and instead of leaning what was stifling BITCOIN progress. where you would know the solution is actually in scaling BITCOIN(increase onchain transaction average). but you instead avoided learning about the technical stuff, heck you avoided learning what a full nodes functions consist of. you just leaped straight to idolising LN and propagandising flaws of bitcoin like it cant scale, wont scale.

heck you dont even know all the LN flaws, so instead shy away from mentioning LN flaws just to over promote it as what "everyone" "most" "everybody" should/does use... sorry but its not the case


..
there is a big difference between these two narratives
LN is the solution to bitcoin scaling everyone should use
vs
LN is a choice option anyone can use
..
the first is like saying bitcoins problems are solved and no bitcoin adjustments need to be made because people will use LN instead.

the second is that options are open. but that BITCOIN still needs more work done on and for the bitcoin network to scale BITCOIN

first you seemed a little open minded. like it was an option.


see your progression from mentioning flaws of bitcoin without a solution and saying lightning is not a solution for everyone..
..to then go full on LN loyalist mode, saying things like:



LN does not scale bitcoin. LN takes people away from using the bitcoin network.
your advert is like saying exchange custodians scales bitcoin network.. but we all know that is not true. because those using custodial wallets are not even touching the bitcoin network.

if you think that stagnating and immobilising a limit that causes a backlog of transaction delays is solved by removing users. then you are missing the cause of the problem that needs to be addressed

then stop with the adverts that bitcoin is broke and the solution everyone should use is LN

atleast tweak your adverts to be an 'option'(niche usecase) instead of pretending its the default end goal for everyones daily utility.

EG if your saying 'bitcoin doesnt need to scale because LN is here' is more so an advert saying people should stop wanting to use bitcoin often and use an altnet instead.

its not an advert saying people can choose. its more like 'heres the exit, the only way to go'

..
also when it comes to these 'hubs' and channel partners.. explain the disadvantages and limits. stop trying to utopianise offchain niche services

many people want to hold exchange MySQL balance and trade tokens on MySQL databases thinking they are 'owning bitcoin' but they dont care about maintaining the network, nor care about the 'not my keys, not my coin' stuff, heck they dont even know or care that what they are trading is a different token and not a blockchain confirmed(settled) transaction

same goes for LN.. people using a phone app to buy chewing gum. they dont care about being full nodes(validation AND archiving) they just want to have an account which allows them to move value. no matter the format of the value. and not really think about the security lacking in using such 'easy/fast' option.
yep no one is going to carry around a laptop and sync the blockchain just to validate a channel is real(still open) when just wanting to buy a coffee on an offchain. they will just 'trust' that everything is fine and hope the partner is amicable and honest.

bitcoin does not need to leap to the propagandised 100mb blocks to meet offchain demand. because offchain demand is no where near it. bitcoin however should not be hindered, restricted, stagnated to prevent some scaling (incremental) increases of transaction count possibilities. but that hindering so far has not been based on some technical reason that would break bitcoin. but on political reason to promote other networks as solutions. .. the old 'blockchains are broke use non blockchain solutions' lame advert

there are many reasons people dont choose BCH. such as its technical team(lack of), its not having a wide array of merchant acceptance. and even is lack of fundamental value.

the funny thing is that getting people away from using the bitcoin network and into using altnets or custodian served litewallet apps is going to cause more people to drop from being bitcoin network maintainers(full nodes(validate and archive)). far more so than the 1990's hardware propaganda reasons.

you can spot these people wanting less bitcoin network maintainers, not only do they promote altnets as utopia and bitcoin as broke. but also they try to tell bitcoin maintainers(full nodes(validate and archive)) that the 'archive' part is redundant(facepalm), even go as far as saying that upgrading to remain validation completeness is redundant, 'coz backward compatibility'(facepalm).. yet the fail to convey the actual security and feature of why full validation and archiving is important backbone to the network. and fail to explain how UN-upgraded nodes are not true full nodes as they are handed stripped data and put on a lesser level, but deceived as being told they are 'full nodes' even when not using their deceptive methods of understating what "backward compatibility" actually results in and what pruned actually lessens the features available of.

bitcoin core is the default central reference. pretty much all proposals and code changes happen with them.

there is no clear platform for 'outsiders' to see current progress of things in plain english and in a clear list of progress.

usually new proposals are chatted about in the development and technical subcategory of this forum and then on IRC bitcoin developer room. once something seems plausible/useful its then mentioned more formally in the developer mailing list where it gets more formal consideration/critique. and then becomes a bip on the bitcoin core github. where it goes through a few more rounds of chatting and tweaking. and if still found to be useful/plausible then it moves into being made into code for a RC(release candidate) bitcoin core update

this has more potential than just street performing(off-camera). it has far greater reach and also is one step closer to having a portal people can use to make a payment.

the crypto market has not lost any capitalisation..
the market caps are not a measure of fiat reserves held to back any asset. its just a multiplication of a current price.

