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281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 09:57:58 AM
Margin account liquidated only hours ago is now around 2.5% health again.  If this doesn’t let up soon, it will set some kind of record for repeated executions without time for a last meal or... ok, I am wittier when I am not in this type of a situation.

MARGIN SUCKS!!!
[...]
If we really visit the $23k range, I could get liquidated again-again.  I ought to avoid repeating the same mistake.

Slightly over $23,200, to be precise.

Four letters is your mistake

HODL

Stop being greedy and playing the market. Only 10% wins that game (and if you believe the Internet everyone is making tons of money on it)

Just accumulate and put it away for 8 years
282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 09:54:31 AM
Just keeps grinding down. Where are these coins coming from.

Weak hands

Well, there's a shitload more of those people remaining than I thought.

Well being weak hands when seeing $1000 going to $100 is different from $1M going to $100k
283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 09:47:52 AM
When U.S stock market opens Bitcoin could crater to $20k ore even below that.

More dumping ahead when FED increasing rates again later this week.

Total doom!

Yes everyone sell now before BTC price goes negative  Tongue
284  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 08:57:50 AM
Just keeps grinding down. Where are these coins coming from.

Weak hands
285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 07:51:43 AM
There’s a lot to be pessimistic about right now in the Bitcoin market. First the UST disaster, now it seems Celsius is the next domino to fall. How far will that spread? There are rumors that Tether was invested into Celsius. Were other interest providing exchanges also exposed? Will the market be heavily dumped until these companies can afford to buy back their customer deposits? Will that trigger Saylor to sell? What about when the ETH 2.0 coins are unlocked and the mtgox coins hit the market? I’ve been saying $10K is in the near future, but seeing it play out is going to be painful.

With all new technologies you always get the good and bad.
Networks failing is a good thing because it will make people look at the fundamentals.
It will cull the bad from the good. Stop the supply of new shitcoins.
Exchanges will become responsible for the coins they choose to list. They have to protect their customers and their own image...

Eth2.0 will cut supply by 90% which will add to scarcity and increase price.

MtGox coins will get absorbed by the big whales like Microstrategy if they push down the price.

Bitcoin has always been hard love. But those who just ride through the storm will find their rainbow with pot of gold.
286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Peter Schiff Advices Don't Buy the Dip on: June 13, 2022, 07:08:48 AM
The dude has been on Tucker Carlson and FoxNews.... credibility -----> Window
287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 07:03:22 AM
Hey, at that—newbies who are scared that we just dipped below $25k (now bouncing towards $26k), and that there is chit-chat about $22k, should remember that some people sold Bitcoin for under $220 in early 2015.  No, I did not omit any zeroes, or turn any letter-k to a zero.  I wonder if the people who sold BTC at $220 feel bad now. Smiley

selling at $220 was not frown at for most of 2015.
It depends what did you sell it for.


At that point most sales would of been because BTC is dead.

srsly? hardly, imho.


I remember this thread being a desert. A lot of people had given up.

maybe, but mining threads were as active as ever, maybe much more than today 'cause many people were mining with S7.
I think it was the last tolerable miner as far as noise at home is concerned (S9 and later had to go to a basement, a different structure or to a separate facility).

Majority or users (even back then) were not miners though.

Higher lows look like a promising reversal  Smiley

100k next week

1M next month  Grin
288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2022, 06:53:40 AM
Higher lows look like a promising reversal  Smiley
289  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will bitcoin reach its all-time high? on: June 12, 2022, 08:37:53 PM
It should be in 2024 but with the halving in 2024 this ATH might come sooner
290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Terra cofounder Do Kwon is the one who is pumping Bitcoin on: June 12, 2022, 08:02:07 PM
Now Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon is quite actively rejecting accusations that he cashed out $2.7 billion from LUNA and UST, according to rumors, he has been doing this for 3 years for $80 million monthly, according to @FatManTerra.
Do Kwon himself calls these accusations nothing more than rumors and urges to be restrained until the situation is fully clarified, I really would like the law enforcement agencies of South Korea to work hard on the investigation.

Or ask North Korea to help extract the info  Wink

Anyway he's just as guilty as Bernie Madoff for projecting false profits and blowing up.
291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2022, 07:51:13 PM

Brothers in arms  Wink
292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2022, 06:20:36 PM
So funny to see YouTube go from we're doomed and crashing etc. To we're going to get rich ..... Dump incoming!!! in like 1 hour  Grin
293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2022, 04:53:51 PM
Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

Don't wait too long we are very close to the bottom and when it goes up it be it will be explosive.
294  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC price suddenly dropped from $ 31K on: June 12, 2022, 10:18:51 AM
But I am not sudden in that drop mate , actually i am satisfied on what bitcoin performed recently , because I've waited for long from the end of November last year till now for the price of bitcoin to lowered down .
and now i am satisfied because i have purchased today at 27k ., and maybe will hold my coins till 2025 or at least late 2024?


Same here I'm probably taking some profits at $200k for living and then waiting for $1M and higher even if that is 2030 or later...
295  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC price suddenly dropped from $ 31K on: June 12, 2022, 10:16:19 AM
And what we have now is another lowering mate , and there are some speculations that price of  bitcoin will drop even to 20k , so if this is real then your post here is more higher than what is coming .
and suddenly if this happens , I am a total failure lol because i am planning to take out at least 1/3 of my funds when the price is still 38k lol.

If you are going to sell when it hits 38k you can consider yourself a failure because where we're going is at least 100k  Cool
296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitstamp BTC/USD Polar Charts | 28/11/2014 ~ 07/06/2022 (2749 days) on: June 12, 2022, 10:09:06 AM
Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations.

