Prepare for a Saturday long Ramble... it will be very Bitcoin centric, but will come around to Monero in the end...
This probably has less to do with Monero and more to do with Bitcoin however. BTC dominance is bouncing strong this week after the recovery from $20K to $25K, as opposed to falling further. Starting to get the 2019 vibes of a continued recovery for Bitcoin that leaves alts in the dust, regardless of how relevant they are. Ethereum being another example of failing to keep up with the no.1 reserve asset this week.
Many will probably argue this is do with SVB, and therefore the mentality of investors fleeing fiat or banks for a reserve asset such as Bitcoin, as opposed to speculating on altcoins. But personally I think this is just the recovery stage of the bear market whereby Bitcoin outperforms the the rest of the market and would of happened regardless, eventually, and least this year at some point.
Another year of consolidation in the current wide range of 0.04 and 0.08 could be the ingredient needed for something relevant to happen for this coin though.
Agree to a great extent. And I think the price rise DOES have to do with SVB as well as the other (and coming) bank failures, but is ALSO a recovery from the bear market, as well as the natural progression of Bitcoin's path. I think we are currently looking at yet another contender for a Bitcoin perfect storm. I will add some fundamental analysis to your technical magnificence. (And keep it at least a little on topic by the end, promise)
Time: Bitcoin is 14+ years old. Still survives. Almost everyone with money has heard of it by now. People WITHOUT money have TOTALLY got the message and are USING it. The value prop is understood by a significant (probably still minority) portion of folks.
FTX (Crypto): The smarter folks can see what FTX was: A crypto based super ponzi. And some of them REALLY know what it was: shadow gvmt attack on BTC, money laundering ring in collusion with TPTB. And people realize that Bitcoin is the one thing they DID NOT HOLD. The real meat here is still fairly badly misunderstood, but it's a continuum of understanding that at LEAST outlines that Bitcoin is unique. It's just the western 'man on the street' that does not know the difference. Smart money sees it, and people like the Nigerians get it. Folks are FINALLY starting to see what is wrong with the giant do-everything blockchain model.
Ordinals! This one is actually funny to me. It is badly misunderstood by most people... one side sees it as a great boon for Bitcoin that it can "do what ETH does! Whee!" and the other side is wringing their hands over "misuse of chain space! OMG!". And, well, there is also the folks who see it as a way to attack or embarrass Bitcoin. But this is just another round of all the same misunderstandings that have driven value into BCASH (et al), ETH and so many other scams. Of course Bitcoin can do what ETH does. It will just do it the right way in the end. Primarily OFF CHAIN with hashes written to the base layer. And blockspace will all be used. Every single bit of it. Every single block, in the end. And we will keep fighting about how to manage this part of Bitcoin's properties for decades past our lifetimes, I predict. In the end what Ordinals is hinting at is the development that will go into the Bitcoin ecosystem that will pretty much rip the rug out of every other value prop alts have. (Yes, maybe even Monero... but nuance there still, IMO) The perfect geo-political storm: We are seeing this unfold now. And it is too much to really hit all the points here, but Wars, rumors of wars, pandemics, bio weapons, the fall of the US, the rise of China, the energy sector beginning to move from petro to minerals, the rise of Africa, the unveiling of the CIA state that is the west, the attempt at a socialist world order by the "elites", the decline of the $, CDBCs, and on and on. The perfect macro storm: Like the prior this is huge, and too much to write about... but we are seeing the effects of the FIAT meltdown begin to ripple out over the entire world economic stage. This is where the Bitcoin value prop has a chance to really ignite demand. If you have a lot of value you are most certainly moving it around now (if you had not already started) and for the first time in it's history Bitcoin is a real contender for a risky, but attractive store of value. In fact, THAT is what I believe we are ABOUT to witness... Little teenage bitcoin is going to solidify it's place in the world as a legitimate and unique store of value. What I believe this looks like (I am been saying this for years... so eventually I will either be right or just look crazier each time) is a breathtaking rise in the value as the scales finally get tipped by demand. Most people think that has already happened. I think it most definitely has not. Eventually Bitcoin will be worth way too much