I might accept a friendly bet today. What are the terms?

Interesting. Do you think you could line up some of those points A, B, W, X with dates? The 12 June hack and sell off certainly messed up the trend

""Why are there lengths notated and how do they come into play?""

They don't. I was asked about Fibonacci ratios and I used the lines to demonstrate my inability to find any.

Frankly, I am more than a little skeptical of Fibonacci. One feature of the Fibonacci (or Golden) ratio (by definition) is that y/x = 1 + x/y. Which essentially says that 162% is the same as 62% and 81% is the same (inverse) of 124% and one is nearly guaranteed to hit some ratio derived from a Fibonacci ratio. Having said that, third and fifth waves do vaguely tend to extend 2/3 and 3/2 (give or take a huge error).

Glad my work has some purpose, even if you just use it for contrarian confirmation. I've posted my rambling nonalysis yesterday https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49462.msg603999#msg603999 . I will be the first to admit, I have no idea what is happening in this correction. But I am confident that it is indeed a correction of the general downward trend. There may very well be a big burst up to $3.5-ish, but I only welcome that price with shorts. Only a major up trend, such as to $5 would make bullish again.

You're a god damn rock star!

If the first sentence happened ("well above $5"), it would be truly amazing. Awesome. Spectacular. And I would be happy to have been wrong.

I've called the wave between 19-29 October, the fourth wave, of the 'b' wave since August, of the II wave since June. If I were to admit a wrong (in light of a superior) count then my a,b,c would need to be a 1,2,3 (as pent drew), which would no longer be a correction, but an impulse, no longer part of the June II wave, but a new III wave. In this particular critical case, I would have been wrong on all scales. My II.b.4.c would all of a sudden become a III.i.1.3.

It is possible, but what else can I say, I believe the alternative (1,2,3) count sucks. Only a "very unlikely massively optimistic impressive third wave extension" would invalidate my general count since August. How many adjectives do I need to demonstrate my confidence (or lack thereof) in a particular count?

Vandroiy makes the most important point. Rather than a simple BUY, SELL, HOLD, if analysis can tell you what is likely to happen, including what conditions invalidate that assertion, then its highly valuable. I've stated that if the 'fourth' wave crossed under $3.3 then it was invalid eight days before it happened, ten days before pent's graph was drawn. If you believed the 1,2,3 count, then you could have placed a stop at $3.3 (I, with a corrective count, sold at $3.8 with stops as $4.2). There is no impulse short of a "very unlikely massively optimistic impressive third wave extension" well beyond $5 that would convince me that bitcoin is already in major wave III. If that were to occur, then as I wrote (in the same thread you were busy spamming):

BTCurious, are you illiterate?

Just above in the same thread, I wrote "I suspect 3:iv could be appropriately close to $4. Likewise, wave c:5 could end anywhere, though our March wave 'IV' puts it in the $0.6-1.1 range." and linked to an explanation of the invalid fourth wave:

I believe S3052 meant:

BTCurious, would you mind showing an example, where I've shown 'up and down interpretations' along with the accompanying text?

As I recall, here and in other threads, I've only shown alternative wave interpretations to illustrate why the alternative is either invalid or highly unlikely. Similarly, S3052 has provided targets and stops with his various analysis on all scales. It's not random, but does require a bit of brain power and the ability to read a few sentences.

We are in a fourth wave correction since Monday (II.5.1.iv red), and no matter the outcome of these bounces, I expect bitcoin price will drop below $3.

So what kinda of correction are we experiencing this week? A rare inverted widening triangle stretched out over many more hours, days or a common flat correction? If 'd' confirms this as the fabled fourth wave inverted widening triangle then 'd' along with 'b' defines the base line (the base line I've drawn is only suggestive). We'd expect 'd' to drop much lower than 'b' so that 'a-c' and 'd-b' are symmetrically divergent. The price of 'e' is not predictive and may even extend beyond 'a-c'. The thrust is measured as the perpendicular between the ends of lines 'a-c' and 'b-d' through 'e'. The fifth wave should be at least the thrust distance down from 'e'. Unless extended, I do not believe this is flat, because wave c's three waves do not look impulsive. A flat is 3-3-5-DOWN or extension. An widening triangle is 3-3-3-3-3-DOWN or extended. My guess is either this formation continues bouncing above $3.06 many times more, or we drop down to $3 or below, bounce up for 'e' and drop phenomenally thereafter. As of 18 UTC, it's ambiguous, but I expect a drop or bounce confirmation before I ski off the grid tonight. No matter how it bounces, bitcoins are dropping below $3.

I'm lost on the lingo. ramp=rally in what?