Trying to catch up and not really up to posting but this is a great chart visualization you setup so had to comment.

What is the absolute minimum time frame for length to be in profit.

Obviously its in between the 2 and 4 year but i'd like to know the exact timeframe as it would be nice to see if it holds as we progress.

Thanks Hueristic, and to everyone who found my visualization helpful (links to post and video, for those who missed it). I'm also VERY busy IRL right now, so I've had to switch to "lurker" mode. I'm trying to keep up with WO, and very quickly skimming through the posts.

On to your question, which is very interesting, and is one that also came into my mind while writing the visualization code and observing the results. You're right, the profit threshold is between 2 and 4 years. This is obvious, by comparing the plots for Case 4 and Case 5. Answering the question programmatically is not very trivial, so I found the answer graphically, by observing adjacent plots (one day apart), around the time point the spiral untangles. It turns out that the profit threshold is at 1096 days. This is around 156 weeks, or exactly 3 years. The funny (and interesting) thing is that this threshold is EXACTLY 3 years to the day (1096 / 365.25 = 3.0007)! The price point at that time is just under $20k (around $19,700).


Edit: After posting this, I did some verification of the price data, just to make sure I haven't mada a mistake. Everything checked out, but what I also realized was that the time the spiral untangles is on 17 December 2017—the exact time point of the 2017 ATH (for the older cycle). Hence the price of just under $20k! For the newer (outer) cycle, the time point is 1096 days (3 years) later, which is on 17 December 2020.


Here's the relevant polar plot (indicating the point the spiral untangles):



When I have some free, time I'll try to think of other ways to visualize price data, so that we can get a better understanding of price dynamics. For the time being, I'm in "HoDL-&-wait" mode. The recent price drop (and even today's drop to nearly $27k) does not worry me. I'm convinced that it's just a matter of time for the price to reach 6 digits and beyond. Just need to wait for a little while longer... We're all used to that. This is fine.

Here's an idea:
Try representing 360deg as time between halvings. For the next halving use the projected date.  This should sync and scale the graphs and might give some insight...
297  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Epic Cash on: June 12, 2022, 07:20:10 AM
Like I said, I am sitting in profit, bc of reasons not a chart.


"bc of reasons not a chart" Name few. Why this coin is better than 20k that already exist.

Can you say that you hit a 50x+? If so, good.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5208144.msg53299809#msg53299809

In this topic I was explaining why BNB is a great investemnt. It was 15$ back than. Its ~300$ now (x20) 660$ at ATH (x44). Its under x50 but if you add all lauchpads, lauchpools that you were able to take part in during 2 years period and dumped right after listing to BNB it would make it like x80.

In my thread you can see how I explain if something is good investment or not. Comparing to other coins, comparing to other investments (stocks), calculating p/e, calculating expected roi. Not "its good investment because its cheaper than it was during pump and dump event" like you did in this thread.

Want to only make 6x then just invest in the regular coins like BTC and ETH. These are about to go 6x because we are at our close to the bottom.

6x is back to ATH. I would not expect to see that soon.

We'll see... but from a risk reward perspective it's risk free at the expense of time.
But most people go to altcoins because they want to get rich quick which only pans out for a very select few...
298  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC price suddenly dropped from $ 31K on: June 12, 2022, 07:16:49 AM
During the first week of June, we saw a slight rebound in bitcoin as well as the market. This morning, bitcoin unexpectedly dropped from 31k$ to 29k$.

and today the price simply dropped to $28200 honestly we are living in dark days, with this fall it is weakening the support that is at $28000 and if it breaks this support then we will see a big bloodbath that will take us to $26000 to $24000 in a short time and the trend could take us to $20,000, I'm afraid that we will see $20,000 again because that would make me have little daily volume to trade but at the same time it would be a good opportunity to buy bitcoin

As of now, I have yet to find an answer regarding bitcoin's sudden drop in price.

just join this:

1 - Russian-Ukraine war (sanctions)

2 - Luna (the great disaster)

so there are good reasons to make the price drop a lot

And both have nothing to do with Bitcoin imo...

Yes that's right what you said.
The current decline in the price of bitcoin has nothing to do with either side of the news.
If we talk about the Ukraine war, it's long gone and they have embraced bitcoin.
The war is not over and will probably go on for a long time. By the way, this reason is now very convenient to use, blaming all the economic troubles on it. Even if Ukraine has adopted bitcoin, it does not say anything at all, because now there is only negative news from everywhere, so no one talks about anything except the war.

Exactly. They aren't going to say they left the money printer on too long...
299  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: PoS vs PoW later this year on: June 12, 2022, 04:26:16 AM
After what happened with Luna, everyone should understand that Proof of Stake is a dangerous model.
If there is a loophole in the code or a scenario that makes everything collapse dramatically, this will cause the price to collapse severely in a short time.
Therefore, I see that it will be postponed for as long as possible to make mining profitable, and then it will be switched to proving the property after carefully reviewing the codes.
If one of these steps is rushed, it is the end of most alternative currencies and a correction of more than 70% for the price of Bitcoin.

What happened with Luna is what happens if you are backed by nothing and have a less than 1-to-1 collateral.
Aka floating coins.

Also giving off way too high profits basically making it a Bernie Madoff style investment. They got tested and failed.

So please don't say PoS is the problem. It was the shit idea and shit fundamentals behind it that failed.
This is the difference between altcoins and shitcoins
300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2022, 04:17:12 AM
C’mon, Bitcoin, please get back up.

Man, i don't want it to happen right away. My SL order was just filled, im lossing, damn.
Let it go first to the next support area, im waiting there. Tongue

Lol been there. Just buy and HODL my friend. Accept any minor loss you suffered on that SL. Don't wait...
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