for the sorts of wild swings we have seen in it's history so far as nearly impossible to occur again. It would take too much value moving in and out to make any sense. We are simply not there yet. The APPL market cap still is more than FOUR TIMES the market cap of Bitcoin. Just APPL. Eventually this will no longer be the case. And I believe the market cap in BTC will be large enough for people to be able to do trades in it close to the entire value of it currently without moving the price all that much. I have no idea what that value is... but it is likely several multiples of the market cap of APPL (and GOOG, and MSFT, and Gold, and... and...) . It is not going to take very many people deciding to move a very SMALL amount of their value (which is currently, obviously at risk) into Bitcoin as a "crazy hedge" to tip these scales. We have been building this powder keg for YEARS, and we are just about there now. Monero? So... as we watch the world financial system(s) undergo the greatest turmoil since ~1971 we are also starting to see these powerful pushes further and further away from privacy. The central banks, who hold ALL THE POWER in the world, realize they have to RUSH to get their digital products out. And even the common schmuck is beginning to realize we are headed into a world in which privacy is an archaic value of the past. And Bitcoin, for better and worse, is a transparent ledger. Monero is perfectly positioned to continue to be used by people who understand the need for privacy. This need is only going to continue to grow. And I believe we have a LOT of headlines in the future that look like" "Nazi White Supremacist Group Taken Down by Bitcoin Chain Analysis" before Bitcoin ends up solving it's privacy problems (also off-chain), and the demand for Monero is only going to increase. So... I agree with Dragonvslinux that the XMR/BTC pair is probably going to suffer in the short term (as it has) and probably also into Bitcoin's meteoric rise I keep predicting. But I believe it will hold better than the majority of alts, and I also think it will continue to emerge as THE privacy centric base layer for some time to come before Bitcoin also, probably, eats it's lunch. And i continue to believe an opaque base layer blockchain "coin" is perhaps the ONLY idea that has legs against the financial tsunami that Bitcoin is destined to be. Yet, personally I think if what one wants the most is a gain in USD value on their crypto, then BTC is the obvious play for a while. |
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I'll let that spam-ish post go but please don't post it again here
I'd have given you 20 merit had you deleted it.  But smooth has a light hand... that's good I think |
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Franky in this thread...  We need a bath of realism. We are still so early, that missteps, errors, scams and complete turnaround are still very possible, or rather in some more advanced questions, light LN; should be considered pretty normal. So I Like @franky1, who tries to point those faults , not to make fun of it, but to learn from errors. Edit: how comes the gif are out of orders? Too big? Not sure. But I agree that to treat a thing like lightning with the greatest of dubiousness is the best idea. In fact I think the Monero community engendered the best spirit of healthy doubt and mistrust of any project in the space. And it must be this way. A large bug in lightning would put a quarter of a billion dollars at risk. And we should continue to try to find the problems. And there are plenty, for sure. Most of our Frankie's arguments are extremely lopsided though. |
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chivo (el salvador) no longer supports LN (chivo and strike went their separate ways)
instead there is a middle man custodial service that acts
as a gateway from fiat <> chivo
as a gateway from btc <> chivo
as a gateway from fiat <> btc
and as a separate service
as a gateway from btc <> msat
chivo does not use lightning directly anymore. it uses a custodial service
(alphapoint) / river financial
..again lightning was in chivo sept 2021-december(strike partnership)
but due to bottlenecks and liquidity issues. el salv dropped it and went with alphapoint as a custodial service.
Franky in this thread... |
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Wow, seems like this thread got very quiet all of a sudden  Really it's been quiet in here for quite some time... Meanwhile, XMRUSD is struggling to hold onto it's bullish trending 200 WMA at volume support, so a retest of $100 might well be on the cards if unable to consolidate at volume support. So maybe Bitcoin will stay flat in the coming weeks/months and the re-test of 0.004 BTC coincides with $100, or otherwise Bitcoin to reach $30K, with XMR maintaining around $150 but otherwise falling to 0.004 BTC. That'd be my guess.
