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4101  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why are bitcoins in december better than bitcoins today? (ICBIT) on: September 19, 2012, 12:38:27 PM
Essentially, you are buying bitcoins for delivery in december, why are people willing to pay 1.5$ more for that?
[...]
If the price has gone up, you loose on the icbit account, but that is compensated by the rise in value of the rest of your coins - and reversely if price drops.  An (almost *) risk-free investment returning 11% in three month (or 55% per year).  Pretty good, for a risk-free investment in dollars!

You can still lose.

Your gains from the margin variance adjustment paid daily max out at 5% [Update: 10% ...   "Maximum price change within one trading session: 10% in each direction relative to the close price of the last trading session.":
 - https://icbit.se/BUZ2 ]

So let's say the price rises to $13.80 (where the futures are at about right now), but then drops quickly, 15% in a single day.  The clearing price might have moved close to that 15% but your margin variance on your short position will only give you a gain of 5% [Update: 10%] for that day.  

[Edit: I may be mistaken on that.  I don't know if there is just a 10% limit, and it just takes additional day(s) to earn the remaining margin variance adjustment or if anything exceeding 10% is lost.    I give a specific example here:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50817.msg1246688#msg1246688
but haven't seen an official response to it yet, and there hasn't been a a day with more than a 10% move to see the actual handling.]
4102  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: EMP Pulses and Bitcoin Exchanges on: September 19, 2012, 12:17:47 PM
How does MtGox or other services defend against this?  Paper wallet?  Faraday Cage?  Can anyone from Mt. Gox comment on this?


Here was a recent post:


- Does [MtGox] use cold storage (an offline wallet that cannot be accessed should the exchange's service become compromised)

Yes.


 - Is there a target as to how much of customer's funds are kept in cold storage?  (e.g., percent of total, or perhaps relative to recent withdrawal requirements)?

On average 98% of customer bitcoins are held in cold storage, with possible variations on large bitcoin moves (large deposits or customers asking for large withdrawals).


 - Does the offline wallet where the cold storage resides remain protected due to an "air gap" (no access to it electronically, not connected to the network)?

Offline wallets are generated from an offline system and kept in paper format in three separate locations, using a technology based on raid. It will likely be changed to use Shamir's Secret-Sharing method in the future, and all existing offline wallets will be converted to this.

 - Does [MtGox] maintain offsite backups of its accounts and transactions?  If for some reason the exchange's primary account database were lost due to a security breach, what information (and how recent) is still available from backup or archives?

We have realtime onsite backups on a separate system, and offsite backups at regular intervals. We are working on modifying the system to have a multi-site cluster working (working with people from Percona to reach the best system on this) - which would allow us to have a node of the cluster used to make backups way more often
4103  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Best Way To Get BitCoins In The UK (anything but MtGox!) on: September 19, 2012, 12:10:14 PM
Was wondering if any of you can advise on the most simple way to get BTC in the UK? MtGox I find very irrating, and the forms of documentation they ask for to get verified (as I wish to do a bank transfer) I don't trust providing online.

You can send cash (GBP) or check to Bitcoin Nordic, by mail, to purchase bitcoins:
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Nordic

But with Intersango sucking wind without a bank in the UK right now, there isn't much.

The only other market exchange with service from UK banks is Mt. Gox.  With Mt. Gox you can deposit cash at Barclays for credit to your Mt. Gox account.  A 1.5% fee applies.  You don't need to register anything other than an e-mail address with Mt. Gox (though they may grief you if you use Tor to access your account).

 - https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/MtGox#UK_.28GBP.29

There is a site called London Bitcoin Exchange, though there is not much about them yet so if you do trade, perhaps use an escrow.
 - http://londonbitcoinexchange.wordpress.com/

You might find a local trader (or place an buy order and see if anyone is selling):
 - http://www.LocalBitcoins.com
4104  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Re-Occuring Subscritption Payments Solution? on: September 19, 2012, 11:57:36 AM
Is there any solution anywhere that will allow me to setup free trials + re-occuring payments on a website?

This will probably come from a wallet provider.  Like CoinBase for instance.   Also BitPay.com was describing how they might be able to do it.
4105  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: does moneypack to paypal raise red flags? on: September 19, 2012, 11:49:52 AM
All things considered, do you think 2,500/mo being loaded to your PP account via moneypak would raise a red flag? Yes/No

A red flag where?

