The volatility IMO is due entirely to the hard fork. A big player (likely miner) sold at 450 because they know what is coming.
The most obvious explanation is Mike's ragequit, which got wide exposure in the media (NYT, Motherboard, TechCrunch, Reuters, ...) It was also commented in Chinese forums. I can't think of any other suiltable explanation for the sudden drop. After all this time, prof Stolfi hasn't learned TA. Mike's drama made the drop deeper, but it was coming anyway. |
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No, this massive drop is part of a complex correction, which IMO is not over.
I am expecting certain rebounds, but certainly not a new rally, and the market to make lower lows during the next 30 days.
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Three days ago price was around 445$, plenty of time for reasonable traders to exit their longs. Lazy-whale oda.krell, are you still long?  |
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With the latest dumps, daily MACD crossed to negative on all exchanges, including mainland Chinese ones.
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I see people blaming Mike Hearn and his ramblings for the dumps, but IMO it's all the work of the Chinese manipulators.
A week ago they painted the tape with the pump that seemed to break the triple top, encouraging bidders on western
exchanges to build up their bids, but now that the uptrend was obviously exhausted, they decided to dump (mainly not in China),
and perform the capital transfer out of mainland China with a profit, while it's still possible.
Oh, and daily MACD is very close to crossing to negative, so new longs should be carefully taken.
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This makes me feel sorry I didn't max my short, maybe I'll get another chance on the rebound tomorrow morning...  Do you remember Jan.14.2015? I don't understand the relevance, but I do remember, I closed my short at 178.7$, not optimal... shrug... Well, as a permabull my little worry is that we had a finex crash both in aug 2014 and aug 2015. So, since Bitcoin is mostly for speculation atm, there might be unease in the market about jan 2016. An unease that someone easily could take advantage of. I seriously doubt that we'll see anything like a 50% drop, but 10-15% shouldn't be impossible. For comparison I am not looking at January or August, I am looking at 17 - 18 March 2015, but with market movements taking 2 - 3 times longer. |
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This makes me feel sorry I didn't max my short, maybe I'll get another chance on the rebound tomorrow morning... Do you remember Jan.14.2015? I don't understand the relevance, but I do remember, I closed my short at 178.7$, not optimal... shrug... |
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This makes me feel sorry I didn't max my short, maybe I'll get another chance on the rebound tomorrow morning... |
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support here at 1900
Well, I feel a bit bullish, so IMO support first at 2100 CNY, then later at 1400 CNY. Still would fit in a larger bullish trend. |
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Nice spike in BDD...  |
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What's the big deal here? Shorts went up about 6k on the 26th, then about 4k got closed next days, and I had my tiny contribution to this normal market movement. I find more suspicious how OKCoin dropped so much on relatively little volume. And I might short again soon, hoping to close around 380$. |
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Guys the trading isn't going so well anymore. I'm quitting again, probably permanently this time. I can't predict crap anymore, I can't tell what the hell is going on with these Chinese exchanges which I thought should have been irrelevant by now, the fees are too high, the liquidity is too low, I can't use stops properly, and I can't even trust the exchanges. Also I can't even post in this forum without eliciting negative responses everyone when I'm only trying to contribute.
Also just like when I traded bitcoin years ago it's giving me terrible anxiety, sleep deprivation, health effects, and reducing my job performance. So I'm cutting my losses early this time.
I'm dividing my remaining coins up 30% fiat and 70% btc and withdrawing again, because I spent all the fiat from last time so I'm too heavily weighted in bitcoin. This way, I can have peace of mind in order to do another full btc information blackout.
See you guys again when I check the price again in 6 months or a year or so. In the meantime if you want to see me, you can find me at a 2/5 or 5/10 holdem table where at least I can have fun while I'm gambling.
When you came back I told you that China is still ruling this party... I can reasonably predict moves but they tend to happen around 4 am to 6 am, while I'm sleeping... If you keep 70% in BTC and come back 6 months later, you may find out a price below 200$, if the Chinese fiat dries out in the meantime... |
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Damn... The Chinese again started a crash while I was asleep... Waited until 3.30 am for it, but they do it at 5.30, grrr...  |
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Depends on the price of crude oil. If the price stays low for another 2 - 3 years, Russia's economy will collapse, and Putin will have to flee or be killed.
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...
I'm surprised you're actually still trading on Bitfinex. It has more problems that MtGox had.
I have a Kraken account, but am not currently using it. The level of complaints about reliability seems higher for Kraken... |
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I think this has hit the bottom and it is time for a nice fat bounce. Some traders will have hard time to cover their shorts on Bitfinex.
not much shorts to cover I tried to close my short, but something is wrong at Bitfinex, didn't properly execute, so my profit is diminishing. Also doesn't look right at Bitcoinwisdom. Not the only exchange that is misbehaving today.... was locked out of both Huobi and Kraken as the obvious precipice approached. Actually it executed at the right price, but didn't show up for several minutes. And now it's kicking again at Bitcoinwisdom. |
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I think this has hit the bottom and it is time for a nice fat bounce. Some traders will have hard time to cover their shorts on Bitfinex.
not much shorts to cover I tried to close my short, but something is wrong at Bitfinex, didn't properly execute, so my profit is diminishing. Also doesn't look right at Bitcoinwisdom. |
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6h PSAR flipped to bearish on western exchanges, but not yet in China. Update: flipped in China too, although BTCChina is a bit more bearish that Huobi or OKCoin. Bitfinex managed to flip the 1d PSAR to bearish, nice!  Update2:daily PSAR flipped at BTCChina too, picture below to show the importance.  |
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