The last guy that took a real stab at a unified currency got thrown in jail on invalidated rape charges and lost the French election. Others usually just part with sovereignty or life.

It's only elaborate numerology after all.

Every set of Elliott waves is itself an Elliott wave. Looking only at one scale, you can't discern a five wave impulse from a three wave correction when you're only in the third wave, unless you've decided what type of bigger wave you're already in, based on many earlier waves. Of course you could be totally wrong or totally lucky either way.

So, right now you have a theory, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 is next. See what happens. If it goes up above 3, you were probably right. Then you can guess you've completed some bigger impulse. Which? I, III, or V? Either way, you should expect a correction after V. Big or small? Context.

I provided a converse to the 'proof' above. My personal opinion hasn't changed in weeks. We have just left II.C.4.c station, C.5 bound. Next stop, down.

This 'fourth wave' dipped far below the first wave peak of $3.3 (22 October, II.C.4.a). So, this little dip since $3.8 within the third wave needs to see a massive extension before we can label its peak. The fourth wave hasn't begun to materialize and I doubt it ever will. Pent's chart was invalidated 30 hours before he created it.

Elliott Rule 3) Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle.

Not at all. You need to put your potential impulse wave in greater context. You could just as easily label 1=IV.a, 2=IV.b, 3=IV.c, 4=V.1.

Not entirely on topic, much like the last few pages, but I would like to hear a ranting reply. The bitcoin adventure has tested and forced me to reconsider many 'truths' I previously held.

Is it possible that a managed economy, when properly administered, perhaps automatically as M. Friedman suggested based on CPI targets, could help stabilize prices and growth? One of Keynes' tenets was that during a recession, the economy will contract in a feedback loop (people do not spend because they fear further contraction and that fear creates more cause to fear). Only a central 'spender of last resort' could revitalize or neutralize deflation, perhaps not to re-inflate the economy, but to prevent an undershoot. The monetary temptation has always been abused, but could a central authority in theory smooth out the economy?

Daily expected volatility is more than 10% and Bitcoinica has .1 spread on buy and about the same after a stop is triggered. Given these norms, then it is irrational to use a trailing stop unless one expects a gain of at least $0.5 just to break even.

If a trailing stop is a set and ignored during a long trend, then it makes sense. One must believe the price will continue to trend and the stop will cross the limit while he's away. I can't imagine there are Bitcoinica users with active positions who ignores the daily price.

So, we didn't quite make $4, but $3.85 was pretty close and well within 3.iv (8-12 October). Notice that today 30 October, we've hit $3.2. On 23 October, 3.a peaked at $3.3. So, for all the rally bulls, either this little correction is gonna turn into an impressive third wave extension, or we've peaked at 4.c.v on our way down.



As I explained here and here, the green count (below) considers the unlikely case that the invalid fourth wave forms part of a massive upward impulsive third wave extension. The red count (below) is much more likely. I only considered the green count in response to 'what if?' questions.

D.A.R.E. taught that acid and mushrooms were bad because it'd expand our minds and we'd see and hear things that were not there. It wasn't science class, so none experimented.

I think Cypherdoc is right. Rarely can one predict (guess) the price movement as closely as I have the past two weeks, yet I haven't made any money using trailing stops. Granted, I was learning how to use stops during that time, but I can't imagine how one could make a penny with a $.1 spread on buy and again on sell and typical 10%+ motion in any given day.



I bought in very close to the bottom '3' and got bounced out several times with 0.2 trailing stops. Lesson learned. Bought in again at 'b', $2.6-$2.8 with multiple trailing stops .3, .5, .8 below. A few of my sells were executed at $3.8, and my trailing stops ate up the rest of my coins on the way down.



During wave '4' (from $2.05 to $3.8 ) the largest drop was almost $.9 during correction 'b'. Suppose one perfectly purchased at $2.1 with a $1.2 trailing stop before hibernating for the week, his stop would have triggered at $2.8 ($3.8 - 0.9 trailing stop - 0.1 spread). His perfectly executed gain was $0.7 with a loss potential of $1.0. If he perfectly predicted the top at $3.8 with no stops, his gain would have been ($3.8 - 0.1 - 2.1) $1.6 with a potential loss of $2.1. Roughly the same ratio.

It seems to be the same story on all time scales. The drops were half as large during waves 'a' or wave 'c', however the gains were also only half as large.

If one thinks the price will gain, shouldn't one just set the stop below the buy and check again in the morning? The price has dropped more than 10% ($.3) just about every day, and triple that a few times a week. Perhaps a trailing stop is great if the market is rallying toward a blow off.