If Green Dot and PayPal do not see as problematic loading $4K / month then there's nothing problematic with sending $2.5K either.

But will the IRS still have visibility to it?  Making an educated guess here but, then yes - absolutely they do.  Even $1 / month they can know of it or already do know it when it happens.
4106  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the real risk of a 51% attack? on: September 19, 2012, 11:40:42 AM
Hear me now, believe me later... as soon as Bitcoin gets traction the US Government will attack it with whatever resources they have.

Either take a Xanax, or listen to this Cypherpunk'd episode with a replay of an panel with Phillip R. Zimmerman and other cypherpunks.

About two decades ago, Philip R. Zimmerman and other cypherpunks were continuously being asked by the press and at business meetings about what the government would do to them when the day came it would crack down on their efforts to get cryptography software (PGP) into the parts of the world where it was badly needed.

Ends up, Philip says, the government never even contacted them.

 - http://www.bitcoinmoney.com/post/6136537609
 - http://library.agoristradio.com/library/cypherpunkd/cypherpunkd-EP039.mp3
4107  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2012-09-19 BitcoinMagazine.com - Ogrr Merges with MMOExchange, Quintuples Userba on: September 19, 2012, 11:30:02 AM
Other / prior discussion on this can be found here:


OGRR.COM just increased FIVEFOLD his userbase

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109545.0
4108  Bitcoin / Press / Re: NEW articles in Press Forum on: September 19, 2012, 11:26:45 AM
2012-09-19 BitcoinMagazine.com - Ogrr Merges with MMOExchange, Quintuples Userba

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110585.0
4109  Bitcoin / Press / 2012-09-19 BitcoinMagazine.com - Ogrr Merges with MMOExchange, Quintuples Userba on: September 19, 2012, 11:26:21 AM
I know this forum board exists generally so that external news about bitcoin is referenced in one place, but not every blog post from a Bitcoiner would be a good fit here and not every press release from a Bitcoin vendor would go here. 

Bu this is an article about a business development and is well written so I believe it is appropriate to post in this board (i.e., if the same article were on any other news source it would get posted in this board.)

So ..

Quote
Ogrr, with 3611 users currently, will be merging in 14643 users of MMOExchange, creating a new combined community over 18000 users strong.

MMOExchange users will also gain access to the key feature that makes Ogrr what it is: Bitcoin integration.

Ogrr originally launched last December when Jesse Powell, then using the trading forum d2jsp, was scammed for 20,000 units of d2jsp’s centrally managed internal currency, 'forum gold'.

 - http://bitcoinmagazine.net/ogrr-merges-with-mmoexchange-quintuples-userbase/
4110  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: OGRR.COM just increased FIVEFOLD his userbase on: September 19, 2012, 11:18:19 AM
Great summary in Bitcoin Magazine:

Ogrr Merges with MMOExchange, Quintuples Userbase

 - http://bitcoinmagazine.net/ogrr-merges-with-mmoexchange-quintuples-userbase
4111  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: does moneypack to paypal raise red flags? on: September 19, 2012, 10:35:00 AM
Let's pretend my friend gave me $4,000 in money packs every month and I transfered that money to my paypal account for an entire year.... i.e. $48,000 to my PP account..

Do you plan to spend this on your PayPal either with a PayPal debit card or for PayPal person-to-person transfers?  Because you can't withdraw those funds deposited with MoneyPak using your debit card at an ATM.

would this be flagged by paypal or the IRS?

PayPal allows $4K per-month (max) after you've verified your PayPal account.

There are no problems with giving or receiving gifts even for that amount.

There doesn't appear to be anything that PayPal or Green Dot would have a problem with as far as I can tell.   

As far as what the IRS does with bank / financial transactions for trying to suss out leads as to who isn't reporting income, I have no idea.  To be clear, Green Dot is now a "bank holding company regulated by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System".  Make no mistake, every MoneyPak transfer is tracked from where it was bought to where it was redeemed (and identity of the merchant or person that redeemed it).  And the IRS has complete access to this tracking information.
4112  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Best way to move fiat? I hate Dwolla. on: September 19, 2012, 09:36:18 AM
Better way to move fiat from a US bank account to an exchange??

