Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

"The Bitfinex Saudis have been adding to their longs and have informed me they are now targeting 420k."



https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1535720048265945089

lol.


I gotta say..... I am looking forward to a large swath of those longs to get liquidated.  It will be a good thing IMO.

I have the feeling most of them won't get liquidated...   

[1714004900]

1714004900

[1714004900]

1714004900

[empowering]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

"The Bitfinex Saudis have been adding to their longs and have informed me they are now targeting 420k."



https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1535720048265945089

lol.


I gotta say..... I am looking forward to a large swath of those longs to get liquidated.  It will be a good thing IMO.

I have the feeling most of them won't get liquidated...  

what makes you think that ? (out of interest)

Perhaps, we shall have to see, guess it depends on their leverage levels and collateral levels, and their entry points. We shall see. I am thinking that the longs will increase more.... and eventually a culling is inevitable, and healthy.


These things usually have a tipping point, followed by cascading liquidations.

[dragonvslinux]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

Wouldn't expect anything less right now. Bitfinex longs (yellow line) are inversely correlated to the overall leverage market. While the market is short, Bitfinex is long.



Traders on that platform take profits when price is rising, and otherwise accumulate when price is dropping (or sideways). Using very low leverage to avoid liquidation I imagine.

They will start taking profits when price is rising, as long as they can avoid a covid-like capitulation crash.

[empowering]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

Wouldn't expect anything less right now. Bitfinex longs (yellow line) are inversely correlated to the overall leverage market. While the market is short, Bitfinex is long.



Traders on that platform take profits when price is rising, and otherwise accumulate when price is dropping (or sideways). Using very low leverage to avoid liquidation I imagine.

They will start taking profits when price is rising, as long as they can avoid a covid-like capitulation crash.

Of course, I hear you... however, I just feel like the fact that the BTC longs, on finex, are so far above ATH , at these price levels, to be too far out of kilter, and many of them are long, as seen on spikes on chart from 42K...... risky biscuits.  If we would have seen the massive spikes in LONGS from the past week or two, I would assume they were in better shape.

Never know, could all be fine... I just always expect the market to go for max pain...... and for some market participants, to want to impose max pain.



 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitebits]

Less than 100k blocks left to the next halving and -60% from the ATH. This is the time to add to the stash again.

[dragonvslinux]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

Wouldn't expect anything less right now. Bitfinex longs (yellow line) are inversely correlated to the overall leverage market. While the market is short, Bitfinex is long.



Traders on that platform take profits when price is rising, and otherwise accumulate when price is dropping (or sideways). Using very low leverage to avoid liquidation I imagine.

They will start taking profits when price is rising, as long as they can avoid a covid-like capitulation crash.

Of course, I hear you... however, I just feel like the fact that the BTC longs, on finex, are so far above ATH , at these price levels, to be too far out of kilter, and many of them are long, as seen on spikes on chart from 42K...... risky biscuits.  If we would have seen the massive spikes in LONGS from the past week or two, I would assume they were in better shape.

To put it simply, I don't trust the Bitfinex bull whales as there are many OGs with too many Bitcoins. While they are stacking up longs on Bitfinex, they have the ability to head to Binance and FTX in order to liquidate the shorts. As to me it seems very suspicious how they've been consistently making profit in the past year or so, without a considerable dose of market manipulation if I had to guess (both long and short).

Never know, could all be fine... I just always expect the market to go for max pain...... and for some market participants, to want to impose max pain.

For sure, I agree with the max pain theory, but currently max pain would be a short squeeze as the market is predominantly short. Not a long squeeze of Bitfinex that's only ranked no.7 based on leverage volume (becoming irrelevant). Max pain would also be trapping many sellers below $30K, that could end up being very painful for many in the long-term, similar to trapping many buyers above $60K.

To me it also seems clear that the Bifinex whales intend to stack longs all the way down from $40K to $20K. For all we know it could be with 0 leverage that is then applied later (if this is possible)...