There's an irony that BTCUSD is currently struggling at it's Weekly death cross, but just like XMRBTC hasn't found support from it's golden cross, it seems likely Bitcoin can break through it's "lagging" death cross.
Your calls tend to be quite good... we will see. I do not know how long it lasts, but Monero seems to be one of the few "crypto" projects with a REAL use case. And one at odds with BTC. |
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Good grief. cAPS decides to stop posting at the BCT idiot forum and suddenly the Monero speculation thread has not had a post for the better part of a month. C'mon people! OK... OK... I will give you a bullish bit of info. I had to reinstall my main OS. I use Arch Linux. And to get the regular Monero binaries (GUI and command line) you typically have to go into the "user repository" (AUR). This means, essentially, that you compile a binary of the program, maintained by a volunteer. You basically build the program from source. It is not an official package for the distribution. But behold!  Arch Linux now includes Monero as an official program in the community repository! Yeah.. this is sort of fringe stuff... But honestly, it is also quite validating that the best linux distro now includes Monero as an 'official' app! |
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Devs can't afford to fk this up.
That's the money basically. And I am hoping they are not. I am going to dig in a little this weekend and see what I see. I have begun to make a list of "line in the sand" criteria. For example I want full backwards compatibility with the old addressing scheme. Similar to Segwit and Taproot. But since this is a HARD fork (as usual) they do not HAVE to do that. This one seems to obvious it hurts... they HAVE to have backwards compatibility. Anyway... if I feel it is relevant I will share my thoughts. (currently I doubt it will be lol... but we will see). Also... *IF* the Monero devs got captured somehow... ah never mind. I will bring that up later, maybe. |
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He advocates for Bitcoin... Whatever... maybe it's not perfect. Here, you, on the other hand, are advocating against Saylor.
I've been known to advocate for Bitcoin before, or at least I was trying to. for 10 years. Spamlord pitched up about 2 years ago, and he's been shouting very loud and very often, really as if he's trying to take control of the conversation. if I'm wrong about that, explain. if not, everyone advocating for him looks pretty weird at best, and shilling paid mini spamlords at worst. . Yes. I know you have been here a long time. So have I. And sorry I attacked... it's been a shitty week/month/three years. I just read the "paid troll" argument several posts back (and you are using it here too!) and it's just so tiresome. I am all about adversarial thinking, but calling anyone you disagree with a paid troll is a shitty argument. i agree with you Saylor is all about promoting Saylor. But he has also bought gimongus amounts of BTC. And has an incredible incentive to prote BTC and himself... If you don't like him, you don't like him... I get it. But seriously JJG a paid Saylor shill? Me? Bah. Also, he does a really good job communicating what Bitcoin is. Particularly to the sorts of folks who don't understand it and want to kill it. Nobody is a perfect advocate for Bitcoin... not him, not Greg Maxwell for that matter. But Saylor is not that bad IMO. |
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Why such a Saylor naysayer?
because he spams his face and meaningless "interviews" in every piece of free internet column inches available, seemingly because he wants to become a bitcoin celebrity of some kind (Andreas Antonopoulos was the same kind of character, but even he wasn't as shamelessly obvious as Spamlord here) so you'll all stop spamming Michael Spamlord's spam, because you aren't spammers, right? Nope. And screw you. Not because I like or dislike Saylor.. but because I dislike someone trying to tell me what to think. Him... Or you. He advocates for Bitcoin... Whatever... maybe it's not perfect. Here, you, on the other hand, are advocating against Saylor. Whatever. |
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I assume the person trolling this thread and pissing off long time regulars, some of whom add value, perhaps as a means to drive them off? I dunno... maybe working.
It's sad to me, but probably just a season... I just ducked in to mention this particular disappointment... it is what it is...
