4TH makes 77BTC each day now. When he paid 666.66BTC per 500GH then his 4TH are 5333.3BTC. A 2 month ROI now. After that he will make a plus of $231000 each month. Good that they had so low prices at the start.
When he paid (back in June 2012) the exchange rate was $6.5 per BTC. $30,000 was the price for the mini-rig at that time IIRC, so that was 4615 BTC per 1.5 TH/s. 4.5TH/s of BFL Mini-rigs was equivalent to 13,845 BTC back in June 2012. 4.5 TH/s earns 86.5010 BTC per day at this difficulty. If difficulty does not rise at all, it will take 160 days to earn back the BTC equivalent gigavps sunk into BFL. Even at my most conservative growth rate projections, the mini-rigs will not earn back the BTC equivalent they were purchased at. |
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tbh, my going plan is that i will use my K16 and jally miners to make at least a 50% ROI and then determine whether it will be more profitable to resell them or continue mining
You keep using the term ROI. I do not think it means what you think it means. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_investmentreturn on investment = (gain from investment - cost of investment) / cost of investment At the current exchange rate, you would need to mine 6.64 BTC to earn 50% ROI on the Jalapeno you just ordered. That is unlikely to happen given the amount of time it will take to deliver your Jalapeno. |
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I want to get an opinion with regards to my Jalapeno order, and here are some of the 'facts' in my head right now:
1) BFL is now shipping jalapenos, and seems to be focusing the most resources on them (i guess the least work to satisfy the most people)
2) BFL predicts that all jalapeno backlog will be erased by september
3) BFL has a track record of failure and lies with regards to status and shipping
4) If a 5GHash unit arrives by september, it could still pull ROI within 4-7 months (everyone has different calculations - im open to advice)
5) Paypal can be reversed/disputed up to 45 days from payment (or more in some circumstances), and BFL non-delivery is a valid reson to dispute based on paypal guidelines
so...
6) I placed a single order for a 5G jalapeno roughly 10 days ago. I did so because now seems like a relatively good time to balance the duration of the preorder and actually getting a unit soon(tm)
7) I anticipate it will arrive in time for me to reach break-even, or at least close enough that the hobby aspect makes it worthwhile
Cool I have eggs in a few baskets, including bitfury and K16 - each is a similar gamble (K16 is similar price and delivery timeframe)
9) I could theoretically get a refund through paypal up to the middle of august, when the delivery timeframe is more obvious
My question/concern is that BFL might take too long to deliver my jalapeno that the $300 invested on it returns <$250 in the first 6 months after electricity (I can accept a $50 loss in exchange for nifty looking hardware that may be capable of running small profits for another 3-6 months and/or effectively allow my to buy bitcoins via my electricity bill) I am watching actively now for any signals that i should either rest easy or hit the paypal 'dispute' button.
second question/clarification: what are the 7G version, just a ver.2 chip with better effeciency/heat, or a second parallel chip design? Is there any chance that un-upgraded orders ahead of me will clear out the BFL stock of 5G chips and everyone past a certain point will be given the 7G chips at less/no extra cost? (its a longshot, but a serious question based on thier quatities of each chip type and if they are still producing 5G chips at the factory)
BFL stopped shipping jalapenos to focus on bringing the single & mini-rig lines up to date. From: https://products.butterflylabs.com/65nm-asic-bitcoin-mining-chip.htmlA chip running all 16 engines @ 250MHz will produce 4GH/s. However, not all chips have all 16 engines working. Jalapeno's have 2 chips in them. If you get lucky you could get good chips and your Jalapeno will run faster (up to 8GH/s). |
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See if you can fail harder, Bruno, you lying piece of shit. You are truly one of the most worthless human beings I have ever met, you barely qualify as human. You are the most dishonest person on these forums and that's saying a lot. Not a single honest thing comes out of your posts, ever.
Why don't you sue him? |
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The following is not an opinion made by myself. I present it as fact.
BF Labs Inc. (Butterfly Labs) owned my Sonny Vleisides is nothing but a crock and should be avoided at all cost. Anybody who currently has a product on pre-order that's not expected to be shipped any time soon should ask for an immediate refund before they close down shop and the main principals leave the country.
Again, the above I present as fact and not as an opinion.
Anybody who believes that BFL now has the right to sue me, please sign this thread.
If in 10 days from this day I do not receive a letter from their lawyers informing me in no uncertain terms that they are suing my ass, then the above is definitely proven to be fact.
I will not judge a single person who signs this thread. The more signatures the better regardless of how you feel about me.
Thank you, in advance, for participating.
I doubt that BFL would sue you. If they did, you would get to do "discovery".  |
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Ya I emailed them about my dead PSU, and had to wait forever to hear back from them. It was over a week before Jody replied back, and when she did, it was less than helpful. Basically along the lines of "oh well". Quite odd as I've always had good luck with their customer service, once you factor out the wait time.
No warranty? IIRC they were offering lifetime warranties. |
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With KNC/Bitfury/Terrahash/ASICminer/etc + Avalon chips coming online very soon, and no way to recoup Batch 3 costs in 1 month as originally planned by Bitsyncom, do you think ROI is likely?
