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The life of BTC is until EC encryption is cracked which I expect in 20 years or so, unless we can manage to upgrade the wallets to a new encrpytion algorithm and get all users to move their funds to the new wallets prior to the crack. That would be the real show stopper. In terms of market value decreases, the biggest risks would be government bans and especially competing cryptos such as Ethereum. However, Bitcoin would still exist.
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It's pretty obvious that the current ether rise is due entirely to the DAO. Having 15% of a coin bought out (not traded) in a matter of weeks puts quite an unusual strain on the market. I wouldn't be suprised if the DAO launch was timed entirely to try to paint a triangle on the charts. However, once the DAO sale is over, I expect ETH to come crashing back down and it might look more like a double top. You can see this due to the near matching high volume of the two peaks (as counterintuitive as that might sound). My question is what will happen to the value of a DAO token?
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It actually looks much more like 2012, which is also much more bullish. You could be doing such a better job at this. Is it because your chart doesn't go back that far?
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Wow that looks like a really good chart right? Looks like the price has been 'breaking out' for over a month as it nudges closer and closer against resistance. Sentiments have been tremendously universally bullish for months as bitcoin makes headlines all over the news and the chart looks just like 2012 right before the 2012 halving. Every thread on the forum is positive and predicts the level of the next rise. Meanwhile, CHINA is still the market leader. What could go wrong, right? The BFX order book bids are paper thin and BFX longs are maxxed out at 32M. Each time this margin level was reached in the past was when bulls were buying in to what looked like a big breakout (such as in July 2014) but inflected into the next decline instead. I'd say there is a distinctive chance of another decline to the 300s before any meaningful rise. I'm not betting anything on that though.
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Guys the trading isn't going so well anymore. I'm quitting again, probably permanently this time. I can't predict crap anymore, I can't tell what the hell is going on with these Chinese exchanges which I thought should have been irrelevant by now, the fees are too high, the liquidity is too low, I can't use stops properly, and I can't even trust the exchanges. Also I can't even post in this forum without eliciting negative responses everyone when I'm only trying to contribute.
Also just like when I traded bitcoin years ago it's giving me terrible anxiety, sleep deprivation, health effects, and reducing my job performance. So I'm cutting my losses early this time.
I'm dividing my remaining coins up 30% fiat and 70% btc and withdrawing again, because I spent all the fiat from last time so I'm too heavily weighted in bitcoin. This way, I can have peace of mind in order to do another full btc information blackout.
See you guys again when I check the price again in 6 months or a year or so. In the meantime if you want to see me, you can find me at a 2/5 or 5/10 holdem table where at least I can have fun while I'm gambling.
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There's such a strange relationship between Chinese price moves and Bitfinex price moves. They will move in sync in one direction but not another or at one time but not another. The best way I can describe it is 'against whatever my trade is'.
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Oh look big name businessy guys in suits and ties said stuff so you ought to listen. Our decentralized system has authority figures now. Included in this list of auhtorities is Bobby Lee, the owner of the dubious Chinese exchange that pumped and crashed bitcoin in 2013, and he said something to try to pump the price every month in 2014.
That ''dubious Chinese exchange'' is responsible for youre $1500 profit.... ore do i need to ask; pics ore it didn't happen? You're ungrateful ore just a major liar! I don't get what you are saying. I need to be grateful to Bobby Lee because somehow BTCChina is responsible for me making a profitable daytrade on a different exchange? What would that even have to do my comment? Should we all be grateful to Bobby Lee for causing market volatility? Even if that were true, what does this have to do with the success of Bitcoin, and how does it make Bobby Lee a credible source? |
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I just want to point out that that the beginning of this move was set off by a 2K coin bid wall on OKcoin. So this still is some hope left for wall observation if you look closely.