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Well thanks to John Foss' newsletter here is the tech info for Seraphis: https://gist.github.com/UkoeHB/f508a6ad973fbf85195403057e87449eAnd for Jamtis... the new addressing scheme: https://gist.github.com/tevador/50160d160d24cfc6c52ae02eb3d17024These are mammoth consensus changes in my opinion. Monero has always had a somewhat progressive approach to consensus level changes. I am not technical enough to know what the risks are (and I am pretty technical). But I can see well enough that this stuff is going to introduce a lot of possibility of risk. I am not trying to FUD by any means.. and the Monero community has ALWAYS had an environment welcoming dubious opinion. So I am stating a firsh blush opinion that I hope the right amount of caution is being taken in introducing these changes. I think it would be naive to assume that there are not powerful, smart, actors that would love to change monero in a way that would cause it to have a chink in it's armor. How do we know that consensus changes of this level are not exactly that? |
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Monero has been cup and handles all the way down. Sadly most of them have not resolved the way we would want them to. But we are seeing yet another breakout attempt on the longest of frames on USD/XMR.  I literally never even consider TA in /usd terms. Just sayin....  Are you guys doing this? I have been... for 7+ years. Been remiss as of late, just cold hold mostly for years. I do spark up a node for forks though. This upcoming fork (not sure when it is) I need to read up on it. It worries me somewhat really. Seems like a big one. But I need to learn about Seraphis etc. |
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Just sayin.... Are you guys doing this? I have been... for 7+ years. |
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Monero has been cup and handles all the way down. Sadly most of them have not resolved the way we would want them to. But we are seeing yet another breakout attempt on the longest of frames on USD/XMR. |
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....
OK capsie, but why delete? You also deleted your follow up post - which was stating that you “see things ahead of time”, and something about making a little extra cash. Well, for starters I find your timing to pivot your narrative very interesting. It’s really impressing that the global narrative is shifting to: “tHe uNvAcCiNaTeD wErE RiGht, tHe VacCiNe iS nOt SAFU”. My guess at this point is, that you’re again assisting TPTB, by spreading fear to the vaccinated this time round. Sic. That said, your above analysis is not far from the truth I’m afraid. I’m not here to gloat about people dying, especially when they’ve been brainwashed to sheer ignorance for their entire lives. But I am here to tell you that you’re full of shit. As always. Last but not least, you do not “see things ahead of time”. Even your Bitcoin parallel - “saw the value” in 2011 - does not hold true in my book. You were introduced to Bitcoin via your gambling addiction, as you’ve mentioned before. I can safely assume that you did not understand the value of Bitcoin until years later - 2013 at the earliest - if not later. But at 2011? You were in for the “free internet money”. Not sure why he deleted the post.. but to some extent he's right.. I mean what happened... as per the stats only 24.9% of people in low-income have received the vaccination... What happened to the other 75.1%??? Did they get immunity to Covid by magic? Even in the overall world vaccination percentage stands around 68% and remember we are talking about single dose let alone the booster shots. I'm sure we all know someone who was fully vaccinated and got the booster shots but still contracted COVID. I'm not an anti vaxxer in fact I still trust vaccines (do I have any other option?) but still there are very serious unanswered questions around COVID and how Governments handled the situation. I deleted my post for two reasons. I regretted posting it, and I got close to saying some things i should not have said. It is what it is, you can read the quote. And I stand by all of it. But I regretted posting it because it is very controversial and political. I understand that. And I do not want to do that here... so I deleted it. And though I have the other poster on ignore, my views ARE and always have been very nuanced on both Covid AND the Vaccine. And they have evolved. I do not think in terms of black and white, at least I try not to. I am not a Bitcoin maxi, for example. But I constantly defend even the most "toxic" of them because I think they are mostly correct. Similarly with the vaccine. The judgement those who chose not to get it went through between 2020-2021 was absolutely abhorrent in my opinion (and still is). And people who scoff at those of us who did get it, either out of trust, or through coercion is just as hideous. Anyway... I have had about enough of the vitriol and bullshit here. It's time for me to "move on to other things". Internet suicides are always overrated though. |
