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Do not assume it will go back up to its previous levels. A 60% drop is significant and many will be fearful of pushing it too high after this. So, dont put in more than u can afford to lose.
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No guarantee that anything will recover. Please dont invest more than wat u can afford to lose.
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Man, I hate to be right on this. Mining is so dead now.
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This just doesnt look good. No offense to Scott and I dont wanna get into another quarrel. Guys, I suggest dont buy halong mining until they have actually shipped a miner in april/may.
Scott seems to have gone quiet. Maybe he is also unsure of things now?
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Hopefully Samsung wakes up their idea and realizes that there is no point competing with bitmain in such a small market.... No one wins then.
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The A2 (I have a FEW of them) is close to 1250 watts for 110 Mhash at the wall (one of mine is 1240, one is 1260, both running Seasonic X-1250 due to issues/limitations of the original gold-rated PS).
They pull around 1070 watts for 110 Mhash (which is the practical limit on the original PS, but some later ones and many "aftermarket upgraded" ones have bigger PS - I have 2 that are NOT upgraded, one at 1055 one at 1085 watts for 100 Mhash).
The older A2 88 model (I have ONE) pulls 980 watts for that 88 Mhash.
These numbers will vary some on each unit depending on ASIC quality.
The ASIC was not well optimized, the KNC Titan was noticeably more efficient (though not nearly as much so as the L3/L3+ which IS a highly optimised design).
If Bitmain comes up with a 14/16 nm based Scrypt miner, I would expect it to be about twice as efficient as the L3/L3+ - at which point Innosilicon will probably be playing "more reliable at a cost in efficiency" again.
For reference, even with the major price drop on Litecoin over the last month and despite the MASSIVE increase in hashrate over the past year, my A2s are STILL profitable (but even at MY very low electric rate they're getting marginal again, like they were around this time LAST year before the big price jumps).
I believe u calculated wrongly because at 5 cents usd electricity, your A2 breaks even currently. Anything higher and u are losing money. Also it only makes a few oe couple of bucks a month at below 5 cents. |
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This can be a significant problem for those who use mining GPU. Network complexity will increase significantly and will make this method ineffective. The production capacity of Samsung is very great. They can significantly increase sales volumes of ASIC. This will cause a significant reduction in the profitability of mining. I think it's bad news.
Do you mean Samsung will build miners based on GPU, not ASIC? I dont know but chances are, it will be asic. I dont know if quality will be good. One of their note phones did explode after all lol |
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Dude, there is NO CORRELATION between price and difficulty period lol. Price got pumped last year due to hype and good news from media. That seems to have died down for now.
If there is a correlation, dash price needs to be 2-3 times higher than it is now due to the difficulty's phenominal rise. Antminer D3 will then make some significant profit instead of wat it is doing now.
Sorry to say that but you might be wrong here because there is some correlation between price and difficulty. It may indeed take some time to get established and revealed, especially when there are huge price swings in the short term. Nevertheless, if the price goes up in the long term, new miners will join the club, and the rise in difficulty will definitely follow after some adjustment period until profitability sets at some typical value. On the other hand, when the price goes down, it becomes less profitable or just no longer profitable to mine for some or most miners, they fall off, and difficulty goes down too. Obviously, it is not as simple as it looks for there are a lot of factors at play here. Volatility is likely the most important one of them, which massively complicates the matter, but certainly not the only factor. Another likely factor is that miners may be mining at a loss for some time expecting the price to rise in the future. Dude, there is no correlation. Tbat is just u thinking someone is looking out for u lol. More miners = higher difficulty Price has nothing to do with difficulty Price may have nothing to do with difficulty but difficulty definitely has everything to do with price. When will there be more miners - when the price rises or when the price falls long-term? Rising prices will undoubtedly increase profitability of mining at the current difficulty simply because the same number of coins mined will cost more, but if profits increase in some field or activity, they will invariably attract a lot of new players. Therefore, the rise in Bitcoin prices will attract new miners and the rise in difficulty will follow as you say yourself. More miners means higher difficulty. Price is the cause and difficulty is the effect in this case but all causal relationships are necessarily statistically correlated, though the opposite is not always true, of course. It seems like you are looking at one side of the equation or in one direction only. Dude, u are dead wrong. There is no relationship besides people checking mining profitability before a purchase. That doesnt affect much and is made alot WORSE when there are more manufacturers. People checking mining profitability before a purchase is exactly how this correlation get established in practice. When they see that mining is profitable, they will buy mining equipment. But profitable is synonymous here with rising prices because the coins which miners receive simply start to cost more. So the higher the profitability the greater number of would-be miners are going to buy ASICs. But as you correctly pointed out