Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Majormax]

This is how ... Rough figures only.  All fits together if you consider my other prognosis : Not all alts are doomed (just most of them , numerically). Some will be in for very big rises : their market cap share will rise relative to BTC.


Very roughly :  BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.

How much time do you think we will be at 2k, considering the fundamentals and the increasing adoption by big investors?

Well, thats a tricky one, but if past history is anything to go by, the low print could be instantaneous, ie less than a day. (or it might be a double bottom)

[Majormax]

Very roughly :  BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.

If that ever happens, I'll do what McAffee has promised for 2020 1 million's prediction.

Ever and Never are bold or foolish words.

[Cassius]

Here is an article with a nicly overlayed chart but at 3x speed.

http://telegra.ph/Inferno-market-outlook-The-Double-Bubble-Analysis-03-16

Credit to who ever posted this in the thread earlier.

Cheers
It's also worth comparing against April 2013's aftermath. That one bottomed out in 3 months.
I won't call this one other than to say given the correlation so far, I struggle to see more than another 2 months downward, maximum. That's if we haven't already seen the bottom at $6k, 6 weeks ago.

[btcbeliever]

Bloodbath to $2k incoming.

I wish it would happen that quickly, but unfortunately it will take some time.

Regarding drop to $2k no one here knows anything for sure, really.  It can turn on a dime and shoot up at anytime.  No one can deny that is a definite possibility.

Just give it a few years, and if another bull market ever comes along in bitcoin like 2013 and 2017, then sell more aggressively so you have funds to buy it back instead of feeling so depressed with the price drops.

[xhomerx10]

Very roughly :  BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.

If that ever happens, I'll do what McAffee has promised for 2020 1 million's prediction.

I hope you realize that John plans to eat this -

[fabiorem]

I smell capitulation in the air.

I guess that we can agree that 2k will be the absolute bottom.

However, it is still not safe to short it, as there is this G20 summit which can end with some Giancarlo equivalent doing a nice speech for bitcoin, which will bring a new bullish signal, and this time it can come from the banksters themselves. Both CBOE and CME are going long.

This trend can reverse at any minute. So, if it is to buy, better to do it with spare money, than from shorting your current position.

[d_eddie]

And so 2018 marks a pivot point. Amateur speculators are spooked beyond belief and exiting the market in droves. But I think institutions are just starting to lick their chops and down-right salivate over the opportunity being handed to them. A global commodity that can and will be fiat-regulated, with a deflationary supply that cannot be artificially modified, an immutable public ledger, and unbreakable security if done right, barring any quantum leaps. We all know the technological benefits of Bitcoin are a dream come true for institutions, much more so than for the average Joe Public. Amateur speculators have been dreaming for this moment, the day when institutions take their little pet project seriously.

So what I don't understand is why everyone is suddenly running away, quitting the race, and basically just handing over the reins to the big boys for what is gearing up to be only 15% of December's price?

Because they are smashing the price down. I see some purpose to this action. However, if even Torque won't support me, I might be badly off.

Because of one Mt Gox? Because of fear of regulation? Because of a crackdown on scammers? Because of fucking Google advertisements?

Yes, the usual FUD. Normally, it's moderately successful, but with the smell of bears on the horizon, it can become extremely effective.

What gives, people? Isn't this what we were all waiting for?

I'm seeing a lot of talk of a protracted crypto winter like we saw in 2014. Do we honestly think the big boys are going to wait that long?

I share this view with you. They're probably drooling already, as you said. So why the protracted dump? This doesn't feel like mamas&papas selling off or old schoolers giving up. There must be something more to it.

That's why I was asking for discussion: to help myself build a mental movie of what's cooking - and of the possible future developments.  Not looking for numbers (maybe just ballpark times). A qualitative discussion would be ok at this point.

[infofront]

G20 tomorrow and tuesday. I wonder how much or how little it will affect the price?

"A media representative for next week's summit, to be hosted by Argentina, which currently holds the G20 presidency, said that the first meeting will take place Monday. The talks will feature Argentina Treasury Minister Nicolás Dujovne and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Secretary-General José Angel Gurría, among other stakeholders.

A second discussion will happen on Tuesday, the rep told CoinDesk.

The agenda and talking points for the two discussions have not been released. However, a public document indicates that the discussions will revolve around the implications of cryptocurrencies and the potential applications of its underlying technology.

"The issue is an important item on the meeting agenda; delegates will consider a common response that would mitigate the risks without discouraging innovation," it argues.

[Torque]

And so 2018 marks a pivot point. Amateur speculators are spooked beyond belief and exiting the market in droves. But I think institutions are just starting to lick their chops and down-right salivate over the opportunity being handed to them. A global commodity that can and will be fiat-regulated, with a deflationary supply that cannot be artificially modified, an immutable public ledger, and unbreakable security if done right, barring any quantum leaps. We all know the technological benefits of Bitcoin are a dream come true for institutions, much more so than for the average Joe Public. Amateur speculators have been dreaming for this moment, the day when institutions take their little pet project seriously.

