is no longer a topic worth discussing when Biden is President.

Then of course, even if people are made aware of the facts, they turn a blind eye and pretend they don't exist. Facts, science and truth are completely irrelevant to most in this day and age. All that matters is being trendy and repeating the same headlines as the trendy people on social media and TV.

Trendiness is a prime directive of utmost importance. While legit science, knowledge and facts are deemed utterly irrelevant. This could be the real cause behind the majority of our negative societal and economic trends.

Looking around it seems far more important to repeat trendy headlines, than it does for people to be knowledgeable or accurate on critical topics that affect the lives of billions worldwide. The end result of this trend will be horrible for all of us, if it doesn't change.
1615  Economy / Economics / Re: Now UK is facing inflation so choose the best for you.. on: September 16, 2021, 11:23:50 PM
I think some of the cost hikes associated with rising food prices are on the supply side. The price of oil has increased. Which raises shipping costs that passed on to businesses and consumers. Over the last 2 years farmers have recorded poor crop harvests, which diminish supply and also contribute to price hikes.

The media can say its "inflation" to keep the public's eyes closed as to what the real causes are. Leaving people powerless to be literate on economic and financial issues. Those who want to appear smart on internet forums often spam the catch phrase: "correlation is not causation".

Where is the correlation or causation between food prices and inflation? Did the UK recently print fiat in significantly greater supply? Is there anyone who cares about knowing legitimate facts behind rising prices and current market trends.


1616  Economy / Economics / Re: Chinese construction Mega-Bankruptcy. Evergrande about to crash for 355B on: September 15, 2021, 11:01:27 PM
As far as I know, the reason behind the crash of Evergrande (and many other chinese business ventures, banks and businesses).

Involves CCP forcing CEO's like Jack Ma who founded & ran alibaba to step down. So they can be replaced with CCP loyalists who are simply inadequate to the task of successfully running a large enterprise.

There are many chinese capitalists who successfully found and run a large business venture in china. Who are forced to resign and step down. So that the chinese communist party can take over. That's the reason behind there being a long list of spectacular failures for large chinese businesses.

It is possible something similar is happening in the united states. Jeff Bezos may have been forced to resign from amazon. So that political special interests could seize control of it. Something similar may have been attempted with Elon Musk and tesla. Elon tweeted tesla would be guaranteed to fail without him as acting CEO.

There is considerably more political interference in the private sector today, than there was in years past.
1617  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation soaring in US and other countries gives good prospect to bitcoin on: September 14, 2021, 11:55:59 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGkpzt49aP4
Behind the Fed's Curtain, Something BIG is Brewing.

There's a crazy chart I saw in the background of that youtube clip that shows the extraordinary degree to which the US money supply is being inflated post 2020.



I guess this is what a Joe Biden economy looks like.
1618  Economy / Economics / Re: Boost of a countries economy on: September 14, 2021, 11:41:16 PM
The strength of an economy depends on how effectively it harnesses the creativity and inventiveness of its population.

Giving people more tools and greater options to start businesses, pay bills, buy equipment and achieve other necessary financial and business oriented goals. It reduces the barrier to entry for markets. Inventions like bitcoin make it easier for people to start and operate businesses out of their garage. Which could someday go on to become a corporate giant like google, apple or microsoft.

The statistic has often been quoted that small businesses and start ups account for upwards of 60% of new job creation. Giving small businesses and startups more financial tools which make it easier for them to start businesses are exactly what economies need to achieve growth which can be sustained.
1619  Economy / Economics / Re: Serious fundamental analysis / forecast on: September 14, 2021, 11:28:39 PM

Is there any halfway serious, i.e. insightful, fundamental analysis on Bitcoin and the crypto market?

Even a serious discussion here, but specifically taking into account MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT.

It seems like 90% of what you find online is either A) complacent TradFi or B) delusional libertarianism and Austrian fundamentalism.



The federal reserve owns a large majority share of US treasury bonds. Central bank supplied QE is credited with being responsible for more than 90% of US stock market trends since 2008.

Natural market mechanic analysis (macroeconomics) have not applied to markets for many years. Due to central banks expanding balance sheets to own a majority share of bonds and stocks (through investment bank QE).

Its difficult if not impossible to predict what governments or regulators response to cryptocurrencies will be. No one predicted el salvador recognizing bitcoin as legal tender. Its also impossible to predict what the response of hedge funds and whale investors will be. I don't know if anyone predicted or expected the recent high volume of bitcoin purchasing which led to its latest trend near 50k. Bitcoin is usually defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles. A departure from that would not fit its historical profile.

Long story short, I don't think you'll find any good macroeconomic analysis due to the relevant uncertainties and unexpected trends involved. Which lie outside macroeconomic contexts.
1620  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling Book/Website Suggestions ? on: September 14, 2021, 10:48:55 PM
Beat the Dealer by Ed Thorp is the blackjack book I've heard recommended the most. Its considered a classic.

https://www.amazon.com/Beat-Dealer-Winning-Strategy-Twenty-One/dp/0394703103

I haven't read many books on gambling. Would recommend steering clear of anything that teaches martingale strategy(which I suspect was devised by casino owners as a way to increase their profits). What is good content is anything involving the mathematical side of gambling. That can consistently be used to improve skill.
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