yourself, more miners leads to higher difficulty. Thus the correlation between the price and mining difficulty is established. That isnt anywhere near good enough to be called correlation because we dont know how many miners get shipped and there is a 2 month window before the machines arrive. Furthermore, there will be alottt more machines shipped when there are more manufacturers. Samsung may very well make a loss here but it isnt a big deal to them since they are huge. For example many new miners ordered units 1-2 months back when profits were farrr higher, around 5-8 times higher and now, when they get their machine, the proditability is a hell lot lower. Thus, there is no real correlation considering how huge the difference is.... And seeing how btc price went down unexpectedly, dont expect last year 10x price increase to surely occur juz because it did last year. That kept mining alive last year. Btc is very unlikely to shoot up that much this year lol |
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Learn to read I am well capable of reading, here’s what was said: ...
To clarify the chart I have is set to have an increase in difficulty at 1% every 18 days. THIS IS AN ESTIMATE. It may drop % a few times. However I have factored in the average increase over the last two years and even the average from the last year.
... 5% preset difficulty every 14 days, thats an avg of 11% monthly, the avg was 7% in 2017. Last year there was some big jumps in difficulty too... Have you had a look at the curve over the last 2 years: https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/2y?t=lAs HoleShot correctly points out in the previous post, it’s following a logarithmic function. What you are doing is on this graph, you’re drawing a straight line between the first and last point, you’re then extending that line to predict the future. Surely you can see that the slope of the line you’re drawing is not following the latest trend of the curve. And like i told you some posts before i dont know what hashrate chart u are looking at. The one im looking at we are back at hashrate lvls of 15 days ago and it keeps going down. Perhaps this one: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rateor this one: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#1yor this one: https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/bitcoin-network-hashrate-chart, or this one: https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&g=15&t=a… Which one are you looking at? Also nobody expects difficulty to simply go flat Good. but to go up in lower numbers than it is raising after the whole craze in December Not sure why you would expect that, growth rate has always increased. PD: I dont think anybody is discussing with you that selling a s9 for 5k is much better than mining i sold my order of 6 for 4.5k each Very wise decision Sir, instant 12k profit :-) No point in getting too excited. Those numbers are highly conservative and simply to pose as an example to the newbies that are unaware that selling Bitcoin at 7500 USD/ BTC is foolish. When I first started this project and keeping the spreadsheet going we were having 30% to 20% gains on average every difficulty target. What I wanted to demonstrate with this chart that even if the network balanced out and remained at an improbable 1% gain. At the present rate 7500 USD you'd be hard-pressed even make one Bitcoin profitably. I have also set one to a more reasonable 10% increase for the next 6 retargets while BTC is trading at 15000 usd I also make note that anything past 3 difficulty retarget is hard to predict. For reference I set a second difficulty at 1% after 6 target levels.. That is why I try to take the average of 2016-2017 and the last month of 2018. I personally believe that come April we're going to see another 20% increase. This is simply because Samsung is now making a ASICs. With increased production we are also due for an increase in chip performance with the next-generation hardware. Update: For instance if you mined with the S9 under those conservative network difficulty increases you would net 0.49 BTC and at 15000 = 4850 USD. After hardware and power costs your profit would 2500usd. This doesn't even factor in overhead such as employee security and rent or any incidentals. If you took that same investment and purchased BTC at 7500usd now. You would have 0.65btc. So ultimately selling BTC now for hardware seems foolish. That is unless instead of paying tax you prefer to have that tax portion work for you by reinvested in a mining asset you can depreciate. Dude, it is foolish to assume that btc will go back to 15k usd. There is no guarantee of that.... Past performance is not an indication of future performance. |
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Here is a chart that you can use that will help. I have updated it with Bitmains latest offering of the Antminer S9. It seems that the network difficulty will be dropping. Perhaps due to BCH taking a little of the mining hardware out of the picture or older hardware being taken offline to to operating costs. To clarify the chart I have is set to have an increase in difficulty at 1% every 18 days. THIS IS AN ESTIMATE. It may drop % a few times. However I have factored in the average increase over the last two years and even the average from the last year. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QS1BBV11KNGTF8N_-fdfmjTZ3WzPQFbLfVrl5n6R8s/edit?usp=sharing https://i.imgur.com/v4xu4s1.pngGreat work, goes to show some naysayers here talking about Avg 15% increases... Some ppl are very naive to think big mining operations will run at a loss based on faith of a bitcoin price increase. Fact is mining will always be profitable, the only way a S9 becomes unprofitable is if something REALLY good is released in the next few months and they flood the market with it. That is very possible. Mining is not good now. Alot of things can happen before breakeven occurs. Currently, break even is longer and thus, risks are far higher. |
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I got my "A4+ Super" from Innosilicon miner this week as compensation for the late A5.