So what I don't understand is why everyone is suddenly running away, quitting the race, and basically just handing over the reins to the big boys for what is gearing up to be only 15% of December's price?

Because they are smashing the price down. I see some purpose to this action. However, if even Torque won't support me, I might be badly off.

I'm with you man.  I've been in this market long enough to see the truth of it.

Major investors don't pay market price... for anything.  In any market, they run it up, control the float, then crash it down. They continuously short and dump and short and dump, until they have shaken the tree so much and for so long, that all the Average Joes completely lose hope of any rally any time soon.  Many will lose interest and die of boredom. All weak hands will finally be out.

And then once a bottom seemingly has been reached, they will massively dump again in a final capitulation. Scaring out any last weak hands.

Judging by the ongoing level of volatility, I don't think the final capitulation has happened yet. I still see newbs on Youtube talking about how they are "not fazed at all" by this downturn and still "gobbling up cheap coins."

"The market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

My advice for any long investor: Just buy bitcoin on a periodic schedule and forget about it for a few years.

[d_eddie]

Awww Torque thanks! I was feeling lonely 

Major investors don't pay market price... for anything.  In any market, they run it up, control the float, then crash it down. They continuously short and dump and short and dump, until they have shaken the tree so much and for so long, that all the Average Joes completely lose hope of any rally any time soon.  Many will lose interest and die of boredom. All weak hands will finally be out.

And then once a bottom seemingly has been reached, they will massively dump again in a final capitulation. Scaring out any last weak hands.

Judging by the ongoing level of volatility, I don't think the final capitulation has happened yet. I still see newbs on Youtube talking about how they are "not fazed at all" by this downturn and still "gobbling up cheap coins."

"The market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

My advice for any long investor: Just buy bitcoin on a periodic schedule and forget about it for a few years.

Earlier, someone said something to the effect "The dump to 2k could be avoided if more dumb weak hands sell at 5k" - but I couldn't find the post and quote/credit the author.

However, those words resonated with me - and it also fits your movie nicely.

Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom! "?

[Majormax]

Earlier, someone said something to the effect "The dump to 2k could be avoided if more dumb weak hands sell at 5k" - but I couldn't find the post and quote/credit the author.

However, those words resonated with me - and it also fits your movie nicely.

Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom! "?

Well, yes : and reasons : 

Price/      Time/    Volume/

Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive.  This is advanced trading logic.

By example in this case:

IF  volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough.

IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows.

IF  price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low).


So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much.  Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V .

[xhomerx10]

Speaking of capitulation, I'm CONSIDERING starting to contemplate selling a batch - if I can - between $7.5-$8k before end of March just to get the tax monkey off my back. Sent an email to my accountant asking what the penalty is on $xM deferred from Q1 to Q2.

Seriously.

Sheeeit.

No proud to admit this.

Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.
EVERYONE.

 guilty and still hodling

[d_eddie]

Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom! "?

Well, yes : and reasons : 

Price/      Time/    Volume/

Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive.  This is advanced trading logic.

By example in this case:

IF  volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough.

IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows.

IF  price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low).

So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much.  Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V .

Aha! Great insight! In other words, what counts is mainly the sum of volume * price... right?
I'd never seen it from this angle, but it makes a lot of sense.

One thing I like about this place is that there's always something to take away. At least for me.

[Cassius]

Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom! "?

Well, yes : and reasons : 

Price/      Time/    Volume/

Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive.  This is advanced trading logic.

By example in this case:

IF  volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough.

IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows.

IF  price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low).

So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much.  Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V .

Aha! Great insight! In other words, what counts is mainly the sum of volume * price... right?
I'd never seen it from this angle, but it makes a lot of sense.

One thing I like about this place is that there's always something to take away. At least for me.

One way or another, the situation is "sufficient people have decided that $x is a good price that they won't let it go lower."

[scum]

Speaking of capitulation, I'm CONSIDERING starting to contemplate selling a batch - if I can - between $7.5-$8k before end of March just to get the tax monkey off my back. Sent an email to my accountant asking what the penalty is on $xM deferred from Q1 to Q2.

Seriously.

Sheeeit.

No proud to admit this.

Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.
EVERYONE.

Last summer majormax said there would be no new ATH for another few years. Bitcoin hit a $20k ATH half a year later.

... the trend is now down, and there will not be a new all time high for a couple of years or more.

This is a repeat of early 2014, the patterns are easy to see. The variation now is that the alts have a larger share of total market capitalisation. Capital will flow back to BTC, but it will not reverse the trend overall.

