glade length getting back on track
Got a tentative timeframe or target level? |
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Just checking in. Is it safe?
Mayor! Good to see your head out of the sand. Jimbo also got in just a minute to say hello. Regards to Rosewater. Need a shovel before you go or is that hole on the beach still good? |
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That's actually what I hope will happen! Not necessarily my prediction - I'm not able to do that, and the mammoths are nowhere to be seen (or heard). |
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I let others do the thinking.
I allways have a peek at the funding book at Finex. It represents the sentiment of lots of people (hopefully professionals), actually putting their money on the line, voting with their feet.
And what does that book tell you right now? |
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Short squeeze.
Please come back next weekend.
Yep. Sheer luck. I closed my long with serious profit. Now back to shorting, ready to let go still in the green if it really moons, but actually preparing to get rich (well, almost) in a < 6k scenario. Too early I think. Wait for next weekend. This G20 news could very well drive a relief rally. Yes, reasonable point, HairyMaclairy, thanks for the tip. I was a little uncertain myself, but my entry point is high enough to grant a little ginger boldness. If the week goes sideways-down as the past one, I can try and close it on profit a little at a time, without worries. Now I can set a tight stop loss and basically forget it. Back to life. Pheew... I wasn't born to be a trader, for sure.  |
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(img snipped for legibility)
See how similar does it look? It is all over GoX again. Bloodbath to $2k incoming. They won't let it shoot up again unless dumb people do panic sells below $5k.
I checked that page, but I don't get the point. It seems to have been written in 2017 and updated. *Btw whoever made this TA is a fucking genius and a legend.
The statements and predictions are generic, and there are whole orders of magnitude between alternatives. Are you being serious or sarcastic? I don't know what you're looking at, but it looks to me like he absolutely fucking nailed it: (relevant "comment by img" snipped for legibility) Allright, that's too many knowledgeable voices defending this analysis, including fabiorem and possibly others not quoted here. I guess I must be wrong and just failed to see value in that post. Maybe I should read it again, with more attention. |
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Short squeeze.
Please come back next weekend.
Yep. Sheer luck. I closed my long with serious profit. Now back to shorting, ready to let go still in the green if it really moons, but actually preparing to get rich (well, almost) in a < 6k scenario. |
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Speaking of capitulation, I'm CONSIDERING starting to contemplate selling a batch - if I can - between $7.5-$8k before end of March just to get the tax monkey off my back. Sent an email to my accountant asking what the penalty is on $xM deferred from Q1 to Q2.
Seriously.
Sheeeit.
No proud to admit this.
Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.
EVERYONE.
I'm thinking the same. We can all hope/say it will moon in the future but short to mid term trading is as unpredictable as anything. I don't see the point of drawing a line between tops and bottoms AT A CERTAIN POINT and then extrapolating onwards. Or a curve, for that matter. Even without shifting points, too many curves can fit a fixed set. An uncountable infinity, actually. I guess it's just a tool to help figure out the short term. |
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Well...I will likely DIE with my BTC hoard intact...but if BTC hits $6k, I am annoucing here now I will panic sell like an 8 year old child...all my
non-hoard btc/ltc and probably a good chunk of my LISK ICO coins.....
What? A seasoned old timer, early adopter, pioneer miner like you? NO WAY!Try to do that, and we will ask Bob to show you how wrong you were. I hear he's got lots of time on his hands right now... |
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Last summer majormax said there would be no new ATH for another few years. Bitcoin hit a $20k ATH half a year later. (relevant quote snipped)
Today he's making the same prediction of a few years of bear market without another ATH. His trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit. (more doom and gloom stuff)
Great of you to out bunk predictions! To use the words of our resident gay star, Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.
which may well be the case. Predicting the future is an art for artists, visionaries, madmen. Over half of which are proved wrong anyway. However, this doesn't detract from that specific observation: P/ T/ V/. I think it really makes a lot of sense, and it's a valuable tool to analyze any situation - not just the current one - and not necessarily to obtain accurate long term predictions. A few weeks would be more than enough in most crypto circumstances. |
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Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom!  "? Well, yes : and reasons : Price/ Time/ Volume/ Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive. This is advanced trading logic. By example in this case: IF volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough. IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows. IF price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low). So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much. Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V . Aha! Great insight! In other words, what counts is mainly the sum of volume * price... right? I'd never seen it from this angle, but it makes a lot of sense. One thing I like about this place is that there's always something to take away. At least for me. |
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Awww Torque thanks! I was feeling lonely  Major investors don't pay market price... for anything. In any market, they run it up, control the float, then crash it down. They continuously short and dump and short and dump, until they have shaken the tree so much and for so long, that all the Average Joes completely lose hope of any rally any time soon. Many will lose interest and die of boredom. All weak hands will finally be out.
And then once a bottom seemingly has been reached, they will massively dump again in a final capitulation. Scaring out any last weak hands.
Judging by the ongoing level of volatility, I don't think the final capitulation has happened yet. I still see newbs on Youtube talking about how they are "not fazed at all" by this downturn and still "gobbling up cheap coins."