Price was $403.33 for shipping.
To quote the email I had received "Delivery of the miners will be finished within 3 biz days after payment confirmation."
In typical Innosilicon fashion, 45 days later, it arrived.
The miner label says "Innosilicon A4+ Super LTC Master (new and better A4+)"
I find it interesting that I had not seen this online before.
It's hashing very nicely at 663 MHS at 840W.
Despite Innosilicon's reputation and customer support issues, I do appreciate the compensated miner and realize that they weren't required to do this.
I am running the latest updated files "update_180129.bin" for both miners and their both running fine.
Did u overall make money or lose with that deal because there was a time where D3 which is 15hgz was selling for 5k usd (first batch) because it could make around 8-10k usd id i recall right. Next batches were 2.5k and 1.4k usd if I recall right. Ao if u gotten A5 fast, can roi real fast. Unfortunately due to shipping delays, nobody was able to reach ROI with an A5 yet. The D3's were out months before anybody got their hands on the A5, they drove up the difficulty to high to fast for the A5 purchasers to take advantage of the low difficulty rate. Which is why they decided to offer the A4+ as compensation for anybody who bought an A5. I got one from the first batch (I got mine December 1st, they originally promised early October) but the D3's drove up the mining difficulty way to much before anybody with an A5 had the opportunity to get in early. I've only been able to mine about 0.67 Dash with my A5. At current prices of Dash and Litecoin, I'm still looking at well over a year or two to reach ROI. But by that time there will most likely be something that is more powerful that drives the mining difficulty up too high. I believe at this point, the only chance to reach ROI is if the prices of Dash and Litecoin appreciate significantly over time. Sigh, thats the problem. And now most or almost all dash miners will not break even. I got near around 2 dash with 2 D3. Speed is important and mining these days juz gets harder. The thing is if u believe in price appreciation, then, u should buy coins rather than mine. U will make more that way since u buy more coins, get them faster and they appreciate rather than u mine and u get lesser coins than if u were to buy and the coins come slowly over time. |
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S9s will be mining at a loss around June. Roi is approaching never very quickly at current btc prices.
BUT people are still buying each batch S9 released by bitmain with almost double price..CRAZY Electricity in my country is less than 0.005$ kw/h. Some ppl will always profit... At 0.005, there should be a limit to the amount of electricity u can use. Otherwise, your government is basically subsidizing u heavily. That means your profit is their loss. |
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I got my "A4+ Super" from Innosilicon miner this week as compensation for the late A5.
Price was $403.33 for shipping.
To quote the email I had received "Delivery of the miners will be finished within 3 biz days after payment confirmation."
In typical Innosilicon fashion, 45 days later, it arrived.
The miner label says "Innosilicon A4+ Super LTC Master (new and better A4+)"
I find it interesting that I had not seen this online before.
It's hashing very nicely at 663 MHS at 840W.