...I am thinking ROI seems impossible.
Well of course you'll earn *some* Return On your Investment unless you never plug the Avalon in, or you do nothing but solo-mine and never mine a block. Maybe you mean 100% ROI? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_investmentFrom that article: return on investment = (gain from investment - cost of investment) / cost of investment If the cost of the investment is larger than the gain from the investment, ROI is negative. 0% ROI is when you gain from the investment the same amount you spent on the investment. In this case, the cost of the investment is 80 BTC (IIRC). If the gain is only 70BTC, then the ROI will be (70 - 80)/80 which would be -12.5%. |
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http://www.ic3.gov/faq/default.aspxQ: Can I file a complaint if I am a citizen of the United States but have been victimized by an individual or company outside of the United States? If one of the two parties involved is located within the United States, please feel free to file a complaint. From http://www.ic3.gov/about/default.aspx The IC3 gives the victims of cyber crime a convenient and easy-to-use reporting mechanism that alerts authorities of suspected criminal or civil violations. For law enforcement and regulatory agencies at the federal, state, local, and international level, the IC3 provides a central referral mechanism for complaints involving Internet related crimes.It looks like if IC3 can't do anything about it, they would refer the complaint to an organization that would be able to. If you live in the US, they will probably go to bat for you. If only the accused party lives in the US, they would probably investigate on the assumption that a fraudulent operation inside the US would also target US citizens in addition to violating the law. |
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I did not recieve a mug.
ĦAy, caramba! NO MUG!  |
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You aren't going to make ROI in 2 months anymore. Those days are LOOOONG gone.
Looks like you're using even more conservative difficulty estimates than me.
My numbers come in at about 3-4 months using a 66 Gh/s avalon.
Not really too surprising. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
I had the 88 BTC (price of batch 3 IIRC) earned back in between 16 to 20 weeks for 66 GH/s if the unit arrived today. That is a decent return IMO. |
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Were you asked to post pictures by BFL?
It is good to see investors finally getting their product. Limits the damage somewhat by letting people recoup some of their investment. A pretty good return on their USD $1299 by the look of things. Should have it back in 14 days But a very lousy return on the 150+ BTC they forwent back in June of 2012 to acquire it. They should have that back in...probably never. |
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Were you asked to post pictures by BFL?
It is good to see investors finally getting their product. Limits the damage somewhat by letting people recoup some of their investment. |
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...
If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. One customer has already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days.
...
PayPal turned me down within minutes. The reason stated was "This dispute closed because it was opened for more than 45 days after the transaction date or did not meet other filing criteria."In light of your experience, your mileage may vary. It is important to try PayPal first because that is the easiest route to getting your money back. Your next step would be to fill out the form at the FTC noting that you ordered a product X number of days ago and that BFL has still not shipped it to you. When you asked for a refund, BFL refused. |
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$1400 for a Jala rofl. I hope you get lucky.  |
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In order for your prediction to be true:
You are predicting 4,238,893 GH/s in 12 months(592 Million Difficulty). Lets looks at what that means.
1) This says there will be ~ 70,000 units mining at an average of 60 GH/s in 12 months....
Or 14,000 units hashing at 300GH/s. Larger units than that for less money than a Batch 3 Avalon are on the horizon. It is not out of the realm to think that 1200 such units could ship per month over the entire Bitcoin ecosystem. 5,30 & 60 GH/s are first generation sized ASIC mining devices. Density will increase and cost will decrease. ~11,000 Jupitors from KNC could supply that much hashrate. At their current prices, that many Jupitors would cost $75,900,000. That hash rate would be chasing after $129,600,000 worth of value. Obviously, future purchases of mining equipment would be spread over many vendors. |
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Some time ago I tried to find a link for the spreadsheet and didn't see it. Now even picture seems gone   Ya Postimage was giving me issues trying to link the full-rez pic - it would work, and then not. I've reuploaded it to tinypic, so it should work better now. I've also made some changes, including removing the USB sticks, the K64, the BFL Little Single, and I updated the 5GH/s and the 10GH/s ASICMiner blades, including the new prices. Real men post links to the spreadsheet, not pictures of it. |
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Figures without tables and in proportional fonts make me cry.  |
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But that's the definition of a scam. It isn't just: "take a bunch of money and disappear with it all."
Lots of cons and frauds run with some getting return - maybe big return. That's how they stay in business.
It's called partial reinforcement scheduling. If you want to keep 50 sheep at the fence, feed two some grain, then stay in sight of all of them, and they'll all stay, hoping they get theirs.
What you are describing is a Ponzi. A scam is, most often, where everyone gets fucked. BFL is certainly a Ponzi, and i suspect before too long they will pack up shop and move to Costa Rica, or the FTC will kick down the door and seize everything. Either way, i feel like i got bent over the table. If you have ordered from BFL and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask BFL for one, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. One customer has already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via BTC or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with BFL to get your refund. |
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Woof. While Avalon has not released information how many chips have been ordered, a 135 box shipment would amount to over 2.1 million ASIC chips. Given that Avalon sells them in batches of 10,000 for 780 BTC, this lot alone is worth over 164,000 BTC ($14,700,000).The Kaiju have arrived.  |
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