US Elections & The Rise Of Mobile Donations


 - http://mondato.com/en/articles/us-elections-the-rise-of-mobile-donations

It's an estimate as it can't know either future hashing capacity or variance.

In 2011 there were adjustment periods with so much new capacity coming online that it took just 8 or 9 days to reach the next difficulty adjustment period.  (The fastest was in 2010, in under 4 days).    Later in October 2011, as a few miners were powering down it took 17 days to reach the next adjustment period.

But since early June there have been a dozen increases in a row though by relatively small amounts (near 10% or less), and so far the current one is about even with no increase or decrease apparent right now.

So with just about 10 days left, the resulting likely time range is narrowing.

If you are in the U.S., it is looking quite likely that the halving will occur on Wednesday Nov. 28th.    Though it is entirely possible that more capacity could come online and it occur on the 27th, or it could slow and it would be later on the 29th.    We could see an even earlier date if at the 11th hour here some ASIC capacity were to reach Bitcoin main net, but there's nobody saying that is likely to occur.   And I doubt many miners are powering down their hardware yet, so I don't think we'll see a slowing.

 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Category:Local

The one with the most likelihood of finding a trade is:
 - http://www.LocalBitcoins.com

I think that distributing bitcoins that a Skittles the unicorn farts out would be more effective marketing than the existing method where a dollar's worth of bitcoin is spent on "marketing" yet the recipient, the miner, only gets a few cents of that (after subtracting costs for electricity and capital costs).

Bitcoin needed a system to subsidize the mining function until the currency has enough traction where it can be self-sustaining with transaction fees.  Now once the bitcoin subsidy drops in half, there will still be enough mining capacity remaining to provide the needed service (preventing double spending).  And in four years when it drops again, the number of transactions fess will be higher so there will be even less need then for the higher subsidy.  And four years after that, even more transaction fees and thus less subsidy is needed.  And on and on.

There's currently way more capacity than is needed, but there is not yet enough from the transaction fees to meet the needed level.  So the subsidy is doing its jobs, and it dropping in half next week won't hurt the security of bitcoin.

Fraud an intentional deception made for personal gain or to damage another individual.

I don't see this as necessarily being fraud.

There may be laws broken if someone actually were to provide the service being requested here, but I don't think fraud would be among the charges.

That being said, providing this service would not be a smart thing to do.  If someone else has possession of a card in your name and makes charges with it, you could be liable up to $50.  Thus accepting $55 worth of bitcoins, and taking on a potential liability of $50 alone makes this a bad deal.
 - http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/edu/pubs/consumer/credit/cre04.shtm

You'll probably see varying opinions on this.

There are a few ways that it could be done properly with different tax consequences.   You mostly need to be consistent -- like for determining the cost basis you might use the monthly closing price each month (rather than picking whichever numbers provide you the results you are looking to obtain).  


I doubt most miners keep accurate records on this.  It could be simple if the miner kept a separate wallet for mining payouts and the only trading was converting those funds to USDs in a separate exchange account.    Then you simply use the trading records as revenue at whatever the trades show and at the end of the year whatever is left in the wallet is recognized as revenue use the spot price at that time.

Here's a related article on the Bitcoin wiki:
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Tax_compliance

Do you have PayPal?  

You should be able to find someone on the #bitcoin-otc marketplace that will buy your bitcoin from you at the current market value and pay with PayPal (or other form of electronic payment).

The BItcoin-otc marketplace has a Web of Trust (WoT) with trust history, so you can lessen the chance of entering a trade and not getting paid (or seeing a chargeback later).

 - http://webchat.freenode.net/?channels=#bitcoin-otc-foyer
 - http://bitcoin-otc.com/
 - http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratings.php

For amounts larger than 1 BTC, then you might find it worth your while to go through the verification step with an exchange and use bank transfers.  For example:
 - http://bitnz.com/orders

Last month Bitcoin miners received a little over 200K BTC, or about 2% of all bitcoins that have been issued.   Next month Bitcoin miners will receive just 100K BTC, or less than 1% of all bitcoins that have been issued.  

This alone will cause many miners to power down their GPU hardware and quit mining.    This should not be a surprise to anyone.  

Here's from March of this year:

Bring Out Your Dead (GPUs)
 - http://bitcoinminer.com/post/20028732430



But Bitcoin doesn't exist for the benefit of miners.  Bitcoin exists because there was the need for a type of money that will not be devalued by political influences and a type of money that has no prejudice as far as how it is used.

It doesn't matter a hill of beans to Bitcoin gaining traction if those who are mining are making any money from it.   It only matters that there be sufficient mining capacity to ensure the blockchain is protected, and it is currently (and will continue to be) protected at a level that is way more than currently necessary.


When you stated "we are heading for another several bad months like the end of last year", I assumed you were referring to the exchange rate.  If you weren't referring to the exchange rate then I'm confused as that has a huge role in determining a miner's profit.