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The Robin hood tax is 0.1% in what I read, not 0.01%. I actually read something whare a stock trade could be up to 0.5%
http://robinhoodtax.org.uk/ (movie on below) 0,05 % I'm referring to the one by Bernie Sanders in the US |
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Shorted
good luck with that short. You know I find it a bit curious that some posters will assert that they took some BTC position without really providing too many specifics. Shorted could mean a whole hell-a-va lot depending on the totality of a person's holdings (whether BTC or other holdings), and I recall that in the past, you Tera, have disclosed that from time to time you have been utilizing leveraged trading (or is it called "margin" trading) on Bitfinex. In any event, no matter where or how you employ such shorting, there are a lot of ways to carry out "shorting." Personally, I do get a sense that we could experience some short-term downward price momentum because of relatively low trade volume in the past several days... like as if we may be being set up for a downward push in prices, but on the other hand there could be a set up for an upward push in BTC prices. In my current thinking, even as there seems to be a little bit of an upward push to $444, is that in the short term - a 60% chance that we be going down from here and 40% that we be going up from here. In other words, I am approximating the proportions of my betting according to my view of probabilities (not just one or another because it is not that clear to me, at the moment). Just means I'm in a short term downwards trade and am utilizing leverage in order to keep less coins on the exchange. Not truly short. Also it helps me to visualize exactly how much I'm 'down' right now versus if I didn't trade, so I'm not thinking in terms of how much fiat I have and I'm more likely to cut my losses appropriately. |
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If Robinhood tax passes, it'll result in less tax revenue and btc will go sub 200 because it's mostly held up by traders riding the choo choo train, plus the rest of the economy would be dropping around it.
Robinhood tax : 0,01% Exchange (Fiat to BTC, 1 way) tax : 0,23% Bitcoin tax : free Robinhood tax solve nothing ... because gov. have no law to follow the rabbit (of financial bankster system). That's why gov. focus on Bitcoin. And they will fail hard for doing this ...  Like they fail VERY hard with all P2P services. The Robin hood tax is 0.1% in what I read, not 0.01%. I actually read something whare a stock trade could be up to 0.5% |
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The next 18 minutes are critical
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Say what you want about the morality of traders. If Robinhood tax passes, it'll result in less tax revenue and btc will go sub 200 because it's mostly held up by traders riding the choo choo train, plus the rest of the economy would be dropping around it. I really don't think it would get through congress though.
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If you want to have an ethical argument about how trading is immoral and should be abolished, that is another matter is probably your strongest approach.
As for the economic impact, it will be negative. I have read reports. The tax envisioned to generate additional tax revenue will actually result in a net decrease in tax revenue due to other sources being cut off.
You missed what I said about securities based borrowing. You can invest and trade at the same time by using the investment as lending collateral for the trading. You still have a long term investment, which goes untouched (unless you have losses)
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TRUMP 2016!
CAN'T STUMP THE TRUMP!
Trump will make Bitcoin mining in the USA profitable again!
Why should the chinks get all the profits from mining anyway?
Trump will deport all bears and shorters to Mexico!
TRUMP 2016!
Meanwhile, in actual news, Bernie Sanders wants to impose a 0.1% - 0.5% financial transaction tax on trading, PER TRADE (like your broker commission )... Which would actually be a good thing, leading people to stop trading and only invest in product/companies they believe have a potential. And yes I trade. But it's not because I do something that I can't understand that it's not exactly a good practice. Whether you like trading or not, the livelihood hundreds of thousands of traders from all social classes would be ruined, billion dollars companies would collapse, a trillion dollar market would be gone, and it might even lead to the collapse of the whole economy. In any case, the economic impact will be such that the amount of tax revenue generated is actually REDUCED rather than increased once factoring in the side effects. Also, investing and trading are not mutually exclusive. Look into "Security based borrowing". You can actually use certain large cap assets as margin collateral to do your trading. I actually do this with Bitcoin, using bitcoins. If Bernie is elected and this tax passes (which probably wont even if he is elected), expect btc to have a major drop in price as an exodus of U.S. traders occur, and some of the major exchanges (supported by traders) close down or gox everyone. |
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I agree that it's probably going up next year. I just don't understand why these people's opinions are so important, especially not Bobby Lee.
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Oh look big name businessy guys in suits and ties said stuff so you ought to listen. Our decentralized system has authority figures now. Included in this list of auhtorities is Bobby Lee, the owner of the dubious Chinese exchange that pumped and crashed bitcoin in 2013, and he said something to try to pump the price every month in 2014.
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Do we really need a 10 page news article to tell us what we've known for 6 years about halving?
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