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Interesting data point:
Over the last 3 months.
100% of the days after having the volume of Dec 7 MtGox (90K+) were the start of uptrends. (4 data points)
We'll see if this trend holds.
If you have bee buying yesterday and today, you probably have nothing to worry about for a while.
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David Woo, FX and Rates Strategist at Bank of America/Merill Lynch and one of the best minds on Wall Street likes Bitcoin. http://www.businessinsider.com/david-woo-on-bitcoin-2013-12"We believe Bitcoin can become a major means of payment for e-commerce and may emerge as a serious competitor to traditional money transfer providers. As a medium of exchange, Bitcoin has clear potential for growth, in our view." Woo's analysis represents a top-flight mind at a major financial institution assessing Bitcoin in a serious way, and coming to the conclusion that it could be the real deal. Woo identifies the three things that need to happen for Bitcoin to be worth what it currently is: "Our fair value analysis suggests that to justify the current Bitcoin valuation, it will need to (1) account for at least 10% of all global e-commerce B2C transactions, (2) become one of the top three players in the money transfer industry, and (3) acquire a store of value reputation close to silver." We're working on that, David! We and all those involved in this project have been backing bitcoin with silver. Its a good start. |
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So if Greenspan is wrong about everything else, that automatically disqualifies him as giving a valid opinion on BitCoin? What if he is right, have you considered that, or does that not fit in with your worldview?
Okay, lets say the father of the largest real-estate bubble in america is somehow *right* about bitcoin. Well, when would you expect this to manifest itself? After the first surge to a dollar? The second to 31? The third to 266? The fourth to 1,000+? Do you see a pattern here at all? When confidence is lost, the opportunity to recover is also lost. Bitcoin hasn't lost that confidence. For that to happen, we would freefall to near zero, and then stay at some mediocre value - say 1 dollar, and taper off to nothingness as everyone just decided to stop participating. The problem with his grand and sweeping pronouncement is he bases this on the "intrinsic value" theorem, which for old economic fossils, usually means Gold. You can't directly compare bitcoin and gold, although some try. I suppose there is a rudimentary basis for doing so, where the scarcity of gold ore could be held up to the relative scarcity of finding the correct "hash" for a block. But other than that, they are distant cousins to each other. In any case, I'd just take his predictions he made during his career and apply that probability ratio to what he's said about Bitcoin. If anything, its a contrary indicator. AG is almost certainly right about something. Although he made bald unsupported assertions, and all we have to go on for reasoning, is his authority. The authoritative summary being that he hasn't the imagination necessary for Bitcoin. I don't disagree with him on that. Bitcoin is in beta, and so it does require a modicum of imagination, which he hasn't yet found. Interesting times ahead, is the Fed's taper also a fuse? 1 The punch-line to this joke is that with the approval of BASIL III accord, at its implementation there will be a reduction in the "intrinsic value" items held as asset classes in all meaningful central banks on the planet. Its being traded out for the pseudo-collateralized debt instruments of other central banks. Add that to the defacto socialization of the debt of the federal reserve, a bank regulatory authority owned by banks (yet again passing the bag of debt rung up by the too-big-to-fail to the taxpayers). http://readersupportednews.org/pm-section/84-84/8076-the-bank-of-american-taxpayers-the-bankers-bank-of-choice1 "taper-fuse" Definitions from The Century Dictionary and Cyclopedia:
n. A long, flexible fuse, in the form of a ribbon, charged with a rapid-burning composition. |
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Not everybody. Still have 40% fiat @ exchanges.
It's allways good to have money to buy dips.
