well 50% of all channels had a max capacity of ~$200
so even without crying about exact stats of how many micropayents..
you know for sure that there were bottlenecks of anyone trying to spend more then $200 in one go
and if say average was $2 spend per payment. 50% would have had to close and re-org their funds after just 100 payments

think of it this way

Alice [$4000><$200] bob [$200><$200] chuck [$200><$200] Dave [$200><$200]starbucks
alice might be in the top 10% with $4k... but do you think she will ever get to spend her $4k without closing

imagine scenarios.
dave has made 10 payments for himself of $4 each for HIS starbucks
Alice [$4000><$200] bob [$200><$200] chuck [$200><$200] Dave [$160><$240]starbucks
chuck done the same
Alice [$4000><$200] bob [$200><$200] chuck [$160><$240] Dave [$120><$280]starbucks
bob done the same
Alice [$4000><$200] bob [$160><$240] chuck [$120><$280] Dave [$80><$320]starbucks

now how much can alice spend if she was a caffiene addict
trust me.. its not $4k .. its not $200..
ill give you a hint.. its only $80

some might say $80 is still good
but now your forgetting the reality that
bob doesnt just have alice and chuck as partners. 'others' may use bob to route to starbucks. thus diluting the dave outbound to starbucks even more

chuck doesnt just have bob and dave as partners. 'others' may use chuck to route to starbucks. thus diluting the dave outbound starbucks even more

..
point being if you know that 50% of the network only has $200 capacity..
then you can work out that alot of outbounds are going to get exhausted very quickly
(average $2 payment = exhausted in 100 payments)
(average $4 payment = exhausted in 50 payments)
(average $8 payment = exhausted in 25 payments)
(average $20 payment= exhausted in 10 payments)

you can also work out if you know it will cost about $3 lock-in and $3 unlock of a onchain fee..
thats $6 of the $200 the people will want to recoup even to allow their balance to be used by others
so you can work out that as a minimum break even (logic/common sense) they are going to charge 3% fee
($6 of $200=3%)

heck.. you can then do some math. if you know the average is 3 hops to the destination
you can work out that it ends up costing the spender 9% (3% per hop)
so you start to get a picture about how expensive it is within LN compared to just buying coffee onchain vs buying a single $80 giftcard via fiat

so yea there is alot you can learn from knowing what the majority of the networks channel liquidity is. even without knowing each precise payment

heck if you know that some 'lightning pizza' promotion is being done for $25 of pizza
you know that the network will start showing massive amounts of payment failures within 8 payments along routes
('fold' lightning pizza' experiment had 90% payment failure rate)
https://decrypt.co/5321/folds-bitcoin-lightning-pizza-turns-out-to-have-been-a-success

i dont care if you.. or badecker, tvbcof, jetcash and tash themselves dont want a vaccine

its the mis-info they are promoting to OTHERS thats the issue
its that that the 4 main idiots are trying too hard to get a whole population to avoid medical care.

they are promoting scammy herbal alternatives without understanding what the alternatives do
they are ignoring facts about how mRNA work. ignoring facts and real statistics to fake some conspiracy fear that everyone should avoid hospitals and just die at home "coz natural"

total capacity is meaningless, much like bitcoins market cap is meaningless
as it doesnt show actual utility

EG. i have no intent on spending anything for next 6 months. but i could. if i wanted to bloat up the total capacity by multiples of current total capacity. by just locking alot of my coin to LN and doing absolutely nothing with it

..
a better metric to follow is the average capacity per channel
because then you can see the potential liquidity amount of what payment routes could achieve
(EG the success rate of payments)
50% of network only has $200 liquidity per channel
(success rate is low for weekly rent/grocery payments but ok for coffee and gum)
 
in short
it doesnt matter if the network say its has 1 million bitcoin.... because payments are only a regular success for chewing cum amounts

i edited it to clear up any misunderstanding

im comparing bitcoin to dollars.. and paypal to sidechains/altnets like LN
im comparing altcoin to euro.. and venmo to an altcoin sidechain/altnet

after all.. would you use paypal if it cost you $80 to deposit/withdraw
would you even still favour the dollar if every bank transfer cost you $80
or would you move to another altcoin/service that only charges €1($1.2)
proclaiming the dollar is a dead currency due to fees