BitFloor was a nice alternative, ... they're gone [Upate: they're back].

Camp BX will accept a personal check, but if you thought Dwolla was slow, mailing a check will definitely take longer.

But for $500 or larger, you can use Bitcoins Direct and deposit cash at a bank (any B of A, PNC Bank, or Wells Fargo branch).  You can also use funds from OKPay which you can transfer from your bank but if you didn't like Dwolla's AML/KYC I doubt OKPay's will be any different.


Here's a pretty comprehensive list of options:

 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Buying_bitcoins
4113  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: NMC->BTC Options on: September 19, 2012, 09:33:43 AM
so two sites I know:


BTC-E is another, as is CryptoXChange.
 
4114  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin cannot be filled with Tungsten on: September 19, 2012, 09:00:19 AM
The funny part is that these polished, stamped, numbered bars tend to fetch a premium over the spot price.  This makes them easy targets, since the owners would be less likely to perform any type of destructive testing on them.


We have that same risk with physical bitcoins.    I hated to peel a 25 BTC coin I had purchased as it holds a premium over the 25 BTC it protected by the hologram.  But I did eventually for two reasons, one -- I wanted to be able to confirm first-hand that the code underneath was truly valid -- funded and matched the code on the outside of the coin.  The second reason is because I'ld nearly lost it several times showing it around (as a prop whenever I'm describing Bitcoin to someone in-person.)  At least now, fully spent, I'm only losing a few dollars worth of value if it gets lost.


Here's the tungsten incident from earlier this year:



Bitcoin, 100% Pure w/No Tungsten - Miners Make Sure Of It

  - http://www.bitcoinminer.com/post/19914661084
4115  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: GetBitcoin - New Site For Exchanging Bitcoin/USD on: September 19, 2012, 08:36:48 AM
GetBItcoin.com currently shows:

Quote
Application Error
An error occurred in the application and your page could not be served. Please try again in a few moments.

If you are the application owner, check your logs for details.

 - http://GetBitcoin.com

Previously, was http://Get-Bitcoin.com and that gives the same response.

SSL still is valid , shows the same thing as above.

 - https://www.get-bitcoin.com
4116  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: bitfloor needs your help! on: September 19, 2012, 07:47:08 AM
- the exchange would still hold the fiat currency (which they can hold much more safely than bitcoins). They would use the block chain to confirm the trade has occurred.
If the trade hasn't occurred, then it's the same as someone cancelling an order in the orderbook just before the trade takes place.

If you are describing where the transaction is started when the bitcoins are sent, then you have the possibility that two or more people will send coins attempting to sell to the same buy order.   

If instead you have it where the transaction starts with an electronic notice and then followed is a transaction through the blockchain then you have the legitimate scenario where the order can be removed from the pool without payment.

But there's probably ways to deal with this ... like enough of a deposit required so that if you don't settle after transmitting intent then a fee is assessed against your deposited funds. 
4117  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: GLBSE 2.0 open for testing on: September 19, 2012, 07:12:04 AM
Yes and no, although you're descriptions are handy, they're not comprehensive.
The differences are not just what is in the names.

I had been asked for the reasons behind the color scheme.  I hadn't seen this thread, but wanted to share my response to the question.

Quote
Actually what is the purpose of "color" market?

The Blue Market, I'm assuming, comes from the term Wall Street uses to refer to its premium companies ... Blue Chip stocks.   The term Blue Chip comes from poker play, where chips are different colors for different denominations.  In a typical Red, White and Blue set of chips the white might be $1, red being $5 and blue chips at $10.    So it simply refers to "top shelf" stocks.

I'm making assumptions as to how GLBSE came up with the names, but they make sense.

So the next level, White market is basically "commoner" companies.  i.e., more risky than blue chips but you probably are safe, the owner has provided identity to GLBSE, is valued by the varket.

The lower tier is Pink, again a Wall Street reference.  Pink sheet stocks are the bottom tier.  Penny stocks, including new companies that have no track record and aren't valued enough to make it onto the higher levels, as well as previously listed companies that no longer are reporting their results in a timely manner.  Pink sheet stocks are often times scams, and others are high risk but end up doing quite wall too. 