Wow, awesome!

This is evidence of the "supply chain" starting to fill out.

All merchants themselves have bills to pay and when those merchants that accept Bitcoin payments can in-turn pay their own bills using bitcoins then they can hold onto them instead of always cashing the bitcoin revenues out to fiat.  

I think of this each time I have to cash out some of my bitcoins to pay a recurring monthly bill.  I lose a little in exchange fees when I cash out and because I am paying the bill with a credit card I know that the merchant is taking a hit on the merchant fees as well.   When that merchant has more options for paying its bills using bitcoins it will be more likely to start accepting bitcoins for payment as well.  

Each additional merchant in the supply chain that accepts bitcoins adds a link that extends the length of the virtuous cycle.

If bitcoins were only used for commerce, and were sold as soon as each transaction confirmed there would only be a small valuation of all the coins combined (e..g, well under one dollar USD).

So the entirety of value above that is speculation that in the future the amount of commerce including bitcoins will be much higher than it is today.  While some are today thinking $11.75 is a good spot to unload, others are thinking the exchange rate goes higher.

So a rising exchange rate is only a good indicator of future expectations, not necessarily a good indicator of growth in current demand.

This is a chart that is a pretty good indicator in the growth of current demand:
 - http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?daysAverageString=7&scale=1

And the WordPress announcement has emboldened speculators in increasing their future expectations.

But there's no way to know if there's further upside, or if Bitcoin's traction will increase enough to justify current expectations.

It's purely speculation.

So a gaming rig mining with that price of electricity might give you a few (tens) of dollars profit per month (after the halving occurs).  But as soon as ASICs ship (as soon as next month), even $0.06 per kWh won't be good enough.

Even that advice might not be good.   After the halving, the break-even on electricity is likely going to be under $0.10 per kWh.  So unless you pay under $0.07 per kWh, even with "free" hardware (as you bought it for gaming), you either won't make any money or will lose on each and every bticoin you get.



There are (and will continue to be ) a lot of really nice used GPUs on the market.  You'll be able to get a high end gaming machine for much less.

Or someone could sell Humble Bundle giftcodes for bitcoins:

- www.humblebundle.com


And then that seller can share with HB the volume of giftcodes which where paid for in bitcoins and show that even in this roundabout way there are bitcoins that want to buy Humble bundles.

Let's see if things change now after WordPress is onboard.   It really makes taking the EFF's stance look foolish now.

I've updated the IRC Channels article on the Bitcoin wiki:
 - https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/IRC_channels#Local_communities


And that one too.

I've had similar positive experiences with BitMe.


Actually, the sellers are sitting now at about the same or below the BTC/USD exchange rate at Mt. Gox.  So it is closer to being a buyer's market as you can put in a bid several percent below the Mt. Gox rate and you still might get the bid filled from an aggressive seller.   It is often cheaper to buy bitcoins through BitMe than anywhere else, especially when you obtain the benefit of a liquidity rebate,

Though once you start talking more than a few hundred dollars worth of trading then you start to run into liquidity issues and "slippage".
 - http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitmeUSD_depth.html

If they had two-factor authentication (OTP / Google Authenticator or Yubikey) I believe more traders would be adding liquidity.

Rule of thumb.  If you are going to use a payment method (like Pingit) that intersects with the banking system, you will need to provide ID  when asked.  If you don't want this scenario to happen, don't use those payment methods.  Use cash or a cash substitute.

UKash can be purchased at retail locations and used at VirWoX to buy SLLs (which can then be traded for BTCs).
 - http://www.VirWoX.com

Or use a local trader:
 - http://www.LocalBitcoins.com
  or
 - http://www.Bitcoin-otc.com

Or if you want true anonymity send cash in the mail.  You can send cash (GBP) to Bitcoin Nordic (in Denmark):
 - http://www.BitcoinNordic.com

There is Google Authenticator OTP available as a security option now.

It is only used for login though, so there still is the need for another OTP challenge during withdrawal:

A plea to exchanges ... lets do 2 factor right!
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=109424.0

If someone is to pay you 100K BTC, it doesn't matter what the exchange rate is, you get 100K either way.   Did you mean manipulate down the exchange rate and then lock in the BTC price of a USD-based trade (at the lower exchange rate, thus a higher quantity)?



I just saw that in two places.  One here:


And that's just for a 1 gram silver coin.

I edited my post, I was trying to make the point how there could be exposure to the site when there is forced margin selling (and thus not a "closed circuit" as it was claimed", and that argument was easier made from a simple example of just two participants.)



"shitload" is relative.  I don't know the actual trading volume but it appears a single participant with just a 100 or so BTC balance using 1:10 leverage could have been responsible for most of -- if not all of, the bizarre trading.

2012-11-16 CalvinAyre.com - Dealer’s Choice: Brother, Can You Spare A Bitcoin?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=125640.0