Despite Innosilicon's reputation and customer support issues, I do appreciate the compensated miner and realize that they weren't required to do this.
I am running the latest updated files "update_180129.bin" for both miners and their both running fine.
Did u overall make money or lose with that deal because there was a time where D3 which is 15hgz was selling for 5k usd (first batch) because it could make around 8-10k usd id i recall right. Next batches were 2.5k and 1.4k usd if I recall right. Ao if u gotten A5 fast, can roi real fast. |
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Hi folks,
I am looking to put $CAD 20,000 into a startup mining project at home to learn about the business, assess longer-term viability and of course to have fun. I was wondering what you would recommend to start with in terms of specific hardware as well as which coins to mine at launch. (All hardware costs assume Manufacturer list pricing, and are in $CAD)
Right now I'm thinking about the following:
3 Antminer S9s mining Bitcoin: $10,000
1 Antminer A3 mining Sia: $1,700
1 Antminer L3+ mining Litecoin: $2,300
1 GPU rig mining Altcoins $4,300
Cost for electrician and incidentals: $1,700
Total: $CAD 20,000
I'd live to hear how YOU would invest the $20,000?
Cheers.
U did not take into account your setup and cooling costs. U need to rent a place as the noise is very loud or find some expensive soundproofing solution. Do not underestimate the noise. |
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Dude, there is NO CORRELATION between price and difficulty period lol. Price got pumped last year due to hype and good news from media. That seems to have died down for now.
If there is a correlation, dash price needs to be 2-3 times higher than it is now due to the difficulty's phenominal rise. Antminer D3 will then make some significant profit instead of wat it is doing now.
Sorry to say that but you might be wrong here because there is some correlation between price and difficulty. It may indeed take some time to get established and revealed, especially when there are huge price swings in the short term. Nevertheless, if the price goes up in the long term, new miners will join the club, and the rise in difficulty will definitely follow after some adjustment period until profitability sets at some typical value. On the other hand, when the price goes down, it becomes less profitable or just no longer profitable to mine for some or most miners, they fall off, and difficulty goes down too. Obviously, it is not as simple as it looks for there are a lot of factors at play here. Volatility is likely the most important one of them, which massively complicates the matter, but certainly not the only factor. Another likely factor is that miners may be mining at a loss for some time expecting the price to rise in the future. Dude, there is no correlation. Tbat is just u thinking someone is looking out for u lol. More miners = higher difficulty Price has nothing to do with difficulty Price may have nothing to do with difficulty but difficulty definitely has everything to do with price. When will there be more miners - when the price rises or when the price falls long-term? Rising prices will undoubtedly increase profitability of mining at the current difficulty simply because the same number of coins mined will cost more, but if profits increase in some field or activity, they will invariably attract a lot of new players. Therefore, the rise in Bitcoin prices will attract new miners and the rise in difficulty will follow as you say yourself. More miners means higher difficulty. Price is the cause and difficulty is the effect in this case but all causal relationships are necessarily statistically correlated, though the opposite is not always true, of course. It seems like you are looking at one side of the equation or in one direction only. Dude, u are dead wrong. There is no relationship besides people checking mining profitability before a purchase. That doesnt affect much and is made alot WORSE when there are more manufacturers. Look at dash mining. So many people using the antminer D3 will not break even. Bitmain is nice enough to give us coupons to help some. The most efficient dash miner via innosilicon is also a bad investment because it takes too long to break even for the cost. Dash price has risen about 100% in last 3 months and 200% in last 6 months and Bitmain has stopped selling the D3 and yet, it is bad. This is because there are TOO MANY miners since then. Everyone looks at the profitability of the coin and orders the miners. The miners come 2 months later from 2 different manufacturers. The difficulty skyrockets when all the miners are online (2 months later) and people realize it will take many months to break even. The problem is that new more efficient miners appear before they can break even and thus, their miner is obsolete. That is made worse when instead of ordering from 2 manufacturers, miners can now order from 3 manufacturers ....there will be MORE miners that suddenly appear after the 2 month delivery time because there are now MORE manufacturers selling more amounts of machines.... And as someone pointed out that while we buy miners at 1300-2300 USD, the manufacturers can create it at a fraction of the cost, under 1000 USD. There is nothing stopping them from just making more machines and mining it for themselves. Their breakeven is alot faster than any buyer. It is even possible that in future, only asic miner manufactures may be miners. At the moment, it looks unlikely though. |
