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4481  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [BREAKING NEWS] Poland blocks illegal fiat gambling sites. on: July 07, 2017, 07:02:41 PM
FanDuel, DraftKings and similar fantasy sports websites are illegal in some US states. There has also been a push in the US to crackdown on poker and sports betting online. I think most of that comes from Las Vegas casinos who desire a monopoly over the gambling/sports betting industry flexing their political influence to get it.

Europe, asia and the rest of the world tend to be more permissive.

Not certain on the motivation behind Poland blocking fiat sites. It could be a de-dollarization strategy. Preventive measures to protect their economy against a potential fiat crash.
4482  Economy / Economics / Re: Loans too risky? on: July 07, 2017, 06:48:53 PM
What makes loans difficult is, there are lots of websites that sell fake ID's. Verifying the identity of a person can be hard.

Collateral is also difficult to come by. I think banks have a system of background and credit checks they use to authenticate loans. There's no equivalent for crypto which makes things tough.
4483  Economy / Exchanges / Re: I want to invest $200K to set up an exchange and I need your help on: July 07, 2017, 12:06:11 AM
3. What are the things you think are missing in the current exchanges? At least from your personal view

These exchanges should become more proffessional. For example poloniex has troubles now and you cant reach their support. My etc deposit still not showed up on balance since 3 weeks. Even they are earm and gsin so much öoney from fees, they dont invest to themselves to operate better.

There is one key thing that should be mentioned on the bolded portion above.

I can't speak for poloniex but it is possible those troubles he cited above stem from the exchange being based in the united states and thus being subject to US regulations and laws.

AFAIK many US based exchanges and crypto operations, like coinbase for example, have similar issues with transactions and basic functions due to the IRS and state making a stronger effort to invest themselves into crypto based operations.

That's not a fault of poloniex its the "regulation" taking effect. The same type of transaction freeze happens with paypal and other payment processors to satisfy the "anti terrorism" countermeasures.

Some countries are definitely more crypto friendly than others in terms of regulation/laws.

Upcoming "senate Bill 1241" which some are labeling an "anti bitcoin" piece of legislature is an interesting topic related to this.

Also thx for the tip. If you ever get the impression I might be able to help you with anything, feel free to ask.
4484  Economy / Economics / Wall Street's Migration To Crypto Continues: Former Bain Manager Opens LatAm Bit on: July 06, 2017, 10:02:24 PM
Quote
It appears a trend is taking shape. Following a former Goldman HFT trader's massive initial coin offering, another Wall Street-er has come to the dark side of virtual currencies. A former senior manager at consulting firm Bain & Company, is launching a Bitcoin fund, providing access to the cryptocurrency to some of the wealthiest families in Latin America.

Announced today, the newly formed Crypto Assets Fund, co-founded by former senior manager at Bain, Roberto Ponce Romay, is helping to raise $50m with the purpose of buying cryptocurrencies for family offices. Revealed exclusively to CoinDesk, Crypto Assets Fund (CAF) will invest directly in bitcoin, ether, zcash, ripple, litecoin and dash. As CoinDesk reports,

Quote
The first tranche of the fund, estimated to be valued about $10m, is in the final stages of closing, and is expected to be announced by the end of this month.
 
In interview, Romay explained that the purpose of the fund was two-fold.
  • First, it was designed to give investors in some of Latin America’s more unstable economies a new way to hedge their investments, and...
  • Second, it was meant to provide the opportunity to safely learn about these new stores of value for possible future investments.
According to Romay, as the fund's investors are becoming increasingly familiar with the crypto-asset class, the CAF could eventually raise new funds that also include tokens sold as part of initial coin offerings, or ICOs.
[/list]

Quote
"This fund is investor driven," said Romay, who is now the director of investment banking boutique, Invermaster. "It is a simple strategy to give access."
 
"The [investors] wanted to be exposed..."

Investment documents provided to CoinDesk further reveal details about how the British Virgin Islands fund intends to invest capital provided by its limited partners.



Based on previous growth trajectories of CAF’s crypto-assets, the fund lists a minimum target return of 26% per year for three years with an "expected" target return of 71%.