..
back to my point
at the moment pools are considering fee's asn an acceptable 0.5 bonus to their 6.25 income
meaning that the 0.5 fee total ($15k split over the average 2500tx stifled limit) means average cost per transaction is $6.

but when that $15k acceptable bonus for pools is a required $200k main subsidy.
then its $80

however. allowing 10k transactions without the math cludge of the /4 wall
today thats $1.50 and in future thats $20

in short..
more transactions per block = less people pay individually

the main problem with not increasing the blocksize*. is that the limited transactions allowed end up covering all the mining costs

EG if it cost $200k to mine a block. and there are only allowed 2500 transactions.
then each transaction ends up costing $80
where as letting say 10,000 transactions by removing the cludgy math of the /4 wall.. means transactions could be diluted to $20. while still allowing the new dev sought data limit of 4mb acceptance

keeping the capacity(the real politics) at ~2500 just makes for the argument of "onchain fees are high, so use an altnet"
yet
users would not want to pay $80 to be able to lock an asset.. release an asset for/from another network

thus.. those proposing the onchain stifling end up shooting themselves in the foot

after all. if paypal offered payments for microcents of all dollarfiat payments..  but said it will charge $80 per deposit and $80 per withdrawal if people use the dollar with them.
people will just use vinmo measured in euro. and convert to dollar elsewhere
or
would convert dollar to euro and then deposit with paypal who charge a $1 deposit $1 withdrawal through paypal
thus no one uses dollar in paypal

the other silly economic politics is:
"reduce onchain utility 'coz average joe needs to store blockchain''
which is countered by
"offer custodial channels offchain 'coz average joe wont use fullnodes 24/7 for their once a year unlock'"
meaning average joe still are not adopting bitcoin full nodes. and all that are running full nodes become central custodians.. again self defeating the pretend purpose of their game

*for transaction count stagnation, not for silly political bloat of data excuses

the cludgy math to increase the data bloat.. did not result in an increase the transaction capacity. thus its "we increased the block size" missed the whole point of the real reason why the community wanted a blocksize increase

its like a woman asking for bigger pants so that when she gets pregnant she has room to comfortably incubate kids..
the husband gave her bigger pants but got a vasectomy to refuse to give her the kids she actually wants the pants for. oh and now he just wants to make her fat to fit into the pants. to then have an excuse to leave the wife for another woman


well you will now hear the conversative stagnators say
analogy
"cant do livestream on internet because 1999 floppy disks"

anyway..
back to the topic

.. where were we
oh yea "bitcoin energy disaster"

debunked:
1. if we remained solomining GPU. the electric combined from residents in their basements in non-renewable area's would he higher than the current state where most ASIC farms have great deals with renewable electric companies which the asic farms set up in those regions as far back as 2014

2. if asics themselves were not invented. then the watts/hash would be far far worse
asics evolve to be more efficient in power/watt

stompix. i was debunking YOU
YOUR version of the scenario where YOU provided limited scope of numbers
and then you went in 2 anal directions.
first sayin aggressively how im wrong becasue its 3 hours all year
then going opposite by showing the different production rates of 3 months
all without realising you were missing the general point

now please be a polite gentleman that does not want to be a drama queen about silly numbers you play hide and seek with
and just say
"ok i get the point. the CONTEXT is about capacity should always exceed demand. so that the excess can be stored"
and then move on
..
and no.. dont even start a new drama that people should never update their electrics in their house. or never update their central heating because "stompix says $6k is evil"

for people that do suffer from multiple day blackouts. they are willing and need to pay the money needed for the convenience.
i only suffer maybe 1 2 hour blackout a year when local maintenance is done or a bad storm so my convenience is valued at about $100 for 20 years

for areas with frequent more substantial issues
heck most companies would pay the initial outlay and then set a electric per kw rate so they get ROI
heck even governments do grants for the initial outlay of utility upgrades

vaccines work for the person vaccinated.
but for the unvaccined it only works if the rest get vaxxed for herd immunity so that the small% unvaxxed can remain unvaxxed

so thats the other thing
those unvaxxed should be celebrating that 150mill americans did get vaxxed. because it means they are being the herd immune which ends up protecting the unvaxxed idiots

however unvaxxed idiots wanting everyone to be unvaxxed= everyone gets higher risk of getting sick.. including the idiots that think they are immortal

more symantecs
oh and you can pass a port without a vaccine,
so your debate is now ended.