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I really don't understand why is the fuss around A6 and where is the Novelty ??  Yes, it has 2.45 times more hash than Bitmain's L3+, while is 2 times bigger, AND 4 (FOUR) times more expensive !A6's ROI is 153 days currently, but for the same hash power of 1.23GHz , if you use (theoretically) 2.45 units of L3+ - you will get ROI = 99 days - which mean A6 is 50% less profitable than L3+  2 reasons. 1) Better efficiency. In the long run, the A4 A4+ and A6 will still be profitable when the L3+ turns into a money-loser. 2) RELIABILITY. Innosilicon has a TON BETTER reputation for reliability than Bitmain recent generations, and an INFINITELY better reputation for FIXING issues when they do crop up. Overall though I'd prefer the A4+ *IF THE MOQ WAN'T SO INSANELY HIGH* due to the better flexability from it's much lower power draw. Agreed that the MOQ is too high. The price is also too high in my opinion. Another problem is that bitmain L3+ is only 28mn. The S9 is 16nm though. Not trying to pour cold water but I did some googling. Inno A2 terminator which was on a 28nm chip did about 900-1000watt for 110mh. The antminer L3+, also on 28nm, does 504mh for 820w, which is better. Inno A4+ and A6 is 14nm, and is about 20+% more efficient than an ant L3+. Problem is if bitmain comes up with a 14nm chip as well, it should be far more efficient than inno A4+ I would think. However, I could be wrong and it doesnt occur. |
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If we thought the instructions for updating software on the A5 through the TF card reader was bad. Wait until you see the instructions for the newest mandatory hardware update PDF titled "Mandatory hardware fix to avoid overheating in A5 dashmaster". It's actually hilariously poorly written. Any other legitimate company would offer a paid recall of their product and fix their overheating hardware issue to maintain their reputation and trust. I guess since it has been made clear that all their customers are dissatisfied and angry at Innosilicon, I guess they figure they have nothing to lose by issuing their latest update requiring the customers to do it themselves. Apparently their warranty seal means nothing if they are demanding that customers actually open up their miners and fuck with very intricate components  Not that it matters to me because mine came with broken warranty seals anyways  I'm surprised that my A5 is actually hashing nicely at 33 GH/s. Everything they do is such a facepalm that it seems like a miracle that they actually managed to create the worlds most efficient Dash miner (commercially available at the time of this post). Also, changing topic, more A5's are popping up on eBay. The one I saw today was selling as a "Buy it now" / "Free shipping" for $5300 US... Ouch. Thats insane. At 10 cents electricity, it will take around 29 months to break even at that price. At 5 cents electricity, it would take near 26 months. This isnt about electrical cost and this calculation is without VAT yet. The machine may not even last that long and alot of things can go wrong during that period. Also, dash is somewhat asic resistant and asic resistance is one of dash's design goals. I guess everyone mining dash is just not happy these days lol. I believe manufacturers cant sell them at a price that makes sense for miners to buy. To sell dash miners at such a price would not make sense to manufacturers. Does anyone actually buy dash miners these days? Mining other coins are better. Most people mining dash would probably never break even, sadly. |
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A 6 gpu mining rig makes lkke 3 times more than an L3 now lol. This is so sad.
Hopefully samsung wakes up to reality and decide against coming into asic. They should go make gpu instead lol.
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Who proved it? None of my S9s ever broke down. They were the most reliable and profitable machines.
I have, because I manage thousands of each type. The T9s are easily 3 times as reliable as the S9. Whats the lifespan of an average S9 and T9 and wat temps do u run it at? |
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Lets hope samsung re-evaluates the market and backs off.
I don't understand how they managed to keep things hush hush and have a foundry running, at full capacity and mass producing chips by the end of January as per that article. I find it very odd that they literally released something like this at the end of January... Well, they are a big company. This is like a small thing to them. |
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