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601  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 10:10:11 AM
Just to remind you perma-bulls, this picture doesn't look good.




There is a chance that the new fiat will start panic buying, but I don't think we will be going over $380

602  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 09:34:25 AM

this is Bitstamp's cold storage address, they sent 5000 BTC to their hot wallet, seems someone want to withdraw that kind of BTC.


603  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 09:26:21 AM
Bitstamp is totally exhausted, I think there will be still some downtrend.
Everyone please ignore this idiot, I just did...

604  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 09:18:05 AM
Bitstamp is totally exhausted, I think there will be still some downtrend.

Perhaps.

From the tearing down of the 30,000BTC wall, it is clear that there is a huge demand from multiple buyers. From the pattern of buying, some of them buy little, others buy a lot.

But we need to bear in mind that we had gone down from $1,200 to $300. I am inclined to believe that this is the work of the minority, who might be manipulators.

Whether or not we continue the downtrend will depend on the plan of these manipulators.

The sale of that 35KBTC wasn't any kind of manipulation, a manipulator would put a wall and make others sell into his bids, but it was clear that this guy had no intention to buy, but he wanted to get the hell out....now, enough money has to be wired to build up the broken support otherwise the weekly and daily dumpers have a very thin bid book all over other exchanges, but the thinnest is at Bitstamp, this was clearly resulted by people cancelling their bids and buying into the wall.

At the moment it is not yet clear what will exactly happen, it is the start of the week, we will see how much money will be wired and if people will want to instantly buy or put their bids into the book.
605  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 08:34:23 AM
Bitstamp is totally exhausted, I think there will be still some downtrend.
606  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 08:00:09 AM
There's less than 30k bitcoins to $3000 on stamp.


Are you serious ?   Cheesy  we never look at the ask side because always, and I mean always when the price go a bit up new asks shows up, simply because people are not comfortable leaving their coins on an exchange, they send them when they see a good opportunity to sell.

in the other side we look at bids because sending money to an exchange is not that fast.
607  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 07:42:18 AM
the easiest $400 I ever made.... now watching if price will continue the downtrend.

BTW: seems that people cancelled their bids and bought into that wall, because look how thin the bid side looks like now @ Bitstamp.
608  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 07:09:23 AM
Good morning this looks bullish.
609  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2014, 10:23:42 PM
I mean how many 1TH/s miners does one think they can plug into a typical 200A house panel?
Sure there may be larger mining facilities out there but they have higher overheads.

There are bigger ones:
http://virtualmining.com/secret-bitcoin-mine-chinese-facility-uses-boiling-liquid-to-cool-massive-computers-that-generate-bitcoins-photos/
(That is an old one, though.)

AFAIK thse large installations are still profitable, even with today's prices.  But the increase in total hashrate means less coins for the outfits that were already mining.

this exact mining operation is from ASICMINER, it is no more profitable for sure (they used 120nm chips, each board does max 13GHs) and I also believe it is already offline.... but there is for sure other old yet profitable mining operations out there.... the key to that is making your own chips to bring the production cost to as low as possible.

hint: bitfury average cost for their 55nm chips is around 1$ but they sold them for $120 each at one point. how cool is that ?
610  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: October 05, 2014, 10:15:29 PM
I think that most here don't understand the bitcoin price cycle vs bitcoin mining cycle. There are too many bitcoin miners, including industrial size, which mostly liquidate mined bitcoins. If situation of 2011 was to repeat itself, bitcoin price will have to move low enough for a crash in network mining capability (which is still increasing as we speak at a brisk 20% rate every 12 days even with this crash). Only if and when network hashing stabilizes or reduces about ~50% (as in 2011), the new bull market will ensue. Prediction: it will happen in the next 2-4 mo, but the price might have to go much lower first (exact repeat of 2011 will mean ~$72/BTC).
Personally, I stopped buying mining equipment already.

The noobs here don't understand that mining is irrelevant for price. It is the preference to hold more or hold less, that makes the price. You have yesterdays price and other peoples valuations, there is nothing that connects bitcoin value to eartly stuff. Deal with it.





So what is the *real* thing that give the value to bitcoin  Cheesy ?


price discovery is defined by supply and demand.... BTW even if miners stop selling for a whole year the fact that there is still 13 million Bitcoin in circulation while the bookorders of all exchanges combined make less than 100K BTC in the best case, and if we talk fiat, last time I checked (today) the book orders combined doesn't make more than $15 million .... is just scary.
611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2014, 09:41:25 PM
Even if the wall were eaten, its just going to deplete the market of a huge chunk of money. If its fake? Well.. that seems unlikely considering they are old coins.

It's most likely somebody waiting for fiat to arrive at the exchange to buy more coins (it's fake)


Right, a guy who bought 40000 coins at $9-$11 and hasnt done anything but sell since is going to put a bunch of money in BTC now at $300? Get a grip.

http://bbsimg.ngfiles.com/10/22212000/ngbbs4d0fde07b68f4.jpg[/img]

How do you know he bought at $9-$11?

https://blockchain.info/address/159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq?filter=0

35,000 btc received on 2013-04-03 20:12:49

Comes from:

https://blockchain.info/address/19Gt9VKmmyMpMHEv6dkf8ddwmwddoSoJ8w 

( transactions in 2012)

What was the price in September 2012?

I say he wants to cash out, there is no incoming btc in 2014 in those address..

highest price in sept of 2012 was 125


nope that was September 2013, September 2012 price was less than $10
612  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2014, 09:21:51 PM
So do you still belive it is manipulation ? that 28K BTC order there doesn't confirm the validity of this theory, beside where are the buying walls that this manipulator is setting if he is really buying instead of selling ?

