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4021  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Investing in Mircea Popescu's Options Emporium on: September 24, 2012, 12:12:34 AM
Quote
Could you describe what that breakdown is?

MPOE bought 7,100 CALL contracts. MPOE sold 12,312 CALL contracts. MPOE bought 23,764 PUT contracts. MPOE sold 32,472 PUT contracts.

So in the case where I have a CALL that I offer to sell and that gets purchased by another individual trader, does that volume appear in your +/- (bought/sold) numbers?
4022  Economy / Economics / Re: The current bitcoin market is inefficient on: September 23, 2012, 11:16:31 PM
I don't think anyone who is making money on their private prediction strategy is going to be sharing it.

Well, the Weekend Dip strategy has been covered in the open:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=63312.0
4023  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Weekend Dip Myth on: September 23, 2012, 11:07:39 PM
Maybe the weekend dip has a fair place in other securities, but doesnt apply for bitcoin.


Though this weekend didn't have a Weekend Dip GREEN light, going short into this weekend would have given a couple percent or four gain (after subtracting exchange fees), if the timing were perfect:



 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#ig2-hourzczsg2012-09-21zeg2012-09-23ztgSzm1g10zm2g25


But when there's no green light, this doesn't always play out.  There would have been nearly a 5% loss trying the weekend dip trade last week (heading into the Bitcoin 2012 conference weekend):

 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#ig2-hourzczsg2012-09-14zeg2012-09-16ztgSzm1g10zm2g25


So there isn't that great of a pattern except during downtrends -- which is the only time when the GREEN light will go on, and has resulted in a profit well more than 50% of the time when it does go green.  The profits in following the strategy (only when GREEN is on) have more than offset the losses from weekends where it was on but gave an incorrect signal.

Maybe this weekend dip is just coincidence, who knows.
4024  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: GetBitcoin - New Site For Exchanging Bitcoin/USD on: September 23, 2012, 10:43:46 PM
Same happened to me.  I sent them a money order, and they keep making excuses.  I'm starting to suspect I'm never going to get my money back.

The operator's identity is publicly known (see whois for getbitcoin.com domain) and is based in the U.S. (GetBitcoin LLC is registered entity in the State of Delaware - File# 4997818).

Hopefully, if they are winding down or whatever the situation is they'll either deliver or refund in full.
4025  Other / Meta / Re: Forum no longer has Search, Watching, UnreadReplies, etc? on: September 23, 2012, 10:31:37 PM
Yes, it could be the case. Look on your right for a "+" sign

Ah ... so this was an ID ten T problem.


As in, I am an ID 10 T

Yes, that was it.

Sorry.
4026  Other / Meta / Re: Forum no longer has Search, Watching, UnreadReplies, etc? on: September 23, 2012, 10:08:27 PM
I still see them.

Weird.  On mine, the section does not show.




I was expecting:

Quote
Show unread posts since last visit.
Show new replies to your posts.
Watchlist
Total time logged in: ...
News


Maybe I changed some setting somewhere?
4027  Other / Meta / [Closed] Forum no longer has Search, Watching, UnreadReplies, etc? on: September 23, 2012, 09:37:37 PM
What happened to the forum?  I no longer see how I can get the Search, UnreadReplies, Watching, etc?

These are still available with the link, but have gone missing from the navigation section at the top of each page on the forum:

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=search (Search)
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=unreadreplies (Updated Topics / Unread Replies)
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=unread  (Unread Topics)
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=watchlist (Watchlist)
4028  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Looking for a bitcoin research article on: September 23, 2012, 09:27:40 PM
Can anyone remember the article?

I haven't read the report but CommitCoin perhaps might lead toward the answer:

 - http://people.scs.carleton.ca/~clark/projects/commitcoin/
4029  Economy / Economics / Re: The current bitcoin market is inefficient on: September 23, 2012, 08:37:15 PM
Markets being efficient means that price movements become a random walk. Bitcoin prices are almost certainly predictable

Easy to say in hindsight. 