Black market is probably for stuff like stocks issued by anonymous (unverified) parties, possible ponzi stocks, ones that possibly operate illegally (e.g. if someone were to issue a stock to buy and sell pirated music, for instance, it might appear under black market.)
4118  Other / Off-topic / Re: Least action principle as an alternative proof of work system on: September 19, 2012, 06:46:55 AM
I don't quite understand your question.  Please rephrase.

I guess that's because I have no idea what folding is really doing.

But if reaching a result for a folding problem using today's existing methods takes 10,000 operations, let's say, and the method to get the same result when done through this "least action / alternate" method takes 15,000 operations, then there is a 50% efficiency loss.    

That's what I was getting at..., is the loss minimal or might it be large?

[Edit: fix typo on math.]
4119  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the real risk of a 51% attack? on: September 19, 2012, 06:36:58 AM
We really need to plan for such attacks and make the system robust enough to handle anything thrown at it.

As far as the 51% attack, assurance that it is even less likely to occur could very well be coming in a short amount of time:

From the Bitcoin wiki:

Quote
ASICs

As of September 18, 2012 there are no ASIC products shipping yet and no ASICs used in mining, at least nothing that has been publicly announced.
The vendors and products announced include:

-----------------
* Butterfly Labs (BFL)
** BitForce SC - Availability: First shipments from "possibly late October" ranging to "before Christmas 2012". Over 35 THash/s has been pre-ordered. Discussion

*** BitForce Jalapeno - 3.5 Ghash/s for $149 Pre-sale order
*** BitForce Single 'SC' - 40 Ghash/s for $1,299 Pre-sale order
*** BitForce Mini Rig 'SC' 1,000 Ghash/s for $29,899 Pre-sale order

-----------------
* BitcoinASIC.com
** bASIC - Availability: n/a. Discussion

*** Model: bASIC01 27 Ghash/s for $1,070 Pre-sale order

-----------------
* ngzhang
** Avalon - Availability: First 300 units (pre-orders), December 2012. Full production: February 2013. Discussion

*** Avalon 60 Ghash/s for $1,299 (pre-order), $1,999 (after first 300 units sold)

-----------------
* DeepBit
** Reclaimer - Availability: n/a Discussion

*** Reclaimer One 4Ghash/s for $320 (1 Ghash/s bonds redeemable for hardware traded on ICBIT)
*** Reclaimer 4A 8 Ghash/s for $520 (1 Ghash/s bonds redeemable for hardware traded on ICBIT)
*** Reclaimer RM 80 Ghash/s for $2,800 (1 Ghash/s bonds redeemable for hardware traded on ICBIT)

-----------------
* ASICMINER
** ASICMINER will not be selling hardware to the public and instead will supply ASICs to MOORE mining. Shares of both ASICMINER and MOORE are sold on GLBSE. Availability: Not disclosed. Discussion

 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison#ASICs
4120  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: BitCoin business barrier to entry on: September 19, 2012, 06:32:18 AM
I think the major problem in btc in RL businesses would be the 10 min confirm cost.

Can you name a scenario in which this is a problem?

So far the extensive list of businesses where this is a problem is:

 - coin vending machines
 - merchants without a continuous data connection
 - ATMs
 - currency exchanges
 - larger purchase amounts (over $100)

Seriously, that's about it.

When properly configured (no incoming connections, outgoing connection explicitly made to well connected nodes), the risk of getting a successful double spend are trivially low. 

If one out of thirty attempts of a race attack is successful (which is much higher than what likely would happen), that means that twenty-nine weren't successful and thus normal sales occurred twenty-nine times.  If the attacker will lose money there is no incentive. 

The merchant that accepts on 0/unconfirmed has no defense against a Finney attack but the attacker of that holding a block must act within seconds -- each second a block is held costs the miner more than $1.  An attacker holding up from broadcasting a solved block for one minute costs the attacker $60 (on average).

But for 95% of brick and mortar merchant scenarios, accepting bitcoins on 0/unconfirmed is "safe enough" to use.  There will be intermediaries who will take this risk for the merchant in exchange for a fee, so the merchant knows the exact cost.
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