OK, so a deep correction at 48k, which is about 3x the bear market low. I guess that's why when we did a 3x from a bear market low of 2018/19 bear market (3k) we corrected (at 9k)... oh wait, we did not, we also did not correct at 10, 100, 12, and 13k... 

Then your theory could be right and wrong at the same time because we had another low (black swan in 2020) and what happened when we did 3x from that 4k? Yes, we corrected from 14k to 10k, but then we went parabolic straight to 41k. Literally the whole correction took 2 weeks and 6 months later we did 4x from that. Is it worth it trying to get 20% more on a good trade, when you risk missing the 400% move?

It's nothing special for those of us who saw bitcoin slide from 60k to 30k in 2021 and then go back to 70k. I've been saying it many times during the last bear market that for me 25k is the fair low for bitcoin and 20, maybe 19k is the low that bitcoin could go to. We went far below due to scams (Luna, FTX) which were artificially dragging bitcoin below its fair price.

As for the fair price concept, I agree with PlanB, although I accept even greater low margins than he does, because he aimed at 26-28k fair value in q3 2022 when we were scraping the bottom.

Anyway, I was telling people that selling below 20k is a bad idea, and here we are. I'm not surprised that we went to 40k, although I am surprised we did it before the halving.

Here's a thing to consider. What if this or that nation delegalizes something? Does it make it wrong? Should an international forum try to appease every single jurisdiction around the world?
Where's the line that when crossed it becomes too much for the forum to handle?

We allow people to trade bitcoin here, because it's a bitcoin forum, so why not allow them to mix? If the only reason for that is that it's illegal in some countries, then how many countries have to consider it illegal for the forum to take action? I doubt that mixing is illegal in El Salvador.

It's not that simple.
When I see people recommend real estate investments over bitcoin, I answer them with this:
Would you recommend people to buy land in Ukraine now? In 2021 there was a popular new settlement near Kiev full of expensive villas. The place was called Bucha...

Saying that your real estate investment will always grow in value is pretty naive. Maybe if you buy an apartment in New York or London it will be true, but for that you'll need a million dollars or pounds.
 

After reading all your posts I'm sure you've made up your mind. You want to keep playing. Why are you asking us if you know what you're going to do?
If I told you to cash out, you wouldn't do it because you're confident. Let's face it, you're looking for confirmation from us, that's all.

Is $400 a lot of money to you? Because that's what's at stake at the moment. You either leave with $400 or wait and potentially win another $400. If that amount is life changing to you, like it would allow you to buy a used motorcycle that would allow you to commute, or would pay your debts, I think you should cash out. If not, keep playing.

You're hitting the nail in the head.

They're responsible and alert because they're not high and need to take care of their money because it leads to getting high. That's why they have periods when they'll "work" and periods when they get completely wasted. They'll go to work during the day, then get high in the evening and wake up the next day completely wasted, but ready to earn more money for the evening.

I wouldn't compare these two. People who are addicted to hard drugs destroy themselves. They can never be completely normal and healthy again. The drugs will always leave them damaged.
A gambling addict can become a normal person and live a long and healthy life.

I think that it doesn't change anything whether you risk 1% or 10% of your income as long as you can afford it.

If we assume that the real probability of winning is at 45% or something like that, what does it change if you bet $1 ten times or $10 one time? The mathematical probability will remain the same and house edge subtracted from the amount you're betting will also be the same.

The only thing I see as a positive is that betting 1% will never have a negative influence on your life. 1% is nothing. Most people spend more on alcohol, cigarettes, items in online games, and other hobbies and addictions.

I always say that you should do whatever makes you happy. If 1% is satisfying for you you should keep on doing it.

What I meant by "they're not the sheep" is that there's a boundary that when crossed causes people to rise up and riot. You could for instance see it when the governments enforced covid lockdowns.

Yes, people like convenience and usually don't care where the money comes from, which is why they use credit cards and will probably use CBDC money, but it will all stop when the government forbids them to use any other form of payment (cash, crypto) and when they get to feel the impact of social credit scores and carbon footprint taxation. IMO people who are for CBDCs and might use them don't realize yet what they'll bring to the table along with the so called convenience.