find something to talk about that is a reality right now
not iffy fantasy futures.. not misinformed history..

funny part about anti-lockdown protests..
is that people are not locked down as much as they cry about.. because they are free to go out of their houses to protest

many people i seen in this topic crying about lockdown say fantasies of
"no freedom"
"passports for grocery stores"
"cant go for walks"
"cant play golf"

funny part is there are alot of things you can do.
bus still run, trains still run. planes still fly
grocery stores are open
golf courses are still played on

the real hypocondriacs are the basement dwellers that never leave the house in any year and are now blaming covid lockdown as the recent medical reason why they fear going out.

in the last year. i stayed in the UK.
i use to travel on planes alot. but yea even i wasnt risking being sealed in a tin can with hundreds of other mouth breakers for 6-10 hours

but with that said, ive been to a bar, restaurant, grocery store,
drove a car outside my town. rode a bicycle, went on a boat, and a bus
i went in clothes stores, gadget stores diy stores

ive had fast food, ive had takaways, ive had ready meals and fine cuisine..
if been to farmers markets and food festivals

seems anyone crying about lockdown. dont actually realise what is available outside their basement

the public advert is "go to mars for science and exploration"
                             "bore holes under cities for trains"
                             "use AI driving for cars"
                             "use AI tracking for space debris of satelites"
                             "use AI+ spectrophotoscopy for medical scans"

the capitalist pamphlet is actually
R&D consumer projects. have consumers pay
then use the results to:
mine asteroids(boring), self track 'payload' vehicles(AI) to grab and transport spacerock(starship)
separate it into raremetals(AI+spectrophotometry)
deliver it back to earth
sell on the commodities market by then 200tonne

well not decades..
.. but then again we are talking about city planners. who if given authority to plan.. would take that long.
but practically it can be done in alot less time.
(see how fast california got all the covid testing and PPE.. .. months not decades)
they can create factories to produce a new product in months.. (vaccines, PPE , test kids, PCR labs)
so anythings possible

im pretty sure it doesnt take a decade to facilitate a new car design or a new washing machine design

..
again it doesnt have to be some super megawarehouse for the nation..
it can be city level battery farms each made concurrently in months
plus also having local factories for power-walls to be built on masse

..
the reason why car manufacturers lobbied politicians for 2030 at the earliest is a deeper conversation involving many aspects like:
current leasing terms being 10years
also making the fabricator machines costs alot. but if they wait out 5+ years for other to design them. they can just rent/lease them. meaning save money transitioning
so its about delaying the transition purely to be capitalistic in cost saving
other deeper things are involved like the whole scheme of 'carbon credits'
if they can sell carbon producing cars now and charge people carbon credits
that money then can form grants to pay for the transition without affecting company profits

yep coal and oil refinaries know there is limited unmined resources left that wont be available in 50 years.
so yea they know they have to transition to renewables by 2070 at the latest
so if they can promote that carbon kills the planet and get consumers to pay carbon tax. that tax can be used as grants to pay for the transition to renewables at no cost to the company..
ingenius right..
pretend coal/oil is evil. when reality is they know they are running out of coal/oil anyway

(hint: the real planet killer of human climate change is the water cycle, not the carbon cycle.. rain forests are called rainforests and not carbon forests for a reason)

hers the thing though..
even your 5mb/s
is more then needed to stream HD movies..
far more than a block needs
https://www.download-time.com/
you can download 500mb in 5 minutes
1gb in 10 minutes
10gb in 100 minutes (1hour 40min)
100gb in 1000 minutes (16hours 40min)
300gb in 3000 minutes (under 50 hours)

so even in your less than ideal country only offering 5mb/s
your not waiting weeks to download the blockchain..
(unlike the unoptomised method 7 years ago that felt like weeks to download just under 50gb)
yep things have moved forward in the last 7-12 years

sorry but you are debunking yourself

you said january had 0.6X(with blackouts for a week) and february had 2.x(no blackouts)
so the assumption is normal demand per month without blackout experience would be 2.X

however now
you said its only 3 hours per day throughout the year.. debunked because u said febuary was more then january and now you are saying june is more then february..
kinda impossible to have more in february and even more in just in its only ever 3hours of sunlight
(where do you live... arctic circle?? dark side of the moon)
 
if your going to use a scenario.. stick with it

.. so i was guessing that winter had like 3 hours. and summer had like 8hours
so try to make up your mind.