2 people can easily affect this.
heck i can make an altcoin of 1trillion coins and sell just 1 coin for $1 and create $1trillion market cap.

no one cares about market cap numbers. they are meaningless.

..
there is no 'over sold' because again it has nothing to do with accumulated sales that meet some big number of sells. its just a single price multiplied.

so chill out and relax, there was no loss, there was no over selling.
the market cap stat is not a stat of value. its a empty stat of multiplication

right now there are traders that only need to buy/sell 0.01btc ($350) and can cause a shift the price by $3 which thrn multiplies the math to shift the market cap of bitcoin by $57million

yep someone can affect bitcoins market cap by $57million by only spending $350

kind of weird for some to think a maximalist is someone that never sells, but believes in the properties of bitcoin..
..
um for it to be a decentralised currency it needs to be used as a currency (spent)

americans can be a dollar maximalist by just not accepting euro's.. but it does not mean they can never spend a dollar.

a maximalist just doesnt bother caring about other currencies. it does not mean they dont spend their favourite currency

buy the dip not the hype

dont listen to people that talk about fear, they have a one-sided view.
hype 'fear of missing out'
dip 'hoarders fear'

rational minds though
hype=buyers wait for correction
dip=buyers reward

hype=sellers reward
dip=sellers hoard time

im a hoarder since 2012, but i dont just hold, i also have a side 'play money' amount which i sell a small % on the significant rises..
and i buy back on the dips.

not mentioning hoard numbers, but lets use the play money example, lets say i added another 1btc when price was $20k, and when it significantly rose to $67k first ath i sold 0.3 for $20k ($66k rate for 1btc as it started to creep down).
then when it reached $40k i bought 0.5 with the same fiat.

meaning i now have 1.2btc in one pot of play money, paid for with only $20k expense.

my matrix quote would be
Do not try and spend all the spoon—that's impossible. Instead, only try to realize the truth.. spend part of a spoon to make more spoons

the quick rise from $20k to $69k was externally driven... the correction to $34k is as said the correction

the price is volatile but the bottomline value(not price) rises at a slower and supported rate. and no where was $69k price deemed as a stable price that should have remained

2021 value was $20k support value, 2022 value support is $30k

anything above these are speculative premium that can go up and down

there is no 'fear index'

its just a chart that shows greed in one direction and 'fear' in the other

/\

but here is the thing
for every seller there is a buyer.
so on the same updown. the buyers are the opposite
/\

one persons reduction \ is another persons discount
one persons premium / is another persons profit

and when it comes to sellers. not everyone bought above $35k so not all sellers are upset/afraid

i wouldnt call it a fear index. id call it an impatience index for those selling when prices are low.

what you do learn though is all the people that bought in previous years at $6-$20k that are selling for $35k. they are all happy.
and the new owners are at $35k and fresh, and willing to hoard for a longer period meaning the sentiment becomes stronger as a support above $20k to become a support above $30k
the more that bought below $20k and sell above $30k resets the $20k support to become $30k thus help prevent the price dipping below $30k because too many have bought and refuse to sell at a loss. and too many value it at $30k+ plus to want to buy more while its cheap.

the price drop is not FEAR, its impatience for those that seen the $69k ATH but cant wait around for support bottoms to catch up to the speculation numbers above it

when the price goes up it always comes down

there are so many waves you will always find a combination that matches more then once

\
  \    /\_
    \/     \/\

especially if there is like 8 other peaks between the 4peak pattern. making it a 1/3 chance

but this silly pattern 'trend analysis' is meaning less. its more so fulfilling prophecy rather then predicting anything
if enough bots are programmed to trade in a pattern if the price dips more then 10%.. guess what. the bots are the ones then causing the pattern

however if you look at a more outside view of just imagining a price line. you can start to see more things.