Using your analogy, you're being moved from a normal prison to maximum security, but you're still in jail. If that isn't a bad thing then what is?
I'd call them bad because they bring along complete elimination of other forms of payment once enough people use them along fiat money.

They will first invite you to use CBDC, by lowering taxes, giving people free money if they register and download wallets, (which is the carrot) and once there's enough market penetration they'll start using the stick and increasing fees when you use other money, impose additional taxes on merchants who continue to use fiat, decrease the number of available ATMs, increase limits on cash payments and finally remove cash completely. They'll stop printing it and the bills that are in exchange will become scarcer. Also, in countries with high inflation it will take maybe 10 years before there's a need for larger bills and the gov. will not print them, to make it inconvenient for people to carry bags of cash around. The problem will solve itself.

Sports betting makes me feel like I have an edge because I understand and watch certain sports. I know that people who do influence the odds so you could go blind into these games where people bet on one team and win some money most of the time, because you're not the only one who knows what you're doing, or at least not the one that thinks it

Like many people here a single bet on a sport event gives me long lasting entertainment. You play slots and it's 1 click and poof $5 is gone. I can bet $5 on a football team and watch it play for 90 minutes with excitement.

That's because agencies want easy money, just like hackers. They prefer to go after an exchange like Binance because they're easy to get and can be forced into submission. Let's not forget that agencies know registered companies have the money and can pay fines, unlike hackers who have everything encrypted and sit in an apartment rented by a friend of a friend, eating ramen noodles all day. How do you find someone who doesn't exist? These people often don't have homes, any property, everything they own is rented using fake names.

They all learned from how Ross was caught and won't order any fake IDs to their home address

Spending the money they get from these attacks is going to be difficult though, like it was dificult for the bitfinex duo.

It would be impossible because people live so far from each other that they'd eventually form dialects and then unattached languages.
You should read about the evolution of languages and that would answer a lot of your questions. Language is just a part of the whole culture and it's not one thing that makes people feel related to each other and allows them to find common ground. If that was a thing there would never be a single civil war.


Tell that to Russians and Ukrainians. Their languages are almost the same and they were even one country for a time.


In short, distance. Language evolved simultaneously in many parts of the world when there was no way to travel that far. Getting from South Africa to Central Europe would take you years, so people stayed in one place their whole lives and had to communicate somehow. They begun to name basic items, sun, earth, forest, and these things evolved from simple sounds into more complex words, as we became smarter.

Private jets. He owns at least 5. The brands are even listed if you google it. It's public knowledge. The boss himself has a carbon footprint of a small town, yet he wants to stop you and me from having our own.


Then don't argue with me, since you read my sentence the wrong way, so I'll rephrase it for you.
I said that most of them (meaning creadit card users) think the money on a bank card are real cash converted to bank balance. I never said that I'm one of these people.

It looks like your whole post was based on a wrong assumption.


Sweden is an experiment on so many levels. Migration, money... I'd say the country is not doing so well because of that.

He's right. Ultimately it comes down to chemistry. When we gamble we feel fear, excitement, a loss is followed by depression, we feel tired, but the next day we often feel full of energy like we now have to work twice harder to make up for the loss. When we win it's euphoria, that feeling of accomplishment all gamblers look for.

Not many people know that we can get that in many other ways, for instance by doing work that is visible, helps you and/or others. When you decide to remodel the house and it looks great, you show it to your friends and they want the same thing done at their places. That's when you feel appreciated, accomplished. There's so many ways to release dopamine, and you can quit gambling by doing something else that makes your body react the same way, like climbing a mountain or jumping with a parachute.

It was in fact designed for small transactions like the ones that people who DCA send. It's either that or you save up/go lump sum.