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I am sad to announce that one of the oldest lightning network nodes to exist is going to be shut down permanently. (well unless I change my mind. I still have the details needed to spin it back up. Wink ) Deej... A node way more than 3 years old... A child of one of the first 200 nodes on the LN. Foolishly run on a raspberry pi. On a single hard drive. The hard drive failed. I was running DEEJ (LND) and it's sister node JEED (CL) on the same setup. Deej was difficult to recover, but Jeed was much more resilient. This has made me realize that the Blockstream implementation is superior to the LND one. As it turns out there are many other ways this is true. Like Bolt 12. Anyway... I will keep JEED running, and might toss a few more BTC at it... but the venerable DEEJ is being completely shut down... Long live the king. https://1ml.com/node/02a0bcc2b99673587d4a92028a2b2ce709b72c904962e2f783fd480c2c41e3dc7dhttps://1ml.com/node/03562bdcf00fe0cf44e8a491a8c9b26f31c4e45c9a88cdfd6a2f0f2550a304c73e*EDIT* Remove rude words to our troll lol** |
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I am sad to announce that one of the oldest lightning network nodes to exist is going to be shut down permanently. (well unless I change my mind. I still have the details needed to spin it back up. ) Deej... A node way more than 3 years old... A child of one of the first 200 nodes on the LN. Foolishly run on a raspberry pi. On a single hard drive. The hard drive failed. I was running DEEJ (LND) and it's sister node JEED (CL) on the same setup. Deej was difficult to recover, but Jeed was much more resilient. This has made me realize that the Blockstream implementation is superior to the LND one. As it turns out there are many other ways this is true. Like Bolt 12. Anyway... I will keep JEED running, and might toss a few more BTC at it... but the venerable DEEJ is being completely shut down... Long live the king. https://1ml.com/node/02a0bcc2b99673587d4a92028a2b2ce709b72c904962e2f783fd480c2c41e3dc7dhttps://1ml.com/node/03562bdcf00fe0cf44e8a491a8c9b26f31c4e45c9a88cdfd6a2f0f2550a304c73e |
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Seth may be one of the best evangelists for Monero we have. Honest. Principled. Values based. Him, and the dark net. *Sigh* I am too old to live long enough to see that I was right. But I am/was. May that statement go down in history. |
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This is the kind of deal I'm hoping for. Even if I don't get a lambo it's a nice profit to make.  https://bitsonline.com/lamborghini-bitcoin-saddington/... having bought his first bitcoin way back in 2011. When he bought in, the bitcoin price was $2.52. Come October 2017, and Saddington’s cheap investment from 2011 had earned enough profit to allow him to purchase the Lamborghini. Rather than selling his coins at an exchange and buying the car with fiat, however, Saddington made the entire purchase with bitcoin.
Based on what he paid for the bitcoins in 2011, Saddington said his car only cost around $115. Profit from the skyrocketing bitcoin price took care of the rest.
He bought the car in despite the Bitcoin Lambo memes warning against buying a car with the rapidly-appreciating bitcoin. Saddington acknowledged that his purchase may end up costing him $20 million in the future as bitcoin’s value goes up. “But sometimes you just have to reward yourself,” he said. At a guess if he'd hodled he would be a multi millionaire by now. Maybe I won't be getting a lambo after all. I registered here in 2011 after discovering I could play poker for bitcoin. I have sold little bits to do things like take a trip with my wife. But ultimately I have bought the dips enough to replace those sold coins. Part of it is my ethos. I do not really need all that much stuff. In fact in the end I just might make all of you richer. “Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.” -somebody important I accepted long ago I will either be a genius for holding, or a fool. We will see. |
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In the 70ies, there were at least 3 peaks and valleys in inflation.
I expect us getting down now to 3-4% area, then re-igniting again; we should be done by the end of the decade.
Max (official) inflation could be anywhere between 10 and 15%...eventually, but before this , I expect a bit of QE pumpage (maybe in 2023, but most likely in the first half of 2024).
All of this should help btc in 2024.
I think you would be right if this were the 70s. And you may STILL be right. But in my opinion this is an attempt at a controlled demolition of western (and world?) economies. I do not know if it will work. They tried it in the 70s and failed... mostly. I am an optimist... so I think they will fail again. But one thing gives me pause. AI |
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