With volatility at record lows across so many asset-classes, is this the beginning of an exodus from Wall Street to Cyber street to take advantage of information-edges and noise?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-06/wall-streets-migration-crypto-continues-former-bain-manager-opens-latam-bitcoin-fund

Wow. Looks like a lot of people are getting into crypto. Big investment by whales could mean senate bill 1241 won't be passed?

What do people think on this?

The article also mentions:  "Following a former Goldman HFT trader's massive initial coin offering".

Not certain what that's about, I think I missed that article.
4485  Other / Archival / Re: Which one is more risky? Skill-based gambling or trading? on: July 06, 2017, 09:44:12 PM
I'll go out on a limb and say: skill based gambling is more risky as its much easier to lose a substantial percentage of ones bank roll.

In trading if the value of a traded commodity decreases it might only result in the loss of a few percentage points.

With gambling its very easy to lose 50% to 100% of everything.
4486  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UFC 213: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 Info and Prediction Thread on: July 06, 2017, 09:31:03 PM
For those who enjoy viewing MMA media for events, open workouts for UFC 213 and TUF 25 are posted on youtube.

UFC 213 Open Workouts
Amanda Nunes  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NiTl_GRA8AI
Valentina Shevchenko  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtQW_5QKddM
Yoel Romero  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd1n-jWUitQ
Robert Whittaker  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhqST5F8KmM

TUF 25 Open Workouts
Michael Johnson  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBta5msjl_s
Justin Gaethje  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJoKyXwuSNs

I like watching the open workouts. Its interesting to see what some of their routines are, what combos they use when hitting pads, what subs they work on the ground, what their punching/kicking technique looks like and assorted details which usually don't factor into a fight much but could show some of what they work on in training.
4487  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Outcome of Horn vs. Pacquiao on: July 06, 2017, 09:24:57 PM
I still need to watch this fight. Its hard to enjoy boxing after having been spoiled by MMA.

People say Anthony Joshua versus Wladimir Klitschko was a great fight.

But for some strange reason I get a feeling that a lot of MMA heavyweights could stand with those guys and do ok.
4488  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Would you login to a gambling site with Twitter, Google or Facebook Id? on: July 06, 2017, 09:22:19 PM
I wouldn't mind logging into a gambling site if it were based in USD.

If it were a crypto based gambling site, I probably wouldn't use a social media login. Not with Senate Bill 1241 proposed which could grant the US government the power to seize crypto without just cause or checks/balances.
4489  Economy / Exchanges / Re: I want to invest $200K to set up an exchange and I need your help on: July 06, 2017, 08:59:31 PM
1. Why are people using poloniex? Are most of them traders or miners or margin traders or they invest in new alt coins or …. something else I am missing? It is possible to trade a wide assortment of crypto on poloniex. Some exchanges like btc-e are very limited and only offer trading for a very small number of alts. Poloniex having so many trading options for many different coins is probably one of the main advantages it has over other exchanges.

2. If you are using any exchange please tell me which one and why are using it? You are a miner, trader or …. ? I have a btc-e account but haven't used it in years. I used to try to come up with arbitrage trade strategies but nothing I ever came up with could ever compete buying and holding long term. So I gave up on it. Arb could be me a better strategy now years later that volatility is higher than around 1% per day (price movement) I haven't checked.

3. What are the things you think are missing in the current exchanges? At least from your personal view In past times many exchanges had no option for short trading. That could be one drawback although to be honest I can't claim to have looked into whether short trading would be profitable for exchanges and an option they would benefit from having. Leverage could also be a drawback although to be honest given the lack of escrow, collateral, etc its not difficult to see how leverage would be difficult to implement on a crypto platform.

4. Do you think we can use our budget($200K monthly) better than creating an exchange? That's a really tough question. Most say its good to play to your strengths, I'm not certain what your strengths/background are.

5. Is there still good money to be made in mining? Anyone with knowledge looking for some investor?  I don't think there is money in mining unless a person has access to free electricity. Even then it may not be a good business strategy due to ASICs and GPUs being much more difficult to find & obtain. If only as it can be difficult to find people selling GPUs/ASICs these days.

