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2761  Economy / Speculation / Re: BITSTAMP eXchange wall Observer. second biggest and best exchange on: November 01, 2013, 03:37:52 AM
Why is it so quiet and calm... the suspense is killing me! Someone is buy or sell 10,000 bitcoins!!!

They are being bought, just not on the exchanges.
2762  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: November 01, 2013, 02:24:29 AM

Western Union should buy MtGox.
It would save both companies.
Both will die if they do nothing.


Damn good idea actually.  I gotta wonder if it is not to late for one or both of them already though.



I've been short NYSE:WU for a while as bitcoin eats away at their business.  If they make any major bitcoin purchase (MtGox would be ideal for them) I go long instead.  WU would give Gox all the MTL licenses it could ever want and compliance in most major economies worldwide.  In return, Gox would give WU a future.  Together they would be like localbitcoins on steroids, with branches globally and in most currencies.
WU also has the legal muscle to renegotiate the fees owed in the different jurisdictions and has been doing major investment in compliance and compliance workflow automations.  It is almost as if they are engaged to be married already.
2763  Economy / Economics / Re: the effects of fractional reserve on bitcoins value on: November 01, 2013, 01:32:45 AM
Sure, the market would be giving a bit on price, but the upside is pretty enormous.

In my opinion, the key would be to insure the deposits in a nominal amount of fiat. For example, the insuring entity (whether a company or the government) will insure deposits of BTC up to 70 USD/BTC. This number would have to be revisable periodically to keep it below the actual value of Bitcoin, but it would serve to give people a safer place to put their bitcoins to keep up with inflation via interest. It would also solve a lot of issues with capitalizing projects via bitcoin (buh-bye BTCJam).

Alas, this is only my wet dream. It's unlikely to happen in an acceptably regulated fashion.

I think I'll write a blog on this tonight. Share your ideas to help me.

I do this now, but with silver instead of dollars.  You can get no less than 4 oz silver bitcoin specie for each bitcoin (and currently a good bit more than that).  The QR code on the pieces creates a flexible market based bimetallic standard (gold standard / silver standard - but only silver is released so far), with a floor value of the nominal value (1 ozt silver / quarter bitcoin).

I would never be so bold as to guarantee a level of fiat currency against bitcoin (I'm not the central bank), but I certainly would with a commodity monetary form.  It is looking like the 2014 one ounce silver will be a bit-dime if things move forward as they appear to be which would put the floor value of bitcoin at 10 ounces silver .999 fine for the bitcoin specie.
2764  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: November 01, 2013, 01:21:36 AM
so what should we understand from this??

they are not cheaters but just fucked up by the system?


As annoyed as I am with Mt. Gox, that still strikes me as the strongest hypothesis.  The reason is still that it would make little sense for Mt. Gox to fuck up their reputation and marketshare when they had a damn good and very profitable thing going.


Having found the strongest hypothesis, what are the actions to derive (otherwise the search process is just
a big waste of time)?


If this hypothesis is the correct one, then inaction is the most appropriate course of action for me.  This was my best hypothesis before I risked the money I did with them, and it factored into a decision about how much money to put at risk here.  I would not have done so if I needed to see results within a certain time-frame.

To reiterate my posture:

 - having loss of access to a non-trivial sum of $$$ gives me a legitimate rational to attack the problems at their root (which I feel is probably the established financial corporations and the regulators they sponsor.)

 - the $5M (or $10M) of formerly Mt. Gox controlled value is now sitting in a pool that Mt. Gox cannot touch should they implode or decide to run.  I have a better chance of recouping my losses out of this pool since it is held by the the U.S. govt and I am a U.S. citizen.

 - It is perfectly possible that Mt. Gox figures out a way to overcome their issues eventually and the wire lands in my bank account someday with little fan-fare.  Mt. Gox's best bet is to agree to be a pliant honey-pot in exchange for return of their funds, and I think there is a fair chance that they will be offered that option and accept it.

The greatest good would be possible by perusing the first bullet point, but absent some cooperation from Mt. Gox, it is not very practical to do so.