just looking at the price line. you could the market 'bottom' (lowest price of last month, 3 month, 12 month) and then whatever the price is today you can see if its near those bottoms or up high. meaning you can see if something is cheap or premium (value or overvalued)

you can also make a better value window. by looking at things not found in the market price.
things like the mining cost from cheapest on the planet to most expensive.  and you will find when putting the charts together the price no matter what it is fits inside the value window. its no surprise.

here is my recent example
yep its much better then drawing arrows on price charts. as its actually using statists not found in price but explain alot about the economics at play.

he knows a bit more then you think. he is already looking into repealing the NY bitlicence. so he knows about the laws hindering bitcoin innovation in NYC
he also know about the mining side of things.

im not fan waving his salary announcement. thats just side drama stuff and not as important as the 'NY becoming bitcoin innovation centre' announcement.

but those saying he might regret it, as if he has no other income or savings. pfft. the guy is not poor. he has $2-$3m net worth
so $21k a month for 3 months is not that much to miss.

i am a little bit more critical about his republican aspects and that he wrote a book about herbal medicine (which gives me a few doubts about his decision making)

bitcoins price might learn to settle down at the $1m/btc level. this is because of 2 things

1.
bitcoin 2010 value: $0.10
bitcoin 2011 value: $32max (+319x)
bitcoin 2013 value: $1200 max (+36.5x)
bitcoin 2017 value: $20,000 max (+15.6x)
bitcoin 2021 value: $67,000 max (+2.35x)
in short the multiplier per ATH cycle gets less and less per cycle


im going to hazard a rational guess of (halving the multiplier)
2024 value at 1.2x of recent ATH so $70k * 1.2+(last ath) =$154k
2028 value at 0.6x of recent ATH so $154k * 0.6.+(last ath) =$246k
2032 value at 0.3x of recent ATH so $246k * 0.3+(last ath) =$319k
so i guess by his 12th birthday the $100 will be just over $900

2. bitcoin is actually measured in sat amounts. where most economists think that $1 would equate to 100sat at the best settled level, to allow accounting of 1cent=1sat minimal value swap

this means that 100sat =$1 and 1btc=$1m

so if you invested $100 yesterday at $35k guessing that you got ~0.00286. if bitcoin settles at $1m/btc then that 0.00286 would be worth $2860
of which, from you admissions of your local economy, is about 28months of salary.

that said. these numbers are very downplayed numbers for rational thought. not exaggerated hope numbers.
however i do not think we have yet to see the tip of this latest cycle(+2.35 seems small. maybe it can extend to 7.x),
and can probably see a 7.2x of previous $20k ($144k)
and can probably see a 3.6x of previous $144k ($518k)
and can probably see a 1.8x of previous $518k ($933k)

meaning your nephew might have his 0.00286 worth $2668 on his 12th birthday
so expect anything from 900 conservative to 2500+ hope

bitcoin does have a fixed supply but this fixed supply wont actually be realised (felt) for another 120 years.

in 2012 there were 11million coins and exchanges had order lines of 1-1000coins thick.
in 2022 there are 19million coins. which means more coins in circulation. yet exchanges are not seeing order lines of 1.7-1700 thick.

instead what you find is that people still on average only want to regularly buy bitcoin in minnow orders of $400-$600 and whale orders of $40m-$60m. peoples fiat disposable income has not changed.

what has changed is instead of using the supply/demand of there being more coins now than previous years in circulation. bitcoiners actually went the opposite direction. they prevented themselves from crashing the market by offering more coin. and instead started 'drip-feeding' orders to meet the demand.

this is why even though there are 1.7x more supply in circulation. bitcoin sellers are only feeding the market with 100x less supply per order to meet the demand.(0.017-10btc order thickness)

i personally have alot more coins now than i did in 2012. but the amount of coin i drip feed into an exchange is alot less than i did in 2012. because if i used the same volume as 2012 or even the same % of hoard. id crash the market

yes right now we are not 'feeling' the limited supply because we are still experiencing more coins being made.

if the average minnow buyer is only investing say $600 a month. but the bitcoin mining is netting $882m of 'new asset' every month. then the circulation supply is increasing to allow 1.47m new minnows to join bitcoin without causing any 'supply' bottlenecks of the circulation allotment.

yes bitcoins supply limit is a great economic rule. but its just not something being felt yet.

what is being felt. is not the '21m coin rule' but instead the halving of mining per 4 year rule(in laymans)

mining pools get half as many coins, but are not going to half their efforts to mine to match half of the reward.
instead they continue competing for the share of the reward, and because its less, they demand more $$ for the less amount.