6. I was thinking about trading my money from Btc-e to Cex.io as the difference of the BTC is around 4% (as of now the prices are 2533 USD (btc-e) and 2662 (CEX.io). I think it is an easy money with every trade as I should earn extra 2%. Am I missing something? To easy to be true. In addition to the trade commission percentage there is a withdrawal percentage. I think some exchanges charge a 5% withdrawal fee which makes inter-exchange arbitrage difficult across platforms.

Anyone want to help us?

One key point could be which country an exchange operates out of & how crypto friendly its laws and regulations are. That could help determine whether an exchange is viable.

1G15u8zAxkGMR6KKXLFoRkBh37W2gsTWTD
4490  Economy / Economics / Re: China Moves Closer to Issuing Blockchain-based Currency on: July 05, 2017, 09:01:07 PM
If crypto is similar to what horseless chariots(cars) were to horse driven buggys.

I wonder if china, russia and other nations which adopt crypto early on will have an advantage over countries like the united states which oppose change rather than embracing it.

Might be interesting to see people weigh in on that topic.
4491  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Marketing - Ideas to promote bitcoin on: July 05, 2017, 08:38:58 PM
Promoting crypto is a marketing discussion.

Think of the best tv commercials or advertisements you've seen.

Whatever the bitcoin equivalents of those are could represent an ideal standard.

4492  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Our prediction-markets on: July 05, 2017, 08:31:19 PM
Predictions/projections are difficult to quantify.

Statistically, many predictors are less accurate than weatherman on the 10 o'clock news.

The intrinsic nature of markets and future projections is high risk and high yields go hand in hand.

The more someone hopes to gain, the bigger and less quantifiable risks they'll typically engage in.
4493  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Scaling issues on: July 05, 2017, 08:15:33 PM
Anyone want to help me understand the scaling issues with BTC and eth? All this hard fork talk has me confused.

The cryptographic functions that make bitcoin and other crypto currencies secure also make them slow via adding additional overhead computation on top of basic functions.

Its similar to how WIFI encryption makes a person's internet run slower. The encryption/decryption abstractions consume enough hardware/software for a noticeable increase in time to be necessary.

"Scaling issue" is probably an inaccurate term to describe it.

The hard fork discussion is extremely political with a lot of agendas and misinformation present.
4494  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Mayweather Vs McGregor: Info and prediction thread on: July 05, 2017, 07:15:54 PM
A lot of people thought Daniel Cormier would out-wrestle Jon Jones due to Cormier being an olympic level wrestler. The same thing happened when Demetrious Johnson fought olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo. A lot of people thought the olympic wrestler would be able to out-wrestle Demetrious Johnson.

I'm not saying Conor McGregor will definitely win. But I do wonder if MMA fighters can not be outwrestled and dominated by olympic wrestlers if it means Conor won't be dominated and outstruck by a good boxer.
4495  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UFC 213: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 Info and Prediction Thread on: July 05, 2017, 07:12:37 PM
There is also a UFC card one day before UFC 213 on july 7th, for the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter Redemption:

Michael Johnson   vs.   Justin Gaethje            
Dhiego Lima   vs.   TBD            
Marc Diakiese   vs.   Drakkar Klose            
Jared Cannonier   vs.   Nick Roehrick            
Brad Tavares   vs.   Elias Theodorou            
Jordan Johnson   vs.   Marcel Fortuna      

      
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Angela Hill   vs.   Ashley Yoder            
Ed Herman   vs.   C.B. Dollaway            
Jessica Eye   vs.   Aspen Ladd   
   
      
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Gray Maynard   vs.   Teruto Ishihara            
Tecia Torres   vs.   Juliana Lima


Two days of back to back UFC on friday and saturday.

Could be a good week ahead of us.

 Smiley
4496  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Can cryptocurrency make real money disappear? on: July 04, 2017, 06:24:50 PM
I think real money would likely make crypto disappear 1st.