Western Union should buy MtGox.
It would save both companies.
Both will die if they do nothing.
2765  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: November 01, 2013, 01:10:08 AM

I'm so proud I have 3 of these Wink


I like to spend them whenever I have time for a conversation about bitcoin, but then it is pretty easy for me to get more as I don't pay much for shipping.  Wink
2766  Economy / Collectibles / Re: New Bitcoin Specie by the makers of New Liberty Dollar on: October 31, 2013, 08:45:00 PM
I've been asked how many of these are out there...so:

Mintages so far:

FIRST STRIKE - 40 final
Satoshi Nakamoto whitepaper 5th anniversary - 100 final
First year of issue numbered, gold electroplated - 100 final
First year of issue unnumbered, gold electroplated - 1 final
Satoshi Nakamoto whitepaper, gold electroplated - 1 final

Silver Bitcoin Specie 1 toz Cold Hard Cash, standard issue 1804 3004
2767  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Should the Creator of Bitcoin come forward? on: October 31, 2013, 06:24:22 PM
the world just isn't ready for a talking alpaca that can shoot lasers out of his eyes.  Satoshi remains anonymous for our own good.

Its true: Satoshi, in his alpaca socks:

2768  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: October 31, 2013, 06:01:38 PM
You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price...

Luckily 2/3 is a gross overestimate.. Smiley

Still, selling anything without actual use for the proceeds is generally stupid. I bought 5000oz of silver but I already regret the deal because I would much rather have 1000+ additional BTC using today's exchange rate.

The silver is merchandise (Maple Leaf 1oz coins), anyone interested? (100oz minimum, EU dlwy, cheapest in EU)

I like my Bitcoin Specie more than the Maple Leafs Smiley  They are a bit easier to trade as they convert in real time to most active currencies.

Scan the QR and you will see what I mean.

And... they aren't a product of government but private enterprise.
Agora Commodities and Bitgild.com have them for sale.
Change the QTY to 5000 and you will see the price per piece drop down to where you might like it, as the premium will adjust with the quantity.
At 10K pieces, even better.
The folks on eBay are paying US$30-50 each, but I don't know why.
2769  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 31, 2013, 02:51:01 PM
Even after the big bad news from Western Union that dropped their stock yesterday, I'm not buying back my short position on NYSE:WU.
Long Bitcoin, Short WU unless and until WU buys MtGox and saves both WU and Gox, then I buy back and go long for the long bomb.

Seriously though, if Gox had WU's Money transfer licenses and global reach, and WU had... well...  bitcoin, they would both survive.  As it is they are both dieing.
If the goxxers here need any help putting that deal together, give me a buzz.  Smiley

If WU bought MTGox wouldn't they instantly lose all their US licenses and be liable for all fines the US wants to pin on MTGox for things that happened in the past?

WU would lose no licenses.  WU is already doing money transfer and have the channels in Washington to negotiate on the fines.  WU will be slain by bitcoin faster than they think, unless they do something.  This would be a big win for Gox and a big win for WU, if they can get to "yes" before their independent death spirals sweep them into the dustbin of history.

It would give Gox the largest localbitcoin franchise globally there is, and WU would cut costs tremendously.  All bitcoin holders would benefit.  Its win-win-win.
But... I'm betting they don't, and am holding my WU shorts until its a penny stock

And I'm holding my WU longs. If WU loses market share at the rate you're predicting, I'll profit way more from my Bitcoin holdings than I can ever lose of my (limited) WU investment.

If WU closes a bitcoin deal, you will win on both, if not, I will.  Either way we both win on bitcoin.  Smiley
2770  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 31, 2013, 02:49:58 PM
Even after the big bad news from Western Union that dropped their stock yesterday, I'm not buying back my short position on NYSE:WU.
Long Bitcoin, Short WU unless and until WU buys MtGox and saves both WU and Gox, then I buy back and go long for the long bomb.

Seriously though, if Gox had WU's Money transfer licenses and global reach, and WU had... well...  bitcoin, they would both survive.  As it is they are both dieing.
If the goxxers here need any help putting that deal together, give me a buzz.  Smiley

Hi-five!! I covered it right at the open and reshorted it on the bounce. Interesting future targets are Visa and Mastercard.

I went over the conference call transcript and interestingly there was no mention of bitcoin specifically, but they did say that the "competition" is becoming stronger.

Great minds think alike.
2771  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 31, 2013, 02:47:18 PM
Even after the big bad news from Western Union that dropped their stock yesterday, I'm not buying back my short position on NYSE:WU.
Long Bitcoin, Short WU unless and until WU buys MtGox and saves both WU and Gox, then I buy back and go long for the long bomb.