[somac.]

Of course, I hear you... however, I just feel like the fact that the BTC longs, on finex, are so far above ATH , at these price levels, to be too far out of kilter, and many of them are long, as seen on spikes on chart from 42K...... risky biscuits.  If we would have seen the massive spikes in LONGS from the past week or two, I would assume they were in better shape.

Never know, could all be fine... I just always expect the market to go for max pain...... and for some market participants, to want to impose max pain.

Well, things do have that downity look at the moment. Which means more stacking.

[empowering]

For sure, I agree with the max pain theory, but currently max pain would be a short squeeze as the market is predominantly short. Not a long squeeze of Bitfinex that's only ranked no.7 based on leverage volume (becoming irrelevant). Max pain would also be trapping many sellers below $30K, that could end up being very painful for many in the long-term, similar to trapping many buyers above $60K.

To me it also seems clear that the Bifinex whales intend to stack longs all the way down from $40K to $20K. For all we know it could be with 0 leverage that is then applied later (if this is possible)...

Yeah for sure fair enough point...  I expect max pain to be inflicted on both.... guess we will see in which order.  Feel like we have another leg down and then things start to get interesting ... but we shall see.

 




 

[dragonvslinux]

For sure, I agree with the max pain theory, but currently max pain would be a short squeeze as the market is predominantly short. Not a long squeeze of Bitfinex that's only ranked no.7 based on leverage volume (becoming irrelevant). Max pain would also be trapping many sellers below $30K, that could end up being very painful for many in the long-term, similar to trapping many buyers above $60K.

To me it also seems clear that the Bifinex whales intend to stack longs all the way down from $40K to $20K. For all we know it could be with 0 leverage that is then applied later (if this is possible)...

Yeah for sure fair enough point...  I expect max pain to be inflicted on both.... guess we will see in which order.  Feel like we have another leg down and then things start to get interesting ... but we shall see.

Agree with you here as still not doubting another leg down, re-testing $25K level, even the 200 Week MA. This would line up nicely with Weekly RSI @ 30 for a solid bounce.

I just doubt a move to $25K, even $20K, would have much effect on the Bitfinex longs right now. Probably they will just keep rising until price rebounds.



I'd prefer price to test the $20K-$25K asap, and get to critical oversold levels, rather than re-testing after a dead cat bounce. That would open the door for further downside if the RSI recovers.

[becoin]

Who sold at the bottom?

[empowering]

Who sold at the bottom?

Lets see, I am not so sure sure it is there yet.....

Would be cool if it is... lets see if it confirms as a bottom.

[Gachapin]

Meanwhile over at Finex





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

"The Bitfinex Saudis have been adding to their longs and have informed me they are now targeting 420k."



https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1535720048265945089

lol.


I gotta say..... I am looking forward to a large swath of those longs to get liquidated.  It will be a good thing IMO.

I have the feeling most of them won't get liquidated...  

what makes you think that ? (out of interest)

Perhaps, we shall have to see, guess it depends on their leverage levels and collateral levels, and their entry points. We shall see. I am thinking that the longs will increase more.... and eventually a culling is inevitable, and healthy.


These things usually have a tipping point, followed by cascading liquidations.

Just a feeling..  Finex is the (long) exception while the majority is short. ...And also the positive track record
(dragonvslinux described it very eloquently)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

Who sold at the bottom?

My buy order triggered at $26.9 does that count? I'm not sure I understand this word you use... sold??? Wassat?
With my orders triggering at $27.9 and $26.9 I have now brought my cost average down to $30.5 so I just keep telling myself to be happy about down. Very odd kind of "happy" it is...

[BIT-MASTER]

Hold Btc tightly, otherwise we will be in such a situation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raja_MBZ]

Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

[Wilhelm]

Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

Don't wait too long we are very close to the bottom and when it goes up it be it will be explosive.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation