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721  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Best Bitcoin Mixer RN? on: July 14, 2021, 11:22:01 AM
Yeah without a shadow of a doubt Chipmixer.

Has been around for very long since the exit of BitMixer from the mixing scene. Has robust advertising which shows you that they are well funded when it comes to their budget. Zero to very little fees.

It has also endured a bunch of attacks and came out of each one with stronger security instead of folding. Definitely worth trusting as an entity imo - don't go with the newer, shadier sites out there that seem like a good idea.
722  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: USA Basketball loss odds on: July 14, 2021, 11:04:10 AM
All books that I looked at had 10+x odds on Nigeria.

I'd actually expect the US to be quite underpriced as favourites going forward. It is clear that they're going to be a lot stronger going forward as they should have been woken up by these two losses. But people tend to have recency bias and think that they're weak.

They're still the best team by far - don't forget that. Anything over 1.1x on them are great odds in the Olympics.
723  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sexy casinos on: July 14, 2021, 07:57:51 AM
Lmao.

Most of these sites are run by non-professionals who just outsource the gaming software to other companies. You get absolutely notorious odds and a cheap experience.

Ultimately, if that's what floats your boat, go for it. But some of the operators in this field are well known for being shady. If you are playing for serious money, don't even bother with any of them.
724  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin ratio of supply on exchanges hits 6 months low on: July 13, 2021, 12:58:31 PM
Definitely a bullish indicator.

Investors aren't like years before where they panic sell straight away when prices go down. The market has matured significantly and institutional investors are much more likely to hold onto their existing positions in times of a bear market.

The actual float of BTC on exchanges is bound to be reduced as a result. I'd estimate it to be no more than 500k coins at any given time.

Definitely expect prices to be a lot more resilient this time round, especially after people have seen the halving cycles go on and on for years now.
725  Economy / Economics / Re: Cybersecurity workers shortage in USA on: July 13, 2021, 12:19:47 PM
Same thing here in Australia.

I've seen LinkedIn ads here hiring for cybersecurity professionals and apparently people could get in with a Bachelor of Arts or a Bachelor of Media Communications. Makes absolutely no sense.

Is this even worthwhile if you are hiring unqualified people imo? Sure, on paper you may seem like an absolute gem of a firm for having 50 staff on hand for cybersecurity related matters, but when you realise that 45 of them had studied English literature and haven't the slightest clue what they're doing, it's a lot less impressive (especially when they're getting paid big time!).
726  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Nigerian government changing the state of lotteries on: July 13, 2021, 11:55:01 AM
Really huge news.

I remember when they first came out with this piece of legislation and I was just thinking about how absurd it was. They were literally passing up millions if not billions in taxation revenue through legal, regulated lotto/casinos to black market operators who will never pay them a dime.

Great move. Although I do wonder what prompted this (I wouldn't rule corruption out of the picture).
727  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling or playing? on: July 13, 2021, 11:20:06 AM
I am sure most of you have played videogames of one short or another and many have noticed that may offer gambling in-game options - I am thinking mostly of Role Games and MMPORGs -  like implementing a casino or some short of fortune game. As an old example, Fallout New Vegas has an in-built game called Caravans, but you can play blackjack, roulette, etc... Newer games that are free to play or cheap to play offer lotteries that award prices such as unique or rare in-game items...

There is currently quite an effort on using these techniques in games that should not be about gambling or chances playing and some people may find undesirable. Is this going too far? What type of effect may this game on underaged players?

I remember that Dragon's Tale used to be quite a popular game where actual BTCs were involved.

I personally think that this is a particular niche. Gamblers can't all be put into one single characterisation - some prefer to play traditional casino games and others like to have a little flair to what they play.

For instance, I could never get around to playing Dragon's Tale because I just wanted to play a game and bet all in first bet without having to go through the fancy storyline or whatnot. But others absolutely swear by it.
728  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What does it take for a game to "hook" people on: July 12, 2021, 12:35:47 PM
I am asking this because I do have some short of an answer for videogames and for massive multiplayer games and even for social network oriented games. Videogames require a great design, good difficulty grading, an story that engages the user, massive multiplayer and network oriented are a lot about the interactions and how varied and fun these are. However, for casino games, it would seem that these factors are not really the most important ones. You can see games with very basic graphics and design, simple in the options for the player and not that engaging yet they do "hook" people in them.
What do these games have to have for you?