Seriously though, if Gox had WU's Money transfer licenses and global reach, and WU had... well...  bitcoin, they would both survive.  As it is they are both dieing.
If the goxxers here need any help putting that deal together, give me a buzz.  Smiley

If WU bought MTGox wouldn't they instantly lose all their US licenses and be liable for all fines the US wants to pin on MTGox for things that happened in the past?

WU would lose no licenses.  WU is already doing money transfer and have the channels in Washington to negotiate on the fines.  WU will be slain by bitcoin faster than they think, unless they do something.  This would be a big win for Gox and a big win for WU, if they can get to "yes" before their independent death spirals sweep them into the dustbin of history.

It would give Gox the largest localbitcoin franchise globally there is, and WU would cut costs tremendously.  All bitcoin holders would benefit.  Its win-win-win.
But... I'm betting they don't, and am holding my WU shorts until its a penny stock
2772  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 31, 2013, 01:39:20 PM
Even after the big bad news from Western Union that dropped their stock yesterday, I'm not buying back my short position on NYSE:WU.
Long Bitcoin, Short WU unless and until WU buys MtGox and saves both WU and Gox, then I buy back and go long for the long bomb.

Seriously though, if Gox had WU's Money transfer licenses and global reach, and WU had... well...  bitcoin, they would both survive.  As it is they are both dieing.
If the goxxers here need any help putting that deal together, give me a buzz.  Smiley
2773  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 31, 2013, 10:58:37 AM
And turns out yesterday was actually bigger than post silk road.
We might be going down/sidways over the next few days... but next week will be ridiculous.


It takes 2 to 4 weeks for a newcomer to learn about bitcoin, set up a Verified account and wire funds.
IMO the recent good news, press coverage and anticipation of new money is already reflected in the price.

So you expect selling to equal the anticipated new money?

Rather most participants are long(when the forum is full of 'to the moon' posts) anticipating newcomers to continue the price ascension. Buying now means paying a premium anticipating the new cash inflow, the proportion of incoming funds is the real question here. I doubt it will be a mass hysteria and buying spree like April. That's why it is usually wiser to sell on the news.

The proportion is the issue I agree.  There is not even US$2.5B in existing bitcoin.  Of that, much less is active.  Whether it gets swamped by inflow depends on the size of the wave.  I'd be happy for some consolidation though.
2774  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Why almost everything has to revolve around usa? on: October 31, 2013, 10:42:29 AM
Biggest army, most traded currency, the biggest part of the technology sector revolves around the companies in Silicon Valley plus it helps that
they control most of the media/internet/news. Plus if you read/speak in English you will get pointed to the USA time and time again.
If you're sick of the USA learn Chinese, Japanese or Arabic.

Actually no. China has the largest army, some 1.000.000 soldiers then USA, then USa, then India, North Korea.... Japan is the most technologically advanced country, even South Korea is more advanced then USA. Control of news and media is nothing compared to some other countries, and most of people living in USA don't even know how can news be controlled. English can point anyone to any English speaking country, some of them: UK, Ireland, Scotland, Australia, New Zealand, USA...
So, again English ≠ USA. And one more thing regarding how many people speak certain language
http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/most_spoken_languages.htm


America spends more on military then the next 10 countries combined.

If I buy a single car for 200.000$ and I you buy 20 cars for 5k each who will transport 100T faster considering you have 20 drivers? You ofc. China has 2.5mill soldiers atm and it can probably mobilise 20mill more in case of war. Also America spends some 700 billion on military while China spends 180 billion. So that's not even 4x more. Also keep in mind that average pay for their soldiers isn't even close to average pay for USA soldiers.


If you were to consider the number of "armed" people in the USA, 1.000.000 is a tiny number, so is 2.500.000.
2775  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 31, 2013, 09:43:07 AM
And turns out yesterday was actually bigger than post silk road.
We might be going down/sidways over the next few days... but next week will be ridiculous.


It takes 2 to 4 weeks for a newcomer to learn about bitcoin, set up a Verified account and wire funds.
IMO the recent good news, press coverage and anticipation of new money is already reflected in the price.