"The market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
My advice for any long investor: Just buy bitcoin on a periodic schedule and forget about it for a few years.
Earlier, someone said something to the effect "The dump to 2k could be avoided if more dumb weak hands sell at 5k" - but I couldn't find the post and quote/credit the author. However, those words resonated with me - and it also fits your movie nicely. Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom! "? |
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And so 2018 marks a pivot point. Amateur speculators are spooked beyond belief and exiting the market in droves. But I think institutions are just starting to lick their chops and down-right salivate over the opportunity being handed to them. A global commodity that can and will be fiat-regulated, with a deflationary supply that cannot be artificially modified, an immutable public ledger, and unbreakable security if done right, barring any quantum leaps. We all know the technological benefits of Bitcoin are a dream come true for institutions, much more so than for the average Joe Public. Amateur speculators have been dreaming for this moment, the day when institutions take their little pet project seriously.
So what I don't understand is why everyone is suddenly running away, quitting the race, and basically just handing over the reins to the big boys for what is gearing up to be only 15% of December's price?
Because they are smashing the price down. I see some purpose to this action. However, if even Torque won't support me, I might be badly off. Because of one Mt Gox? Because of fear of regulation? Because of a crackdown on scammers? Because of fucking Google advertisements?
Yes, the usual FUD. Normally, it's moderately successful, but with the smell of bears on the horizon, it can become extremely effective. What gives, people? Isn't this what we were all waiting for?
I'm seeing a lot of talk of a protracted crypto winter like we saw in 2014. Do we honestly think the big boys are going to wait that long?
I share this view with you. They're probably drooling already, as you said. So why the protracted dump? This doesn't feel like mamas&papas selling off or old schoolers giving up. There must be something more to it. That's why I was asking for discussion: to help myself build a mental movie of what's cooking - and of the possible future developments. Not looking for numbers (maybe just ballpark times). A qualitative discussion would be ok at this point. |
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I checked that page, but I don't get the point. It seems to have been written in 2017 and updated. *Btw whoever made this TA is a fucking genius and a legend.
The statements and predictions are generic, and there are whole orders of magnitude between alternatives. Are you being serious or sarcastic? |
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I have made money from the last bull run and withdrawn it into my bank to not care about this drop. One thing I am certain, I will buy back when the market is favorable. I have small orders already filled but big ones waiting at the very bottom. Dont be scared. Bitcoin from the very start is like this. We've seen worse. It will recover.
I closed off my short on the last terrific shake down to 7.3k. Too much profit to ignore. Then I thought - before starting to nurse it again, why not go long? So I have a long position now, from the past low. It's in profit right now, but I would like to wait a bit more before closing and reversing it. So, I think this is the problem with margin trading. You begin cautiously - it's a hedge, you know - and before you know it, you turn into a gambler. A winning gambler for the time being, but that's the point: the change in attitude. Using margin trading properly and sticking to the plan - ot at least to the mindset - requires lots of discipline. My hunch about quick-reversing and longing is still paying out, but if I manage to close this in profit, I'm going back to my safety short. Then let it go down to 2k. I won't care. |
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What do you think is going on?  Other than miners dumping to pay their bills, and the whales shorting? And Average Joe not jumping in to buy because he scared? Not much else. I'm disappointed that you, of all the distinguished gentlemen in this fine room, didn't come up with some fascinating, food-for-thought explanation. |
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What do you think is going on? |
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Just me? Or this starting to hurt a little?
A little, you say??  |
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She keeps going down. Hard dump this weekend. Wish my short was bigger.
Long to 7900 Fight the good fight! I am using this small margin short as a hedge against an ugly crash. I'm already long with all my stash. No leveraged margin. Actual btc. Long to the moon. Is it mathematically viable? If the price goes down you make money, yes, but if it goes up do you make more than you lose on the short, only to make a new short higher up and repeat? As you suspect, it's necessary to prop it up as bitcoin rises, otherwise what you gain on a dip, you lose on a climb. That's what I call babysitting or nursing. One good way to go about it is the 2J-ladder, which in a nutshell means to sell on the way up (make your short larger) and buy on the way down (make it smaller, profiting a bit). The alternative is to just set up a largish insurance as a one-off expense and forget about it until it's worth redeeming. This is much easier on the nerves and doesn't require that much labor. However, there are issues with this brutal approach: you need to close it (on a loss) as soon as bitcoin rises too much, and reopen it higher (so a bit of monitoring and labor is required after all); it doesn't pay off with small profits when decreasing the size; finally, it should be done near a maximum to start with. If we were that good at spotting maxima, life would be easier, wouldn't it? But then, the very point of such a hedge would be moot. Wouldn't it be easier to just sell a small percentage of your stash, buy lower if it drops and eat the loss if it goes up? For several reasons, I like this solution less. There's much more friction involved in selling/buying real btc. Furthermore, I don't like holding more fiat than I need for ordinary expenses. But above all, this would create a series of taxable events that I want to avoid. |
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