You're losing shitload if you have 40% of your stash in fiat while price go to the moon, then it doesn't much help to buy in dips. Losing? No! Probably you don't get it. It's not real profit till you sell. If everyone is going to sell @ 10k, there won't be 10k, rather 1$. Btw I have a lot more then 40% in fiat/gold/appartments. Bitcoin is just my high risk playmoney. It will never be lifechanging, because I have a better life then 99.99% on earth. I dont put my future in some genious pyramide scheme. Everbody can change his life without the money of others. Your belief that your fiat/gold/apartments/BTC holdings makes your life better than 99.99% of the people on earth is pretty indicative of your horizon and take on life, which makes me personally think your life quality is pretty shitty compared to most people with views on life less focused on holdings and money. Be kind, while you may be either right about about that judgement or not, I didn't read that connection (that he thinks his life is better because of his wealth). Just that he wasn't worried about getting more wealthy from using bitcoin. For all we know he could be practicing asset diversity and as a result of accurately assessing that mathematically he is one of the financially .01% has devoted his time and energy to being a philanthropist rather than to being one of the .001%. |
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it's called capital gains taxes, and it depends on the price that you bought the bitcoins at. if you bought at say $10, and it jumps to $1000, then you'd have to pay taxes on $990. the % depends on the itemized deductions, and how long you've held on bitcoins (in the US).
According to my accountant, Beetcoin is correct. You should consult an account for your own situation but technically if you did not hold it for a year it will be short term capitol gains, over a year is long term capitol gains. It does not matter if its Kittens or stocks, if you bought at one price and sold for a gain or loss it is a capitol gain or loss. I am aware of the argument that BTC is not something you can hold in your hand but I will play it safe and just pay the taxes on it. I moved enough USD tied to BTC this year I need to do something regarding taxes. I know BTC is fairly new to being reported as income or capitol gain but its better to pay it wrong and show the attempt than not pay it at all. I have a feeling after this year in the US we will have some kind of IRS guideline as how to handle the reporting and paying of taxes on BTC. Much depends on where you are standing on the planet and where your assets are located. |
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no suit will happen
I figured... I just wanted to rant cause I'm still pissed about it =p You could hire a lawyer, but that would cost more than your "pretty large position". If you find someone that suffered a much greater loss and offer to them to be a test case for them, and if you could be able and organized, they might help you make that happen. Its possible someone else doesn't personally feel inclined to be the professional litigant that such an effort would require. tl;dr no free bite at that lunch. |
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Is this thread an appropriate place to discuss an issue that isn't in regards to encryption so much as it is the cryptographicly secured integrity of the block chain and its forensically valuable properties?
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So - when does the fat lady sing...?
Come on graph experts - call it - I need some shut eye!
Perhaps a sell off ahead of the weekend? Sunday bottoms are common. Sleep now, watch later. |
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Holding on to my coins for now, but what makes me uneasy, is the feeling that I don't understand what's going on this time. I've seen DOS attacks, exchanges go down, bad news, unsustainable price jumps, etc.. but my (perhaps overly simplified) interpretation of the China news was that it's just bringing them in to line with what we've already been doing, providing ID to use the exchanges? Surely that's not such a big deal, yet here we are bouncing around 800 on stamp  One might wonder, how much do you think, a valid Chinese ID costs? Hire someone to use their ID. Not ID theft, ID purchase. Would the Chinese billionaires be able to buy those by the truckload? |
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The more I think about the concept of this device the more it seems to be intended for idiots. All theater, no actual security.
This is when people will stop answering you, but some of the smartest people in bitcoin endorse this and actually have helped to make it more even more secure. I guess those people are idiots.  And you think endorse equals use? I doubt those smart people would care to entrust private keys to a new device. Not to mention they are selling it for so much they all probably got a piece of the pie. But then it's intended for people who know nothing of security. Google "security theater" maybe it will help you realize why you wasted your money. I really doubt that people got a piece of pie, considering how expensive it is to develop hardware, plus they converted the bitcoins to fiat. So yeah. Also as for me not knowing anything about security, I have many sites that I have been contracted to do security on them. So yeah. The trezor just fits into my eco-system of bitcoin so I guess it doesn't work for you. Pre-orders aren't for everyone only the people that actually understand what a pre-order means. Looks real nice I would have no use and im not sure many others will considering the internet is everywhere and they can just use blockchain.info
Also I am pretty sure this was announced in September so I real do not see why this must be announced twice
But I still support this product because it looks nice!