I keep saying that DCA is only if you have no other way of buying bitcoin, so you get a monthly income/allowance/pension and you have to pay your bills which leaves you with a certain small amount of money to buy food, clothes, invest, therefore buying $50 worth of bitcoin every month seems like the way to go.
If you have savings, don't DCA, especially in the bull market when every month of waiting means you get less bitcoin for the same money. Ultimately you want the most bitcoin for the least fiat possible.

IMO people aren't the sheep some posters here think they are. Yes, they chose credit cards over cash, but that's because most of them were certain that the money on their card is real cash converted to ones and zeros. The risk of using a card over cash wasn't really that big for your average joe, but the convenience was greatly increased.

When it comes to CBDCs most people don't care because they don't have to deal with it right now, nobody forces them to use it, there's a chance it will not go live in their lifetimes, they don't know the details because governments sell it to them as a new, more digital fiat money, that can be assigned to a face ID. This doesn't sound bad if that's all you know.
Joe thinks about it and comes to a conclusion that if he loses his wallet abroad, he'll still be able to buy a ticket home by simply getting scanned at the airport. Pretty convenient if you ask me.
If they start blocking people for their social media activity, fining them for what they write online, there's going to be riots, unless they choose to deal with it like China  did and roll out the tanks.

It mainly depends on the team you gather as a CEO. There are different personalities in every field. Some people like being told what to do, others don't. There are people who accept jokes, even when they are a bit inappropriate, while others will take everything to themselves.

If you're a psychopathic slave driver CEO who makes a lot of money for the company, you need a money oriented team that doesn't care about the atmosphere at work and can take a lot of punishment as long as they walk out of there with a full pocket. That's why stock trading companies are full of these psychopaths because they're there to make a lot of money in a short time and leave it behind them. Most stock traders resign from their jobs after a few years and they admit the job is for young people because you get burned out fast.

I'd prefer a boss who is a leader we look up to, treats us good and stays calm under pressure than a screaming nerve ball of a boss who pays more, but makes you feel like shit.

I don't know how to make you feel better. The only thing that comes to my mind is that your country isn't the worst. Venezuela experienced a much larger inflation growth, you have the worst inflation in total, but since there are countries that experienced a larger increase, maybe you're topping out? Oh, and you also don't have a war going on in there, which is starting to become an important positive factor

Yes, a normal fiat currency inflating at 5% can feel like a good and working payment vehicle, but once you get above 50% a year you're done, the currency is going towards a reset and the only question is how big the damage will be. That's why countries like Sri Lanka are barely holding the 50% level, but they won't be able to maintain it because people always wake up too late, when the inflation is already above 20%. Before that they believe the government will fix it all.

We all know that the worst time to sell bitcoin is in the bottom of a bear market and the second worst time is before the halving.

There are things I need and buy on Black Friday, but these aren't big purchases, so I don't need to sell bitcoin. This year I bought myself some car parts, like wipers and winter floor mats because the discounts were nice and I needed that anyway. Nothing too expensive. I also bought Christmas gifts for my wife and daughter, all paid using fiat money.

What would you want to buy that is expensive enough to warrant selling bitcoin for? The average person will have some income and some fiat savings, so if they want a new washing machine, or a computer they can afford it and many stores allow you to get an instant loan, or pay in installments. To be forced to sell my bitcoin I'd have to be buying land, a house, or a car and these things rarely come in black friday 30% off deals.

It's hard to say how this will evolve, but you can expect bitcoin fees to rise in future and also new solutions to be invented, the way LN was.


Because there was a network spam happening back then when Craig Wright and Roger Ver wanted to show the world that Bitcoin is slow and bitcoin clones are not, but that was because they were spamming bitcoin and nobody used their shitcoins.

Unless OP is an attention seeker and there was no hack
As they say in the bitcoin space, don't trust, verify.

If this story is real it's because OP was completely careless about his coins.
You can be careful, average or careless here and a careful person would have a hardware wallet or a multisig setup. Your average holder would have an offline device with at least one backup and an antivirus software. A careless person would have a desktop wallet with a password in a txt file, would hold the private key in a password manager and allow all his family to use the computer for movies, pirated software and all the other stuff they do.