dont hide stats to make half a case requiring people to guess.. and then cry that they got numbers wrong because you suddenly now want to reveal numbers
,,
anyway if you want to knitpick the exact numbers fine.. be anal
i was trying to play into your small scope of numbers.. purely for conversation..

but disregarding the numbers...the point is.. and the context is this
HAVE MORE CAPACITY THAN DEMAND,. STORE THE EXCESS

as for comparing my belkin surgeprotector+battery backup from 20 years ago as a reason to think things wont work

i guess you are missing the evolutions of battery tech..
yes my 20 . ill highlight TWENTY YEAR OLD backup is good for a fridge, freezer, PC, laptop, cordless phone, wifimodem for 8 hours
so no its not the silly lil phone chargers you pretend it to be
and for under $100 more i could have enough for other household applience of convenience
so not really breaking the bank to save off brownouts

but recent battery backups. like the tesla home charger system are not expensive and can be integrated and priced in with a new build house, oh and they have more capacity than my silly outdated backup

so lets take this example
if i included all meal cooking. deskfans, ventilation, heating, lighting (all normal use stuff) IT devices. kettle kitchen appliences i could consume 2kwh a day myself
so just a tesla powerwall would be good for 7 days
much more then my 8 hours of essentials

so here is the thing
national grids wont have to store all excess power centrally. it can divvy out 7 days excess to peoples own powerwalls and then only need to store the remaining days it captured in summer

and if you think its impossible
well countries spend hundreds of billions making dams to store multiple months of excess winter water for use in summer months
so flip the scenario
they can spend hundreds of billions on storing summer electrical energy for winter

satoshi was one man..
but he took idea's from different elements of the cypherpunks group. and he had people like theymos and hal debug code in the early months.
they all used their own pseudonyms

as for the language. i dont see any purposeful internationalising words. i would just say his spell checker showed the annoying red underline. where the spellcheck changed it to international when he was bothered to right click and take its suggestion

apart from that all signs of buzzwords time format and phrases point to british based language
but a hint of their language does not give any evidence of their physical location.(you know planes can take people anywhere these days)

back then they were worth about $4800 for 800 coins. so lets call it $4k of coins from 2012

i thought the only drama would be on the "satoshi stash" of 2009-2010
or drama over say any date 5000 coins

never thought 2012 under 800(~640) would be noteworthy

ok if people think moving funds under 800coins held from 2012 is drama worthy..
then i have to be a bit more careful with my stash from that era too

it was pretty norm for lots of people to have invested around $4k+ in 2012..


(noting the output format and the 1sat/byte fee)
from the looks of it. he is just moving his funds from legacy to bech32 while the fees are low
basically looks like he is now updated his node software and wants to use the new keyformat without having to pay a high premium that previous months/years would have cost

new build houses cost say $120k... battery backup from belkin is like not even $100
so sell the houses for $120,100..
i dont think house buyers going to cry over a $100 spend when buying a house
..
remember your scenario is "only 3 hours of sunlight"
so yea to cover 24 hours. you need 8x
with some redundancy hense i say 9x

this means in summer that extra 1 produced is going to battery store. and every day for 3 months of summer
so thats then 90*1
so if there is a blackout of 8 per day.. the battery are good for over 11 days based just on the 3 months of last summers excess store