Well, put some predictions out there and let us keep score.

So far, about the only prediction I've seen ending up being right more than 50% of the time is what is called the "Weekend Dip Strategy" (which says that in a downtrend, shorting bitcoin on a Wednesday evening (West) / Thursday morning (East) and covering at some point before new money arrives the following week is more often than not a profitable trade.)

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=63312.120


Everything else seems to come from a permabear (sell now, and sell more tomorrow) or permabull (buy now, and continue buying forever):

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0
4030  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Libertopia: Private city in Honduras will have minimal taxes, government. on: September 23, 2012, 06:32:50 PM
Honduras plans to create other “free cities” as well.

Another thread on the topic:

Bitcoin in Honduras' new charter cities

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=53990.0
4031  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Sale of Gold forbidden in Argentina on: September 23, 2012, 05:56:39 PM
Time for Bitcoin?

Argentina is becoming the poster child for capital controls:


2012-09-14 - Inversor Global - "I would put my savings into bitcoins"
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110075.0
 - http://www.igdigital.com/2012/09/yo-pondria-mis-ahorros-en-bitcoins/


Argentina Begins Tracking All Credit Cards
 - http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/09/04/argentina-begins-tracking-all-credit-cards/
4032  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Electrum needs your old junk devices (androids, iphones or Macs) on: September 23, 2012, 05:26:54 PM
- Android phones (NFC is a big plus)

In the U.S. a new LG Optimus Elite with NFC is available with no contract for $100 delivered (free shipping) in the U.S.

 - http://www.bestbuy.com/site/Virgin-Mobile---LG-Optimus-Elite-Mobile-Phone---Black/5177574.p?id=1218635228899&skuId=5177574

Perhaps you'ld find a few people willing to toss in a few BTCs to buy one for the cause.

I'll pledge 2 BTC towards it if you start a collection for this.
4033  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Bristol pound on: September 23, 2012, 04:52:35 PM
Is their logo infringement? -surely inspired by the "Bitcoins accepted here" banner.

Is the Bitcoin logo copyrighted?


More importantly, even they did copy it verbatim exchange change the name.  Did they deprive anyone else of their property?


Incidentally, there is another local currency in use in the UK, the Brixton pound:

4034  Economy / Gambling / Re: [ANN] Instant SicBo for BTC on: September 23, 2012, 07:11:23 AM
  • Provably fair (all our games use cryptographic private+public key generated results which can be verified by the player once the private secret is
Can you show how a player would verify?

I see the file for the secret:

 - http://satoshiroulette.com/secrets/btc.secret.20120923.000001.txt

Is that just the hash for the current day, or perhaps that is the secret for the previous day's wagers?
4035  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Need to establish myself on: September 23, 2012, 06:23:09 AM
if something in my potential offering is against the rules.

It isn't against the forum's rules, ... but Green Dot has a different opinion on the matter:

MoneyPak is an excellent way to cash out of bitcoin where you then use that MP to reload a debit card or PayPal, for instance.

But MoneyPak is a horrible way to try to buy bitcoins.  Here's why:

The problem is no commercial service can accept MoneyPak as payment for the purchase of bitcoins.  Green Dot doesn't want that happening.  They only allow you using the MoneyPak codes with authorized merchants or for loading funds to your own debit card.  So the only ones where trading MoneyPak for bitcoins is happening is with individuals who accept MoneyPak for payment when selling bitcoins person-to-person and are small enough to operate below Green Dot's radar.  The person that accepts MoneyPak then uses it to load a PayPal account or to add funds to a reloadable debit card.

Cashing out your bitcoins to MoneyPak is not a problem, and there are a couple of commercial services which offer this:

 - http://www.BTCPak.com
 - http://www.FastCash4Bitcoins.com  [Update: Discontinued cash-out to MoneyPak]
 

MoneyPak is a bearer instrument -- anyone who knows the code can spend it.