Personally, I purely look at whether the odds I get are good or not.

However, I know that for a lot of other people, the graphics and hype around a particular game can be a more significant determinant of whether they play in it or not compared to the expected value they get out of each round.

For instance, the fact that games like fruit party and sweet bonanza were huge hits were not due to the fact that they paid out handsomely. They had quite high volatility, and youtubers on sponsored money would roll until they hit a jackpot and upload the footage, which definitely hooked a lot of people into playing that game.
729  Economy / Economics / Re: Xi Jinping Beats Crypto, Bitcoin Mine Closes on: July 12, 2021, 12:14:07 PM
Lmao. This is the nth time that someone has proclaimed BTC dead.

The truth is that there are probably just as many bitcoin holders in China right now who recognise the issue with the fiat monetary system and the central bank digital currency that the PBoC is trying to push out. Only regulated entities are going down.

A lot of miners and holders are unregulated, unregistered, and completely away from the prying eyes of the government no matter how hard they look - that's the beauty of a decentralised asset like BTC.
730  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Will Cardano overthrow Ethereum? on: July 12, 2021, 11:28:16 AM
Honestly don't see it happening.

Cardano is as much a marketing job as it is an actually useful coin given the fact that its biggest selling point seems to be its academically accredited whitepaper and development team. With the crypto space evolving at such rapid speeds, is it really possible for them to remain alone in that category?

It's the same story with ETH vs BTC. People have predicted a flippening for years but it has never happened - it is simply due to the fact that they fill completely different usage cases.
731  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: have you ever play or won from a crypto exchange lottery? on: July 12, 2021, 08:54:15 AM
I won a decent amount from the freebitco.in faucet, if you could call that an exchange.

Most actual centralised exchanges won't ever offer anything remotely close to a gambling game. If they did, their licenses would probably be revoked and regulators would shut them overnight.

You'll only see these games with very bad odds generally floating around either decentralised exchanges or unregulated pseudo-exchanges like freebitco.in. Usually, they're not worth playing or entering if there is a monetary buy in. If it's free to enter then it's a separate issue.
732  Economy / Gambling / Re: Duelbits Self Exclusion NOT Honored on: July 12, 2021, 08:29:45 AM
I personally disagree with some people's sentiment that the site should hold no responsibility.

They definitely do, and in this case, they are somewhat at fault.

But do I think that they should be liable to compensate OP fully for the losses? Absolutely not. The maximum that OP should get is some pity money to say sorry we screwed up and not any sizeable compensation that is close to a full refund. Nor does the casino have any incentive to do so given that they would set a terrible precedent for people in the future to exploit.
733  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The most profitable gambling strategies, what are they? on: July 12, 2021, 04:45:07 AM
I know that strategy will only help us have a better chance of winning something from gambling. But in the end I dare say that no strategy will benefit us in the long term.

Of the many strategies I have used, I have never managed to win more than $200 during a playing session. I'm sure you all have different experiences with me because maybe you have a different gambling style than me. In the short term, can you tell me what strategy managed to make you win over $200 over the course of the game?

If you are going for purely short term profits, then probably just go max-bet, all in. If you win, get out straight away.

Autobetting with any particular strategy thousands of rolls is simply going to get you to mean revert more likely than not. You're simply not going to overcome that fat -EV that you are subject to - and the more rolls you do, the less variance you have from that -EV figure.

In the long run, the only sustainable way of making money would be through advantage play - i.e., card counting or playing games optimally with +EV. But that is generally not possible with online casinos.
734  Economy / Invites & Accounts / Re: Buying old verified Blockchain.com accounts before 2020. on: July 09, 2021, 11:24:12 AM
What's the point of buying these accounts? Why do you need them to be verified?
735  Economy / Collectibles / Re: [WTS] various silver coins on: July 09, 2021, 08:16:41 AM
Wow, these are absolutely gorgeous!