The reasoning behind this is, crypto may be more likely to be hoarded than fiat which could lead to crypto disappearing as its hoarded in greater quantities, while fiat is freely traded.
4497  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession fears as bankers warn next global crash could arrive with a vengeance on: July 04, 2017, 06:21:24 PM
What's this about Einstein's relativity thing?  Don't know what you mean by that.

Wealth certainly can be destroyed, and it happens all the time.  This is not physical matter or particles or whatever.  There is no conservation of wealth.  lol
Look at any stock market crash and you'll see wealth destroyed in the blink of an eye.

There is something known as "thermoeconomics" that is interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermoeconomics

Some monetary and financial policy could be comparable to conditions present in the transference of energy.

Some metals are good conductors and allow electricity to be transmitted easily and efficiently.

Other metals are bad conductors.

States and governments which are usually inefficient with money could be comparable to an attempt to conduct electricity through something that is a bad conductor.
4498  Economy / Economics / Re: How can we make more money? on: July 04, 2017, 06:11:33 PM
I still think the best way to earn money and build a business is by fulfilling basic essential human needs.

Or by selling things people don't need but for some reason think they need to have.

Maybe that is where the focus should be.
4499  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Mayweather Vs McGregor: Info and prediction thread on: July 04, 2017, 06:04:42 PM
One factor that could play into the fight is Vegas judges & compustat showing favortism towards Floyd Mayweather in the past.

Oscar De La Hoya beat Mayweather when they fought and the judges gave the fight to Mayweather anyway.

Compustat also showed favortism towards Mayweather when he fought Pacquiao by not giving Pacman credit for a lot of punches he landed to the body.

4500  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin heading to $4,000 on: July 04, 2017, 05:16:05 PM
Goldman Sachs analyst is projecting btc could reach $3,915 in the next breakout(see: bolded).

Quote
So fast forward to Sunday evening Goldman's chief technician, Sheba Jafari, issued only his second forecast of where bitcoin is headed next which may accelerate Novogratz' crypto price target.

Recall, that as we first reported three weeks ago, Jafari said that "due to popular demand, it’s worth taking a quick look at Bitcoin here" and warned that "the market has come close (enough?) to reaching its extended (2.618) target for a 3rd of V-waves from the inception low at 3,134." She concluded that she was "wary of a near-term top ahead of 3,134" and urged clients to "consider re-establishing bullish exposure between 2,330 and no lower than 1,915."

She was right: on the very day his note came out, both bitcoin and ethereum hit their all time highs and shortly after suffered their biggest drop in over two years.

So what does Jafari thinks will happen next? According to the Goldman technician, Bitcoin is now "in wave IV of a sequence that started at the late-’10/early-’11 lows. Wave III came close enough to reaching its 2.618 extended target at 3,135. Wave IV has already retraced between 23.6% and 38.2% of the move since Jan. ‘15 to 2,330/ 1,915."

What does this mean for the uninitiated? In short, while bitcoin remains in Wave IV, it could go up... or down. She explains:

Quote
It’s worth keeping in mind that fourth waves tend to be messy/complex. This means that it could remain sideways/overlapping for a little while longer. At this point, it’s important to look for either an ABC pattern or a more triangular ABCDE. The former would target somewhere close to 1,856; providing a much cleaner setup from which to consider getting back into the uptrend. The latter would hold within a 2,076/3,000 range for an extended period of time.

However, at that point the next major breakout higher would take place, one which would take bitcoin as high as $3,915.

Quote
Either way, eventually expecting one more leg higher; a 5th wave. From current levels, [Bitcoin] has a minimum target that goes out to 3,212 (if equal to the length of wave I). There’s potential to extend as far as 3,915 (if 1.618 times the length of wave I). It just might take time to get there.

Goldman's analyst concludes with the following summary: "[Bitcoin] could consolidate sideways for a while longer. Shouldn’t go much further than 1,857. Eventually targeting at least 3,212."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-03/goldman-sees-bitcoin-soaring-high-3915

Interesting analysis. I don't pay enough attention to btc or crypto to have much of an opinion.

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