bitcoins price is more influenced on the 'never sell for less than it cost to acquire' more so than a 'supply/demand' based on a 21m cap rule

https://twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/1484327237612494853

im not interested in his income. thats more of a small side show advert. what im more interested in is that he said he wants to repeal the NY Bitlicence and allow NY businesses to just get started offering bitcoin based services without the hurdles to jump through

to be frank,
busking for bitcoin is like busking for euro in london.
ofcourse 99% of londonders have never touched or used the euro. but busking isnt going to be a reason people decide to finally try and get some euro.

some people might look twice and wonder why your asking for euro instead of pounds. but it isnt something that will make them want to convert pounds to euro's just to donate to a street performer.

if you were to join a band and then say 'hey guys, here's an idea' lets not take pounds, and instead ask for a currency 99% of people dont have, just to promote the currency'.. the band will say 'nah, lets promote the band instead, in london using the currency london uses'.

imagine if oxfam done a tv advert in the UK but instead of asking for £3 a month. they said 'please send 202.37 ETB' (ethiopian birr) you would see far far far less donations come in.

i think seeing bitcoin talked about in TV shows and movies has some influence to stick in peoples minds that its a usable currency. but not really something that makes people want to just exchange fiat for it.

other idea's i have seen around the world that have helped with adoption.
when buying a product people get 'loyalty rewards' of x % put into a address they can claim.

heck even NFT are the new hot thing due to "play to earn" gaming in meta.
however if ariana grande done her fortnite concert in bitcoin, she would have earned alot less and had alot less attendee's

yea governments and utility companies should not be in the business of telling people:
to 'turn down their heating and insteadsnuggle a pet to stay warm'.
to unplug their TV's at the wall socket instead of putting them on standby

and instead should make power plants/utility companies incentivized to upgrade to keep up with capacity.

one issue with utility companies is the cost of electric. back in the days of only 1-2 utility companies serving an entire nation meant that the 'bidding' of allotments of twh's was highly strengthened by just 2 companies buying thw from the grid and these bulk contracts meant better deals. but now with dozens of utility companies. its diluted their buying strength, and also sucks more of the bills 'profits' into the utility company admin offices. rather then going more direct to power plants.

governments should try getting the money to power plants so they can upgrade to renewables faster. rather then letting utility companies keep the profits and tell customers to switch devices off

short answer is. if binance has very very little amount of traders. then a big trader can dump all the orders down without very much spent.

and yes that chart is using a 'view' not of 1btc value but say 0.01 value, which means
AUD: 499 - 5.7 (0.01btc view)  = AUD: 49999 - 570 (1btc view)  = USD: $35.8k - $409 (1btc view)
yep a steep drop from ~$36k to $0.4k (ouch for sellers, but great discount for a lucky buyer)

this is another reason why central walls street stock markets are not volatile. because millions of people are putting large orders in so the price can only move by penny amounts as the 'wall' is soo deep

but because there are dozens of exchanges meaning the pool of a few hundred thousand traders are diluted to a few dozen thousand traders per exchange. then diluted again per currency paid(USD, AUD, USDT, USDC) this makes the market order 'walls' thin.

simple numbers
EG if there were 120 traders per orderline selling 0.01btc but having to sell on one central exchange. each orderline would be 1.2btc deep
but if there were 24 exchanges meaning only 5 traders per exchange then it not only would be 0.05 deep. but someone can easily eat up several price points with just 0.5btc

demo example:

populated exchange                                diluted exchange
$35,800.00     1.2btc                              $35,800.00     0.05btc  
$35,799.99     1.2btc                              $35,079.95     0.05btc
$35.799.98     1.2btc                              $34.699.98     0.05btc
                                                              ...22 orders later.....
                                                             $409.99         0.05btc

as you can see on populated exchange someone buying 1.2btc will only shift the price by 1cent
as you can see on diluted exchange someone buying 0.15btc will shift the price by $1100
as you can see on diluted exchange someone buying 1.2btc will shift the price by $thousands($35.4k dump in example)

..
back in the days. when there was only 3 main exchanges and just all arbitraging one currency pair. the 'walls' were 1000btc deep per orderline. with 1cent intervals. but now its like 0.01btc deep with upto $3 intervals on the popular exchanges.
the intervals are worse on the even more unpopular exchanges

your screen shot shows how lacking it is of order amounts. it only needed $16,000(AUD) to drop the price 499 to 5.7 on that market pair