..
ok let me translate that to your latest numbers
the assumption of needing say, in your case the monthly demand is 2.24TWh
which is <0.0031twh per hour
lets imagine in summer there is 8 hours of good prime light
so needing 0.01twh per hour in summer (to be 3x demand to cover instant use and 2x evening and night portions of day)
i know your thinking 'but that would be a dilemma in winter..'
so have 0.0093twh per hour for 8 hours in summer(0.0744 produced)
=0.0031 instant consumed
  0.0031 stored for the 4hours morning and 4 hours afternoon offpeak
  0.0031 stored for the 8hours of night

and store the 0.065twh excess each day for redundancy
so that in the 3 months of summer its storing 5.859TWh (2 months excess for winter)

thats where solutions come about
if a city requires say 8MW a day (0.33mwh per hour)
but only gets 1MW for 3 hours(0.33mwh per hour)  because the sun doesnt shine for 24 hours to get the full 8MW a day

well the simple solution..
have enough solar to produce 3mwh per hour(10x demand) meaning in 3 hours it has enough for 30hours of city demand(9MW). and have battery storage facility to store the spare 8mw not used in that 3 hour of prime daylight

two ways to achieve this
warehouse centrally the battery store
or
have houses that have their own battery system that take on 8x of its 'need' in the 3 hours. so that the house has the excess for the rest of the day.
(much like cars charge up/fill up on fuel in the morning for use the rest of the week)
if your the type of person that only fills a car enough for one hours use and returns to refill with fuel/charge every hour. shame on you

there is no need in 2020 that people need to be connected to a national grid that only creates and supplies in the same minute of its creation

i personally dont have my computer connected direct to the national grid power supply.
i have a battery backup surge protector box that has 8 hours of battery store. inline between my devices and the wall.
(shameless plug, for once) ive had my belkin protector for 20 years and has lifetime warrenty
that way im always with power
UK doesnt suffer from many brownouts or blackouts so some think its unneeded but i have always had it just incase

ive previously lived in apartments with "night storage" heating. they warmup(charge) the bricks at night and slowly release heat during the day

im surprised new housebuilds dont include atleast battery backup as part of the design

seems someone is trying just a little tooo hard to push for excuses not to evolve
residential internet in the 90's was dialup 56kb/s
in the 00's it was 0.5mb/s broadband 10x dialup
in 10's it was 5mb/s adsl 10x broadband

which is where satoshi based his limits in 2010

in 2020 its now 50mb/s fibre/5g
so internet has sped up 10x since satoshi limit. yet the limit has sped up 0x
the transaction count per block has not increased above the proposed 4700tx possibility
we have never had a single day of satoshis proposed 4700tx (7tx/s)

so we are actually performing at minus 2x of potential suggested in 2010
...

no one is screaming the need of 100x by midnight. not even 10x.
but atleast a true progress above the average 2500x tx that we have seen for 12 years

devs deem 4mb(weight) safe and so allowing for full utility of 4x legacy. with no cludgy /4 wall crap. would atleast get things moving to where things should be 12 years into a project

and also including a better fee mechanism would help too
after all devs have made legacy a premium by encoding a 4x treatment of legacy transactions so how about have code for a ?x treatment of transactions under 6 blocks to stop spammers
to segregate/split the spammers from the occassional user

as for the not wanting to store other peoples transactions from 30 years ago (the 2051 scenario mentioned in post above) well dont be a full noder if you dont care about other peoples transactions.
after all what becomes your acceptable value you do "want" to store of other peoples spending habits

is your limit that you only want to have
transactions of 1% of bitcoin price($330 today) be stored in the blockchain
transactions of 0.1% of bitcoin price($33 today)
transactions of 0.01% of bitcoin price($3.30 today)

so do you want "dust" limit raised to 0.0001($3.30 today) to avoid 'coffee spends'
..
lets word your presumption of desire of storage another way
how much would you consider its worth to spend on computer equipment to allow you full node utility for say average PC upgrade period of 5 years

..
if you want to be more biased about unwanted spends.
dont make it about the amount spent
make it about the confirm age
be biased and hate transactions with a UTXO thats only 1-3confirms old being spent
hate spam.. then you might have a talking point worthy of discussion

having a blog to rant issues. gets no results
ends up just being a begging site with a sob story. as most smart people see that the money wont win any lawsuits.
what you need is proof

you dont always need land accessors. you can make your own maps and use drone images from above as comparables
and compare them to land registry details.

as for the blackmail. bribes and threats.
a website listing hearsay quotes is not evidence.. get a recording device. get some voice recordings of malicious conversation. get video of any property tresspass. keep any paper document threats(blackmail letters)
..
if you got no evidence then your just ranting. and not working on a solution

so spend more time learning about getting evidence. not on website rant blogs