So you expect selling to equal the anticipated new money?
2776  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: FATCA, Japan and MtGox on: October 31, 2013, 04:33:57 AM
i think they extended this deadline but...

https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/blog/onesource/japan-signs-fatca-implementation-agreement/

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/treaties/Documents/FATCA-Statement-Japan-6-11-2013.pdf

 The participating Japanese financial institutions will request the U.S. taxpayer identification number of their U.S. account holders, and the consent of account holders for reporting. Annually, the financial institutions will report aggregate information about non-consenting U.S. account holders. Subsequent to receiving direct reports from the participating Japanese financial institutions, the U.S. may make group requests to the Japanese Ministry of Finance for information on recalcitrant account holders (non-consenting U.S. accounts and foreign reportable amounts paid to nonparticipating financial institutions that the reporting Japanese financial institution would have reported had it obtained customer consent).

This is the prelude to FBAR enforcement.
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/5481/real-compliance-getting-your-way-by-giving-in/

All those MTGOX accounts held by US Taxpayers with >US$10K of "value" may have up to 50% of that value moved into the US Treasury department.  To add insult to injury, not being able to get that value out of MTGOX and having it keep going up until you are over the 10K means filing the FBAR is going to matter.

Perhaps the US wants to be the largest state holder of bitcoins?
2777  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 10-25-2013 YCombinator: Silicon Valley's Ultimate Exit on: October 31, 2013, 04:10:36 AM
Specie drastically limits one's options when it comes to exit. I can move far more value through an international airport via a brainwallet than I can carry in gold or silver.

For that example, I heartily agree with you.  Having carried significant value of gold and silver through international airports, I can attest that it is not effortless.

Your example speaks to physical exit rather than monetary system exit.
No argument against brain wallets, I leave argument that to Gavin.
They each have uses.  Both are "Exits".

For example, it may be hard to leave a brain wallet where, if you are incapacitated, someone you want to find it will find it.
Sure, the protocol allows for coins to be spent automatically after a time, and one could program a dead-man switch to push inheritance out.  Its just something you get for free with material commodities.  Its exists outside a head and outside a computer.  For some purposes, that is a feature, for others it is a bug.

The two are almost opposite in function but united in purpose, and so are excellent compliments to each other.


there's only going to be one winner in the end.

If you have only one, you are fairly sure to lose in the end.  Resilience is all about the plan B, and the plan C, D, E, F

no, it just means you're confused.

No life-vests allowed on your speedboats, eh?  They'll just weigh it down.
2778  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BITGILD.com - European based precious metails / gold bullion dealer on: October 31, 2013, 04:08:08 AM
Their silver 1oz coins are pretty low prices compared to other sites. Placing an order soon.

You would be hard pressed to get better service and attention at any price, and these are currently the ONLY online retailer in the entire EU for the Coldhardca.sh Silver Bitcoin Specie  Smiley  This is the sort of attention that they give to our community.  The first mover advantage is theirs and we wish them every success.
2779  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: I entered the police station as a suspect. When I left the officer loved Bitcoin on: October 31, 2013, 03:57:54 AM
For instance, I'm going to tell you right now that there is a unspent transaction on the blockchain that can be spent with the private key 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 - I just sent you money, and you can't refuse it!

Even better, I just took that money (which was at 1BgGZ9tcN4rm9KBzDn7KprQz87SZ26SAMH) and moved it to 3MaB7QVq3k4pQx3BhsvEADgzQonLSBwMdj, which is a P2SH address that can be redeemed by anybody using the script OP_TRUE. So I just sent everybody in the universe money, and they can't refuse it! Smiley

The existence of Bitcoin may change the way people think about how money is owned (since money can be jointly owned in interesting ways with multisig or even more exotic scripts), and it might take a while for law/courts/society to adapt. Interesting to see it slowly happen bit by bit, in ways like this story tells.

In the case of politicians' requirements to not accept "dirty money", it may be that it is not considered theirs until it is put to use. or that it would be a lesser offense.

Perhaps in a similar way to that of the misdemeanor crime of "joy-riding" becomes "grand theft" when you switch the license plates or otherwise attempt to change the identity of the vehicle making it less identifiable as belonging to its rightful owner.
2780  Economy / Collectibles / Re: New Bitcoin Specie by the makers of New Liberty Dollar on: October 31, 2013, 02:04:43 AM
Congrats on the new sources for your products! I will send you a message about a possible connection in Asia (it's a long shot, but a possibility).

Thank you for this.  Given the geography, and the politics, I will likely need more than one in Asia-Pacific region.
Also looking for India distributors. 
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