This is why you probably need it! Blockchain is very unsecure wallet, but they are planning to add trezor support and that would make them very much the most secure web wallet known. What security? Securing PHP against SQL injection and include? Do you know about various buffer overflows and how to exploit them? Do you know about how are ROP chains used to defeat DEP and partial ASLR? We are talking about third party hardware here, one that has to accept various inputs through a USB. It opens such a vast attack surface you probably can't imagine it. So lets ask the developers, are they planning to do complete ASLR on their little device? If not no one should trust it at all. Although no one will probably bother exploiting it if it will have a small user base. I don't know much about how they are planning to do it, but based on just the reading here, I would guess that ASLR is somewhat obviated through the ARM Invariant-timing packets and overflow handling, and FIFO overflow protection. Careful implementation of stall processing can stall the processor until the FIFO buffer is empty. This is a pretty safe defense even against the stack smashing ROP chains, but might still be exploitable through a environmental corner attack, if you can find enough edges. It is possible that they have chosen an architecture that doesn't include FIFOFULL operations. Maybe they will clarify. Or maybe they will leave us guessing and let those that are going to try to break them predictably using this method to their own devices. In that case I guess we will have to buy a few devices to find out. |
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I dont quite understand why you quoted me or why you think im part of this, but congrats on your crescendo. Quoted for the pictorial awesomeness and general it-bears-repeatingness of your post. |
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or projecting the Bitcoin symbol into the sky with a big lightbeam.
oh god please make this happen  This would be amazing indeed! Unfortunately thats not possible, first you would need extremely low hanging clouds(preferably flat ), then the image would be blurry and most importantly only recognizable from 1 position. Projecting it on some skyscrapers would be much more effective, preferably from a construction(like a crane) on the building itself. But then again you have the problem of permits, which Germans are a huge fan off. You can always do it old school and hack a building to play around with the lights:  You have thrown megabashes before yes? Please tell me this isn't your first rodeo... First you do the fireworks, start small, build to a crescendo, timed with the suitable music. Build... build.... then finale! Everyone is overwhelmed by the display, It ends with a big bone-rattling finish, and silence... Into that sense of overwhelming awe and onto the layer of high smoke from all of this explosions, you project the B in silence, in all its glory, standing alone for all to see... The symbolism will rest in the subconscious off all who bear witness, that after the struggle and the currency wars, after the tumult and the strife, there will be peace...and bitcoin. |
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I thought the FinCen statement a while back pretty much indicated it was a currency. I could have misunderstood, though. One could certainly argue that money and currency aren't equal. Here's some food for thought, though, do precious metals dealers have to register as money transmitters for selling commodities for cash? I know there were some recent law changes for coins, and I think those laws revert next for year, but in general, is gold "money" in the eyes of FinCen, does money=currency in their eyes, or do we really not know? Moreover, does the IRS care what FinCen thinks? Let's assume it's currency for further discussion based on FinCen talking about it and saying spending it doesn't make you a money transmitter. When you buy something and reside in US states that charge sales tax, you are supposed to pay sales tax on that purchase at the end of the year if you didn't do so at the time of the transaction. US taxes (and state taxes in the US) must be paid in US dollars by law, and the sell price must be converted to US dollars (which is generally done at the time of purchase by your credit card company if you buy in some other currency). I'm not sure if/how that applies to barter, but assuming barter isn't taxed as sales tax, I'm guessing bitcoin would be considered currency to states that have sales tax unless the IRS didn't allow states to treat it differently than the federal government (and they had some reason to treat it differently than currency). Considering that some people are already paid in bitcoin, I'm thinking the IRS will want to treat it as currency to collect income tax. That having been said, if you trade currencies regularly on an exchange in order to try to make a profit, what do you have to do? I'm thinking that's capital gains/losses even though it is currencies. My understanding is those exchanges have to convert to US at midnight each for some tax reason, so holding overnight