There are a few ways these MoneyPak codes can end up in the hands of thieves and criminal hackers who then trade them for bitcoins.

The theif might even provide what seems to be a valid MoneyPak code and the person selling bitcoins might see the funds loaded into the PayPal account or wherever the code were used but then later the funds are reversed after the rightful owner of the code reports theft.

To regain access to the funds, the person that accepted the MoneyPak needs to provide to Green Dot a copy of the receipt used to purchase the MoneyPak, using cash.  Even with that, if there is someone else with the same receipt reporting the theft, that person would likely lose the dispute as another person was actually the party that bought the MoneyPak from the store.

So it comes down to ... you are offering a payment method that is reversible and is frequently used to defraud.   If you had a trust history, then you might find sellers willing to trust you for smaller amounts.  But trying to start out of the gate selling MoneyPak without months of good prior trading history is not likely going to get you many trades.

In the U.S. there are cash deposit methods that are available to you.  

Deposit $500 or more at Bank of America, Wells Fargo , or PNC bank and buy bitcoins at Mt. Gox's rate or better:

 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=87094.0

If after a trade you would like a rating added to your #Bitcoin-otc Web of Trust (WoT) history, I'm sure that provider would be happy to oblige.
4036  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcoin hacked questions on: September 23, 2012, 05:05:30 AM
Usually they are talking about some individual case of a break in or security breach.  

Explain that if the specific incident they happened to have learned about means "Bticoin was hacked" then using the same logic one could make the claim from the photo below that  "Bank of America was hacked!"




Those were bills stolen in a robbery from a Bank of America.
4037  Other / Off-topic / Re: Butterfly Labs Pre-Sales Not Covered by Paypal? on: September 22, 2012, 11:15:29 PM
PayPal permits pre-sales on a limited basis, only if the seller guarantees delivery within 20 days from the date of purchase and clearly identifies the item as a pre-sale. PayPal may apply additional conditions, such as proof of the seller's ability to successfully deliver the product: supplier information, purchase invoices, postal information or proof of delivery.[/i]


What that says is that BFL is either unaware of that policy or is accepting pre-sales orders regardless, essentially playing chicken with PayPal.  What PayPal might do is hold a reserve against each of the payments. 


But that doesn't mean you as the customer are any less protected than if PayPal did allow it. 

If you pay with a credit card you are even more protected ... you can issue a chargeback within 60 days of your first statement showing the charge.

Now whether it makes economic sense to buy an ASIC, that's purely speculation at this point.
4038  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2012-09-22 nhcaptv.com - Intro to Bitcoin on: September 22, 2012, 09:30:09 PM
Ha, the interviewer basically had to whack Whitlock over the head to get him to admit that some bitcoins get used for illicit transactions.
4039  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Is a wallet backup compatible from a client to another client? on: September 22, 2012, 08:46:18 PM
Yup it's compatible, but if there was ever a significant change in the wallet format or anything like that, then it would perhaps not work with older versions.

Someone correct me if I am wrong.

EDIT:Unless you are talking about alternate clients, such as Electrum, Armory in which case I've no idea.

Backups of wallet.dat from older revisions can be used with newer clients.    The reverse may not always be true.

Backups of wallet.dat are generally no compatible with alternatives to the Bitcoin.org client.     The private keys from the wallet.dat can be exported without needing the Bitcoin.org client (using a tool such as pywallet) or with Gavin's bitcointools utility.  Those keys can then be imported into most alternative clients.

Mt. Gox has an API call that will allow an entire wallet.dat to be imported and funds swept into that user's Mt. Gox account.


4040  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Betsofbitco.in on: September 22, 2012, 08:42:19 PM
For other newbies, I've been having fun over on Betsofbitco.in

There's also a reddit for discussion of the site or for any of the bets,

 - http://www.reddit.com/r/betsofbitcoin

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