2 year view, BTC will fall 65% from the peak, alts will fall 70-90%  (with many going to zero ultimately)

Today he's making the same prediction of a few years of bear market without another ATH. His trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.

. ... and you are not ready to sell yet, but would be more ready at say $2500.

The key thing now (and it will prove impossible for most people) is to accept that whatever you hold will decline in $ price by another 75% (making 90% decline in total), and that will take place in a grinding downwards pattern, including long counter-trend rallies, spread over ~2 years.

[Searing]

Well...I will likely DIE with my BTC hoard intact...but if BTC hits $6k, I am annoucing here now I will panic sell like an 8 year old child...all my

non-hoard btc/ltc and probably a good chunk of my LISK ICO coins.....

I retired 1/14/18 (yep ..that bit of karma broke the crypto universe) so goal is NOT to touch soc sec or traditional investment and/or cover

health insurance next 3 years till I'm 66 years old. (my brother is broker of traditional investments)

thus my exit strategy and the FUD to follow on NOT selling at the high on Alts and my BTC hoard....my reply, HOPEFULLY, will be in 3 years if it all goes to sh*t...

'crypto allowed me to retire 3 years early...bite me'


as an end game it lacks a bit of class...but if the BTC hoard is intact.....well ..ugly but do'able.....will just have to 'suck it up'

the pucker factor is getting intense...at least for my ALT hoard....(don't ask about scrypt-pow mining I will start to cry...)

fun,fun

brad

[cAPSLOCK]

45.4

 

It's tickling with 45.5% now.

BTW, I'm not a very much chart specialist but doesn't this look like a double-bottom? No one seems to be talking about it.

Because it isn't one.  Yet.

[Majormax]

Who thinks that the situation can be summarized with a message like "Papas & mamas, dumb newcomers, please sell everything off before 5k! Doom! Doom! "?

Well, yes : and reasons : 

Price/      Time/    Volume/

Targets are mutually combined and partly exclusive.  This is advanced trading logic.

By example in this case:

IF  volume gets high enough, it will absolve price from getting low enough.

IF time elapsed (at say, low price level) is sufficient, it makes up for lower volume... in this case we are talking many months at the lows.

IF  price gets low enough, it can mark the bottom (ie spike low).

So therefore , price target cannot be set in stone where volume and time can vary so much.  Of course nobody can make precise predictions, but you will find that highs and lows over many markets long term have these peculiar properties of P/T/V .

Aha! Great insight! In other words, what counts is mainly the sum of volume * price... right?
I'd never seen it from this angle, but it makes a lot of sense.

One thing I like about this place is that there's always something to take away. At least for me.

Yes, you are a logical thinker.

Most people seem to think that there are pre determined price levels, whereas of course that is not true. You can always make estimates with if/but caveats, and I attempt to do that. My validation is in my successful trade over decades. I have made all my income and assets myself, entirely from trading.

You are right in that this is a great thread, with only a minimal amount of trolls and ad hominem attackers.

[criptix]

Well...I will likely DIE with my BTC hoard intact...but if BTC hits $6k, I am annoucing here now I will panic sell like an 8 year old child...all my

non-hoard btc/ltc and probably a good chunk of my LISK ICO coins.....

I retired 1/14/18 (yep ..that bit of karma broke the crypto universe) so goal is NOT to touch soc sec or traditional investment and/or cover

health insurance next 3 years till I'm 66 years old. (my brother is broker of traditional investments)

thus my exit strategy and the FUD to follow on NOT selling at the high on Alts and my BTC hoard....my reply, HOPEFULLY, will be in 3 years if it all goes to sh*t...

'crypto allowed me to retire 3 years early...bite me'


as an end game it lacks a bit of class...but if the BTC hoard is intact.....well ..ugly but do'able.....will just have to 'suck it up'

the pucker factor is getting intense...at least for my ALT hoard....(don't ask about scrypt-pow mining I will start to cry...)

fun,fun

brad

The day might come when the last hodler will forsaken BTC but this day is not today.

Today we just hodl and wet our pants  

[d_eddie]

Last summer majormax said there would be no new ATH for another few years. Bitcoin hit a $20k ATH half a year later.

(relevant quote snipped)

Today he's making the same prediction of a few years of bear market without another ATH. His trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.

(more doom and gloom stuff)

Great of you to out bunk predictions!
To use the words of our resident gay star,

Also, I've come to recognize everyone doing trade analysis of Bitcoin is full of shit.

which may well be the case. Predicting the future is an art for artists, visionaries, madmen. Over half of which are proved wrong anyway.

However, this doesn't detract from that specific observation: P/ T/ V/. I think it really makes a lot of sense, and it's a valuable tool to analyze any situation - not just the current one - and not necessarily to obtain accurate long term predictions. A few weeks would be more than enough in most crypto circumstances.