leads to some expenses, and this would mean currency trading isn't historically something that can be done "long term" (over a year in a position). On the other hand, if I go to Europe and withdraw some Euros from an ATM on a day that the Euro happens to have temporarily crashed, then come home and convert the Euro to USD for a gain vs what I withdrew (even after ATM and exchange fees), was that a capital gain even though it wasn't really an investment and I'm making an exchange for equal value? Does anyone actually claim capital losses when they travel and have to convert currency? Realistically, such exchanges are practically a guaranteed loss, and I don't know that it can be claimed (one would like to think the IRS can't have it both ways). Regarding all of that, I only tried once, and not really hard, but I didn't find much in IRS publishings about currency exchange in general. So if BitCoin is currency, I think the real question is, for currency exchange, does intent matter (investment vs exchange to spend / local currency) to tax law, and what tax law applies? If it is a commodity, then the procedure is out there and followed by anyone who trades securities, but yeah, it could put you on someone's radar. Anyway, does anyone have any input (answers/corrections/thoughts) regarding my currency exchange questions? Silver and gold is primarily regulated by the CFTC. Essentially if you are trading in physical, so long as it is under the threshold of a commodities futures contract (or one of the items not included in any futures contract such as Bitcoin Specie) it is not regulated as such. If it constitutes what would be a futures contract, you are bound to report it to IRS as a trade. Here is a decent primer on it: http://www.coinworld.com/articles/what-coins-are-reportablePoint being? When the Winklevoss ETF enters the scene, Bitcoin trades, even OTC may become reportable under the CFTC rules. |
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The motivation has obviously been the success of bitcoin.
Exactly. Satoshi wasn't doing it to get rich. Money is just one way of convincing people to do something that they weren't otherwise going to do. But there are things more convincing than money. He understood that very well. |
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HR leads, but then it also follows, until it leads.
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is silvers market cap only at 15 Billion USD?
Closer to $22B 1 tonne silver is about US$725K There are about 30K tonnes in reserves (and over 1M available to be put in reserves so real number is closer to $800B) Maybe he is just considering american eagles. And only considering one aspect of Bitcoin. |
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so, check this out
"...The Notice requires, the Bitcoin websites that act as the main trading platform, should follow the Telecommunications Act and the Regulation on Internet Information Service, and register according to law. ..."
Somebody just got a sweet deal *cough, owner of BTCChina, cough*
Must be nice to get an inside deal. *cough, money exchanges hands, cough*
What advantage does BTCCHina have for which you suggest they've had to pay? Chinese banks can't enter its business. |
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Dude stop reading what some bull manipulates the news to say as fact. It's bad news full stop. China's banning financial institutions from handling bitcoin transactions, if you see that as good news for Chinese exchanges or for bitcoin in China alone, your deluded.
Is your perspective now the following hours, days, weeks or months? "Bad news for Bitcoin" as a generalization does not exist, because nothing can stop Bitcoin. It is just a question of the way. Pls elaborate. Yes I agree, just getting caught up in the excitement. Like I said earlier I still think 1mill per coin is going to happen. But this is a temporary bad news. I think we will feel the effects of this for a few weeks, if not months. Not only because of what has happened in China but because it will effect the confidence of all our new investors, small or big. The media which has helped rally us to our latest ATH with such voracity will act as a two edged sword and now do the opposite touting the crash which will upset our adoption rate. I don't think we will see several months like the last time, but we will have to go into a bear market for a few months, forget this bad news, recuperate, get more good news, and advance on another ATH attack, how long that takes, I have no idea. This could be a possibility. Only in BitcoinTalk can "banning" something that has never been done, bad news. Where in the world are there banking institutions with bank accounts denominated in bitcoin? China? Looks like they were contemplating it, and the big boys said "not yet" loudly. Wake me up when they ban unicorns too. |
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Bitcoin is a distributed timestamping and script processing engine.
Currency and payment processing is just the first program that we've decided to run on it.
QFT |
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