What are the premiums on these?
736  Economy / Economics / Re: Jeff Bezos and many top amazon executives leave in mass exodus on: July 07, 2021, 02:28:29 AM
Given the fact that their business model virtually depends on low tax environments, it could be a possibility.

But it seems to me that Bezos is probably just more interested in his other ventures right now compared to Amazon which has been around for decades. Of course Blue Origin's race with Virgin Galactic at this point in his career is probably more significant to him.

Also, don't forget that the 15% global corporate tax is probably not going to change things substantially - it's way too low of a minimum to be binding in any strong sense.
737  Economy / Economics / Re: A message from my bank saying they will not allow me to purchase from Binance on: July 07, 2021, 01:14:07 AM
I got a message from my UK bank saying they will no longer allow payments from debit/ credit cards to Binance.  This is all to do with the UK FCA ban but I thought it was not going to affect us being able to use the Binance.com site, seems I was wrong  Binance will loose a lot of UK revenue if they do not become FCA regulated like Coinbase has done Sad

Nothing you can do about it, unfortunately.

The ban isn't up to the bank to decide. It's from the government and banks are more than willing to comply given the fact that BTC poses a risk to replacing some of their transaction businesses to begin with.

I got a message from my UK bank saying they will no longer allow payments from debit/ credit cards to Binance.  This is all to do with the UK FCA ban but I thought it was not going to affect us being able to use the Binance.com site, seems I was wrong  Binance will loose a lot of UK revenue if they do not become FCA regulated like Coinbase has done Sad



https://www.binance.co.uk/

Binance is currently applying for FCA approval which will be incorporated into its UK website (link posted above).

Services should become available once regulatory terms are met.

Source:  https://twitter.com/binance/status/1409229417415680008

I'm surprised at the crackdown on the part of the UK. There has been so much negative publicity and capital flight with UK finance post #brexit. I thought they'd jump at the chance at expanding business through deregulated crypto.

That's good to hear, but honestly no one should be counting on Binance re-emerging in the UK any time soon.

But that's the beauty of BTC - failures can only occur to third party centralised services and not p2p trading or the BTC network itself. There are still plenty of alternative exchanges you can use, or even OTC trading.
738  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Bybit to tighten their KYC procedures starting 12th July 2021 on: July 07, 2021, 12:24:40 AM
Will this be the start of KYC on exchanges like Binance as well?

Given the similarity of the structure of these verification requirements between Bybit and Binance (2 BTC verification free threshold), it does seem like a precursor to Binance doing something similar.

Also, haven't we heard already that certain people are getting forced to undertake KYC at Bybit? There was a thread that is in service discussions that seems to suggest 12 BTCs have been locked out. Definitely a good time to withdraw funds from this exchange while you still can, before they go full draconian mode.
739  Economy / Economics / Re: Never seen before OCDE pact for 15% minimum global corporate tax on: July 07, 2021, 12:06:46 AM
It's more for show than anything else.

As you said, most tax havens have tax rates of 15%+. And if they don't then they will probably readily oppose the proposal, in which case, what are the OECD countries going to do? The worst they can do is financial sanctions and I doubt that it would be very effective given that taxation revenue is what fuels these tax havens in the first place.

But you're right, it is a step in the right direction. I doubt it's enough, though.
740  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Prices and Transaction Volumes After Difficulty Change on: July 06, 2021, 11:28:38 PM
...

As I write there are 22 blocks until the Difficulty changes, it looks like it will be around a 28% drop, the biggest change in BTC history IIRC.  That should be roughly 1:00 AM (US Eastern Time).  I will be curious to see how the prices and BTC transaction volume change.  If either prices or volumes would NOT change after such a large drop, then perhaps difficulty changes would mean very little on their own.

BTC price has been in the $33,xxx for the past two days.

Anyone want to weigh in?

I would say that it has virtually no weighting on its own.

Macro trends regarding regulation and institutional adoption still dominate this space. As jackg mentioned, as long as there is no security risks to the network there shouldn't be anything that has fundamentally changed about bitcoin.

Prices are probably going to remain in the $30k-40k corridor in the foreseeable future as we consolidate after the rallies. Don't see any big swings either way.
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