I think we will be visiting 100-150 in the next few weeks... it stinks so much, and it stinks more when you see the large holders and early adopters crying and reminding everyone how great Bitcoin is, it only help their desperation...
613  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: October 05, 2014, 06:22:07 PM


What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

Exchanges maintain a Data base and not the coins, what you demand is not a safe practice, a safe practic would be exactly what most exchanges are doing now, you deposit your funds they have your address on watch, when you get 3 confirmations (or 6 depends on the exchange) they input an entry to the database (or alter it) changing your old balance to your new one.... all the coins are offline and safe from heist.


anything else would be asking for trouble and can make management of funds and technical more complicated.

The exact mechanism does NOT matter too much, but what Otoh and others seem to be proposing are mechanism upon which to audit exchanges or at least prevent them from (or lessen the likelihood that they can) engaging in variations of fractional reserve banking (or misrepresenting the number of coins that they actually hold).  If one system does NOT work then better to figure another system that can work to achieve such objectives... to work towards positive potential solutions rather than just asserting that won't work.

There is something of that kind suggested for development, it is called pooled reserves, but I doubt it will ever come to real world adoption.
614  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2014, 06:18:25 PM
cheap coins  Grin


For a brief moment I started thinking " ok maybe this is the bottom" but then I went  to twitter and saw the fucking cultist shitting their pants, I visit the main sub and I see early adopters crying on this forum, and for this exact reason I am not buying yet.

615  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2014, 05:47:39 PM
I think the fear has reached an extreme far higher than anything in 2014 yet. People (including me) are talking about getting back to work, putting castles for sale, and the price reaching $100-$200 in a matter of weeks.

Typically, extreme fear is associated with prices that in nearly all timeframes provide far above-average returns. Unlike most extreme fear situations, the one in Bitcoin now is very easy to capitalize on, because bitcoins can easily be bought 24/7.

Even if buying more is not a realistic option due to the portfolio already being heavy in BTC, selling is generally not warranted unless you want to be one of those taken advantage of.

When you think about it, Bitcoin is a real threat to economy in a given society, when the value goes up that fast ( as you claim it will) many people will be leaving their daily productive jobs.... and when thinking about mass adoption I start thinking about a bunch of greedy lazy bastards.... this surely will result to the collapse of that society.


Thankfully, after being home for 7 months now, I started looking for a job.
616  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: October 05, 2014, 05:33:49 PM


What BTC ETFs like COIN and other BTC investment funds need to do is to guarantee and show allocated coins, every client's holding is stored on their own individual publicly published and viewable address, rather than pooled in the total holdings account as happens on exchanges, this is like the best practice of PM funds like www.bullionvault.com except miles better as anyone can instantly see and prove that the funds are actually allocated to the clients rather than just take the business's and auditor's word for it.

Exchanges maintain a Data base and not the coins, what you demand is not a safe practice, a safe practic would be exactly what most exchanges are doing now, you deposit your funds they have your address on watch, when you get 3 confirmations (or 6 depends on the exchange) they input an entry to the database (or alter it) changing your old balance to your new one.... all the coins are offline and safe from heist.


anything else would be asking for trouble and can make management of funds and technical more complicated.
617  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2014, 05:27:05 PM
Have the Winklis ever published their wallet adress?
(Bullish tinfoil hat on)
They might want to buy more "cheap" before the ETF starts, to add it to the ETF before the starting amount is exhausted(which would probably happen after a few weeks/months of trading). So they could probably be secretly building up a reserve.
How many coins have they officially bought last year? 100-200k?


Don't forget, at this point holders of big amounts of Bitcoins are shitting their pants, I wouldn't be surprised if they perform a last time try to pump their investment in order to save it before going into longer bearish market.... take anything anyone says at this point with a grain of salt.


618  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2014, 05:24:01 PM


His investment just went down by $20,000,000 and he says this? Grin


he is still way up, way than you can even imagine.
619  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2014, 05:02:07 PM
I think that the one who had that 30K BTC and sold into that 5K BTC wall is a legit seller and not a manipulator.... the minute he saw that Bid wall he saw a chance to sell off some of his stash and he did put the ask wall thinking that someone will eat into it.

 Roll Eyes

Ok, so why did he remove it after a short while if he is a legit sell, and build up that 8000BTC bid wall....
and why didnīt he slowly sell out over all exchanges distributed.
Sorry but your explanation is highly unlikely.

There is a big possibility that he is verified only at Bitstamp (in instance I am verified only at stamp), the other possibility is him selling for the available 5KBTC and watching if anyone is prepared to buy his stash which eventually failed, and I think he did remove that Bid wall to not cause more panic.... after all, I think he still interested in selling even more, we will see how things develop when more bids build up.
There is also the possibility that the 5k wall was his, and that he sold into it.

also possible, lets see how things develop, maybe this will turn to be something bullish after all.
620  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2014, 04:59:21 PM
I think that the one who had that 30K BTC and sold into that 5K BTC wall is a legit seller and not a manipulator.... the minute he saw that Bid wall he saw a chance to sell off some of his stash and he did put the ask wall thinking that someone will eat into it.

 Roll Eyes

Ok, so why did he remove it after a short while if he is a legit sell, and build up that 8000BTC bid wall....
and why didnīt he slowly sell out over all exchanges distributed.
Sorry but your explanation is highly unlikely.

There is a big possibility that he is verified only at Bitstamp (in instance I am verified only at stamp), the other possibility is him selling for the available 5KBTC and watching if anyone is prepared to buy his stash which eventually failed, and I think he did remove that Bid wall to not cause more panic.... after all, I think he still interested in selling even more, we will see how things develop when more bids build up.
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